Post election prediction

[PlausiblyDamp]

I agree but we could be proved wrong. Take e.g. Steel. tariffs on Chinese imports will make it less attractive to buy Steel from them, making domestic steel more attractive. That might stimulate domestic steel production.

I think one issue is that if your country has been dependent on imports such as Chinese steel for any length of time, you might not be in a position to replace the imports with a domestic product. Are there enough factories and skilled workers to make up the shortfall at short notice? How long does it take to build new production facilities? Any longer than 4 years to make a return on your investment by be considered a waste as the next President could simply remove the tariffs anyway.

In essence, tariffs aren't there to help you the consumer, they're there to help domestic producers at the consumer's expense. If you think it's going to bring back production jobs, it probably will... but in a less competitive market meaning lower wages or being driven out by automation.

I think it was interesting that there was a surge in people googling what a tariff is the day after Trump won, which does indicate a lot of people weren't fully aware of what a tariff is.

It's worth noting that some of us are posting from a country which has recently undertaken probably the largest experiment in isolationism and protectionism in that last 100 years (Brexit). It's been an unmitigated financial disaster and it's proponents have been reduced to complaining that it was the "wrong sort" of Brexit even though it's the one that they implemented. And that's just the red tape - the tariffs haven't been applied yet but they're coming.

Brexit was pretty much the financial (And bureaucratic) disaster a lot of people predicted, the fact it hasn't yet been as bad as some predictions is being considered a win for Brexit... I dread to think what it will be like here once the tariffs etc. are finally in place.