I have been wanting to start a new project for a while but have been putting it off now because of a few thing's.

1) It is something i have never tried before.
2) Right now the probability side of the application would be beyond me.

How ever i say to myself. I have no time limit it needs to be completed in. I would be expanding my knowledge along the way, and it seems like an interesting project to be working on.

The idea it self is similar to drug wars(it's only a game so no comments )

Depending on a new day, different location the price will vary. How ever there is obviously a set likely hood range the price will fall in, but obviously can go above/below this. Also need to take into consideration random events. Police raids, Being attacked, loosing inventory etc.

Does any one have any advice or links regarding random events, taking into account probability. Or any thing else that might be useful.