Post election prediction

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Originally Posted by Niya

Let me come at this another way. If I made a claim and then cited Infowars(Alex Jones' brand) as my source, you guys wouldn't even consider it. You would dismiss it outright as false or loony. This is my exact reaction when someone cites The Guardian, BBC or CNN as a source of facts.

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I note that you did NOT mention the link that I showed, which was an aggregator which shows it's work. Instead, you went after the second point I had made which had a single source that you could dismiss more readily.

Aside from that, you have made it impossible to refute anything because you've stated that any source that doesn't agree with you is invalid. Polls have to account for bias, which some do better and some do worse, but all acknowledge. In place of that, you've decided to look for confirmation from what amounts to, "some guy on the internet" by going with a source that doesn't even acknowledge bias let alone try to avoid it. I don't understand how you have managed to convince yourself that your position is even reasonable.

Getting back to attack police.
I found what US and China have in common:
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2...e35583db1.html :lol:

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Originally Posted by Niya

Let me come at this another way. If I made a claim and then cited Infowars(Alex Jones' brand) as my source, you guys wouldn't even consider it. You would dismiss it outright as false or loony. This is my exact reaction when someone cites The Guardian, BBC or CNN as a source of facts.

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Let try another way then. It seems you consider your sources of information as factual as long as they fit your narrative. You seems to consider sources that are quoted that disagree with your narrative as false. I know you are a smart guy...do you see the hypocrisy in that? How can anyone expect to discuss something with you when you begin by concluding everything they think is false?

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Originally Posted by sapator

Getting back to attack police.
I found what US and China have in common:
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2...e35583db1.html :lol:

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You seem to disapprove. Do you think it's wrong to have protections in place for the police?

I guess since you only get arrested and then let go for punching or hitting a policemen with a rock, Greece view policemen differently than the US. I don't know anything about how police are protected in China.

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Originally Posted by Niya

Let me come at this another way. If I made a claim and then cited Infowars(Alex Jones' brand) as my source, you guys wouldn't even consider it. You would dismiss it outright as false or loony. This is my exact reaction when someone cites The Guardian, BBC or CNN as a source of facts.

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Your bias and stereotyping are so strong that you've convinced yourself that when someone points out one of your views is wrong that they have been corrupted by propaganda from the media.

When I point out this view is wrong,

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My impression over there is that he has overwhelming support for the things he is doing and plans to do

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Your response is stop watching CNN. Which completely ignores why I know your view is wrong. You don't provide anything to support your position because you can't. You wont even consider the logic that proves your view false. I get the impression that you think only the people that agree with your views know there is bias in the media.

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

You seem to disapprove. Do you think it's wrong to have protections in place for the police?

I guess since you only get arrested and then let go for punching or hitting a policemen with a rock, Greece view policemen differently than the US. I don't know anything about how police are protected in China.

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Yeah it's cultural difference I guess.

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

Your bias and stereotyping are so strong that you've convinced yourself that when someone points out one of your views is wrong that they have been corrupted by propaganda from the media.

When I point out this view is wrong,



Your response is stop watching CNN. Which completely ignores why I know your view is wrong. You don't provide anything to support your position because you can't. You wont even consider the logic that proves your view false. I get the impression that you think only the people that agree with your views know there is bias in the media.

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If he is wrong, I'm not saying he is or he is not I don't want to take part. The "judges" here have rejected every single post or claim he ever did so I can see why he is a little "biased".

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Originally Posted by sapator

If he is wrong, I'm not saying he is or he is not I don't want to take part. The "judges" here have rejected every single post or claim he ever did so I can see why he is a little "biased".

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If you didn't want to take part, then why did you post. You are taking part.

Feel free to judge the "judges". lol

OK. What part did I took? (this is stupid but I'm waiting for a pizza so)

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Originally Posted by sapator

OK. What part did I took? (this is stupid but I'm waiting for a pizza so)

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If you post in a thread, your taking part. You also added your opinion on why Niya is bias.

Oh I see now.
Yes you are right I meant it like I don't want to take sides not part, I see why it deviated.

...Pizza and a nice night out, have a good one. :wave:

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Originally Posted by sapator

Oh I see now.
Yes you are right I meant it like I don't want to take sides not part, I see why it deviated.

...Pizza and a nice night out, have a good one. :wave:

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Enjoy. I'm still trying to decide on lunch.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

Aside from that, you have made it impossible to refute anything because you've stated that any source that doesn't agree with you is invalid. Polls have to account for bias, which some do better and some do worse, but all acknowledge. In place of that, you've decided to look for confirmation from what amounts to, "some guy on the internet" by going with a source that doesn't even acknowledge bias let alone try to avoid it. I don't understand how you have managed to convince yourself that your position is even reasonable.

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This is exactly what you guys are doing. You're subject to the same confirmation bias that you accuse me of being subjected to.

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Originally Posted by Niya

This is exactly what you guys are doing. You're subject to the same confirmation bias that you accuse me of being subjected to.

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Everyone is subjected to it, the difference is some people succumb to it and then actively seek it out while considering anything that doesn't fit as wrong.

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I don't have social media access

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That surprised me. I'm curious why.

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

Everyone is subjected to it, the difference is some people succumb to it and then actively seek it out while considering anything that doesn't fit as wrong.

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Precisely.

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Originally Posted by Niya

This is exactly what you guys are doing. You're subject to the same confirmation bias that you accuse me of being subjected to.

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No sir...we are pointing out what you are doing. I don't remember you every saying what/who your news sources are.

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

That surprised me. I'm curious why.

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I'm curious...society has access to this media? Doesn't that count?

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

That surprised me. I'm curious why.

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Is there a directive to use social media?
I prefer to physically be around with people I know and also it's a waste of time (not in the bad sense, it deviates you from other things you should be doing)
I only have a Facebook account that I only use for my band. To arrange a studio meeting or put an add if we need a member. Having said that, by only creating that account and starting to get constant friend request was disturbing for me.

If I wanted to view something on ex Twitter that needed log in, I would had to notch my GF to show me but it's been a while since I needed to see something really bad.

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Originally Posted by sapator

Getting back to attack police.
I found what US and China have in common:
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2...e35583db1.html :lol:

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You laugh, but we also resemble them in a second way: We both have the death penalty and we both use it.

In the US, we don't use it all that much, and it is falling somewhat out of favor in practice if not in belief, but it's still there.

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Originally Posted by Niya

This is exactly what you guys are doing. You're subject to the same confirmation bias that you accuse me of being subjected to.

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We certainly COULD be, if we only look at sources that confirm what we believe to be true. That's why I went with an aggregator. There are a variety of news aggregators as well as poll aggregators. Without something like that, there is a much larger risk of confirmation bias.

That was also why I tried to find evidence (actual papers and studies) to support Sappy's positions around COVID back in that thread. Sometimes I even succeeded, though it was always a mixed result. I don't agree with him about either COVID or vaccines, but I also know that my views are my own, and not necessarily right. Heck, I even paid several visits to Moti's forum on the off hand chance that he wasn't just crazy....but, well I suppose checking your data isn't a waste of time.

You always need to check. You can't always, since there is never enough time, and therefore you will always have positions that you think are right, but which are not. Most of the time, you can ignore this and just live your life, but excluding data just because you don't agree with it is always going to be problematic.

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Originally Posted by sapator

Is there a directive to use social media?
I prefer to physically be around with people I know and also it's a waste of time (not in the bad sense, it deviates you from other things you should be doing)
I only have a Facebook account that I only use for my band. To arrange a studio meeting or put an add if we need a member. Having said that, by only creating that account and starting to get constant friend request was disturbing for me.

If I wanted to view something on ex Twitter that needed log in, I would had to notch my GF to show me but it's been a while since I needed to see something really bad.

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It doesn't surprise me that someone chooses not to use Social Media.

But you said,

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I don't have social media access

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So I thought you meant it wasn't available where you live. That's what surprised me.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

We certainly COULD be, if we only look at sources that confirm what we believe to be true. That's why I went with an aggregator. There are a variety of news aggregators as well as poll aggregators. Without something like that, there is a much larger risk of confirmation bias.

That was also why I tried to find evidence (actual papers and studies) to support Sappy's positions around COVID back in that thread. Sometimes I even succeeded, though it was always a mixed result. I don't agree with him about either COVID or vaccines, but I also know that my views are my own, and not necessarily right. Heck, I even paid several visits to Moti's forum on the off hand chance that he wasn't just crazy....but, well I suppose checking your data isn't a waste of time.

You always need to check. You can't always, since there is never enough time, and therefore you will always have positions that you think are right, but which are not. Most of the time, you can ignore this and just live your life, but excluding data just because you don't agree with it is always going to be problematic.

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I'd say it's problematic when you use an opinion base source like X and then convince yourself it's data and that it's an aggregate because a lot of people on X have the same opinion. It's like using a Church as a data source and saying God must be real because a lot of people there say he is. That's a bit of an extreme example. Maybe a better example would using VBForums as your social/political data source and aggregate.

It's true that it is a form of data but it's not evidentiary, it's opinion.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

We certainly COULD be, if we only look at sources that confirm what we believe to be true. That's why I went with an aggregator. There are a variety of news aggregators as well as poll aggregators. Without something like that, there is a much larger risk of confirmation bias.

That was also why I tried to find evidence (actual papers and studies) to support Sappy's positions around COVID back in that thread. Sometimes I even succeeded, though it was always a mixed result. I don't agree with him about either COVID or vaccines, but I also know that my views are my own, and not necessarily right. Heck, I even paid several visits to Moti's forum on the off hand chance that he wasn't just crazy....but, well I suppose checking your data isn't a waste of time.

You always need to check. You can't always, since there is never enough time, and therefore you will always have positions that you think are right, but which are not. Most of the time, you can ignore this and just live your life, but excluding data just because you don't agree with it is always going to be problematic.

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That's why I tune into Fox "News" occasionally....

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

That's why I tune into Fox "News" occasionally....

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I'll do the same thing. Not the TV new but their news web page. It can be pretty humorous sometime to see the different way someone like NBC and Fox word the same story to promote their political bias.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

You left out a wife. He's cheated on all three of them.

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I wasn't sure about the second wife so I gave him the benefit of the doubt, obviously should have just assumed he would be true to form.

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Originally Posted by Niya

Yea, I've been following these stories and more on Twitter. My impression over there is that he has overwhelming support for the things he is doing and plans to do. Despite what his haters say, I think Trump will be one of the best Presidents in American history. Personally, I am very impressed by his courage and abundance of tenacity. He hits everything head on and doesn't give up. I love seeing leaders like this. There are so few of them left in today's world.

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Out of interest I would love to know what you think of his handling of the recent tragedy involving the aircraft and a military helicopter.

Would you describe his lack of empathy, or even a basic attempt to be dignified, as being courageous and tenacious?

Do you honestly think he is doing the right thing by spouting lies about DEI being responsible for the crash?

Was his comment about going swimming courageous?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../donald-trump/ seems to indicate his support isn't exactly overwhelming either.

A whole lot depends on what actually happens this weekend. Does he impose tariffs on a couple of our largest trade partners, thereby spiking inflation in the US? That will be interesting.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

A whole lot depends on what actually happens this weekend. Does he impose tariffs on a couple of our largest trade partners, thereby spiking inflation in the US? That will be interesting.

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That has definitely got my interest. It seems hard to figure how that's going to work out. Some bad things could happen to the economy. Plus the supply chain. I'm just hoping for the best. Not much else to do.

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Originally Posted by PlausiblyDamp

Out of interest I would love to know what you think of his handling of the recent tragedy involving the aircraft and a military helicopter.

Would you describe his lack of empathy, or even a basic attempt to be dignified, as being courageous and tenacious?

Do you honestly think he is doing the right thing by spouting lies about DEI being responsible for the crash?

Was his comment about going swimming courageous?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../donald-trump/ seems to indicate his support isn't exactly overwhelming either.

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I'd say that is who he is, always has been, and will continue to be. My head swims thinking of all the people that voted for him thinking he is some great leader.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

A whole lot depends on what actually happens this weekend. Does he impose tariffs on a couple of our largest trade partners, thereby spiking inflation in the US? That will be interesting.

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Unbelievable...

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The president acknowledged that such extensive tariffs could cause Americans “some temporary short-term disruption,” but added: “People will understand that.”

He dismissed concerns that placing steep taxes on many foreign goods would lead to renewed inflation in the United States, where prices are still rising faster than the Federal Reserve’s target.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ump-trade-war/

“Tariffs don’t cause inflation. They cause success,” the president said.

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Well, the trade wars have begun. Glad to see only 10% on China and only 10% on fuel from Canada.

I understand Trump saying the 25% tariff on Mexico was to force them to do a better job stopping drugs and illegal immigrants but it doesn't seem to make much sense for Canada. I know some drugs and illegal immigrants come from Canada but I've never heard of it being a major crossing point. A lot of booze came across during Prohibition but that's another story.

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

Well, the trade wars have begun. Glad to see only 10% on China and only 10% on fuel from Canada.

I understand Trump saying the 25% tariff on Mexico was to force them to do a better job stopping drugs and illegal immigrants but it doesn't seem to make much sense for Canada. I know some drugs and illegal immigrants come from Canada but I've never heard of it being a major crossing point. A lot of booze came across during Prohibition but that's another story.

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It is just an excuse for him to act tough and try and bully Canada, nothing to do with drugs and illegal immigrants really. Will be interesting to see what this does to the typical prices for day to day goods though, especially the increase on fuel as this will affect the costs of so much more than just pump prices.

Here's the speech from our out going PM on the US tariff action and Canada's response via retaliatory tariffs (in case they haven't showed it in full down there):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiaACQpFUfE

Canada is a narco-state. The US doesn't need anything they offer and most of what is imported from Canada is really a form of foreign aid on the backs of American workers. Not to mention all of the defense welfare they enjoy. These subsidies need to end.

Canada needs to stop trying to be California. It doesn't have a quarter of US military spending and a highly subsidized agricultural industry to prop up such cultural insanity. It's no wonder debt loads and real estate costs are so high, Canada has burnt its economic candle down from both ends and all that's left is the flickering middle.

Hopefully they tone the blue hair down, clean up their act, learn to pay their own way for a change. Canada's NATO arrears alone are at astounding levels.

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Originally Posted by dilettante

Canada is a narco-state. The US doesn't need anything they offer...

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Apart from Crude Oil, cars, petroleum gases and refined petroleum products, car parts, and various metals.

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Originally Posted by dilettante

and most of what is imported from Canada is really a form of foreign aid on the backs of American workers.

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America buys things from Canada that America needs, paying money for goods isn't foreign aid - it is called commerce.

Then again if you are correct prices will fall for the typical American consumer because you won't be buying anything Canada sells. I suppose you could stop buying their oil, although as you import most of your oil from them you have to hope your second biggest country can provide enough and do so cheaper. I am sure Mexico will be able to step up and soon be the number 1 country you import oil from....

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Canada is a narco-state

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I can't think of any reasonable person that wouldn't read right past that...

If we've got nothing the US needs, then why all this talk about making us the 51st state? Sometimes I think Dil is in a narco state...or if not, maybe he should be :p

The whole trade deficit = theft thing is monumentally moronic. You run a trade deficit with your local supermarket. Try telling them you're going to impose tariffs and see what their reaction is.

The USA runs trade deficits with so many countries because you demand more of what they supply than they demand of what you supply. That's it. That's the entirety of what you need to grasp.

On the supply side this is partly because your standards are lower (e.g. in the case of food production) partly because you're costs are higher (e.g. why Chinese EVs are eating your lunch) and partly because you lack certain raw resources (e.g. the Chinese electronics industry is booming based partly on the abundance of the necessary rare earth materials they've got and which you don't). On the supply side it's because US citizens are used to living a far more luxurious lifestyle than most of the rest of the world.

Tariffs will not address any of these core phenomena. To address them you either need to raise your standards (likely to come with increased costs), lower your costs (that almost certainly means lowering your pay check), acquire some foundational resources (my theory, this is the real reason Trump is threatening to invade Greenland - seems like it'd be easier to simply trade for them though) or learn to live with less.

A better solution would be to do what the rest of the world does and what you've been doing successfully for all of recent history - concentrate on the things you're good at, do them competitively and then sell them to the rest of the world in the form of goods and services.

To revisit the supermarket analogy: deciding that you're going to start growing your own food and making your own clothes unless the delivery guy charges you an extra 25% is a stump dumb thing to do when you're a highly paid software engineer.

Apparently Trump is stealing my puns. :rolleyes:
Elon Musk said Donald Trump agreed USAID needs to be ‘shut down’
Ut’s been run by a bunch of radical lunatics, and we’re getting them out, and then we’ll make a decision” on its future.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/senior-us...164804611.html