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I've heard conflicting opinions about the heat's effect on the virus... it also possible that initially it did have an effect, but that it's also mutating at a rapid rate such that it could become heat-resistant, in which case.... fork... here in South Carolina that's gonna be a problem (we currently have just over 200 cases, with 5 deaths)Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
-tg
honestly i don't have a clear idea yet but it looks terrifying
https://id2020.org/
https://www.gatesfoundation.org/What-We-Do
Here's an interesting map:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
An ESRI GIS map of the number of outbreaks by area. The US has made it to third place, at this point, and could take the gold, in the end.
Trump is having a town hall style meeting on Fox news. Fox is picking the submitted questions. It is just a platform for his propaganda. What a joke of a president we have.
?????Quote:
Originally Posted by TysonLPrice
I don't think we're communicating. My point was, why would you believe anything that Trump says? I don't, I haven't for 40 years.
I took:Quote:
Originally Posted by wes4dbt
What would make you think that China even said that???
Literally. Seems like we are on the same page about Trump's strained relationship with facts and reality.
I just realized there was something weird at the store the other day: Hot dogs were pretty nearly gone, and so were hot dog buns. However, you could get a bajillion hamburger buns and a fair amount of burger.
What's up with that? Have we decided to lower our standards of meat products as a response to the virus?
Hot dogs have the shelf life of uranium. My store has been out of lunch meat the last two times I went. Bacon and sausage, all gone. Plenty of toilet paper when I went yesterday.
Its all the kids at home...they don't know any better...Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
.....
Fork.... I may have to start taking this thing seriously... we've just entered the second stage of the apocalypse...
https://www.wrdw.com/content/news/Wa...569065871.html
Waffle House is closing down some of its locations...
-tg
It turns out I was wrong on this. I believe the figure was an early day figure, not the total day. Italy's still on an exponential increase. Apologies for the miss-information.Quote:
Italy has experienced a downturn in new cases.
15 days?! Dude, you're looking at 12 weeks, minimum! 15 days is the period you need to fully self isolate if you actually have the virus. It's the period you, personally, need to be quarantined for. The lockdowns are about delaying the spread of the virus for the whole country, it runs into months.Quote:
Hopefully Trump lets the 15 day period complete in full before thinking that things can start opening back up again.
Sounds like you were actually pretty responsible. Over here we're saying that it's fine (recommended in fact) that you get out and get some exercise, but you maintain a distance of 2m from anyone else while you do it. so things like a walk in the park or kayaking are fine.Quote:
I "broke home quarantine" this weekend... had to
It's important to understand that the lockdowns aren't intended to stop the virus. They're intended to slow the spread so our emergency services are better able to cope. It reduces the height of the peak. As you and Dil have identified, this will resurge in waves (or just carry on at a consistent reduced rate) until we have built up a herd immunity. That's all part of the plan though.Quote:
I agree and it makes me feel conflicted about the US\world lock down strategy if it is just going to resurface again
@NSA, I think we've handled it fairly until the last couple of days. I feel the message to stay home came at about the right time but it's increasing clear that we've left some major point of confusion and haven't enforced it the way we should.
Failing to offer concrete answers for what would happen to gig economy workers and the self employed has the potential to be disastrous (might already have been so). Seriously, I phoned up the agency on Monday to cancel my cleaner and they were trying to talk me into letting her come. I know why. Both her and the agency could end up being hung out to dry by this but, seriously, ironing my shirts is NOT a critical function.
My sister and her partner's have a small fleet of minibuses they use to do school and airport runs. Needless to say that business has collapsed so, because they still have absolutely no idea what support they're going to get, my sister has taken a temp job stacking shelves at Aldi. Just for flavour, my sister has diabetes so is in the at risk group. Failure to isolate could literally kill her but she feels she has no choice.
The debate over whether to shut construction sites is ludicrous. Sure, keep critical infrastructure projects running, but there's a house conversion still going on 5 doors down from me. That could wait.
I also think the government have shown a habit of trying to slope issues off onto the public rather than taking ownership. Telling people to not go to pubs and restaurants instead of simply saying the venues had to close meant that some stayed open longer than they should and, surprise, surprise, people went out to them. That will have cost lives.
And I don't feel there's a ready source of information where we can enquire about shady edge cases. My Rental property in Cardiff has it's Landlord safety certificate due in a week. I don't know whether I should be getting that done. I think I should (it's a potential health and safety issue) but I don't know and there doesn't seem to be anyone I can ask.
Overall I think we're getting it roughly right in the UK but we REALLY need better and more concise information. That failure is going to cost lives.
Sorry for the wall of words and Shaggy wins the alliteration prize for post 312:afrog:
I disagree with this China started it lockdown after 13 deaths we waited until there were over 300. Italy had less reported deaths before they locked down.Quote:
@NSA, I think we've handled it fairly until the last couple of days. I feel the message to stay home came at about the right time but it's increasing clear that we've left some major point of confusion and haven't enforced it the way we should.
As we could see what was happening in Italy and Spain who at that point were essentially 2 -3 weeks ahead of us i feel it was negligent not to lockdown about 2 weeks earlier many more deaths could have been avoided and we could have put much less strain on the NHS.
Locking down was inevitable but it seems our government was until a week ago still trying to avoid it.
Also i hated the initial gov instructions telling people what they should do rather than ordering it, they were widely ignored in my area and from the news you can see all around the country.
Only when Boris announced the Lockdown did i finally think that he had taken it seriously and it was his first good response to the Virus.
I really hope i am wrong but from looking at the numbers and the responses elsewhere i think it wont be long until we are experiencing 500 - 600 deaths a day like Italy, everyday China's response is looking more and more impressive.
Me too but I think you're right about how it will progress from here. We've got big numbers coming.Quote:
I really hope i am wrong
The only point I differ with you on was how much difference an earlier lock down would have made vs the economic impact of that. I also think that up until a couple of weeks ago there was a possibility that milder measures that were being proposed (social distancing, cleanliness etc) could have kept a lid on it. That was the scientific advice while we were in the containment phase and I think the government were right to follow it. I don't think the public at large took those measures seriously enough (they were too busy buying friggin' bog roll), so here we are now.
But more importantly, I've just heard Trump announce that it's all going to be cleared up by Easter (aprox. two weeks away) and wouldn't it be beautiful to see all those churches packed with worshippers! Seriously?! No! No it effing wouldn't! I know we weren't going to politicise this thread but I'm going to say it: Trump is either delusional or deliberately misleading to the point of being genuinely dangerous to life. He, and his rhetoric, is going to be directly responsible for thousands of American deaths.
And it only took you three and a half years to figure that out :rolleyes:Quote:
Trump is either delusional or deliberately misleading to the point of being genuinely dangerous to life. He, and his rhetoric, is going to be directly responsible for thousands of American deaths.
Actually I know that isn't true about you. It was just the perfect opportunity to say it :p
I saw a Fox news report this morning that said a recent Gallop poll has his approval rate at handling the crisis at 60%. I just don't understand that.
Not three and half years to spot it, just three and half years to get angry enough to say it.
I don't like the tendency us on the left to portray everyone who disagrees with us as either stupid or evil. It's our absolute worst habit and lessens us as people. I like to think of myself as a compassionate lefty and part of that is taking other peoples opinions seriously, even when I disagree with them. With that in mind I've spent the recent years trying to write off the worst things Trump says as well meaning stupidity and I think of those who support him as wrong (in my opinion), but fundamentally decent people.
But at the point he's encouraging people, in the middle of the worst health crisis we have seen in over a century, to do exactly the opposite of what every health professional is saying, yeah, I got genuinely angry because there are plenty of people who will believe him. That speech is going to cause deaths.
edit> Please guys, don't go to church and more than you would go to the pub right now. Stay in. The only things you should be going out for are necessary groceries and exercise and even then, you should stay at least 2 metres apart from everybody else. You need to be prepared to do this for 3 months, possibly longer. even if you feel absolutely fine. If you're doing anything beyond that you're putting not just your own life at risk but the lives of everyone else.
Two miles? That would be great. I just wish the snow was out of the mountains, cause I'd be all over that. As it is, here in the US we are supposed to maintain a distance of six feet. I only have TWO. What the heck am I supposed to do for the other four? I guess I could get a dog, but I don't have one currently. Therefore, I ended up buying two mannequins and tying them front and back when I go outside. I see how this works. Everybody is staying a good long distance away from me.Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
I hear your argument but really thats almost exactly what Spain and Italy did and we could see what was happening there it was like looking into our own future and just shrugging thats what i have a problem with. People (and i include heads of governments in this) dont seem to want to believe the size of the problem until they can see the people dying with there own eyes.Quote:
The only point I differ with you on was how much difference an earlier lock down would have made vs the economic impact of that. I also think that up until a couple of weeks ago there was a possibility that milder measures that were being proposed (social distancing, cleanliness etc) could have kept a lid on it.
The Economic impact could not be avoided, and locking down earlier would not mean that we would lock down for longer so i just dont get the argument about us some how mitigating the economic impact we haven't.
Yeah, ^that. I also think people tend to think they're only harming themselves. They're not. They're harming everyone else.Quote:
People (and i include heads of governments in this) dont seem to want to believe the size of the problem
@Shaggy, I can't help feeling this would be a perfect opportunity for one of your hikes. You can't catch Corona off a Grizzly (afaik).
edit> At last, some good news:D
interesting math
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6nLfCbAzgo
I've thought that, as well, but the weather says otherwise. We're in the shoulder season. The days are too warm for winter camping, too cold for summer camping. Avalanche danger is high, lakes are frozen over...and now I couldn't fly somewhere further south even if I wanted to. Had this happened at a different time, I might have just disappeared into the mountains for a month, but can't do that, at the moment.Quote:
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
What about an octopus? Eight arms and no hands...what kind of cruel joke is that :pCode:I only have TWO
Yeah, there are a whole lot of suckers among the octopi.
If you are going to make puns you should come better armed than that...Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
You guys have got to be squidding me.
A man walks into a bar with an octopus...
...he sets the octopus on the bar and says to the bartender, "I'll bet you $50 this octopus can play any instrument you have." The bartender agrees and directs him to a piano in the corner. After the octopus sits down and plays a few bars the man asks the bartender to pay up. "Hold on" says the bartender and hands over a guitar. The octopus takes the guitar, gives it a quick tune and plays a little song. The man again asks the bartender to pay up. "Just a minute, I think I've got something else here." The bartender disappears into the back room for a couple of minutes, comes back out and puts a set of bagpipes down on the bar. The octopus moves around it, looking confused, picking up the pipes one at a time and putting them back down until the man says, "what's wrong? Can't you play it?" The octopus says, "play it? If I can figure out how to get its pajamas off, I'm gonna sleep with it!"
Ahem, for the good of the forum rules, I edited that for you.
I did laugh while I was editing though.
Clever...Quote:
Originally Posted by techgnome
Attachment 175569
Enjoy...
-tg
This just totally shocked me. My sisters husband is in a nursing facility. I talked to her tonight and asked if they have stopped visitors. She said they don't allow visitors but you can go and pickup a patient and take them anywhere you want then take them back. How that policy makes any sense is beyond me. He's late seventies with respiratory problems and she works at a hospital. I can't make any sense of how any of this is a good idea. The patients and loved ones who pick some one up are too emotionally involved to make the right decision but the professionals in charge of this facility are putting the most vulnerable peoples lives at risk. Like I said I am just shocked.
Do people not now understand what is meant by 'Risk Assessment' - without being told by so-called 'experts'?
To me, the biggest factor in all of the projections is the number of people who contracted Covid-19 and are either asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic and have not needed to seek medical attention (basically, they stay home and get better on their own, and are never tested). Most of the projections don't account for those people, but I have a feeling the number of people in those categories is huge. I wouldn't be surprised if it were 10, 20, or even 50 times the number of people who have officially tested positive in this country. That would mean that all of these scenarios of ventilators needed, ICU beds needed, etc. are going to end up being highly overestimated. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but it would give hope that all the bottom line numbers of this might not end up being so devastating from a humanitarian standpoint.
In a perfect world, samples of hundreds of random people would be taken in various areas and then those numbers could help extrapolate what the numbers of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic might actually currently be.
Not sure how under reporting case numbers results in higher projections. If your calculating a 20% growth on 1,000 cases it's 200 but if the actual cases numbers are 10,000 then it's 2,000. Maybe I'm just looking at it wrong. Hope your right. Right now New York is really starting to be stressed and New Orleans is quickly headed in that direction. I hope I'm not turning into Chicken Little.
I'm talking about the projections of total deaths, simultaneous ICU beds needed, simultaneous ventilators needed, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by wes4dbt
I would posit that essentially 0 of asymptomatic people die, are in an ICU, or are using a ventilator.
I would also posit that at most a tiny fraction of mildly symptomatic people die, are in an ICU, or are using a ventilator.
Simple example. Right now, the death rate is around 1.4% in the USA. That is from (Total Deaths)/(Confirmed Infected). Many predict that 50%-80% will eventually get Covid-19 in the USA. Optimistically, lets say that it is 50% of 350,000,000. And lets calculate 1.4% of the 50% of 350,000,000, and it is 2,450,000. That would be the projected total deaths nationwide if half the country was eventually infected. BUT the current "death rate" calculation assumes that we know everyone that is infected, which clearly we don't. That means the denominator is underestimated. The real denominator is higher. How much higher, who knows. The numerator is likely much more accurate. When you increase the denominator, the ratio as a whole decreases. So maybe the true death rate is 0.7%, or 0.5%, or even lower. When you then take those new percentages, the number of anticipated dead goes down by hundreds of thousands.
OB,
Yeah we're talking apples and oranges. I hope it's lower than .5% because that's a lot of people, even 0.1% 175,000 people. Maybe by the end of next week we'll have a better idea where this situation is heading. Right now it seems there is a huge range in possible outcomes.
Looks like it is getting bad there in the US, you've surpassed China in the number of cases.
Now America First means something...
The problem is that your calculation is based on a percentage of the total population, that's not how the projections are calculated. They're calculated by multiplying the death rate by the projected infection rate. If the death rate is being overestimated as you posit (and I suspect you're right) it means the infection rate is being underestimated by the same amount the death rate is being overestimated.Quote:
Simple example.
Quote:
To me, the biggest factor in all of the projections is the number of people who contracted Covid-19 and are either asymptomatic , or mildly symptomatic
I feel your being overly optimistic. and looking at the report from Imperial College London which was the report that apparently changed both the UK and US approach to the Virus there projections are as FD said calculated by multiplying the death rate by the projected infection rate.Quote:
Most of the projections don't account for those people, but I have a feeling the number of people in those categories is huge. I wouldn't be surprised if it were 10, 20, or even 50 times the number of people who have officially tested positive in this country. That would mean that all of these scenarios of ventilators needed, ICU beds needed, etc. are going to end up being highly overestimated. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic
you can see the entire report here and it makes sobering reading.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...26-03-2020.pdf
As you can see the report has been compiled by over 50 member of Imperial college who are either doctors or PHD fellows in the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and i suspect they know there stuff.
Trump is going to open everything back up in just over two weeks...we are all going to church Easter morning to celebrate. No worries..Quote:
Originally Posted by dee-u