Post election prediction

[FunkyDexter]

Like it or not, Iran definitely qualify as "bad guys". They've financed the overwhelming bulk of terrorism in the region including Hezbollah, Hams, Yemeni militias and so on. I do find it hard to summon up much sympathy for the regime (though I do feel for the populace who generally seem to be quite moderate from my limited experience). Thing is, I find it equally difficult to summon up sympathy for the Israeli government. When your looking at both sides and thinking "you're both basically genocidal", what position do you take? "Would you mind stopping that?" doesn't seem to cut it.

I think Niya said upthread that this could be WW3. I don't think that's quite right but I do think that 1. America and possibly other Western nations could get drawn in and 2. Nuclear weapons could get used, though probably tactical rather than strategic. If that's your definition for WW3 then it could be met.

1. America is clearly getting drawn in already. Trump's tweets and Israel's need for bunker busters which only the US can provide sure feel like that's the direction of momentum. Given their recent actions, I don't think many other Western nations will support Israel at the moment though that calculus would change rapidly if Iran deployed some kind of nuclear weapon. I think there's a higher chance of Western Nations supporting the US if they're drawn in as a proxy. Trump has blown A LOT of the goodwill toward the US but I think the historical inertia still has considerable gravity - I think we still view you as an ally, if an unreliable one.

2. Iran won't deploy nuclear weapons because they're strong, they'll do it because they're weak. Israel may be small but their military capability massively outstrips Iran's. Iran has lost it's proxy allies in Hezbollah and Hamas and Russia is no longer in any position to support them so they're basically isolated. I can't see any way they can prevail through conventional means and, given that Israel seems hell bent on regime change, it's hard to see any argument for why Iran would not deploy whatever nuclear capability they've got.