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What's your point? States are at various stages. Ny is definitely though the first wave, Ca. Tx not so much.
No one said this. If you disagree with what's been said then rebut them.Quote:
"Trump is the COVID Antichrist" then facts then "but, but..."
Hey now!!! You aren't allowed to count moose when calculating population density. You're only allowed to count full humans and those who are at least 2/3 human. Moose and were-moose don't count. They don't get COVID.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
My point is that turning the pandemic into a political football isn't helping anyone... anyone but the forces of evil who oppose Trump for all of the wrong reasons.
He's a buffoon. He does a lot of bad. But the alternatives are far worse on both sides of the political aisle.
Yeah. But what about Sasquatch, Dogman, and those Grey Aliens?Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
They're all fair game.
While we can all agree the UK has had a crap response to the corona virus i would't be so quick to compare figures.
By all accounts in the US you are not including deaths in care homes in all states in your figures while we in the UK are, i would put money on your deaths per million to be pretty much the same as ours if not slightly higher as you guys had the same crappy response we had.
Also i still dont get what your point is about coming out of lockdown in the UK we now have around 4000 cases a day across the whole country, and many still think we are coming out to quickly and those figure are at least still currently dropping between 2 - 4 % a day.
Any US state that has the Virus under control should most probably be reopening particularly if you have test and trace setup so more local outbreaks can be dealt with, but what clear is there are a number of states including Florida and Texas where cases are rising.
Florida for instance has gone from somewhere around 800 on the 4th of May back up to around 3,200 which is a significant rise
Texas has just reported around 5,500 new cases per day as of yesterday and rising
I dont know how you can even say that, Trump is a terrible President, Biden might not be a good President and yes he is flawed but just by doing a bang average job he would be better than Trump.Quote:
He's a buffoon. He does a lot of bad. But the alternatives are far worse on both sides of the political aisle.
What happened in the US is that the feds largely abdicated any responsibility, which left it up to the states. Some states responded very well, others did not. We end up with a patchwork quilt of responses. Fortunately, some of the states that responded the worst happen to also be states that even the virus would rather not visit. Idaho responded well, but has such a small population that it wasn't all that big a deal (and we might not be able to handle it if it was). However, if we are really ramping up tracing, it hasn't been talked up very much. I know we are doing some, I'm just not sure that it is anywhere near adequate, or ever will be. That patchwork response is continuing. What we are seeing is the result of the response we had. It's not national, it's state by state. Of course, people will spread the virus across state lines, so it won't be contained state by state, but the results we are seeing is largely the result of the different responses that make up the patchwork quilt that is health care in this country.
Meanwhile, the rise in cases in Florida either means that the virus is taking spring break, or is feeling ready to retire. Frankly, it SHOULD have taken off there far earlier and far more severely than it did. One of the oddities that may eventually get studied in this epidemic is why Florida took so long to see such a rise. They had it all: High population, no initial response, meager and reluctant eventual response, elderly population, LOTS of migratory movement from hotspots like NYC. They were an ideal incubator, yet their response was oddly delayed.
How do you contact trace 36,000 people (yesterdays new cases)? 3,600 would be a struggle.
As for Florida, earlier reports seem to indicate the Governor was actively trying to hide the true amount of of cases. I seem to remember one health department worker claiming to have been fire because she would go alone with the program, also if you don't test then you don't have official cases. Just a couple of guesses.
Yeah, Florida is a piece of work, and always has been.
The way you contract trace is using paintball guns....I have no idea how that would work, it just seems entertaining.
It's scattered, though we've already seen the current list of "hot" places.
California sees 69% Covid-19 rise in two days as LA county has most cases in US
Also:
No idea why Florida wasn't mentioned there.Quote:
Record highs have been reported in Arizona, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas and Oklahoma. North Carolina and South Carolina each set hospitalization records.
Texas, which began lifting lockdowns on 1 May, has seen hospitalizations double and new cases triple in two weeks.
Alarming spike in coronavirus sparks fears California is ‘starting to lose this battle’
Quote:
California recorded a second-consecutive day of new daily coronavirus cases, recording 6,652 new cases statewide Tuesday. (Los Angeles Times)
Went to the doctor today for a followup (just ColoGuard results) then pharmacy for a TDAP vaccine shot. Both seemed to have relaxed precautions a little.
I was able to get in to see the doc bypassing the entry screening. Mentioned that, they said it was a no-no but entry doors are unlocked and many signs have come down. Ok. They had called me earlier today to screen by phone first though, and I mask up when I go out anyway. Only flaw is nobody took my temp before I got in.
Sign said "two people per elevator" but 4 of us got in, including an unmasked child in a stroller. Cringe.
I asked why I saw so many guys come in to see the doc with their wives, who went into the exam rooms with them. Clerk said they aren't supposed to... but somebody isn't paying attention.
The doc actually pulled her mask down after coming into the room. Weird. I commented on it, she said since she was substituting and I don't know her already she wanted me to see her face. Ok. But after that she masked up again. I wasn't mask-shaming... but holy hell.
Things are getting lax.
This wasn't some doc-in-the-box place. It's in the Internal Medicine Residency adjacent to a major hospital.
Something on a lighter note.
I made a point of giving a little wave to people entering and leaving while sitting in the waiting room. Yeah, I arrived early and got bored after going through the visit questionnaire about prescriptions. All of these people are strangers to me and even with a mask on I'm sure they realized they don't even casually know me. I've only recently started going to the doc there.
Just the same in every case I could see a positive reaction. I hope the gesture helped brighten the day for a few people.
We're all feeling isolated these days to one degree or another.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxxl5I0B7bgQuote:
A very creative study published on April 30th 2020
“We show that the risk of severe COVID-19 cases among patients with severe Vit D deficiency is 17.3% while the equivalent figure for patients with normal Vit D levels is 14.6% (a reduction of 15.6%)”
Get your vitamin D levels up, take your zinc supplements. Cheap, easy, and there is no downside.
If you hang in toward the end he also mentions a correlation between use of ibuprofen and immune system dangers. You might want to ask your doctor about that... and all of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcIJFhTxuGYQuote:
Coronavirus infections in the U.S. have surged to the highest level in months with nearly 35,000 cases in one day as New York, Connecticut and New Jersey start a new quarantine policy.
Yeah i forgot to mention California, i have to say if i lived in any one of those states (Florida,Texas,California e.t.c) i would be very worried right now.Quote:
California sees 69% Covid-19 rise in two days as LA county has most cases in US
They maybe forced into another lockdown at some point whether the like it or not.
I find it crazy that many of these states reopened bars as normal with no real social distancing measures, what did they think was going to happen?
The thing i am most worried about over here in the UK, is that we are reopening pubs and bars form the 4th of July, they are supposed to follow "covid secure guidelines" such as table service only, and social distancing measures, but how many will really follow that and as people get drunk how many will not properly follow the rules.
I thought they were just going to open beer gardens first but apparently not, i for one i want be going to any pubs or bars for a while but they will almost certainly be full of young people who are bursting to get out and back to normal and now think that everything is ok! (as the pubs are open)
Google Translate:
Chinese scientists have made major breakthroughs in the research of new coronavirus antibodies. A team led by Chen Wei, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a researcher at the Academy of Military Medical Sciences, has discovered the first highly efficient neutralizing monoclonal antibody targeting the N-terminal domain of spike protein. At 22:00 Beijing time on June 22nd, the international top academic journal "Science" published the research results online. This is another world-class scientific research achievement after the adenovirus vector recombinant new crown vaccine developed by Chen Wei's team first entered the Phase II clinical trial in the world.
A lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by dreammanor
The bottom line is this: We don't have any vaccine, the rest is just science. Major breakthroughs are a dime a dozen, because everybody thinks theirs is a major one. To put it in perspective, about a decade back we had a major breakthrough in solar cells that would potentially triple the conversion efficiency. Those still haven't made it to the mass market, and may never do so.
You say it's getting lax, but you'd find that what you saw was pretty tight compared to the way it has been out here for a month, or more. That is likely a part of why we are seeing such a strong resurgence. I'm not sure that we ever quite reached the level that you are considering lax.Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante
Well I did stop wearing a mask while driving most of the time. Got worried about other drivers spraining their "driving finger."
This is one of the things I've been wondering about. Since I haven't been doing any traveling, of late, I don't know what is normal in other states. My sister, over in the Seattle area, talked about people being pretty strict with masks. She hinted at there being a fair amount of mask shaming if you weren't wearing one.
In Idaho, I would say that stores like Home Depot never had more than 40% mask wearing by customers. Staff wore masks for a couple weeks, then stopped. Almost no customers wear masks there. Wal-Mart peaked around 70%, with all staff required to wear them. By now, though, while the staff is still masked, that's pretty nearly an indicator of an employee, as mask wearing by the public is probably below 10%. One other supply store, has probably 70% staff wearing masks, while only a few percent of customers are masked. Mask wearing outside of stores appears to be 0%.
We're one of the states seeing a dramatic increase, at least in this area, though we are starting from a very low base (~25 cases two weeks back, 125 the next week, then 300). Still, I feel like the public health organizations are struggling to get people to believe there's an issue. As a percentage of the population, 300 is insignificant, but the problem with an exponential increase is that it isn't significant...until it very much is, and the change happens fast.
Are other parts of the country paying more attention?
Huh? What? You say something?Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
-tg
Is there a way to known if there are more cases because the virus is spreading or because there are much more tested people because just looking at the number of new cases is not enough :confused:
it depends. if they report the number of tests, sure.. if they don't, then no. Here inSouth Carolina, they report daily thee umber of new cases in the last 24 hrs, deaths, as well as the testing rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Delaney
-tg
We can never know how many people have it, unless we test everyone - and for a mixture of reasons that isn't going to happen.
Increasing the amount of testing means you get a clearer picture, but because only a tiny fraction of people are tested the picture is still full of gaps.
The best measure we've got is how many people need to be in hospital because of it, and from what I understand most countries aren't sharing that information (many aren't even listing excess deaths, which would help count people who weren't tested for the virus).
In terms of mask wearing, in my neighbourhood we did have about 20% of people wearing masks a few weeks ago, but now it seems to only be me :confused:
I can't say much about general mask usage, since I have avoided getting out often.
But that unmasked kid in a stroller... I had mentioned to the Mom that masks on people must confuse little kids since they can't see faces. We all know kids process faces just as we all do. She said he just can't keep it on, but she was wearing one herself.
The doc and I also had a brief conversation on the problem of masks and speech comprehension. She said it was a particular issue for her with older patients. She has an East Indian accent. I was thinking lip-reading is used by all of us more than we always realize. I have worked with many Indians, have an Indian family right across the street, another around the corner, etc. Maybe "old" to her is a lot older than me, but she is very young (still in Residency).
Small and pretty (Horace Wimp reference, sorry)... and no, I'm not a dirty old man. Just an old man who doesn't get out. My neighbors have a son her age though and they've asked me to keep an eye out. I think they are kidding. They are ELO fans.
Yes, you look at excess deaths. Data sampling shenanigans can't really affect that figure.Quote:
Is there a way to known if there are more cases because the virus is spreading or because there are much more tested people
For now you can still look at the reported cases per day:-
Attachment 177682
Taken from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. So the US really isn't over its first wave in any meaningful way and should not be opening up at a National level at this point. I do think state/localised opening up is feasible if you can control people travelling between zones but I don't know how feasible that is.
The noises I'm hearing coming out of Trump indicate that you really won't be able to look at anything other than excess deaths soon. He is saying that he wants to stop testing because testing finds more cases (well... dur) and will be defunding 13 testing centres from the end of the month, including 7 in Texas which is undergoing a spike as we speak.
The old way to solve problem by hiding it... or by replacing it with a new problem...
He may not be able to. Governors have more power in this matter than Trump does. His views aren't even getting all that much air time.
@ Shaggy : That's true. Forgive me, I forgot about the USA structure with the states that are like small countries with their own laws and government. In fact that gives interesting independence to the states.
There are factors like the "Commerce Clause" of the US Constitution which courts have declared restricts the States in many ways.
It can be hard to regulate business, impossible to have tariffs on imports, etc. That's why the "tri state travel ban" imposed by New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut recently is all but ignored. Legal precedent makes such bans easy to challenge.
This also caused a lot of agriculture and industry to move from North to South to flee labor and environmental protections before the next phase that moved them offshore.
Yeah, there's a constant tension between states and feds, different regions, and so forth. The net result is that each state is like a leaky petri dish running experiments on various things.
There have been border closures due to this virus, but they are more suggestions than reality, and that's the only way it could be. Even for a state with so few border crossings as Idaho, actually closing the border would be nearly impossible. For states like CA, it wouldn't even approach the realm of possibility.
Yeah Federal - States laws have never been clear to me.
Take Marijuana laws - Fed = Illegal Some States = Legal - within those states, cities Legal/Illegal hell I don't know. In Modesto we dispensaries, then they close them, then they open back up. lol
The Fed do hold the purse strings on a lot of different programs so if they want to get their way they threaten to withhold money.
I haven't found the source of this research report, and I cannot confirm whether the following report is true.
This also doesn't have a link to the actual study, but here it another article in english:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23X2HQ
It does, however, state that it hasn't been peer reviewed (which is basically everything related to covid19 so far), and that it is potentially a false positive.
Probably bats hitching rides on shipping out of China. May have been going on long before the virus jumped to humans.
Are bats in the US manufactured in China?
My dad always taught me "there is no problem too big to run away from"...:cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Delaney
Taking a swing at that question, I would say no. China couldn't get to first base against American bat makers. They would be three up and three down when it comes to that...Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
I thought everyone knew that bats are made in Louisville...Quote:
Originally Posted by TysonLPrice
-tg
Some US data by State:
Rt COVID-19
Of course these charts still aggregate dissimilar areas within States. One urban megalopolis will dominate an entire State though it might reflect less than 5% of its area, and be diluted by the rest of the State's better numbers. Nothing separates out mob populations like the mass march participants and gin-mill habitues clustered in big cities and near colleges.
So they don't really tell you much you can use in real life. You need county-level numbers and preferably county-cluster numbers since that may be too finely divided.
Yeah, I pretty much stopped looking at state numbers. What's the point? Several counties in this state have zero cases, yet the state, as a whole, is seeing a rapid rise in cases. It's all the "gin-mill habitues", according to the contact tracing, or at least that's what started the spread. By now, the spread has gone farther afield, yet remains concentrated in the high population parts of the state.
Even those State maps color-coded by county are a joke.
In order to keep down to 10 or more colors they choose to use a log scale. Otherwise they would show just the hotspots with the rest of the State looking all but free of cases. Can't have that, it isn't politically correct.
Slightly better maps show per-capita figures by county. No need to use a log scale then, yet you retain a useful Statewide presentation. It can amplify for counties of very low populations because you still have to use coarse granularity to avoid needing hundreds of colors/shades.
Above, Missaukee and Gogebic counties each had 1 death, yet they show blacker than anywhere else.
Ugh, honestly, I wish people would stop doing this. Outside of academic papers I don't think I've ever seen a log scale used to do anything other than mislead.Quote:
they choose to use a log scale
Yeah, just measure the board feet and be done with it. There's no point in using a log scale, the weight depends on....oh wait, that's not the type of log scale you were talking about.
You should weigh your thoughts more carefully...or at least scale them back a bit :pQuote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
Unless you're in Louisville, making bats... then you would want to use a log scale...Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
-tg
Bat manufacture would filter any ash out of your log scale.
There's no need to measure a board because Plank's constant.
Not bats after all, sounds like little sluggers themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCRBqmQxv0
Just got back from some stores, and it has been a bit eye opening, though the real results remain masked.
I reported, not too long ago, that Home Depot was almost entirely mask free. That's no longer the case. Employees are once again entirely masked and customers were probably between 20-40% masked, which is by far the highest level I have seen since the outbreak began in Idaho. The same seemed to be true everywhere. Wal-Mart has long had higher compliance than other places that I've been to, and they're up to around 50-70% compliance, which is a strong resurgence from where they were just a week back.
I'm not sure I can account for this. While it is true that Idaho has seen a surge of cases, the levels were down around 25/week and are now only 300-500/wk. That's a large increase, but that's for the two most heavily populated counties in the state with around 600-800 K people, so we're really at a very tiny percentage. Of course, an exponential increase can go from low to high in an awful hurry, but what really intrigues me is that the state was never all that keen on masks, and now seems to be coming back around to them, and I'm not sure why. I haven't heard any strong statements from any leaders in the state, as there was back in April, so this seems to be something of a community spread of a viewpoint.
The media seem to have been on a bit of a rampage raising the alarm. CNN is good about misleading graphics, as below.
Not only do they use a compressed 5-color palette to exaggerate, they say misleading things like "Week vs. Previous Week" when their graphic is really comparing figures a full month apart.
Attachment 177715
Something must be up. I checked two pizza places and both have narrowed their hours starting this week, opening later and closing earlier.
Yeah, one place I tried today, which had opened last week, was closed completely. It's just weird.
You didn't point out another issue with that graphic. Idaho certainly is up by more than 50%. It's up by far more than 50%. In fact, perhaps 500%, but that's largely because the rate was so low to begin with. You've pointed that out before, as have others.
It's kind of pandemic porn....with statistics. Everything is about making it a bit more shocking.
Is this reasonable?
Sounds like fake news. Around here we have a number of options:
Attachment 177720
Don't know where you got that little headline but doesn't seem right.
This is just one of many responses if you Google the question, that say the same thing,
This one is from WedMDQuote:
How much do COVID-19 tests cost?
ANSWER
The COVID-19 test should be free, as it is covered by the Families First Coronavirus Response Act. However, if you get a bill, you should reach out to your insurance or Medicaid, or Medicare.
I image that there might some private medical labs that you can go to outside of what the government covers and they can charge what ever they want. don't know that for a fact.
Yeah, there are a number of common vaccinations that cost me even after insurance if I get them at the doctor's office. But I can get them at a pharmacy and they're free after insurance. Not so sure what they might cost without any insurance.
Well, if you guys are bouncing, we're bouncing with you. We've got our first localised lockdown in Leicester.
Excellent opportunities for alliteration aside, this is not quite as bad as I just made it sound. They're not actually locking down at this stage but rather they're not going to proceed with lifting some of the measures such as opening pubs and restaurants. Whether it should be locking back down remains to be seen I guess.