Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
The problem is that your calculation is based on a percentage of the total population, that's not how the projections are calculated. They're calculated by multiplying the death rate by the projected infection rate. If the death rate is being overestimated as you posit (and I suspect you're right) it means the infection rate is being underestimated by the same amount the death rate is being overestimated.
Sure, but consider this. Let K = known infected cases, U = unknown infected cases (asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic but never tested, etc.), and D = Dead. Let K/(K+U) remain consistent throughout.

So, let's use some round numbers. 100,000 infected in the USA, ~1450 dead. Extrapolated out, once 100,000,000 are infected, that would mean 1,450,000 dead (not considering potential increased death due to lack of health care issues from so many infected simultaneously). But hang on. What if when there were 100,000 infected there were 400,000 asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic that go undiagnosed. That puts K/(K+U) at 0.2.

Ok, what does that mean. That means that K can never reach 100,000,000 in the USA. Why? Because if K = 100,000,000, then K+U = 500,000,000. The upper limit on what K+U can be is the total population of the USA, and the population of the USA is nowhere near 500,000,000. Also, for K+U to equal the total population, that would mean 100% of the USA were infected knowingly or unknowingly, and no projection that I've seen assumes a total infection rate.

So, having a sense for what K/(U+K) is has a huge impact on final projections.