Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
I think "spiking" moves around like fire following the fuel. I'm not even sure the degree of lockdown and precautions matters much unless it is absolute. Knowing people, that never happens. I sure haven't seen it when I've ventured out.
In the end maybe it is all about a gradual process of acquiring antibodies through infection. That puts us back to the herd immunity solution where enough people are immune (and non-spreaders) so the rest have far lower chances of exposure down the road.
Last edited by dilettante; Jun 22nd, 2020 at 10:55 AM.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
I've been noticing some significantly larger numbers the last few days in the number of confirmed cases here locally, as well in some other places.... walking it backwards, it made perfect sense. Roughly 2-3 weeks ago was Memorial Day... people couldn't help themselves... headed to the beaches... had gatherings... and now... welp... here we are...
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
The whole goal of the closure wasn't to eliminate the disease but to slow the rate of spread such that it didn't overwhelm the health care system.
Having said that, the county that Boise is in (though not the one I'm in) has just announced that they are stepping back a stage and a half. This follows the fastest increase in cases we've seen in the state over the last week. We went from 25 two weeks ago to 300 last week. It's not a large number, but the count has been roughly tripling each week, and with the delay between infection and detection, we may be up around a thousand cases in that county right now.
This opening thing? Well, it was fun while it lasted.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
The whole goal of the closure wasn't to eliminate the disease but to slow the rate of spread such that it didn't overwhelm the health care system.
I agree. That was a consistent line coming out of every "authoritative" source that I can recall. I'm sure they believed that and I don't question it myself. Might even be true. May even have worked.
Did that saves lives? Certainly.
But now we hear anti-Trump voices want to lay both the U.S. death toll and joblessness/business failures at his doorstep. They want to argue it both ways: didn't lock down early enough and hard enough, but allowed the lockdowns which hurt folks economically.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Technically, it's all true. We're in uncharted waters. The path we followed led to where we are today. Had we followed a different path, we would have ended up in a different place. Whether that different place would have been better or worse is a matter of speculation...in an absence of data. We have no real experience with this. The Spanish Flu outbreak is the last time we did anything like a lockdown, and that was a different time. You weren't traveling fast or far, back then.
So, if people don't like the current situation, then they feel some other path should have been taken, but everybody is guessing as to which alternate path would have been better.
For my part, I feel like I have no place to complain about anything. The lockdown has been quite pleasant, for me. Full time telecommuting suits me very well. Sure, the lack of dining options is a nuisance, but compared to what others (such as those running the dining establishments) are going through, I have no place to object. I also live in a part of the country that has been largely spared, thus far, and is relatively sparsely populated (though I'm in the most densely populated part of a sparsely populated state), so my personal exposure has been pretty modest. At this point, I don't know a single person who has tested positive, though we were just informed today that one person at our office did test positive, and it is fairly likely that I know them. Still, since they have not been identified, I can say that I don't know anybody who has tested positive.
I object to Trump, and don't feel that he has handled this well, but our Governor has handled it well, and that, plus the low rates in this state, have made up for any failure on the national level. We're almost back to being considered insane for our politics, which means we are pretty nearly back to normal.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
the lack of dining options is a nuisance
Squirrels, Gophers, 'Gators... You just need to get more imaginative.
now we hear anti-Trump voices want to lay both the U.S. death toll and joblessness/business failures at his doorstep
I'm not hearing people blame him for Joblessness and Business Failures although it's possible those voices have simply failed to reach the UK. I do think he needs to bear a large portion of the blame for the death toll though. Right now you're about the only country left with an increasing infection rate and it's not because you're not getting a second wave. You haven't dealt with the first wave yet and that's largely due to the message Trump has consistently sent.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
But now we hear anti-Trump voices want to lay both the U.S. death toll and joblessness/business failures at his doorstep. They want to argue it both ways: didn't lock down early enough and hard enough, but allowed the lockdowns which hurt folks economically.
Well Trump is the president, he is in charge who else you gonna blame?
As to locking down early enough, if you look at the countries that did lock down early and hard, there lockdown's lasted a shorter period of time and where more effective as locking down early before widespread virus transmission stop the virus getting out of control and bring down the R rate quicker.
Locking down for a shorter period of time is in every bodies interests and the evidence is showing that quicker earlier lock downs are just a better and more effective strategy when dealing with a virus like this one.
Having a lockdown of some form was inevitable, very few countries have a health service that is designed to be able to cope with a virus hospitalising the number of people we saw, and when you health system starts to fail many many more lives are lost.
I see that mainly the groups that are blaming Trump for not locking down quick enough and those not wanting to lock down at all are different groups, if any of them are in the same group then they are contradicting themselves.
We're in uncharted waters. The path we followed led to where we are today. Had we followed a different path, we would have ended up in a different place. Whether that different place would have been better or worse is a matter of speculation...in an absence of data
We do have some data to compare against now, yes we would like more but international comparisons are showing us which approaches have been so far more effective, they are also showing us as we open up from lock down what activities are causing the most spikes in new cases. For instance in South Korea which is generally considered to have managed this pandemic well, they opened back up all there bars and night clubs back to normal and almost immediately saw a spike in new cases.
Somewhat obviously but now supported by actual events, activities where lots of people congregate indoors and dont social distance and there is plenty of human to human contact spike the cases upwards.
Meat processing plants seem to be another driver of new cases due to the poor working conditions and lack of social distancing.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
But now we hear anti-Trump voices want to lay both the U.S. death toll and joblessness/business failures at his doorstep. They want to argue it both ways: didn't lock down early enough and hard enough, but allowed the lockdowns which hurt folks economically.
Do you think that might be because he is the President of the United States...
Or...that his whole approach to the health of our nation is driven by him wanting to be re-elected? Nothing else! He abrogated his responsibility as president and just left it up to the states. That when a national approach was so badly needed.
Last edited by TysonLPrice; Jun 23rd, 2020 at 05:11 AM.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
Squirrels, Gophers, 'Gators... You just need to get more imaginative.
Got the squirrels, the gophers aren't local, but...and you might be surprised at this...I DO know where I can go to buy fresh gator in Idaho. That may sound like a joke, but it isn't. There's a place that uses a hot spring to raise gators.
I'm not hearing people blame him for Joblessness and Business Failures although it's possible those voices have simply failed to reach the UK. I do think he needs to bear a large portion of the blame for the death toll though. Right now you're about the only country left with an increasing infection rate and it's not because you're not getting a second wave. You haven't dealt with the first wave yet and that's largely due to the message Trump has consistently sent.
I haven't heard him being blamed for the economic slump around the virus. I've only heard him blamed for trying to get people to open faster than is wise.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Well, the UK certainly isn't going to win any prizes for how they handled this. They got into quarantine too late, then left too early. I can understand them wanting to leave early. After all, they were probably desperate to show that they could exit SOMETHING.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
The UK has a much higher population density than the US and they did a very bad job of handling the problem, waited way to long.
If our numbers are better than the UK is not because of any leadership from Trump, it's despite his lack of leadership. The governors have had to make all the decisions and implement them. Trump has consistently went against his own CDC guidelines and encouraged others to do the same.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
But Trump thinks now is the right time to open up
Trump thought Easter was the right time to open up.
NOW, everything is opening up. Many states are seeing their highest daily new case count. But so far the daily deaths are still going down, there is usually a two to three week lag between new cases and deaths so the next 10 - 14 days should tell us a lot about where we stand on opening up. But Trump can't wait for the data to lead us in the right direction. All this morally bankrupt narcissistic president cares about is being reelected and he doesn't care how many people die so he holds an indoor rally.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
"Trump is the COVID Antichrist" then facts then "but, but..."
Not past the first wave yet?
I'm in Michigan, which has an area and coastline about equal to the UK. Population density is lower, around 1/6 of the UK.
About 87% of our cases occurred in 9 adjacent counties (out of 83). "Opening up" has been by region within the State based on safety yet almost 100% of the increase in cases has been down there in Zona Infectada. Why? Because for political reasons that have nothing to do with Trump the giant anthill has been allowed to open up on schedule with the safer regions.
Here's a graph that shows we've exited the first wave. The new rise is almost entirely in those 9 counties.
Last edited by dilettante; Jun 23rd, 2020 at 02:11 PM.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by dilettante
I'm in Michigan, which has an area and coastline about equal to the UK. Population density is lower, around 1/6 of the UK.
Hey now!!! You aren't allowed to count moose when calculating population density. You're only allowed to count full humans and those who are at least 2/3 human. Moose and were-moose don't count. They don't get COVID.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
My point is that turning the pandemic into a political football isn't helping anyone... anyone but the forces of evil who oppose Trump for all of the wrong reasons.
He's a buffoon. He does a lot of bad. But the alternatives are far worse on both sides of the political aisle.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
Hey now!!! You aren't allowed to count moose when calculating population density. You're only allowed to count full humans and those who are at least 2/3 human. Moose and were-moose don't count. They don't get COVID.
Yeah. But what about Sasquatch, Dogman, and those Grey Aliens?
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
While we can all agree the UK has had a crap response to the corona virus i would't be so quick to compare figures.
By all accounts in the US you are not including deaths in care homes in all states in your figures while we in the UK are, i would put money on your deaths per million to be pretty much the same as ours if not slightly higher as you guys had the same crappy response we had.
Also i still dont get what your point is about coming out of lockdown in the UK we now have around 4000 cases a day across the whole country, and many still think we are coming out to quickly and those figure are at least still currently dropping between 2 - 4 % a day.
Any US state that has the Virus under control should most probably be reopening particularly if you have test and trace setup so more local outbreaks can be dealt with, but what clear is there are a number of states including Florida and Texas where cases are rising.
Florida for instance has gone from somewhere around 800 on the 4th of May back up to around 3,200 which is a significant rise
Texas has just reported around 5,500 new cases per day as of yesterday and rising
He's a buffoon. He does a lot of bad. But the alternatives are far worse on both sides of the political aisle.
I dont know how you can even say that, Trump is a terrible President, Biden might not be a good President and yes he is flawed but just by doing a bang average job he would be better than Trump.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
What happened in the US is that the feds largely abdicated any responsibility, which left it up to the states. Some states responded very well, others did not. We end up with a patchwork quilt of responses. Fortunately, some of the states that responded the worst happen to also be states that even the virus would rather not visit. Idaho responded well, but has such a small population that it wasn't all that big a deal (and we might not be able to handle it if it was). However, if we are really ramping up tracing, it hasn't been talked up very much. I know we are doing some, I'm just not sure that it is anywhere near adequate, or ever will be. That patchwork response is continuing. What we are seeing is the result of the response we had. It's not national, it's state by state. Of course, people will spread the virus across state lines, so it won't be contained state by state, but the results we are seeing is largely the result of the different responses that make up the patchwork quilt that is health care in this country.
Meanwhile, the rise in cases in Florida either means that the virus is taking spring break, or is feeling ready to retire. Frankly, it SHOULD have taken off there far earlier and far more severely than it did. One of the oddities that may eventually get studied in this epidemic is why Florida took so long to see such a rise. They had it all: High population, no initial response, meager and reluctant eventual response, elderly population, LOTS of migratory movement from hotspots like NYC. They were an ideal incubator, yet their response was oddly delayed.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
How do you contact trace 36,000 people (yesterdays new cases)? 3,600 would be a struggle.
As for Florida, earlier reports seem to indicate the Governor was actively trying to hide the true amount of of cases. I seem to remember one health department worker claiming to have been fire because she would go alone with the program, also if you don't test then you don't have official cases. Just a couple of guesses.
Record highs have been reported in Arizona, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas and Oklahoma. North Carolina and South Carolina each set hospitalization records.
Texas, which began lifting lockdowns on 1 May, has seen hospitalizations double and new cases triple in two weeks.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Went to the doctor today for a followup (just ColoGuard results) then pharmacy for a TDAP vaccine shot. Both seemed to have relaxed precautions a little.
I was able to get in to see the doc bypassing the entry screening. Mentioned that, they said it was a no-no but entry doors are unlocked and many signs have come down. Ok. They had called me earlier today to screen by phone first though, and I mask up when I go out anyway. Only flaw is nobody took my temp before I got in.
Sign said "two people per elevator" but 4 of us got in, including an unmasked child in a stroller. Cringe.
I asked why I saw so many guys come in to see the doc with their wives, who went into the exam rooms with them. Clerk said they aren't supposed to... but somebody isn't paying attention.
The doc actually pulled her mask down after coming into the room. Weird. I commented on it, she said since she was substituting and I don't know her already she wanted me to see her face. Ok. But after that she masked up again. I wasn't mask-shaming... but holy hell.
Things are getting lax.
This wasn't some doc-in-the-box place. It's in the Internal Medicine Residency adjacent to a major hospital.
Last edited by dilettante; Jun 24th, 2020 at 10:47 PM.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Something on a lighter note.
I made a point of giving a little wave to people entering and leaving while sitting in the waiting room. Yeah, I arrived early and got bored after going through the visit questionnaire about prescriptions. All of these people are strangers to me and even with a mask on I'm sure they realized they don't even casually know me. I've only recently started going to the doc there.
Just the same in every case I could see a positive reaction. I hope the gesture helped brighten the day for a few people.
We're all feeling isolated these days to one degree or another.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
A very creative study published on April 30th 2020
“We show that the risk of severe COVID-19 cases among patients with severe Vit D deficiency is 17.3% while the equivalent figure for patients with normal Vit D levels is 14.6% (a reduction of 15.6%)”
Get your vitamin D levels up, take your zinc supplements. Cheap, easy, and there is no downside.
If you hang in toward the end he also mentions a correlation between use of ibuprofen and immune system dangers. You might want to ask your doctor about that... and all of this.
Last edited by dilettante; Jun 25th, 2020 at 12:00 AM.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Coronavirus infections in the U.S. have surged to the highest level in months with nearly 35,000 cases in one day as New York, Connecticut and New Jersey start a new quarantine policy.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
California sees 69% Covid-19 rise in two days as LA county has most cases in US
Yeah i forgot to mention California, i have to say if i lived in any one of those states (Florida,Texas,California e.t.c) i would be very worried right now.
They maybe forced into another lockdown at some point whether the like it or not.
I find it crazy that many of these states reopened bars as normal with no real social distancing measures, what did they think was going to happen?
The thing i am most worried about over here in the UK, is that we are reopening pubs and bars form the 4th of July, they are supposed to follow "covid secure guidelines" such as table service only, and social distancing measures, but how many will really follow that and as people get drunk how many will not properly follow the rules.
I thought they were just going to open beer gardens first but apparently not, i for one i want be going to any pubs or bars for a while but they will almost certainly be full of young people who are bursting to get out and back to normal and now think that everything is ok! (as the pubs are open)
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Google Translate:
Chinese scientists have made major breakthroughs in the research of new coronavirus antibodies. A team led by Chen Wei, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a researcher at the Academy of Military Medical Sciences, has discovered the first highly efficient neutralizing monoclonal antibody targeting the N-terminal domain of spike protein. At 22:00 Beijing time on June 22nd, the international top academic journal "Science" published the research results online. This is another world-class scientific research achievement after the adenovirus vector recombinant new crown vaccine developed by Chen Wei's team first entered the Phase II clinical trial in the world.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by dreammanor
Google Translate:
Chinese scientists have made major breakthroughs in the research of new coronavirus antibodies. A team led by Chen Wei, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a researcher at the Academy of Military Medical Sciences, has discovered the first highly efficient neutralizing monoclonal antibody targeting the N-terminal domain of spike protein. At 22:00 Beijing time on June 22nd, the international top academic journal "Science" published the research results online. This is another world-class scientific research achievement after the adenovirus vector recombinant new crown vaccine developed by Chen Wei's team first entered the Phase II clinical trial in the world.
A lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
The bottom line is this: We don't have any vaccine, the rest is just science. Major breakthroughs are a dime a dozen, because everybody thinks theirs is a major one. To put it in perspective, about a decade back we had a major breakthrough in solar cells that would potentially triple the conversion efficiency. Those still haven't made it to the mass market, and may never do so.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by dilettante
Went to the doctor today for a followup (just ColoGuard results) then pharmacy for a TDAP vaccine shot. Both seemed to have relaxed precautions a little.
I was able to get in to see the doc bypassing the entry screening. Mentioned that, they said it was a no-no but entry doors are unlocked and many signs have come down. Ok. They had called me earlier today to screen by phone first though, and I mask up when I go out anyway. Only flaw is nobody took my temp before I got in.
Sign said "two people per elevator" but 4 of us got in, including an unmasked child in a stroller. Cringe.
I asked why I saw so many guys come in to see the doc with their wives, who went into the exam rooms with them. Clerk said they aren't supposed to... but somebody isn't paying attention.
The doc actually pulled her mask down after coming into the room. Weird. I commented on it, she said since she was substituting and I don't know her already she wanted me to see her face. Ok. But after that she masked up again. I wasn't mask-shaming... but holy hell.
Things are getting lax.
This wasn't some doc-in-the-box place. It's in the Internal Medicine Residency adjacent to a major hospital.
You say it's getting lax, but you'd find that what you saw was pretty tight compared to the way it has been out here for a month, or more. That is likely a part of why we are seeing such a strong resurgence. I'm not sure that we ever quite reached the level that you are considering lax.
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
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