Post election prediction

[Niya]

By the way, before you take it too literally, I don't mean to say that the QAnon Shaman is going to overthrow the government himself. I'm using him as the template to represent the kinds of people that were there that day. Normal rank and file Americans who let their emotions get out of control, hardly a group capable of a coup or insurrection, much less against the most powerful union of states on the planet.

[dilettante]

Seriously people? You really are on the wrong side of the reality-distortion field.

"The Left is Selling Chaos. America Isn’t Buying."

[FunkyDexter]

Really? You're reduced to citing the Daily Signal?

Bias and Reliability.

You've fallen down a far right rabbit hole.

[Niya]

This just showed up on my Twitter feed:-


Looks like WW3 is about to start.

[dilettante]

"The NGO known as CHIRLA was centrally involved in the LA riots. The organization, which has previously sponsored a campaign to abolish ICE, alerted the rioters to where ICE operations were occurring in real time. The agitators would then show up and disrupt ICE activities, including through the use of violence," Kiley said.

"This group is a major campaign contributor to Gavin Newsom and has received $34 million in state funding. An investigation is absolutely appropriate and necessary."

IRS records obtained by Fox News show CHIRLA has received $34 million in government grants, including three from former President Joe Biden's administration for $750,000.

This goes far, far beyond anything related to January 6th.

[dilettante]

Really? You're reduced to citing the Daily Signal?

As usual, discrediting the messenger when there is no defense against the message. This is a core losing strategy of the extreme left.

[wes4dbt]

Looks like WW3 is about to start.

Why a World War???

[wes4dbt]

"The NGO known as CHIRLA was centrally involved in the LA riots. The organization, which has previously sponsored a campaign to abolish ICE, alerted the rioters to where ICE operations were occurring in real time. The agitators would then show up and disrupt ICE activities, including through the use of violence," Kiley said.

I wouldn't doubt they were involved in the protests, immigration issues are why they were formed. Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights in LA. As for the riots an being agitators I would need more than an unsupported claim by someone named Kiley.

"This group is a major campaign contributor to Gavin Newsom and has received $34 million in state funding. An investigation is absolutely appropriate and necessary."

IRS records obtained by Fox News show CHIRLA has received $34 million in government grants, including three from former President Joe Biden's administration for $750,000.

I'm not interested in verifying the numbers. But even if they're correct, what is the problem? They were establish in 1986, that's less than a million a year, not unusual amount of government grants/funding.

This goes far, far beyond anything related to January 6th.

I don't know what you mean by "This". Are you talking about what happened in LA a few days ago or are you still talking about CHIRLA?

Either way, I don't see why January 6th is relevant. Are you trying to justify Jan 6th? Why would you need to do that if it was just, "a protest outside the Capitol".

[Niya]

Why a World War???

This isn't Ukraine and Russia. Lets not beat around the bush about this, America and NATO don't give two shits about Ukraine. They're just using that poor country as a pawn in a big pissing contest with Russia and also to fuel America's military industrial complex. It's just business. But you know who America does care about? Israel.

Israel has launched a direct strike against a sovereign nation—and not just any nation, but one with real power: Iran. I can’t imagine a scenario where Iran doesn’t respond. If they don’t, they risk being seen as a paper tiger, which would severely weaken their influence on the global stage. A response seems inevitable. Maybe someone can come up with a way for them to save face without retaliating, but I can’t see how.

Once Iran does respond, U.S. involvement is almost guaranteed—this is Israel we’re talking about. From there, the dominoes start to fall. NATO could be drawn in, which would likely provoke their adversaries to act as well. No one can say exactly how it will unfold, but one thing’s certain: it would be chaos on a scale the world hasn’t seen in generations.

I sincerely hope I’m wrong.

[wes4dbt]

This isn't Ukraine and Russia. Lets not beat around the bush about this, America and NATO don't give two shits about Ukraine. They're just using that poor country as a pawn in a big pissing contest with Russia and also to fuel America's military industrial complex. It's just business. But you know who America does care about? Israel.

Israel has launched a direct strike against a sovereign nation—and not just any nation, but one with real power: Iran. I can’t imagine a scenario where Iran doesn’t respond. If they don’t, they risk being seen as a paper tiger, which would severely weaken their influence on the global stage. A response seems inevitable. Maybe someone can come up with a way for them to save face without retaliating, but I can’t see how.

Once Iran does respond, U.S. involvement is almost guaranteed—this is Israel we’re talking about. From there, the dominoes start to fall. NATO could be drawn in, which would likely provoke their adversaries to act as well. No one can say exactly how it will unfold, but one thing’s certain: it would be chaos on a scale the world hasn’t seen in generations.

I sincerely hope I’m wrong.

Iran already has responded. Israel has attacked Iran many times in the past, then Iran responds, then nothing changes. The US has always supported Israel but only from the sidelines. Not sure how much support Israel actually needs. Lately they have been attacking several countries in the region and no one has wanted to do more than show a token response. It's been fairly surprising to me, the lack of response from the various countries Israel has attacked.

It does feel like Israel is pushing it's luck. If it does turn into a full scales war, I'm not sure what level of involvement the US or NATO would have. I'm not sure which NATO adversaries would get involved. Russia sure couldn't get very involved, they're barely keeping their head above water in Ukraine. China got a long history not getting involved. North Korea, not sure what they could do, already helping Russia.

But your right, no one knows how these things will unfold.

[sapator]

The "problem" is that Iran do not have powerful allies, not just help from the sidelines but go on war.
So there is a very slim change of escalation. Most Muslim countries around are Sunni or the other thing Sheit something like that and Iran the opposite so there is not help there. As wes said Russia and China might help on the sidelines but not involve and US might bring a boat or 2 but that is about it.
So hopefully it won't go to WWIII as I'm starting my vacations soon

Edit, also do not count on NATO the bunch of warkers .

[TysonLPrice]

This goes far, far beyond anything related to January 6th.

Only because you refuse to understand what happened. The overthrow was organized months before it occurred with careful coordination across the country. You beliefs go far, far beyond reality.

[TysonLPrice]

"Trump Shifts Deportation Focus, Pausing Raids on Farms, Hotels and Eateries"

I guess some immigrants aren't as bad as others..

[wes4dbt]

"Trump Shifts Deportation Focus, Pausing Raids on Farms, Hotels and Eateries"

I guess some immigrants aren't as bad as others..

Now if he could just change his stance on violating peoples civil rights.

The tariffs have shown Trump will reverse course if there is enough blow back from his supporters. That's good but he is only solving a problem he created.

[FunkyDexter]

discrediting the messenger

I don't need to discredit the messenger when it's the Daily Signal. You might as well get your news from the Beano. Mind you, the Bash Street Kids could probably have done a better job than DOGE.


So it looks like his Big Beautiful Parade has been as big a washout as his Big Beautiful Bill.


BIG protests though.

[Shaggy Hiker]

This isn't Ukraine and Russia. Lets not beat around the bush about this, America and NATO don't give two shits about Ukraine. They're just using that poor country as a pawn in a big pissing contest with Russia and also to fuel America's military industrial complex. It's just business. But you know who America does care about? Israel.

Israel has launched a direct strike against a sovereign nation—and not just any nation, but one with real power: Iran. I can’t imagine a scenario where Iran doesn’t respond. If they don’t, they risk being seen as a paper tiger, which would severely weaken their influence on the global stage. A response seems inevitable. Maybe someone can come up with a way for them to save face without retaliating, but I can’t see how.

Once Iran does respond, U.S. involvement is almost guaranteed—this is Israel we’re talking about. From there, the dominoes start to fall. NATO could be drawn in, which would likely provoke their adversaries to act as well. No one can say exactly how it will unfold, but one thing’s certain: it would be chaos on a scale the world hasn’t seen in generations.

I sincerely hope I’m wrong.

I share your concerns over this, but I do think you are wrong about one point in it. Under any other president, I think US involvement would be almost guaranteed. Trump seems unlikely to want to be directly involved. He's willing to do things that take a day or two, but any longer term commitment appears to be of no interest to him.

One thing could be pretty interesting, though. Trump isn't much of a negotiator, but he has shown repeatedly that if somebody is dumb enough to put their balls in his hand, he's smart enough to squeeze them. Netanyahu may have just made that mistake.

[TysonLPrice]

"Trump Shifts Deportation Focus, Pausing Raids on Farms, Hotels and Eateries"

I guess some immigrants aren't as bad as others..

Oops...backtracked

Officials from Immigration and Customs Enforcement, including its Homeland Security Investigations division, told agency leaders in a call Monday that agents must continue conducting immigration raids at agricultural businesses, hotels and restaurants, according to two people familiar with the call. The new instructions were shared in an 11 a.m. call to representatives from 30 field offices across the country.

[Peter Porter]

I seriously thought American service men and women at last weekend's Army parade were all going to march like they did on Bastille Day in 2017, in Paris:



Some did, but not all. They probably were all locked in stepped to begin with, but by the time they were within Trump's viewing range, some groups were out of step.

What totally irked me was the commercialization of the whole thing, when the announcer mentioned Coinbase, UFC, Phorn energy drink, and others as sponsors of the parade. It came off like a side hustle to make money off an event.

[TysonLPrice]

I seriously thought American service men and women at last weekend's Army parade were all going to march like they did on Bastille Day in 2017, in Paris:



Some did, but not all. They probably were all locked in stepped to begin with, but by the time they were within Trump's viewing range, some groups were out of step.

What totally irked me was the commercialization of the whole thing, when the announcer mentioned Coinbase, UFC, Phorn energy drink, and others as sponsors of the parade. It came off like a side hustle to make money off an event.

Here are a few businesses that chipped in and I imagine want something back:

Bell Textron
Wounded Warrior Project
Walmart
GOVX
Leonardo DRS
RTX Corporation
Lockheed Martin
Leidos
Armed Forces Mutual
Boeing
First Command
General Electric Aerospace
T-Mobile
King George
InterContinental Hotels Group
The NFL
Oracle
UFC
Coinbase
Palantir
Amazon
Exiger
Scott's Miracle Gro
Phorm Energy
FedEx

[FunkyDexter]

I'm kinda 50/50 on that. I think the whole parade thing was a massive white elephant but, if we're going to accept that it was happening, then we need to find a satisfactory way to pay for it. If the private sector didn't act as sponsors then the whole burden would have fallen on the tax payer and we'd have been criticising Trump for that instead. I don't think I've really got a problem with it as long as it's transparent.

I'm trying to think if there's a precedent. Obviously private companies sponsor e.g. sporting events. I can't think of a "government" event that's been sponsored in the way but I'm sure there must have been some.

[Shaggy Hiker]

What I'm curious about is that Trump wanted this parade in his first term and people pointed out that the streets in Washington are not designed to handle the weight of tanks. That doesn't appear to have changed. An Abrams weighs about twice what those roads are designed to carry, from my understanding of it. Were there side effects?

[wes4dbt]

With my twisted sense of humor, when I saw photos of the parade I started laughing because there were police officers lining the routine to protect our military. It just struck me as funny. The reality of why they were there took a while to sink in.

All in all, it was just one of those over emphasized (pro and con) events of no real consequence.

[wes4dbt]

Trump does want countries to surrender quickly, Ukraine, Palestinians and now Iran. Also telling the people of Tehran to evacuate, wonder where 10 million people could go. Maybe Trump has plans for another resort like in Gaza.

It looks like sapator was right about Iran not being liked. I haven't seen anyone stepping up to defend Iran. Even though it was attacked by Israel. Israel has it's stock excuse "stop the nuclear weapons". Of course, Iran makes it easy to side with Israel, when some there call for "death to all Israeli's".

You think things are bad here and they are worse than normal, but when you look around the world, it doesn't seem to dire here. It would help if people wouldn't rage about everything. But that does seem to be the norm.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I have heard that in Iran, the "death to..." phrase is pretty much like "screw <whatever>" in the US (or a slight different version). We don't mean it as a literal instruction (or at least most people don't mean it literally), it's just a figure of speech.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I saw some video from the parade which had Sherman tanks. Since the Sherman is roughly half the weight of an Abrams, was that done to spare the roads? Were there Abrams tanks?

And what about the dog?

[wes4dbt]

I have heard that in Iran, the "death to..." phrase is pretty much like "screw <whatever>" in the US (or a slight different version). We don't mean it as a literal instruction (or at least most people don't mean it literally), it's just a figure of speech.

Yeah, they chant the same thing about Americans. They do fund a lot of anti Israeli military groups. They would definitely like bad things to happen to Israel. I don't know how widely held that feeling is or if it's mainly driven by the government.

Iran just makes it so easy to dislike them.

[FunkyDexter]

Like it or not, Iran definitely qualify as "bad guys". They've financed the overwhelming bulk of terrorism in the region including Hezbollah, Hams, Yemeni militias and so on. I do find it hard to summon up much sympathy for the regime (though I do feel for the populace who generally seem to be quite moderate from my limited experience). Thing is, I find it equally difficult to summon up sympathy for the Israeli government. When your looking at both sides and thinking "you're both basically genocidal", what position do you take? "Would you mind stopping that?" doesn't seem to cut it.

I think Niya said upthread that this could be WW3. I don't think that's quite right but I do think that 1. America and possibly other Western nations could get drawn in and 2. Nuclear weapons could get used, though probably tactical rather than strategic. If that's your definition for WW3 then it could be met.

1. America is clearly getting drawn in already. Trump's tweets and Israel's need for bunker busters which only the US can provide sure feel like that's the direction of momentum. Given their recent actions, I don't think many other Western nations will support Israel at the moment though that calculus would change rapidly if Iran deployed some kind of nuclear weapon. I think there's a higher chance of Western Nations supporting the US if they're drawn in as a proxy. Trump has blown A LOT of the goodwill toward the US but I think the historical inertia still has considerable gravity - I think we still view you as an ally, if an unreliable one.

2. Iran won't deploy nuclear weapons because they're strong, they'll do it because they're weak. Israel may be small but their military capability massively outstrips Iran's. Iran has lost it's proxy allies in Hezbollah and Hamas and Russia is no longer in any position to support them so they're basically isolated. I can't see any way they can prevail through conventional means and, given that Israel seems hell bent on regime change, it's hard to see any argument for why Iran would not deploy whatever nuclear capability they've got.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Like it or not, Iran definitely qualify as "bad guys". They've financed the overwhelming bulk of terrorism in the region including Hezbollah, Hams,

Hams are only a regional terror, and that's largely because of the dietary rules of the groups that inhabit the area. It's like they're bacon in the sun over there.

I don't think the US will be drawn in the way it was drawn into Iraq. It sure does sound like we'll get involved, but probably only to the extent of some aerial attacks that will stop once Iran offers Trump a bunch of shiny baubles stacked up. I don't think one will do. Considering the region, I expect they'll need to offer him a tower of bauble.

[FunkyDexter]

Damn you, autocorrect. It's turned me into an antisemite!

True story: A while back I was in a Star Wars conversation on WhatsApp. I wrote "I blame the Jedi". Autocorrect changed Jedi to Jews. Not my finest hour.

[sapator]

If Iran is financing Hams then Turkey is the godfather and a lot more and they are trying to start a nuclear program also.
So, I don't know...Let's take Constantinople back? But with our sold our slugdogs and NATO triangle cubists we are more opt to be speaking Turkish the years to come.

[Shaggy Hiker]

You are combining Ham and Turkey??? Were you just ducking other meats, or were you too chicken to add them? Either way, it sounds fishy and so I have a beef with you!

[wes4dbt]

Iran won't deploy nuclear weapons because they're strong, they'll do it because they're weak.

It sounds as if you think Iran has a secret stash of nuclear weapons. Maybe that's why they didn't unconditionally surrender when Trump told them they should.

It sure does sound like we'll get involved, but probably only to the extent of some aerial attacks that will stop once Iran offers Trump a bunch of shiny baubles stacked up

Trump yo-yos so much that I don't even try to figure out what he's going to actually do. If the US does get involved my guess would pretty much match your guess.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Trump doesn't so much yo-yo as bluster, then chicken out. He has no stomach for a prolonged engagement, whether military or anything else, unless it keeps the focus on him. This won't keep the focus on him, so he won't stick with it. If we had boots on the ground, the media would be talking about that, so it won't happen unless those boots can be off the ground quickly.

I do think he'd be willing to bomb some place, or provide munitions for Israel to bomb some place. I don't believe he'd be willing to do more than that. Had he been in charge when Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, he would have authorized the Doolittle Raid, then spent all of his time focusing on interning Japanese people.

[sapator]

You are combining Ham and Turkey??? Were you just ducking other meats, or were you too chicken to add them? Either way, it sounds fishy and so I have a beef with you!

Lol. Actually they are called something else now Turki-ye or something. They predicted a Shaggy pun.

[sapator]

It sounds as if you think Iran has a secret stash of nuclear weapons. Maybe that's why they didn't unconditionally surrender when Trump told them they should.

That reminds me of an AC/DC song... Cuz I'm T.N.T. oil oil oil.

[Niya]

Iran already has responded. Israel has attacked Iran many times in the past, then Iran responds, then nothing changes.

This feels different somehow. It could be the sheer amount of information available compared to back in the day when we couldn't get information independantly of the traditional gatekeepers, ie corporate media. It feels a lot more real than it has in the past when such incidents got relagated to a 5 minute segment on CNN in between "more important" news in fashion and business.

The US has always supported Israel but only from the sidelines. Not sure how much support Israel actually needs.

Israel has burnt up a lot of goodwill around the world with its genocidal behavior in Gaza, and unlike in the past, they and their allies cannot hide their crimes anymore. In the wake of their retaliation for Oct 7, Twitter and TikTok got absolutely flooded with videos of the horrific devastation in Gaza. We saw graphic images of dead children burnt to a crisp, with limbs blown off and just about any other gory detail you can imagine. Everyone around the world finally got to see what actually goes on in Gaza when the fighting starts. We've never had that before.

The US has to be extra careful with the optics on this. The world is watching very closely now.

It's been fairly surprising to me, the lack of response from the various countries Israel has attacked.

I'm guessing everyone is hesitating because of the US. Trump since before the election has made it very clear he is a huge supporter of Israel. I don't think anyone is in a hurry to set off that potential landmine. Trump's unconditional support of Israel is one of the few things I utterly dislike about his foreign policy. I get that Oct 7 was horrific but what Israel is doing in response is evil.

It does feel like Israel is pushing it's luck.

They are, but like I said, they got the big bad US of A behind them so unless the US decides enough is enough, they will have free reign to do whatever they want.

If it does turn into a full scales war, I'm not sure what level of involvement the US or NATO would have.

Article 5 of NATO's defense pact will probably determine that. So far, we can be thankful that Israel is not a member of NATO because if they were, Article 5 would have been triggered and we'd be in WW3 already. However, the US is a member so my guess is NATO's involment would be determined by the US.

I'm not sure which NATO adversaries would get involved. Russia sure couldn't get very involved, they're barely keeping their head above water in Ukraine. China got a long history not getting involved. North Korea, not sure what they could do, already helping Russia.

I agree, though I do not think Russia is weak by any stretch.

I believe that both Russia and China are sleeping giants. They won't show their hand under these conditions. If any of them were directly attacked, I think the world would be in for a huge shock.

[Niya]

I share your concerns over this, but I do think you are wrong about one point in it. Under any other president, I think US involvement would be almost guaranteed. Trump seems unlikely to want to be directly involved. He's willing to do things that take a day or two, but any longer term commitment appears to be of no interest to him.

One thing could be pretty interesting, though. Trump isn't much of a negotiator, but he has shown repeatedly that if somebody is dumb enough to put their balls in his hand, he's smart enough to squeeze them. Netanyahu may have just made that mistake.

I think you're absolutely right about this.

Trump is in a very difficult position here. He has to find a way to support Israel while they are committing genocide in Gaza. Being Israel's ally isn't a good look right now. Unfortunately for Trump, he shoots from the hip, so to speak. He doesn't have the underhanded guile and tact of a Democrat. The Democrats would have surely found a way to sell the idea that Israel isn't evil which would have allowed them to more openly support them. As much as I give liberal a lot of ****, I do recognize that they have an exceptional talent for manipulating language for the purpose of spin. The would have also had the support of the media, something Trump doesn't have. He has to be extremely careful how he handles Israel. If he misteps on this, he'll be eaten alive.

[Niya]

On a lighter note, I just came across this on Twitter and couldn't help but burst out laughing:-


At least people haven't lost their sense of humor in these troubled times. I love it

[wes4dbt]

I do think he'd be willing to bomb some place, or provide munitions for Israel to bomb some place.

The bomb needed to penetrate Iran's main unground nuclear facility can only be delivered by the B-2. That means it's up to the US. It could also take several strikes, no one seems real sure.

Israel makes it sound like that would solve the problem but it wont. You can't bomb the knowledge out of existence. It would set Iran's program back, that's all. Depending on what and how much Iran has stored at the site there is a real danger of causing some major environmental problems.

It's not a simple problem, I don't know the answers.

[FunkyDexter]

It sounds as if you think Iran has a secret stash of nuclear weapons.

At this stage I honestly don't know. Netanyahu says they do but he's been saying that since the 80s - kind of smack of the Weapons of Mass Destruction rhetoric that was used to justify the invasion of Iraq. The bulk of intelligence coming out of the rest of the worlds agencies seems to indicate they don't have an active weapons program. On the other hand, they were definitely enriching uranium beyond the levels required for a domestic energy program so it feels like the intent was there even if delivery capability was lacking.

My hunch is that they lack the sort of capability that would be required to e.g. launch a missile but I think they could perhaps deliver a dirty bomb.