Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

[dilettante]

Conditions have changed a lot since January 2020 when this infection took off and beame a pandemic.

Many of the most vulnerable are dead now. Vast numbers of people have been vaccinated. Even more have been exposed and recovered from mild or asymptomatic natural infection by now.

Omicron is supposedly only something like 11% less pathogenic than Delta. These factors probably play a bigger role in Omicron's low effective impact... this is what herd immunity is all about.

The health care ommunity has a lot more experience with dealing with severely impacted people now as well.

[dilettante]

This won't convince anybody, or even sway some to consider the matter but...

[baka]

exactly, we have "alternative" media, found mostly in youtube from normal people, doctors, even experts that usually tells another story, that usually reveal information that otherwise we don't get from mainstream media. since we get it from youtube, how reliable is it? is it just fake? can we trust it?

and we have the mainstream media doing what they are doing. and mostly not telling the whole truth.

- mainstream media don't do their job?
is it incompetence? the people in media are lazy and low IQ to make correlations?
or theres someone else that control the media, this so the population follows the narrative of the rich and powerful.

- health authority
why are they not interested in this? they should be experts, they should know that this is happening in Japan.
or they are also controlled by someone else? corruption, where only the corrupted get the highest position.

- big pharma
they don't want this to be known so they can sell vaccines? so how much can we trust them if in the end, money talks.
sure, its all about profit, and thats the motivational behind all the agreements and decisions.

- government
have the power to "affect" all the 3 above but they are not. corruption?

that is why we get alternatives, people want the truth, want all the facts, well, maybe not all people, as we know the majority don't care and believe blindly in mainstream media.

also:
Omicron is now like a seasonal influenza.
and the death count from the flu usually are around 300-600k early.
thats what we have to deal with now. omicron and the flu are "almost" the same severity. (I don't have facts here, but its not as severe as Alpha/Delta)
so, if governments would give much more attention to Omicron for its severeness in comparison with the influenza we would know 100% its not about protecting people but business and corruption.

but is this new? no, its quite obvious the government is corrupted, always been, always will be.

[FunkyDexter]

I've posted the curves for Denmark already

Which does not make the case that vaccines don't help prevent the spread of Covid. It makes the case that social distancing measures do. Your logic is flawed.

Again, nobody has said that the vaccinated cannot spread the virus, they've said that the risk is dramatically reduced. You're still building straw men.

But the point was, that if you want to make the case that we should thank the unvaccinated for the incubation of Omicron, you are simultaneously making the case that we should blame them for the incubation of previous variants.

Of course I know what endemic means

You clearly don't because none of those historic viruses ever disappeared, they are all still with us in non lethal forms, they became endemic. The first virus in history known to have been eradicated was small pox.

Omicron is supposedly only something like 11% less pathogenic than Delta. These factors probably play a bigger role in Omicron's low effective impact... this is what herd immunity is all about.

^That!

[TysonLPrice]

I just talked to him...he speech is slow but he is complaining the hospital won't let him go home. I take that as he is much better than a couple days ago.

He checked himself out of the hospital against their advice. He won't answer his phone and his son says he is sick in bed. His sister called a couple of us to talk sense to him, we barely know her, but he won't take our calls. Someone told me that by checking out of the hospital against their recommendation means insurance will not pay for charges up until he left because he broke the treatment chain.

[Eduardo-]

You clearly don't because none of those historic viruses ever disappeared

LOL! You think to know all and everyone diseases that existed in the past. Or may be that you think that history started in century XVIII

(Just an example: the Spanish flu)

[FunkyDexter]

The Spanish Flu is still with us, it's just that it no longer has any real impact. It's endemic. The Swine Flu we had a few years back evolved from it. We passed it to the pigs, they passed it right back (about a hundred years later).

[FunkyDexter]

@Tyson - sounds an awful lot like my sister. She refused to even be checked in and stopped taking calls from my Mum and Dad. Thankfully she still took calls from me which meant I could help put the families mind at rest but there was nothing I could say that would change her mind. I stopped trying and just tried to be supportive.

[Eduardo-]

The Spanish Flu is still with us, it's just that it no longer has any real impact. It's endemic. The Swine Flu we had a few years back evolved from it. We passed it to the pigs, they passed it right back (about a hundred years later).

These are assumptions, no one really knows for sure.

That was an example, but there have been many infections past in history that there seem we don't have nowadays.

The smallpox was the first disease to be eradicated by vaccinations.

[Schmidt]

Which does not make the case that vaccines don't help prevent the spread of Covid. It makes the case that social distancing measures do. Your logic is flawed.

Nah, it's your "math", which is flawed.

E.g. Germany was much less generous with the distancing-rules in 2021 (3G, 2G etc.) compared to Denmark -
and still we measured a 2.5-fold increase of the 4th wave (Dec. 2021), compared to the one in Dec. 2020.

Responsible for that effect here were (as nearly everywhere else in europe), the ~80% of the vaccinated -
(and not the ~20% of the unvaccced, who - other than in Denmark, were forbidden in 2021, to enter restaurants, and other "mingling-places").

And I've already mentioned, that the same rule of: "shut the unvacced out from public life" were in place in Greece -
(although even a bit stricter than the ones in germany) - so, also the 2.5-fold increase of the 4th wave in Greece,
was carried nearly in its entirety by the vaccinated alone.

Again, nobody has said that the vaccinated cannot spread the virus,...

In the "small-print", yes... (to have some deniability-measure in place... "we always said, that...").

...they've said that the risk is dramatically reduced.

Yup - and that's exactly what they lied about - and what made "The Head-Lines" in the media
(and what all the "paid consulting-experts" told the decision-makers).

It is exactly that misinformation you choose to believe in (and what many governments "trusted" in, when they lowered the mingling-restrictions for the vacced), which in the end caused these large 4th waves (it was never the unvacced who were responsible for that huge wave-increase, it's mathematically impossible).

But the point was, that if you want to make the case that we should thank the unvaccinated for the incubation of Omicron, you are simultaneously making the case that we should blame them for the incubation of previous variants.

Incubation is different from "spreading on a grand scale" -
(which in most european countries, was carried-out by the vaccinated population -
due to misinformation of the payed "experts" and the media, which led to "lowered distancing-measures for the vacced").

Olaf

[Eduardo-]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...rate-b6fp56tv9

Britain’s use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine may be one of the reasons that the nation is not seeing as many deaths as other European countries, according to a former head of the Vaccine Taskforce.

Dr Clive Dix said he believed that the jab could help to stave off serious Covid-19 illness for longer than RNA-based alternatives made by Pfizer and Moderna.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Yup - and that's exactly what they lied about - and what made "The Head-Lines" in the media
(and what all the "paid consulting-experts" told the decision-makers).

What lie, exactly? After all, it doesn't sound like anybody on any side is using numbers. Is an 11% reduction insignificant or dramatic? That largely depends on your point of view. It's a fine number, since it can mean all things to all people. One side can say it's dramatic, the other side can say that they are lying. The first side may or may not be right, but the other side is certainly hyperbolic.

[Eduardo-]

Is an 11% reduction insignificant or dramatic?

That, I suspect, is one of the many lies that they say without actually lying.
I didn't have time to study what the phrase "11% less pathogenic" means, but I suspect it means something totally different than what is induced people to think.

For example: that it causes 11% less symptomatic cases after the infection.
That would be irrelevant if one variant causes many deaths and the other is like a cold and causes none.

Other information probably manipulated:
Hospitals report some (low) number of deaths with Omicron. I wonder if they died because Omicron of with Omicron
I mean: they were going to die anyway of something else, because every day people die, but happened that they tested positive for Omicron, because the infection is already massive.
It is known that for any death, the order is that if the person tested positive for covid, the must put as the reason of the death covid.

Another thing to consider is that some people get infected by both: Omicron and Delta at the same time.
So if the specific test is for detecting Omicron, the result is positive. But they don't test also for Delta.

[Eduardo-]

Manipulating information you can say almost anything. You can even use information to say the opposite.
That what lawyers do in trials.

[sapator]

I agree that manipulation info can give you the opposite results.
So let's get the "official" number they are giving here. Cases doubled and all unvaccinated are at home singing kumbaya.
Who is to blame?

[Shaggy Hiker]

That, I suspect, is one of the many lies that they say without actually lying.
I didn't have time to study what the phrase "11% less pathogenic" means, but I suspect it means something totally different than what is induced people to think.

I don't think that counts as a lie in any sense of the term. Most likely, some researcher came up with a value and published it. Then some reporter took that value and reported on it without understanding it. From then on, everybody saw it as a lot or a little, depending on how they wanted to see it. Technically, they are all right. It's more than 5%, but less than 20%. Whether it is important or not is in the eye of the beholder.

Still, I wasn't commenting on that 11% figure. I just used it because somebody had mentioned it before. As far as I was concerned, it could be totally made up, since I didn't care what the 11% was even referring to. My point was that 100% is meaningful, as is 0%, but any value between those two is in the eye of the beholder. Suppose you had an 80% reduction in transmission of a disease. What does that mean? It doesn't mean that it won't be transmitted, it just means that it will be transmitted less. To any person who gets the disease, it makes not a whit of difference whether they had an 80% less likely chance of getting it. They got it. They have a 100% chance of having it, since they have it. So, why would they care whether this was a somewhat more rare event?

What I feel that Olaf was right about was that the behavior around vaccination isn't sound. At least, I think that's what he was getting at. The odds of transmitting COVID when vaccinated is not 0%. It's lower, but greater than 0. If you are vaccinated and live somewhat isolated, then you probably won't transmit the disease to anybody. On the other hand, if you are vaccinated and go participate in orgies, it would be virtually certain that you'd transmit the disease. A low probability event becomes virtually certain if repeated often enough. So, vaccination helps, but not if you behave as if it is invincible.

To me, it sounds like some countries in the EU decided to try to bribe people into getting vaccinated by extending privileges to them as a reward for vaccination. I don't have a problem with that. In the US, there have been companies that have offered free beer, free doughnuts, and so on, for getting a vaccine. That was a straight up quid pro quo, which is all that the EU appeared to be doing. To suggest that those privileges are because you can't transmit the disease once vaccinated, would be wrong. They were just a quid pro quo. Nothing more.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Cases doubled and all unvaccinated are at home singing kumbaya.
Who is to blame?

Well, not ALL of them. I don't know the words to that song....and I carry a tune like it was a concealed weapon. So, if I'm singing...I have no idea who is to blame. I'd have to plead temporary insanity.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Other information probably manipulated:
Hospitals report some (low) number of deaths with Omicron. I wonder if they died because Omicron of with Omicron
I mean: they were going to die anyway of something else, because every day people die, but happened that they tested positive for Omicron, because the infection is already massive.
It is known that for any death, the order is that if the person tested positive for covid, the must put as the reason of the death covid.

In the first line, you suggest that the information is probably manipulated.
In the second line you state a fact, then speculate that you wonder if it is accurate.
By the fourth line, you have decided that it must be deceptive.
The third line is only there to convince yourself that what you suspected must be true.

In fact, it isn't true. People have been trying to make that claim since COVID began. It has a serious problem: The death rate in the US is FAR higher than it was for the several years leading up to 2020. In fact, it is higher by an amount greater than the reported COVID deaths. Therefore, if COVID wasn't the cause of death, then what caused the extra deaths? It's not a few thousand, it's not within the margin of error, or within the normal annual variation (which would be perhaps as much as 10,000) for the country. It's a few hundred thousand. The official cause for these excess deaths is mostly COVID (the official COVID death toll is lower than the increase in deaths).

Yes, we will all die one day. Since COVID showed up, something has been killing an excess number of US citizens at a rate that is roughly the official death toll of COVID. If COVID didn't cause that increase in deaths, then what did?

[wes4dbt]

Things must be a lot different in Europe than in the US. We have never had a real lockdown. California probably had one of the most stringent lockdown but it wasn't really followed. Restaurants just set up tents outside, plenty of people refusing to wear masks, lots of large private gatherings. The unvaccinated didn't "stay home", no one did except the elderly and high risk factor people (not all of them). Did all the unvaccinated follow the rules in Europe. Who were the people I saw in those large protests?

[sapator]

You got us.
All the people in the protests where unvaccinated and we never stay home, we go around spit everyone suspicious.
But yeah the lockdowns are very different in the context of having to pay money if we break the rules here, else, not even 1% would stay to the lockdowns, at least in Greece.

[baka]

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video...VD2w26LfhJ.mp4

just look at the video, not sure I can add more insight. its exactly this. and if you dont understand, well..... its your choice. take the blue or red pill?

I posted this on facebook and I got:


are you not convinced yet?

[Eduardo-]

[whatever]

I didn't say that covid didn't cause deaths, what I say that not all deaths were cause by covid, but still counted like caused by covid.

For example: a person died because a traffic accident. The covid test is positive. He is accounted as died from covid.

And about Omicron, I would like to compare total normal deaths, with the same number while Omicron wave (still about to happen).

Learn to read.

[sapator]

At least after 100 pages we have a very basic knowledge of epidemiology so we can start from there when psovid 2023 strikes.

[wes4dbt]

You got us.
All the people in the protests where unvaccinated and we never stay home, we go around spit everyone suspicious.
But yeah the lockdowns are very different in the context of having to pay money if we break the rules here, else, not even 1% would stay to the lockdowns, at least in Greece.

Thanks that was helpful.

Now I know,
All the protesters were unvaccinated
All the of them were unmasked
The unvaccinated go around spitting on everyone suspicious
99% of the unvaccinated Greeks only stay home because they are afraid of being fined.

That's all helpful information. Especially about the spitting.

[sapator]

My answer sufficed dearly rather that answering and make you go slideways to prove, something , that you won't like and disregard in the end.
If you have genuine regards on what is going on here?...I'm not really convinced by your posts. You just want to hear that the unvaccinated somehow are responsible for the raise of the incidents, so you were right to thank me and you are welcome of course.

[wes4dbt]

My answer sufficed dearly rather that answering and make you go slideways to prove, something , that you won't like and disregard in the end.
If you have genuine regards on what is going on here?...I'm not really convinced by your posts. You just want to hear that the unvaccinated somehow are responsible for the raise of the incidents, so you were right to thank me and you are welcome of course.

Well, I'm glad you think I did the right thing.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I didn't say that covid didn't cause deaths, what I say that not all deaths were cause by covid, but still counted like caused by covid.

For example: a person died because a traffic accident. The covid test is positive. He is accounted as died from covid.

And about Omicron, I would like to compare total normal deaths, with the same number while Omicron wave (still about to happen).

Learn to read.

What are you talking about? Learn to read? Seriously? That nonsense about mis-attributing COVID keeps coming back despite facing that one, fatal, flaw: We have that huge excess death count that happens to be somewhat higher than the official COVID death count. If you want to believe that COVID deaths are being incorrectly attributed, then you have to explain where all those excess deaths are coming from. Event the official COVID death rate doesn't account for them.

If what you said was true, then the data on excess mortalities couldn't exist, but it does, which means your argument can't be true without there being a terribly convoluted series of improbable events. You provided a testable hypothesis. The data exists to test the hypothesis. The data shows that the hypothesis is pretty nearly impossible. Instead of rejecting the hypothesis you reject the data.

[Shaggy Hiker]

If you go to Greece, should you be expecting expectorations?

[sapator]

Lol, no, I think somewhere about North, Scotland or Wales, it's a sign of good faith but I might be wrong.

Or course I might be wrong about wes, I'm not stubborn to think about, so I might be wrong, if he really want to know I would be glad to answer.
...As a matter of facts, yes we are following the rules because of the fines, stupid rules are mostly ignored, like wearing mask outside by your own. What else, errr, I don't know who the protests are from other countries and from a glimpse in Greece, the protest are wearing out, we are just waiting for the elections to crucify them. The previous months protests (before vax unvax lockdowns) where from everyone, vax and non vax.

About the mortality excess rates, you are forgetting that covid brought a lot with it, lack of food, poverty, hospitals postponing operations to only "serious" and vaccines. So, although I don't have the statistics nor I'm looking for them, I wouldn't put everything on covid, that was the no1 mistake they did in the beginning and look how we are now.

[Eduardo-]

What are you talking about? Learn to read? Seriously? That nonsense about mis-attributing COVID keeps coming back despite facing that one, fatal, flaw: We have that huge excess death count that happens to be somewhat higher than the official COVID death count. If you want to believe that COVID deaths are being incorrectly attributed, then you have to explain where all those excess deaths are coming from. Event the official COVID death rate doesn't account for them.

If what you said was true, then the data on excess mortalities couldn't exist, but it does, which means your argument can't be true without there being a terribly convoluted series of improbable events. You provided a testable hypothesis. The data exists to test the hypothesis. The data shows that the hypothesis is pretty nearly impossible. Instead of rejecting the hypothesis you reject the data.

I would try to explain it with beans, except that I don't have beans.

[Eduardo-]

OK, one more try (I suppose this is the last).

I'm not saying that deaths didn't increase with covid. For logic, the number of deaths that were more in 2020 and 2021 regarding previous years are because of covid, directly or indirectly. And for "indirectly" I mean because hospitals stopped treating other diseases.

If you take the deaths of 2020 and subtract the deaths of 2019, you'll probably will have a good number, close to the real covid deaths.

But if you see the total number of death of covid, they will be more, because anyone that dies being covid positive is counted as death of covid.

Are you following to here?

OK. The same, and it still didn't occur, but if we could compare the total deaths of 2019 with total deaths of 2022 (or some months), my guess is that they will be similar. But still you'll see an important number of deaths from Omicron because they will count any death while being positive to Omicron as death of covid.

Is is clearer?

[TysonLPrice]

If you go to Greece, should you be expecting expectorations?

Is that the best you can bring up

[baka]

in my country "amount of death early"
we have:

2021 : 75 660 (10 months so far) if the last 2 months will be at the same rate, we would get around 90-91k
2020 : 98 124
2019 : 88 766
2018 : 92 185
2017 : 91 972
2016 : 90 982
2015 : 90 907

we could say that, the low rate in 2019, would give more death the next year. since 88k was quite low for that year,
taking that into account, we would get more in 2020, maybe 92k, so 6k should be related to covid.
while 2021 we don't have any significant increase at all. its around what we had 2015-2016 so average.
theres also an increase of population because of the war in Syria, we received a lot.

2015-2020 we increased from immigration: 485000 more people (I sub emigration as well in the total)
that should also increase death a bit.

also, they did say that a lot of death where from "poor" zones, and especially "immigrants", those was over-representative.
could be of bad health overall. that should also be taken into consideration.

this is data.
so lets say 6000 person died because of covid. maybe they would die the next year or the next, because they where old and fragile,
but no matter, its a result of 6000 more death that year that we wouldn't have if not for covid.
but you also need to understand we have a problem with our health care system.
when it all started, covid spread in all the elderly homes, there where no system in place to take care of that huge amount of sick people
the doctor didn't visit them at all, instead they used a "phone-call" and let the nurses do a diagnostic.

hospitals didnt have knowledge or equipment to take care of that.
as u can see, why is 2021 like any other year?
because we did learn and did know what to do.
so its not just the virus is also how good the health system is.

while we got a lot of death in the beginning of 2020, our neighbor countries, didnt, why? they did have better health care especially for elderly.

[Eduardo-]

Covid pandemic may be nearing end, experts suggest

[TysonLPrice]

Covid pandemic may be nearing end, experts suggest

He also ended the article saying:

Lahad recommended that people continue masking and keeping distances, “but the main thing is that if you feel even a little sick, stay home and don’t go to the supermarket, your workplace, or school.”

[Eduardo-]

He also ended the article saying:

Yeah, but what would be expected? Something like: if you feel you have like a cold, go everywhere and try to infect as many people as possible...

[baka]

u should "ALWAYS" stay home, keep distance if you are sick. no matter what.
its not just covid, but everything else. flu as well.
600k people dies every years because of the flu, so we need to keep this distancing approach even in the future.
I have always done that, so for me its quite obvious to do that, not sure why we need instructions at all.

also, wearing mask is not an alternative to not stay home.
people don't care. they want to travel, even if they feel a bit "sick", they don't "scan" their bodies or health at all.
just want to have fun and do stuff, without thinking of the consequences.

now the vaccinated are spreading it around since they are "allowed" to go out, do stuff, travel etc.
even if they feel a bit sick.

I see "A LOT" of people when I go out (groceries) that coughs. they don't give a crap.
and its all kinds of people that do that, especially the vaccinated.
sometimes I meet someone out, that I know is vaccinated and that person seems "sick", coughing and snotty.
they believe "im immune", but you are not, you are a walking infectious mass.

so stay HOME, no matter if you are unvaccinated, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 vaccine shots if you feel "sick", even the smallest feeling.

[Eduardo-]

I guess it is because the end of the year, it is not a good time for all people, I know.

[baka]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...tted.html?s=08

for the lazy:

Two-thirds of new Covid hospital patients in England only tested positive AFTER being admitted for a different illness, official data shows amid mounting evidence Omicron is milder

[Shaggy Hiker]

About the mortality excess rates, you are forgetting that covid brought a lot with it, lack of food, poverty, hospitals postponing operations to only "serious" and vaccines. So, although I don't have the statistics nor I'm looking for them, I wouldn't put everything on covid, that was the no1 mistake they did in the beginning and look how we are now.

Not in the US. One of the things that was included into one of the relief bills was a child tax credit which has substantially reduced childhood poverty. We also shoveled a LOT of money out to people who were out of work...and pretty nearly everybody else. I got a few thousand. You may be right about people postponing operations. I've talked to some friends who were getting joint replacements. That's elective surgery, not life threatening, so it COULD be postponed. One guy was scheduled for both knees, one each year. He got the first one, and it sounds like he's getting the second one, though it might be somewhat delayed. Another guy got a hip replacement. That happened. Not sure if it was delayed. So, I'm not sure how much people are postponing. Heck, we were in crisis care roughly at the time the guy got the hip replacement. Not sure if he got the replacement before, after, or during the crisis care window, though. It wasn't a long window in the part of the state where I am.

So, while you may be right about people putting off care, I can't find much evidence of that actually happening, even for elective surgery. Could that account for an extra 400,000 dead each year in the US? No, probably not.

The poverty might, except that the US didn't see an increase in poverty. We actually saw a decrease due to the payments. So that doesn't account for it, either.