Post election prediction

[wes4dbt]

Here is a suggestion, instead of dismissively calling half your countrymen stupid, perhaps you should actually listen to what they have to say. Maybe, just maybe they are people too just trying to get by, just like you. Perhaps, they might be right, not on all things but maybe there is something they are seeing that you are not. You might be surprised that if you're willing to listen to them, they might actually want to listen to you. Perhaps this is the way your country starts healing.

Even when I am pissing on liberals, I'm only talking about a relatively small vocal minority. The ones that hold power or have significant voices in the culture through social media and the like.

Don't think your the one to be preaching that sermon. I remember you saying, 95% of the people in the world are idiots.

[wes4dbt]

Well, Trump announces a 90 day pause on tariffs and the market is shotting up. It was an immediate response.

Tariffs on, tariffs off,, tariffs on, Trump says he will not change his mind, tariffs off. What lunacy.

A while back SH said that Trump is chaos incarnate. I'd have to agree with that. Captain Chaos strikes again.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I'm looking for the rate US lends money from the markets. Maybe Bonds was not correct. The lending percentage has dropped. Again not sure how to search it.
I think this is the board, with every caution. shows the decay on the graph.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-.../interest-rate

Yeah, the fed rate. That one has an interesting and complicated impact on things. It's the normal tool the Fed uses, it's just hard to predict what it will end up doing....and when.

[PlausiblyDamp]

Well, Trump announces a 90 day pause on tariffs and the market is shotting up. It was an immediate response.

Tariffs on, tariffs off,, tariffs on, Trump says he will not change his mind, tariffs off. What lunacy.

A while back SH said that Trump is chaos incarnate. I'd have to agree with that. Captain Chaos strikes again.

Utter insanity, it is obvious that nobody can trust a single thing he does or says. Business can't survive with this level of chaos, it doesn't matter if he applies the tarrifs or not anymore - businesses will have to assume that they will get screwed sooner or later.

It will certainly drive other countries to start excluding USA from their trade plans.

[Shaggy Hiker]

That does appear to be the case. Bond yields soared as a result of a bunch of foreign countries dumping them and what amounted to some margin calls for some large hedge funds. The global pool of money has always wanted to know where a safe harbor was, and the US Treasury bond market has been the safest of safe harbors for years. Doubt will cripple the US. At this point, though, there is doubt about the doubt.

[sapator]

Europe kissed Trumps blut so he postponed and the stock markets are rising
https://edition.cnn.com/markets

I'm more and more convinced that people do have the slightest idea how world business works and see Trump up's and down's and idiotic moves. Oh well.
Somewhere on the threads I've written and that was before Trump wins, that the "enemy" is China not Russia and it seems that it goes that way. I'm not sure that it will escalate as I'm not a business analyst but at least I'm not biased , Trump bad fire good.

[TysonLPrice]

Don't think your the one to be preaching that sermon. I remember you saying, 95% of the people in the world are idiots.

Don't bother, he says he just doesn't get the point...

[TysonLPrice]

Utter insanity, it is obvious that nobody can trust a single thing he does or says. Business can't survive with this level of chaos, it doesn't matter if he applies the tarrifs or not anymore - businesses will have to assume that they will get screwed sooner or later.

It will certainly drive other countries to start excluding USA from their trade plans.

His "spin team" is calling it a genius move. He has, in Trump's words, "worlds leaders kissing my ass". He shook things up and now people are begging to make a deal. That is why he pulled back. It had nothing to do with the bond market. And sooo many people believe that...

[FunkyDexter]

Europe kissed Trumps blut

How, exactly, did they do that? What actual concession did he manage to extort out of Europe? Identify one.

Doubt will cripple the US

Yep, that! The facts that dollar is no longer being considered the De Facto Reserve Currency by most of the world and the bond yields rose yesterday (indicating a flight of value out of the USA) are going to combine to make it REALLY expensive to refinance your debt in 2025. You are about to see that debt sky rocket. Yay for fiscal responsibility.

[TysonLPrice]

How, exactly, did they do that? What actual concession did he manage to extort out of Europe? Identify one.

Yep, that! The facts that dollar is no longer being considered the De Facto Reserve Currency by most of the world and the bond yields rose yesterday (indicating a flight of value out of the USA) are going to combine to make it REALLY expensive to refinance your debt in 2025. You are about to see that debt sky rocket. Yay for fiscal responsibility.

And in my opinion, this is all a build up to extending the tax cuts for the rich next year when they expire. He will use "all the money w are making on tariffs" to fund the tax break. Like it or not all this cost cutting, while worth looking at, is just to justify the tax breaks.

Trump's team:
What they're saying: "Many of you in the media clearly missed the art of the deal. You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt scolded reporters.

"You have been watching the greatest economic master strategy from an American President in history," tweeted White House adviser Stephen Miller.

[FunkyDexter]

And in my opinion, this is all a build up to extending the tax cuts for the rich next year when they expire. He will use "all the money w are making on tariffs" to fund the tax break. Like it or not all this cost cutting, while worth looking at, is just to justify the tax breaks.

In my opinion your opinion is correct.

the greatest economic master strategy from an American President in history

In fairness, with a tweet he managed to create the most rapid stock market recovery in living memory

[Niya]

Don't think your the one to be preaching that sermon. I remember you saying, 95% of the people in the world are idiots.

So what?

[sapator]

How, exactly, did they do that? What actual concession did he manage to extort out of Europe? Identify one.

They did exactly what I wrote they will do. Play it angry and payback and then suddenly "we will see" and "oh please please don't"
But I guess whatever I write will no matter as whatever Don does is stupid and evil . Especially here having no idea of the plan immediately pommeled, good or bad, no time to wait, no matter, pommeled. I wasn't even going to respond if it wasn't you that asked.
Also note that there are "tarrifs " inside EU that are not called that, for example Germany cars, these are "exported" to us with a 25-30% tax that is called classification fare. It's probably cheaper to get a USA car.

[dilettante]

CNN's "Soaring Eagle"



The left looks more unhinged every day, and people can see it!

[FunkyDexter]

They did exactly what I wrote they will do. Play it angry and payback and then suddenly "we will see" and "oh please please don't"
But I guess whatever I write will no matter as whatever Don does is stupid and evil . Especially here having no idea of the plan immediately pommeled, good or bad, no time to wait, no matter, pommeled. I wasn't even going to respond if it wasn't you that asked.
Also note that there are "tarrifs " inside EU that are not called that, for example Germany cars, these are "exported" to us with a 25-30% tax that is called classification fare. It's probably cheaper to get a USA car.

You evaded my question so I'll ask it again. What actual concession did he manage to extort out of Europe?

[wes4dbt]

Don't bother, he says he just doesn't get the point...

It is strange how his cognitive skills takes these wild swings.

[wes4dbt]

You evaded my question so I'll ask it again. What actual concession did he manage to extort out of Europe?

Even if there was some concessions, how could you even tell. Tariffs on off on off on off, 10% 25% back to 10%. All you can tell for sure is there has been a lot instability created and businesses don't do well with instability.

There has been of lot of trust lost by the countries we do business with. The massive bond sell off shows that. The stock market is tanking again today.

What good has came out of this nonsense? Right now I can see any. I wish someone could point something out that's positive.

[PlausiblyDamp]

Even if there was some concessions, how could you even tell. Tariffs on off on off on off, 10% 25% back to 10%. All you can tell for sure is there has been a lot instability created and businesses don't do well with instability.

There has been of lot of trust lost by the countries we do business with. The massive bond sell off shows that. The stock market is tanking again today.

What good has came out of this nonsense? Right now I can see any. I wish someone could point something out that's positive.

Presumably it was quite positive for anyone who bought stocks during the slump, knowing the latest flip-flop was going to happen... Or am I just being cynical here?

[FunkyDexter]

Is it just my imagination or does it seem like more and more things are having to be decided by the Supreme Court.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/appe...y?id=120562513

That doesn't feel like it should have reached that level. A mistake was made, a judge made a ruling, fix it and move on.

I just don't remember the Supreme Court being so involved in seemingly routine matters. I admit, I pay a lot more attention to the news now than when I was younger.

I'm surprised we haven't been talking more about this because the implications are pretty terrifying. To summarise: A legal immigrant with no criminal record was taken off the street and transported to a foreign (and notoriously brutal) prison without any kind of trial or legal process. I get that some may suspect that he was a member of a gang but, importantly, there was no legal attempt to ascertain if those suspicions were actually valid - so we really have no idea if he was or wasn't but we do know that, under previous legal proceedings, a judge had given him protected legal status - meaning he was explicitly NOT to be deported.

That's bad! But it gets worse.

The DOJ has acknowledged that he should not have been deported and that they made a "clerical error". Yet, when confronted with those events their response has not been to address that error, it has been to shrug and say "pfft, not our problem". Indeed, they are actively fighting the court order instructing them to bring him back. The "we'll make mistakes but we'll fix them quickly" mantra only really holds water if you actually fix them - otherwise you're just breaking things. And in this case the thing that was broken is a man's life and that of his American born family.

That's bad! But it gets worse.

Because this man (and the others that were shipped with him) had no legal process they were never charged, they were never tried and they were never sentenced. That last bit is REALLY important because it means he has no release date. He's not serving a sentence that will ever end - absent some further intervention he will be there until he dies.

That's bad! But it gets worse.

He's not the only one. Just over 260 individuals were shipped in this fashion. So far we know of two who seem to have been entirely innocent and we have no idea of the guilt or innocence of the remainder. But Bloomberg is reporting that roughly 90% had no criminal record in the USA so it seems a reasonable bet that a substantial proportion of the remainder were innocent.

That's bad! But it gets worse.

When asked if Trump would consider using this power against US citizens he said he'd love to.


So anyone in the US who Trump decides he doesn't like risks being shipped to indefinite detainment in a brutal foreign prison with no legal recourse.

Are we allowed to start calling him a fascist yet?

[FunkyDexter]

Right now I can see any.

I think you might have accidentally missed a 't in there

anyone who bought stocks during the slump

I was soooo close to doing that over the last couple of days, particularly yesterday when the market levelled off. It was obvious that he couldn't maintain the tariffs so it felt like a massive easy win. The only thing that stopped me was "well, it's Trump; he might do anything"

[TysonLPrice]

I'm surprised we haven't been talking more about this because the implications are pretty terrifying. To summarise: A legal immigrant with no criminal record was taken off the street and transported to a foreign (and notoriously brutal) prison without any kind of trial or legal process. I get that some may suspect that he was a member of a gang but, importantly, there was no legal attempt to ascertain if those suspicions were actually valid - so we really have no idea if he was or wasn't but we do know that, under previous legal proceedings, a judge had given him protected legal status - meaning he was explicitly NOT to be deported.

That's bad! But it gets worse.

The DOJ has acknowledged that he should not have been deported and that they made a "clerical error". Yet, when confronted with those events their response has not been to address that error, it has been to shrug and say "pfft, not our problem". The "we'll make mistakes but we'll fix them quickly" mantra only really holds water if you actually fix them - otherwise you're just breaking things. And in this case the thing that was broken is a man's life and that of his American born family.

That's bad! But it gets worse.

Because this man (and the others that were shipped with him) had no legal process they were never charged, they were never tried and they were never sentenced. That last bit is REALLY important because it means he has no release date. He's not serving a sentence that will ever end - absent some further intervention he will be there until he dies.

That's bad! But it gets worse.

He's not the only one. Just over 260 individuals were shipped in this fashion. So far we know of two who seem to have been entirely innocent and we have no idea of the guilt or innocence of the remainder. But Bloomberg is reporting that roughly 90% had no criminal record in the USA so it seems a reasonable bet that a substantial proportion of the remainder were innocent.

That's bad! But it gets worse.

When asked if Trump would consider using this power against US citizens he said he'd love to.


So anyone in the US who Trump decides he doesn't like risks being shipped to indefinite detainment in a brutal foreign prison with no legal recourse.

Are we allowed to start calling him a fascist yet?

This is just what we know about. It is an elected "criminal organization" that owns all three branches of government. They are just getting started.

[FunkyDexter]

Combine the above with the fact that Trump, yesterday, directed the DOJ to investigate two if his political enemies for Treason and it's getting harder and harder to ignore what is happening.

Lawfare, indeed.

[TysonLPrice]

Combine the above with the fact that Trump, yesterday, directed the DOJ to investigate two if his political enemies for Treason and it's getting harder and harder to ignore what is happening.

Lawfare, indeed.

Don't forget about the lawsuits against the press...Trump "owns" the DOJ. He can unleash them like dogs where he wants. Immigrants for example.

[wes4dbt]

The DOJ has acknowledged that he should not have been deported and that they made a "clerical error". Yet, when confronted with those events their response has not been to address that error, it has been to shrug and say "pfft, not our problem". Indeed, they are actively fighting the court order instructing them to bring him back. The "we'll make mistakes but we'll fix them quickly" mantra only really holds water if you actually fix them - otherwise you're just breaking things. And in this case the thing that was broken is a man's life and that of his American born family.

It's crazy. The mistake itself isn't alarming, it's bad but errors are understandable. What's alarming is not making an effort to fix it. Instead, they put all this effort into not fixing it until it ends up at the supreme court.

They do seem to be taking the stance that they can defy all court rulings they don't like. Even take criminal actions against the judges that they don't like. Our legal system is definitely being put through a stress test.

Because this man (and the others that were shipped with him) had no legal process they were never charged, they were never tried and they were never sentenced. That last bit is REALLY important because it means he has no release date. He's not serving a sentence that will ever end - absent some further intervention he will be there until he dies.

There is a lot of unknowns about these others and I don't know if they were in the country illegally or not. But anyone that is here legally have full rights and should. But it's pretty common for people who are caught crossing into the US illegally to be immediately return without any court process.

The whole handling of these deportations has been very covert so we really don't know what's happening. It's so unnecessary, the vast majority of people here have no problem with deporting people here illegally or if they have temporary status and commit criminal acts. When there's no transparency then there's a problem.

Edit: I just read this

Secretary of State Marco Rubio responded on Wednesday evening in a memo obtained by NBC News. In a one and a half page memo, he cited an obscure provision of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 to justify Khalil’s removal from the U.S.

Rubio said that while Khalil's “past, current or expected beliefs, statements, or associations that are otherwise lawful," the provision allows the secretary of state alone to “personally determine” whether he should remain in the country.

If that's really what the law states, that even though you have done nothing illegal I can "personally determine" to deport you. We need to fix that.

This is starting to feel a lot like how we trampled the rights of our Japanese citizens in WWII. Is our country regressing back to that.

I think you might have accidentally missed a 't in there

I hope that's the biggest mistake I make today. That would be a really good day.

[wes4dbt]

Presumably it was quite positive for anyone who bought stocks during the slump, knowing the latest flip-flop was going to happen... Or am I just being cynical here?

They better sale them quickly. @ half their gains were lost today. Anyone buying stocks right now is a lot braver than me. But that wouldn't take much, I'm a fairly low risk kind of investor now a days.

I did see that story about Trump posting on Truth Social that it's a great time to buy stock about 30 minutes before he took off the tariffs. That's just daily life with Trump as president.

[dilettante]

Interesting that Whitmer has crossed lines to endorse the tariff actions and meet with Trump. I suppose the UAW endorsement earlier was a bucket of cold reality in her face, not to mention statewide polls.

Of course the Dem mob lost no time in vilifying her for this move to the center. They seem worried how many swing states are walking away and leaving them far behind.

[TysonLPrice]

RFK Jr.: If you smoke or eat donuts, should society pay for your health care?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...onuts-smoking/

If you don't vaccinate your kids for measles should society pay for their health care?

[dilettante]

Meanwhile in Canuckistan the CCP connections are being exposed left and right. Who is calling the tune in the UK?

[Zvoni]

Right....
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-m...d-vance-visit/

The U.S. military announced Thursday it had removed Col. Susannah Meyers, commander of its Pituffik base in Greenland, stating it would not tolerate any pushback against President Donald Trump’s agenda.

and this:

Combine the above with the fact that Trump, yesterday, directed the DOJ to investigate two if his political enemies for Treason and it's getting harder and harder to ignore what is happening.

Now, why does this remind me of the "Gleichschaltung" --> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleichschaltung

[Zvoni]

How, exactly, did they do that? What actual concession did he manage to extort out of Europe? Identify one.

I wouldn't know of a single concession Germany made
OTOH, we don't know what happens behind closed doors.

But i still remember a small article just after the tariff-announcment, which had Switzerland with 31% tariff increase:
(paraphrased): "Switzerland reacts relaxed to tariff-announcement"
and i was thinking: What IS Switzerland actually exporting to the US?
Except smelly cheese and chocolate....

As for Germany (since "german cars" were mentioned):
Yeah, right.... you try to sell a Ford F-150 in Germany with its 8-cylinder Big-Block, and 15 Liters per 100 km.....
with Fuel-Costs of 1.60 EUR / Liter on average, give or take 10-15 €-cents --> for the americans: that's about 6 USD (give or take) for the gallon....

Maybe Donald should rehash on the Basics of "supply and demand"....

[sapator]

You evaded my question so I'll ask it again. What actual concession did he manage to extort out of Europe?

The taffirs? Duh? I don't get the question.

[sapator]

As for Germany (since "german cars" were mentioned):
Yeah, right.... you try to sell a Ford F-150 in Germany with its 8-cylinder Big-Block, and 15 Liters per 100 km.....
with Fuel-Costs of 1.60 EUR / Liter on average, give or take 10-15 €-cents --> for the americans: that's about 6 USD (give or take) for the gallon....

Maybe Donald should rehash on the Basics of "supply and demand"....

That is going waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy over the other edge. Maybe I have seen 2-3 of them in Greece but I have seen thousand and thousand of Ford Fiesta or Focus 1.0L Ford EcoBoost . Also Germany has German cars that are on the top value , why would they want US cars? Germany France and Italy are out of what you specify as there is no reason the get a US car before of after the tarrifs. What? We are comparing a Mustang to a Porsche or a Lamborghini ?

[Zvoni]

That is going waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy over the other edge. Maybe I have seen 2-3 of them in Greece but I have seen thousand and thousand of Ford Fiesta or Focus 1.0L Ford EcoBoost . Also Germany has German cars that are on the top value , why would they want US cars? Germany France and Italy are out of what you specify as there is no reason the get a US car before of after the tarrifs. What? We are comparing a Mustang to a Porsche or a Lamborghini ?

Not entirely correct.
All Ford Focus for the european market are produced in Germany, they are NOT exported from the US (and this is just an example).
Donny's reasons for the tariffs is the "import/export imbalance" for the US.
If a Ford Focus is produced in Germany, what is the US actually exporting? Except a Brandname

The only real import of US-Cars to Germany (or Europe in General) are actually american cars NOT produced in Europe, which leaves the "unsellable" cars: The Mustangs, the F-150, the RAM's, the Dodge's, The Chevies and whichever i forgot

[Niya]

You evaded my question so I'll ask it again. What actual concession did he manage to extort out of Europe?

He never said there was a concession. He is probably referring to this:-
https://www.oann.com/newsroom/eu-cav...ScOjvfJ6GZsoxw

It seems the EU is ready to negotiate with Trump. This is probably what he meant when he said this:-

They did exactly what I wrote they will do. Play it angry and payback and then suddenly "we will see" and "oh please please don't"

[sapator]

Not entirely correct.
All Ford Focus for the european market are produced in Germany, they are NOT exported from the US (and this is just an example).
Donny's reasons for the tariffs is the "import/export imbalance" for the US.
If a Ford Focus is produced in Germany, what is the US actually exporting? Except a Brandname

The only real import of US-Cars to Germany (or Europe in General) are actually american cars NOT produced in Europe, which leaves the "unsellable" cars: The Mustangs, the F-150, the RAM's, the Dodge's, The Chevies and whichever i forgot

If you want it to push it this far all German cars are produced in Turkey
But if we are talking about car exception then there is not alarm before and after as they are not a significant percentage. But I guess Ford is a brand and US takes money for the cars sold even if they are produced in Albania and the opposite.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Do we export components that go into cars built in Germany? Would we even know? Those items cross borders so often that it's hard for the average person to track them.

[yereverluvinuncleber]

I was trying to think of a single American physical product we use en masse in the UK. I can't think of any.

Software and services via software, that's it. Granted it is a big 'it' but on the physical side imports, are more or less nothing. American stuff just doesn't 'fit', wrong size mostly.

Fashion doesn't count as there is no physical export.

There are some chains that the ignorant and stupid use (the simple masses) and that money goes back to the USA.

With cars there used to be Tesla but largely, no more now. I've seen people 'Heiling' them like they were driven by Adolf Hitler.

[TysonLPrice]

I was trying to think of a single American physical product we use en masse in the UK. I can't think of any.

Software and services via software, that's it. Granted it is a big 'it' but on the physical side imports, are more or less nothing. American stuff just doesn't 'fit', wrong size mostly.

Fashion doesn't count as there is no physical export.

There are some chains that the ignorant and stupid use (the simple masses) and that money goes back to the USA.

With cars there used to be Tesla but largely, no more now. I've seen people 'Heiling' them like they were driven by Adolf Hitler.

How about Coca-Cola? Windows OS? American cereals?

[FunkyDexter]

Coke, yes and Windows, yes. I can't think of any cereals we use though.

I think yereverluvin is mostly right. Other than infrastructure and software platforms (both customer facing like Amazon and back end infrastructure stuff) I don't think our end consumers really buy much American stuff. Probably some electronics but that mostly comes from the Far East, I think. And I don't think it's about price, either, which is why Trump's tariff aren't going to be particularly effective at getting Europe to buy more American goods. We don't like your cars because you don't know what a corner is, we think your food standards are awful, we sure as hell don't want anything to do with you pharmaceuticals industry and we're pretty suspicious about your products in general. Perhaps we're being snobs or perhaps our stuff really is better, I don't know... because I never buy it.

When we do buy American I think it's usually for "nostalgia" reasons e.g. Harley Davidson bikes, Jim Beam and Jack Daniels whiskeys etc. Objectively we can get better bikes from Italy or Japan and telling an Irishman or Scotsman that your Whiskey (or Whisky) is better that theirs would probably get them to stop fighting each other long enough to headbutt you in the face but, at the same time those brands do have a certain "cool" factor that creates a market over here. Also, you're trucks do look way cooler than ours even if ours are objectively better from an operational point of view.

It's also worth separating the concept of where a company is based from where a product is made in this discussion. Coke and Ford are American companies but when we buy a can of coke or a Ford Focus we're buying a European good. It was made in Europe and wouldn't be subject to tariffs. Some value might funnel back to the US in the form of IP licencing etc. but that's a different story. Unless Trump starts putting tariffs on services and/or intellectual property they don't cross over. I imagine that's somewhat different when you're talking about Canada or Mexico because I imagine that the physical goods are going back and forth across the border.

[dilettante]

The UK is all but deindustrialized, aside from some Chinese-owned steelmaking that is going to be shuttered. There is also a push under way to further deagriculturalize the island. Soon there won't be anything left but an Arab bazaar selling Chinese products to each other and looking like the world of Orwell's books.



"Anything from Europe!"