Post election prediction

[Peter Porter]

I lost a good army buddy of mine to COVID three years ago. He didn’t get the shots because he also thought it was a hoax. Since the beginning of the pandemic, he would share something on his Facebook account once a month that he thought proved it, until he got sick. His wife told me he lost two coworkers because of it.

[dilettante]

Parroting media-fed slogans is not a substitute for thinking. We've already seen that when the "protestors" this weekend were interviewed and proved dumber than a rock no matter where you turned.

There is now a long list of countries rushing to the table to negotiate trade, including Starmer. He himself is slated to speak and pronounce that globalization is a failed experiment, and over.

Keir Starmer to admit globalisation has failed as tariff war rages
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics...ages-s00b6wbcj

A Downing Street official said: “Trump has done something that we don’t agree with but there’s a reason why people are behind him on this. The world has changed, globalisation is over and we are now in a new era. We’ve got to demonstrate that our approach, a more active Labour government, a more reformist government, can provide the answers for people in every part of this country.”

[Niya]

Let me be absolutely clear about what I mean when I say it was a hoax. I am NOT speaking of the disease itself, I am speaking about the inappropriate amount of fear stoked by the powers that be over it. I remember when Bird Flu and Swine Flu were sweeping across the world. In those cases, the response was appropriate relative to the threat. There were no mask mandates, social distancing hysteria, threats of work place termination, jail time, curfews, stiff fines or restrictions on movement. The hoax was the manufactured hysteria behind it.

BTW I lost the first best friend I ever had to Covid. That one really hurt. You guys aren't to only ones to lose people to Covid.

[wes4dbt]

BTW I lost the first best friend I ever had to Covid. That one really hurt. You guys aren't to only ones to lose people to Covid.

No one claimed they were the only one to lose people to COVID. Our posts were in response to this,

So yea, COVID was a hoax, one of the greatest hoaxes of the 21st century.

A poor choice of words if this is what you were talking about,

I am NOT speaking of the disease itself, I am speaking about the inappropriate amount of fear stoked by the powers that be over it.

That's quite a different issue.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I do think that when it first showed up, there was a whole lot of misunderstanding. That's going to happen with anything new. Originally, it was thought that it would survive on surfaces, until it turned out that it didn't.

One thing about the response was that there was a bit of a game plan for airborne infectious diseases. The response implemented were things that were not expected to work all that well (aside from isolation, which works, but has some severe negative consequences for people who don't go off wandering through the woods for months at a time).

Still, what WOULD work? I think COVID showed that we are flat out doomed if a more serious illness shows up. There will be a massive wave of denial and misinformation until the zombie virus has taken over the bulk of the world.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Parroting media-fed slogans is not a substitute for thinking. We've already seen that when the "protestors" this weekend were interviewed and proved dumber than a rock no matter where you turned.

If that's what you look for, that's what you'll find regardless of the grouping. There have been videos about stupid people as long as there have been videos. I see no point in those videos and have always assumed that they were essentially either, "the other side is dumb" or, "this segment of the population is dumb." I suppose those are the same thing, just different segmentation. The videos are worthless. Everybody is dumb at times and everybody is dumb on some topics (not the same topics for each person). If the goal is to mock people for being ignorant, all you have to do is be selective in what you ask and how you edit the film.

[Shaggy Hiker]

COVID opened my eyes to something called the appeal to authority fallacy. Before this, I had not realized that nearly all of the truths we cling to as members of human societies are not backed by rigorous investigation but by the whims of the many experts we've been taught to trust from the time we could speak.

You have to do that, at times. There isn't enough time in your life to fully investigate everything. That guarantees that you will have opinions based on inadequate information, but even worse, it guarantees that you will have opinions based on what you THINK is adequate information, though it is actually inadequate.

[TysonLPrice]

President’s Third Term Talk Defies Constitution and Tests Democracy

The 22nd Amendment is clear: President Trump has to give up his office after his second term. But his refusal to accept that underscores how far he is willing to consider going to consolidate power.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/u...stitution.html

[PlausiblyDamp]

You have to do that, at times. There isn't enough time in your life to fully investigate everything. That guarantees that you will have opinions based on inadequate information, but even worse, it guarantees that you will have opinions based on what you THINK is adequate information, though it is actually inadequate.

Completely agree, I think the current attitude of watching a couple of 10 minute youtube videos is somehow enough information to feel your opinion is just as good as an expert who has studied and worked in a specific area for 20+ years is causing a lot of poorly informed decisions.

Just look at the increase in measles cases in parts of America since the increasing rise in anti-vax propaganda.

[TysonLPrice]

Completely agree, I think the current attitude of watching a couple of 10 minute youtube videos is somehow enough information to feel your opinion is just as good as an expert who has studied and worked in a specific area for 20+ years is causing a lot of poorly informed decisions.

Just look at the increase in measles cases in parts of America since the increasing rise in anti-vax propaganda.

And what a horrible start we will be off to in the next pandemic. But maybe there will be a "Darwin Effect", and the one after that one won't be as bad

[Shaggy Hiker]

Even years of study isn't enough. I think back to a time when I thought I understood the system dynamics of some vegetation in the Everglades. As chance would have it, I had never been out there during a certain few weeks which happened generally in July. Once I got my hands on the dataset from an hourly data recorder, I realized that my understanding of the system was completely wrong. A freshwater system would become a salt water system at full ocean salinity, stay that way for just a week or two, then revert to freshwater. It happened once a year for such a narrow window that I had managed to never see it, despite being out there almost every month for the preceding three years. That exposure would utterly change the plant composition, a change which I had mistakenly attributed to other factors.

We simply don't know what we don't know, and we don't know whether our understanding would be utterly turned on it's head, or just somewhat revised by gaining new data.

[Niya]

A poor choice of words if this is what you were talking about.

That's quite a different issue.

Whoa whoa whoa, pause for a cause.....Did you seriously think the "critics" like myself were denying that COVID exists all this time? Is that what you thought? Oh My

You have to do that, at times. There isn't enough time in your life to fully investigate everything.

This is true. However, we must still make a decision hence we tend to rely on adequate information which greatly depends on our own motivations and much more importantly, our own anecdotal experience.

Now, you've discounted anecdotal experience as unimportant but I think you're wrong about this. I think this is the most important source of information one could have. Your own experiences is the most reliable source of information you could ever have. If you were abducted by aliens, it wouldn't matter how many experts said there isn't life on other planets, the fact is that your anecdotal experience has given you a definite answer which has managed to elude the experts studying the matter for 40 years is nothing trivial.

That guarantees that you will have opinions based on inadequate information

This is true across the board thus it applies to the "experts" trying to convince you of something. Also, with regard to inadequate information, we often don't consider what I realize now is the most important piece of information, the motivations of the ones trying to convince you. If you're deciding whether to believe if something someone is telling you is true and you'd don't understand their motivation, you are making a decision based on inadequate information, even if the person trying to convince you is an expert in whatever it is they are talking about. My point here is that every decision you make almost without exception is based on incomplete information. We take a lot more than we realize on faith.

-------

Now, none of this is to say that one shouldn't trust third party sources of information. I'd say that the other extreme, trusting no one is equally as bad as trusting blinding. I am advocating for people to stop and really think about what they are being told. Ask yourself if what you're being told makes sense. Ask about the motivations of the people claiming to tell you the truth. Consider your own anecdotal experiences to see if they align with what you're being told. I think this simple cocktail is a potent enough mixture to avoid a lot of deception especially on a massive scale.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Whoa whoa whoa, pause for a cause.....Did you seriously think the "critics" like myself were denying that COVID exists all this time? Is that what you thought? Oh My

Yeah, I'm afraid I misunderstood you.

This is true. However, we must still make a decision hence we tend to rely on adequate information which greatly depends on our own motivations and much more importantly, our own anecdotal experience.

Now, you've discounted anecdotal experience as unimportant but I think you're wrong about this. I think this is the most important source of information one could have. Your own experiences is the most reliable source of information you could ever have. If you were abducted by aliens, it wouldn't matter how many experts said there isn't life on other planets, the fact is that your anecdotal experience has given you a definite answer which has managed to elude the experts studying the matter for 40 years is nothing trivial.



This is true across the board thus it applies to the "experts" trying to convince you of something. Also, with regard to inadequate information, we often don't consider what I realize now is the most important piece of information, the motivations of the ones trying to convince you. If you're deciding whether to believe if something someone is telling you is true and you'd don't understand their motivation, you are making a decision based on inadequate information, even if the person trying to convince you is an expert in whatever it is they are talking about. My point here is that every decision you make almost without exception is based on incomplete information. We take a lot more than we realize on faith.

-------

Now, none of this is to say that one shouldn't trust third party sources of information. I'd say that the other extreme, trusting no one is equally as bad as trusting blinding. I am advocating for people to stop and really think about what they are being told. Ask yourself if what you're being told makes sense. Ask about the motivations of the people claiming to tell you the truth. Consider your own anecdotal experiences to see if they align with what you're being told. I think this simple cocktail is a potent enough mixture to avoid a lot of deception especially on a massive scale.

I kind of agree with you on this. Anecdotal evidence is unreliable, but it is often the ONLY thing you have to go on. My example of the vegetation in the Everglades was a case of repeated samples, but also anecdotal evidence. It was wrong, despite being repeated, but it was all I had until I got something better.

So I would say that for every person on every issue, always entertain the idea that you have it wrong, even if you have a great deal of evidence supporting your view. However, nobody can truly live like that in most situations. If you have to choose A or B, and you are 90% sure that A is the right option, you do have to choose it even if you acknowledge that you could be wrong. It is only when you don't have to make a choice that you can allow in uncertainty.

[wes4dbt]

Yeah, I'm afraid I misunderstood you.

It's an understandable interpretation, to a direct, clear statement, "COVID was a hoax". It's also understandable why some people would take offense to such a statement.

I kind of agree with you on this. Anecdotal evidence is unreliable, but it is often the ONLY thing you have to go on. My example of the vegetation in the Everglades was a case of repeated samples, but also anecdotal evidence. It was wrong, despite being repeated, but it was all I had until I got something better.

So I would say that for every person on every issue, always entertain the idea that you have it wrong, even if you have a great deal of evidence supporting your view. However, nobody can truly live like that in most situations. If you have to choose A or B, and you are 90% sure that A is the right option, you do have to choose it even if you acknowledge that you could be wrong. It is only when you don't have to make a choice that you can allow in uncertainty.

I'd just add to what PD said. I think your chance of being correct increase significantly depending on the sources you choose. Also, you need to want to know the truth and not just confirm your opinion.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I'd just add to what PD said. I think your chance of being correct increase significantly depending on the sources you choose. Also, you need to want to know the truth and not just confirm your opinion.

Yeah, that just confirms what I was thinking.

[wes4dbt]

Yeah, that just confirms what I was thinking.

Maybe I'm a mind reader. That's scary.

[wes4dbt]

Is it just my imagination or does it seem like more and more things are having to be decided by the Supreme Court.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/appe...y?id=120562513

That doesn't feel like it should have reached that level. A mistake was made, a judge made a ruling, fix it and move on.

I just don't remember the Supreme Court being so involved in seemingly routine matters. I admit, I pay a lot more attention to the news now than when I was younger.

[TysonLPrice]

Yeah, that just confirms what I was thinking.

UUmmm...my sarcasm radar went off...

[Shaggy Hiker]

Is it just my imagination or does it seem like more and more things are having to be decided by the Supreme Court.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/appe...y?id=120562513

That doesn't feel like it should have reached that level. A mistake was made, a judge made a ruling, fix it and move on.

I just don't remember the Supreme Court being so involved in seemingly routine matters. I admit, I pay a lot more attention to the news now than when I was younger.

The Supreme Court can always decline to hear something, which would allow a lower court ruling to stand. I do think they might be taking on a few too many cases where they don't seem to be setting the law. They probably shouldn't be taking on things that will come down to 5-4 rulings unless they have a clear point to make.

[wes4dbt]

An additional 50% tariffs on China. https://currently.att.yahoo.com/fina...191201930.html

Better get all your Amazon Christmas shopping done now. Strange times we're living in. I've got to hope Trumps bullying tactics work, otherwise the economy tanks. Actually, I'm still hoping he'll reverse directions.

[Shaggy Hiker]

The market is ready to bounce back. It bounced very high this morning on just a hint that Trump was going to negotiate an end to some of the tariffs. When that fell through, the market went with it.

[dilettante]

Meanwhile, 53% approval according to CNN's poll reporting.

[wes4dbt]

Meanwhile, 53% approval according to CNN's poll reporting.

How about a link to that information because I can't find anything even close to that.

Even FOX is reporting a 43% and 46% percent rating and that was as of @ a week ago. I doubt they have went up recently.

[dilettante]

Here is what they broadcast:



Start at 15:55 if the link fails to begin there.

[Niya]

Surprising that CNN would broadcast anything that risks making Trump look good.

[wes4dbt]

Here is what they broadcast:



Start at 15:55 if the link fails to begin there.

I see, your talking about an approval rating on one issue. Presidential power.

[wes4dbt]

The market is ready to bounce back. It bounced very high this morning on just a hint that Trump was going to negotiate an end to some of the tariffs. When that fell through, the market went with it.

It does fell like the market wants to bounce back. It just needs some good news.

Probably the bigger issue is what's going to happen in a few weeks/months when the tariffs take full effect on businesses. Those rising cost have got to be passed on to the consumers. We can't manufacture as cheap as we have been importing. Plus, it takes a long time to build the manufacturing infrastructure and do we even have the people to fill those jobs.

A lot of uncertainty right now.

[TysonLPrice]

Trump inherited an extremely strong economy last time, and trashed it. He just walked into another strong economy and he will trash that. That is a republican pattern.

[dilettante]

I see, your talking about an approval rating on one issue. Presidential power.

That's not the only positive polling CNN has covered. But they seem to be careful only to broadcast such things once instead of repeating it over and over like everything else.

[dilettante]

Trump inherited an extremely strong economy last time, and trashed it. He just walked into another strong economy and he will trash that. That is a republican pattern.

Funny how for both elections the poor economy, income inequality, etc. was a core issue.

[sapator]

You're stuck in percentages. Truth is the market will regulate itself.

That is what I've said from day one.

Also, If I'm not mistaken , because I don't know the exact keywords to look it up. US Bonds? Lending mechanism of US? I'm not sure who to say it, has falling 1-2% and US made 300 Billions out of the difference.
Again not sure how to search this so any native speaker to look it up?

[TysonLPrice]

Funny how for both elections the poor economy, income inequality, etc. was a core issue.

It was mostly decided by low information voters that wake up every four years, pull the lever Fox news told them to or whoever has an R next to their name, and go back to sleep for four more years. In a little over three months he is upsetting the global economic stability with no apparent reason other than he is just stupid...

[Shaggy Hiker]

That is what I've said from day one.

Also, If I'm not mistaken , because I don't know the exact keywords to look it up. US Bonds? Lending mechanism of US? I'm not sure who to say it, has falling 1-2% and US made 300 Billions out of the difference.
Again not sure how to search this so any native speaker to look it up?

I'm not sure what you are looking for. US Bonds are a very complicated subject. For one thing, there are numerous different types of US bonds with different maturities. The strategies for choosing one bond over another are varied and complex. That means that people get into analyzing the differences in yields for different maturities and what that means for the market overall. The last two 'indicators' turned out to be wrong, though, which is a problem with all financial forecasting: the forecast is based on past behavior, and there is no guarantee that past behavior means what people think it means.

You also talk about falling 1-2%, and the US making money out of the difference. That brings up a different area of complexity. Treasury bonds are US debt. If the yield falls, the cost to finance the debt decreases quite a bit. That's pretty straightforward. What makes it more complicated is the quantitative easing that took place following the great recession. There were multiple bouts of that, since it was the only tool the fed could reach for once interest rates got down around 0%, which it was at until quite recently. The Fed was buying US debt...and then the Fed was selling US debt to unwind their purchases. They bought very low yield bonds, which would be devalued as interest rates rose, but then would gain value as interest rates dropped, so you might have been talking about the Fed holdings gaining value if interest rates dropped.

Still, 1-2% seems unlikely to be either one, since the Fed hasn't changed interest rates in some time, and certainly not by that amount, so a change that large seems likely due to trading.

[Zvoni]

Trump inherited an extremely strong economy last time, and trashed it. He just walked into another strong economy and he will trash that. That is a republican pattern.

You do remember how to "make" money with tanking shares (Shortselling, Put-Options, CFD's)?

[sapator]

I'm looking for the rate US lends money from the markets. Maybe Bonds was not correct. The lending percentage has dropped. Again not sure how to search it.
I think this is the board, with every caution. shows the decay on the graph.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-.../interest-rate

[Niya]

It was mostly decided by low information voters that wake up every four years, pull the lever Fox news told them to or whoever has an R next to their name, and go back to sleep for four more years.

Here is a suggestion, instead of dismissively calling half your countrymen stupid, perhaps you should actually listen to what they have to say. Maybe, just maybe they are people too just trying to get by, just like you. Perhaps, they might be right, not on all things but maybe there is something they are seeing that you are not. You might be surprised that if you're willing to listen to them, they might actually want to listen to you. Perhaps this is the way your country starts healing.

Even when I am pissing on liberals, I'm only talking about a relatively small vocal minority. The ones that hold power or have significant voices in the culture through social media and the like.

[TysonLPrice]

You do remember how to "make" money with tanking shares (Shortselling, Put-Options, CFD's)?

What makes you think I should? What is the relevance?

[TysonLPrice]

Here is a suggestion, instead of dismissively calling half your countrymen stupid, perhaps you should actually listen to what they have to say. Maybe, just maybe they are people too just trying to get by, just like you. Perhaps, they might be right, not on all things but maybe there is something they are seeing that you are not. You might be surprised that if you're willing to listen to them, they might actually want to listen to you. Perhaps this is the way your country starts healing.

Even when I am pissing on liberals, I'm only talking about a relatively small vocal minority. The ones that hold power or have significant voices in the culture through social media and the like.

Half the country doesn't doesn't vote, not even close. And I called Trump stupid not the people that voted for him. I called them "low information voters". You went off putting words in my mouth and seeming to say your rants don't top what I said. You are insulting people almost every post.

[Zvoni]

What makes you think I should? What is the relevance?

Do you think Donny (and his friends) DON‘T know?
anyone want to bet, that some of his friends actually bought put-options BEFORE the tariff-announcement?

[Niya]

Half the country doesn't doesn't vote, not even close. And I called Trump stupid not the people that voted for him. I called them "low information voters". You went off putting words in my mouth and seeming to say your rants don't top what I said. You are insulting people almost every post.

Missed the point completely.