This year, rather the past month or so, there have been some important developments in the ongoing war on terror by the USA and her allies in Iraq and Afghanistan.

1. The US forces have almost completely pulled out of Iraq.
2. The US forces are scheduled to pull out of Afghanistan by next year end.
3. The seeds of democracy may have been sown in Iraq, however the government is still very fragile. As of now I doubt if there's a government at all (technically).
4. A similar political situation exists in Afghanistan, where the Karzai government does not seem to wield any influence outside the sphere of the NATO forces.
5. Pakistan has experienced some of the worst natural disasters by way of the devastating floods.

Considering these developments I think this year and the next are going to be defining periods not only for the Asian subcontinent but also for the world. Of late, Iraq and Afghanistan have been the focus of intense military, political and social battle. With the US forces leaving these countries, the military vaccuum and the resulting political fragility are, IMO, a recipe for disaster. The chances of Al Qaeda and Taleban regrouping and re-staking claim to power in both these countries is very real now.

Pakistan has already been devastated by the floods. With all the resources focussed on mitigating the damage done by the floods, if the Taleban mount an aggressive insurgency, I doubt if the military or the political establishment will have enough reserves/strength left to challenge them. The floods is a good opportunity for the extremists to capture power. If that happens, the nuclear arsenal will fall in the hands of the extremists.

I would like to know other views of this situation.

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