Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

I "broke home quarantine" this weekend... had to. For sanity. Me and the family had been in the house all week. They;re home from school, and I'm working form home. We did stay social distanced from everyone though. In the morning we went to the berry farm and picked some strawberries. We got there right when they opened, so it was good, only a few others there and were spread out pretty good. Then I spent the better part of the afternoon kayaking on the river here... man that felt good. Again, plenty of distance between me and the few people there were in river was observed.

-tg

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Originally Posted by FunkyDexter

Italy has experienced a downturn in new cases. With Wuhan reporting no new cases it is starting to sound like this virus burns itself out fairly quickly... as long as people actually take the right measures and stay as isolated as possible (completely isolated if you're showing symptoms).

Stay home and stay safe. About the only thing you should be going out for, at this point, is to pick up groceries.

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That is also contingent on China accurately reporting what is going on. They didn't start out that way.

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Originally Posted by FunkyDexter

Italy has experienced a downturn in new cases. With Wuhan reporting no new cases it is starting to sound like this virus burns itself out fairly quickly... as long as people actually take the right measures and stay as isolated as possible (completely isolated if you're showing symptoms)..

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Its more likely that they are faking the number of new cases as to try to bring the hysteria and blame down and away from them.

I think that boat has sailed, so I don't believe either country is falsifying much, at this point. They just don't have anything to gain. Italy has already tanked their economy, and have taken the gold for per capita death rate, so what do they have left to gain?

China is a different matter, but I would expect their more afraid of an internal backlash than any external news. I'm just not sure whether falsifying or not would serve them better, at this point.

Trump already getting cold feet with the self-isolation recommendations nationwide.

Simplifying this down quite a bit, I imagine this can be distilled down to 2 graphs. The first graph is days of "lockdown" as the x-axis and "Negative economic impact" on the y-axis. I would imagine this would look somewhat parabolic. If there was no lockdown, the massive spread, illness, death, etc. would cause a significant negative economic impact. If the "lockdown" lasts too long, the negative economic impact would be as bad as if there were no lockdown. Smack dab in the middle is the vertex, where the negative economic impact is minimized.

The second graph is simply days of "lockdown" as the x-axis and "Number of total deaths" as the y-axis. This would likely look like a graph of y=1/x. At some point in this graph, as x increases, there is diminishing return in terms of the number of lives saved. And, overlayed with the first graph, we can see that there is a point after which the negative economic impact of each day of lockdown is increasing dramatically, while at the same time the number of lives saved by being locked down that additional day is essentially negligible.

Hopefully Trump lets the 15 day period complete in full before thinking that things can start opening back up again. Anything before then is too soon I believe.

I hope China isn't lying...Trump says he was told by China's President Xi, "By April, during the month of April, the heat generally kills this kind of virus, so that would be a good thing." I'm counting on being back to "normal" by then.

.......

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Italy may have made a mistake in counting, making no difference between patients dead by cause of coronavirus and the ones dead with coronavirus.

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I'm missing the distinction?

Keep in mind that without mass deployment of an effective vaccine we can probably expect as much as two years to pass before enough people have been exposed and recovered for "herd immunity" to be meaningful.

Until then we could see this peak and recede in several waves separated by a few weeks to two months each time.

Warm weather seems to make people less vulnerable but humidity might be an even more important factor.

I just returned from an appointment with a local wound and hyperbaric clinic and the nurse said medical folks are a bit alarmed that people think this is going away soon.

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Originally Posted by dilettante

Keep in mind that without mass deployment of an effective vaccine we can probably expect as much as two years to pass before enough people have been exposed and recovered for "herd immunity" to be meaningful.

Until then we could see this peak and recede in several waves separated by a few weeks to two months each time.

Warm weather seems to make people less vulnerable but humidity might be an even more important factor.

I just returned from an appointment with a local wound and hyperbaric clinic and the nurse said medical folks are a bit alarmed that people think this is going away soon.

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I agree and it makes me feel conflicted about the US\world lock down strategy if it is just going to resurface again. For now I believe and adhere to not inundating our medical system with the big curve we keep hearing about. But it makes me question how valuable that will have been if it just kicks back up again in different places and then circulates again. I'll stick with the experts but I feel personal reservations about our current strategy in that regard.

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

I hope China isn't lying...Trump says he was told by China's President Xi, "By April, during the month of April, the heat generally kills this kind of virus, so that would be a good thing." I'm counting on being back to "normal" by then.

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What would make you think that China even said that???

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Originally Posted by OptionBase1

Simplifying this down quite a bit, I imagine this can be distilled down to 2 graphs. The first graph is days of "lockdown" as the x-axis and "Negative economic impact" on the y-axis. I would imagine this would look somewhat parabolic.

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No. It'll be hyperbolic....cause everything about this is hyperbolic.


I'm not sure that there are many people in the middle on this. I went shopping before dawn this morning in hopes that the shelves would be stocked. They were stocked enough, but still noticeably down from where they had been two weeks ago. I didn't see crazy buying going on, though there sure were a lot of people there for that time of the morning.

I then went to pick up some irrigation supplies. That annoyed me, as I couldn't find everything I was looking for, which is kind of an absurd feeling, considering how many options I did have....so it was an irrational irrigation irritation sensation.

Still, as I was checking out, I got distracted by a guy loudly complaining that people were overreacting. So, I was kind of checked out while checking out at the checkout, and almost missed something. Still, I was able to check myself and check my list to see that not everything checked out while checking out, so I checked with the checker and she said I could run back to check on something. Once I returned, the guy was still complaining that people were overreacting, so I chucked a check at the checkout stand and left. It was kind of a checkered experience.

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

I'm missing the distinction?

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It's the difference between dying from the virus which causes respiratory distress, and dying from.... oh, lets say being hit by a beer truck... and yet still testing positive for COVID19... in the first case the virus caused the death, in the second, its a case of death with (but not by) the virus...

-tg

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Originally Posted by techgnome

It's the difference between dying from the virus which causes respiratory distress, and dying from.... oh, lets say being hit by a beer truck... and yet still testing positive for COVID19... in the first case the virus caused the death, in the second, its a case of death with (but not by) the virus...

-tg

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If the beer truck was carrying Corona...that would be ironic.

"Hey dija hear Bob died?"
"What? No!"
"Yeah, got hit by Corona-18"
"You mean COVID-19?"
"No, an 18-wheeler carrying Corona beer."

-tg

Deleted ......

Take a look
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkozG3IcXUU

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

What would make you think that China even said that???

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What makes you think Trump was telling the truth when he said that? Or anything else for that matter...

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-says-...-april-1486571

Well, if the heat of April kills the virus, then I needn't worry anymore. My body temperature is up around 98 degrees, and that's a whole lot warmer than April ever gets around here.

Lots of misinformation going around still and worryingly for you guys in the US, Trump is either listening to it or is a source or it.

I personally believe that we in the UK have been pretty complacent about it, we can see what is happening in Italy and Spain but we still waited and waited to lockdown and as such have likely made the problem worse and a lockdown likely longer.

Countries are still evolving there strategies for dealing with the Virus but what is clear is not locking down would be disastrous as would coming out to early from a lockdown.

In the UK they think we are two weeks away from running out of critical care beds for new patients, and this is one of the major issues, when countries run out of care beds and the system becomes overloaded a lot more people die.

You only have to look at Italy right now where there care system has been overwhelmed (and they have a pretty good health system) and they are getting some 600 deaths a day.

Just going by official UK figures the number of deaths if you dont lock down versus if you do can be the difference between 20,000 and 500,000. and there are only around 60 million of us. Because we locked down late experts are already changing that low figure to a possible 70,000 deaths.

If you were to extrapolate that to the US where you have almost 4 times the number of people, assuming that not everyone gets the virus that could be something like 1.5 million deaths.

I cant imagine the public in any country are going to accept these kinds of numbers and as the daily death rate climes in the UK and the US as it undoubtedly will, people realise that there is no other option but for an extended lock down.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

Well, if the heat of April kills the virus, then I needn't worry anymore. My body temperature is up around 98 degrees, and that's a whole lot warmer than April ever gets around here.

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I've heard conflicting opinions about the heat's effect on the virus... it also possible that initially it did have an effect, but that it's also mutating at a rapid rate such that it could become heat-resistant, in which case.... fork... here in South Carolina that's gonna be a problem (we currently have just over 200 cases, with 5 deaths)

-tg

honestly i don't have a clear idea yet but it looks terrifying
https://id2020.org/
https://www.gatesfoundation.org/What-We-Do

Here's an interesting map:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

An ESRI GIS map of the number of outbreaks by area. The US has made it to third place, at this point, and could take the gold, in the end.

Trump is having a town hall style meeting on Fox news. Fox is picking the submitted questions. It is just a platform for his propaganda. What a joke of a president we have.

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Originally Posted by TysonLPrice

What makes you think Trump was telling the truth when he said that? Or anything else for that matter...

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-says-...-april-1486571

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?????

I don't think we're communicating. My point was, why would you believe anything that Trump says? I don't, I haven't for 40 years.

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

?????

I don't think we're communicating. My point was, why would you believe anything that Trump says? I don't, I haven't for 40 years.

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I took:

What would make you think that China even said that???

Literally. Seems like we are on the same page about Trump's strained relationship with facts and reality.

I just realized there was something weird at the store the other day: Hot dogs were pretty nearly gone, and so were hot dog buns. However, you could get a bajillion hamburger buns and a fair amount of burger.

What's up with that? Have we decided to lower our standards of meat products as a response to the virus?

Hot dogs have the shelf life of uranium. My store has been out of lunch meat the last two times I went. Bacon and sausage, all gone. Plenty of toilet paper when I went yesterday.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

I just realized there was something weird at the store the other day: Hot dogs were pretty nearly gone, and so were hot dog buns. However, you could get a bajillion hamburger buns and a fair amount of burger.

What's up with that? Have we decided to lower our standards of meat products as a response to the virus?

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Its all the kids at home...they don't know any better...

.....

Fork.... I may have to start taking this thing seriously... we've just entered the second stage of the apocalypse...
https://www.wrdw.com/content/news/Wa...569065871.html
Waffle House is closing down some of its locations...

-tg

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Italy has experienced a downturn in new cases.

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It turns out I was wrong on this. I believe the figure was an early day figure, not the total day. Italy's still on an exponential increase. Apologies for the miss-information.

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Hopefully Trump lets the 15 day period complete in full before thinking that things can start opening back up again.

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15 days?! Dude, you're looking at 12 weeks, minimum! 15 days is the period you need to fully self isolate if you actually have the virus. It's the period you, personally, need to be quarantined for. The lockdowns are about delaying the spread of the virus for the whole country, it runs into months.

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I "broke home quarantine" this weekend... had to

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Sounds like you were actually pretty responsible. Over here we're saying that it's fine (recommended in fact) that you get out and get some exercise, but you maintain a distance of 2m from anyone else while you do it. so things like a walk in the park or kayaking are fine.

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I agree and it makes me feel conflicted about the US\world lock down strategy if it is just going to resurface again

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It's important to understand that the lockdowns aren't intended to stop the virus. They're intended to slow the spread so our emergency services are better able to cope. It reduces the height of the peak. As you and Dil have identified, this will resurge in waves (or just carry on at a consistent reduced rate) until we have built up a herd immunity. That's all part of the plan though.

@NSA, I think we've handled it fairly until the last couple of days. I feel the message to stay home came at about the right time but it's increasing clear that we've left some major point of confusion and haven't enforced it the way we should.

Failing to offer concrete answers for what would happen to gig economy workers and the self employed has the potential to be disastrous (might already have been so). Seriously, I phoned up the agency on Monday to cancel my cleaner and they were trying to talk me into letting her come. I know why. Both her and the agency could end up being hung out to dry by this but, seriously, ironing my shirts is NOT a critical function.

My sister and her partner's have a small fleet of minibuses they use to do school and airport runs. Needless to say that business has collapsed so, because they still have absolutely no idea what support they're going to get, my sister has taken a temp job stacking shelves at Aldi. Just for flavour, my sister has diabetes so is in the at risk group. Failure to isolate could literally kill her but she feels she has no choice.

The debate over whether to shut construction sites is ludicrous. Sure, keep critical infrastructure projects running, but there's a house conversion still going on 5 doors down from me. That could wait.

I also think the government have shown a habit of trying to slope issues off onto the public rather than taking ownership. Telling people to not go to pubs and restaurants instead of simply saying the venues had to close meant that some stayed open longer than they should and, surprise, surprise, people went out to them. That will have cost lives.

And I don't feel there's a ready source of information where we can enquire about shady edge cases. My Rental property in Cardiff has it's Landlord safety certificate due in a week. I don't know whether I should be getting that done. I think I should (it's a potential health and safety issue) but I don't know and there doesn't seem to be anyone I can ask.

Overall I think we're getting it roughly right in the UK but we REALLY need better and more concise information. That failure is going to cost lives.

Sorry for the wall of words and Shaggy wins the alliteration prize for post 312:afrog:

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@NSA, I think we've handled it fairly until the last couple of days. I feel the message to stay home came at about the right time but it's increasing clear that we've left some major point of confusion and haven't enforced it the way we should.

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I disagree with this China started it lockdown after 13 deaths we waited until there were over 300. Italy had less reported deaths before they locked down.

As we could see what was happening in Italy and Spain who at that point were essentially 2 -3 weeks ahead of us i feel it was negligent not to lockdown about 2 weeks earlier many more deaths could have been avoided and we could have put much less strain on the NHS.

Locking down was inevitable but it seems our government was until a week ago still trying to avoid it.

Also i hated the initial gov instructions telling people what they should do rather than ordering it, they were widely ignored in my area and from the news you can see all around the country.

Only when Boris announced the Lockdown did i finally think that he had taken it seriously and it was his first good response to the Virus.

I really hope i am wrong but from looking at the numbers and the responses elsewhere i think it wont be long until we are experiencing 500 - 600 deaths a day like Italy, everyday China's response is looking more and more impressive.

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I really hope i am wrong

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Me too but I think you're right about how it will progress from here. We've got big numbers coming.

The only point I differ with you on was how much difference an earlier lock down would have made vs the economic impact of that. I also think that up until a couple of weeks ago there was a possibility that milder measures that were being proposed (social distancing, cleanliness etc) could have kept a lid on it. That was the scientific advice while we were in the containment phase and I think the government were right to follow it. I don't think the public at large took those measures seriously enough (they were too busy buying friggin' bog roll), so here we are now.

But more importantly, I've just heard Trump announce that it's all going to be cleared up by Easter (aprox. two weeks away) and wouldn't it be beautiful to see all those churches packed with worshippers! Seriously?! No! No it effing wouldn't! I know we weren't going to politicise this thread but I'm going to say it: Trump is either delusional or deliberately misleading to the point of being genuinely dangerous to life. He, and his rhetoric, is going to be directly responsible for thousands of American deaths.

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Trump is either delusional or deliberately misleading to the point of being genuinely dangerous to life. He, and his rhetoric, is going to be directly responsible for thousands of American deaths.

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And it only took you three and a half years to figure that out :rolleyes:

Actually I know that isn't true about you. It was just the perfect opportunity to say it :p

I saw a Fox news report this morning that said a recent Gallop poll has his approval rate at handling the crisis at 60%. I just don't understand that.

Not three and half years to spot it, just three and half years to get angry enough to say it.

I don't like the tendency us on the left to portray everyone who disagrees with us as either stupid or evil. It's our absolute worst habit and lessens us as people. I like to think of myself as a compassionate lefty and part of that is taking other peoples opinions seriously, even when I disagree with them. With that in mind I've spent the recent years trying to write off the worst things Trump says as well meaning stupidity and I think of those who support him as wrong (in my opinion), but fundamentally decent people.

But at the point he's encouraging people, in the middle of the worst health crisis we have seen in over a century, to do exactly the opposite of what every health professional is saying, yeah, I got genuinely angry because there are plenty of people who will believe him. That speech is going to cause deaths.

edit> Please guys, don't go to church and more than you would go to the pub right now. Stay in. The only things you should be going out for are necessary groceries and exercise and even then, you should stay at least 2 metres apart from everybody else. You need to be prepared to do this for 3 months, possibly longer. even if you feel absolutely fine. If you're doing anything beyond that you're putting not just your own life at risk but the lives of everyone else.

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Originally Posted by FunkyDexter

Over here we're saying that it's fine (recommended in fact) that you get out and get some exercise, but you maintain a distance of 2m from anyone else while you do it. so things like a walk in the park or kayaking are fine.

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Two miles? That would be great. I just wish the snow was out of the mountains, cause I'd be all over that. As it is, here in the US we are supposed to maintain a distance of six feet. I only have TWO. What the heck am I supposed to do for the other four? I guess I could get a dog, but I don't have one currently. Therefore, I ended up buying two mannequins and tying them front and back when I go outside. I see how this works. Everybody is staying a good long distance away from me.

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The only point I differ with you on was how much difference an earlier lock down would have made vs the economic impact of that. I also think that up until a couple of weeks ago there was a possibility that milder measures that were being proposed (social distancing, cleanliness etc) could have kept a lid on it.

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I hear your argument but really thats almost exactly what Spain and Italy did and we could see what was happening there it was like looking into our own future and just shrugging thats what i have a problem with. People (and i include heads of governments in this) dont seem to want to believe the size of the problem until they can see the people dying with there own eyes.

The Economic impact could not be avoided, and locking down earlier would not mean that we would lock down for longer so i just dont get the argument about us some how mitigating the economic impact we haven't.

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People (and i include heads of governments in this) dont seem to want to believe the size of the problem

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Yeah, ^that. I also think people tend to think they're only harming themselves. They're not. They're harming everyone else.

@Shaggy, I can't help feeling this would be a perfect opportunity for one of your hikes. You can't catch Corona off a Grizzly (afaik).

edit> At last, some good news:D

interesting math
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6nLfCbAzgo

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Originally Posted by FunkyDexter

@Shaggy, I can't help feeling this would be a perfect opportunity for one of your hikes. You can't catch Corona off a Grizzly (afaik).

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I've thought that, as well, but the weather says otherwise. We're in the shoulder season. The days are too warm for winter camping, too cold for summer camping. Avalanche danger is high, lakes are frozen over...and now I couldn't fly somewhere further south even if I wanted to. Had this happened at a different time, I might have just disappeared into the mountains for a month, but can't do that, at the moment.

Code:

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I only have TWO

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What about an octopus? Eight arms and no hands...what kind of cruel joke is that :p

Yeah, there are a whole lot of suckers among the octopi.

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Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker

Yeah, there are a whole lot of suckers among the octopi.

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If you are going to make puns you should come better armed than that...

You guys have got to be squidding me.

A man walks into a bar with an octopus...

...he sets the octopus on the bar and says to the bartender, "I'll bet you $50 this octopus can play any instrument you have." The bartender agrees and directs him to a piano in the corner. After the octopus sits down and plays a few bars the man asks the bartender to pay up. "Hold on" says the bartender and hands over a guitar. The octopus takes the guitar, gives it a quick tune and plays a little song. The man again asks the bartender to pay up. "Just a minute, I think I've got something else here." The bartender disappears into the back room for a couple of minutes, comes back out and puts a set of bagpipes down on the bar. The octopus moves around it, looking confused, picking up the pipes one at a time and putting them back down until the man says, "what's wrong? Can't you play it?" The octopus says, "play it? If I can figure out how to get its pajamas off, I'm gonna sleep with it!"

Ahem, for the good of the forum rules, I edited that for you.

I did laugh while I was editing though.

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Originally Posted by techgnome

The true failure is the inability to tell which is which!

-tg

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Clever...

Attachment 175569

Enjoy...

-tg

This just totally shocked me. My sisters husband is in a nursing facility. I talked to her tonight and asked if they have stopped visitors. She said they don't allow visitors but you can go and pickup a patient and take them anywhere you want then take them back. How that policy makes any sense is beyond me. He's late seventies with respiratory problems and she works at a hospital. I can't make any sense of how any of this is a good idea. The patients and loved ones who pick some one up are too emotionally involved to make the right decision but the professionals in charge of this facility are putting the most vulnerable peoples lives at risk. Like I said I am just shocked.

Do people not now understand what is meant by 'Risk Assessment' - without being told by so-called 'experts'?

To me, the biggest factor in all of the projections is the number of people who contracted Covid-19 and are either asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic and have not needed to seek medical attention (basically, they stay home and get better on their own, and are never tested). Most of the projections don't account for those people, but I have a feeling the number of people in those categories is huge. I wouldn't be surprised if it were 10, 20, or even 50 times the number of people who have officially tested positive in this country. That would mean that all of these scenarios of ventilators needed, ICU beds needed, etc. are going to end up being highly overestimated. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but it would give hope that all the bottom line numbers of this might not end up being so devastating from a humanitarian standpoint.

In a perfect world, samples of hundreds of random people would be taken in various areas and then those numbers could help extrapolate what the numbers of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic might actually currently be.

Not sure how under reporting case numbers results in higher projections. If your calculating a 20% growth on 1,000 cases it's 200 but if the actual cases numbers are 10,000 then it's 2,000. Maybe I'm just looking at it wrong. Hope your right. Right now New York is really starting to be stressed and New Orleans is quickly headed in that direction. I hope I'm not turning into Chicken Little.

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Originally Posted by wes4dbt

Not sure how under reporting case numbers results in higher projections. If your calculating a 20% growth on 1,000 cases it's 200 but if the actual cases numbers are 10,000 then it's 2,000. Maybe I'm just looking at it wrong. Hope your right. Right now New York is really starting to be stressed and New Orleans is quickly headed in that direction. I hope I'm not turning into Chicken Little.

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I'm talking about the projections of total deaths, simultaneous ICU beds needed, simultaneous ventilators needed, etc.

I would posit that essentially 0 of asymptomatic people die, are in an ICU, or are using a ventilator.
I would also posit that at most a tiny fraction of mildly symptomatic people die, are in an ICU, or are using a ventilator.

Simple example. Right now, the death rate is around 1.4% in the USA. That is from (Total Deaths)/(Confirmed Infected). Many predict that 50%-80% will eventually get Covid-19 in the USA. Optimistically, lets say that it is 50% of 350,000,000. And lets calculate 1.4% of the 50% of 350,000,000, and it is 2,450,000. That would be the projected total deaths nationwide if half the country was eventually infected. BUT the current "death rate" calculation assumes that we know everyone that is infected, which clearly we don't. That means the denominator is underestimated. The real denominator is higher. How much higher, who knows. The numerator is likely much more accurate. When you increase the denominator, the ratio as a whole decreases. So maybe the true death rate is 0.7%, or 0.5%, or even lower. When you then take those new percentages, the number of anticipated dead goes down by hundreds of thousands.

OB,

Yeah we're talking apples and oranges. I hope it's lower than .5% because that's a lot of people, even 0.1% 175,000 people. Maybe by the end of next week we'll have a better idea where this situation is heading. Right now it seems there is a huge range in possible outcomes.

Looks like it is getting bad there in the US, you've surpassed China in the number of cases.

Now America First means something...

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Simple example.

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The problem is that your calculation is based on a percentage of the total population, that's not how the projections are calculated. They're calculated by multiplying the death rate by the projected infection rate. If the death rate is being overestimated as you posit (and I suspect you're right) it means the infection rate is being underestimated by the same amount the death rate is being overestimated.

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To me, the biggest factor in all of the projections is the number of people who contracted Covid-19 and are either asymptomatic , or mildly symptomatic

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Most of the projections don't account for those people, but I have a feeling the number of people in those categories is huge. I wouldn't be surprised if it were 10, 20, or even 50 times the number of people who have officially tested positive in this country. That would mean that all of these scenarios of ventilators needed, ICU beds needed, etc. are going to end up being highly overestimated. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic

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I feel your being overly optimistic. and looking at the report from Imperial College London which was the report that apparently changed both the UK and US approach to the Virus there projections are as FD said calculated by multiplying the death rate by the projected infection rate.

you can see the entire report here and it makes sobering reading.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...26-03-2020.pdf

As you can see the report has been compiled by over 50 member of Imperial college who are either doctors or PHD fellows in the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and i suspect they know there stuff.

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Originally Posted by dee-u

Looks like it is getting bad there in the US, you've surpassed China in the number of cases.

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Trump is going to open everything back up in just over two weeks...we are all going to church Easter morning to celebrate. No worries..