This is only reflecting what people actually do, anyway. There really is little reason to buy a full blown 'retail' OS.
Places like Newegg have sold 'system builder'-like licenses for a while, which are small license packs. It hasn't restricted larger, commercial, system builders from obtaining scalable licenses, or licenses with other terms (such as 'key free' installs). Such licenses are and have generally not been available through retail channels.
$40 does look like a decent upgrade price-point. If they can market Win8 to the current users properly, and convince them they need to upgrade, the cost isn't going to be a huge factor. However, the benefits gained from an upgrade are actually very few, especially for the average innernet user. I think Windows 7 only became prevalent because people either bought a new computer, and Microsoft removed XP from the market (so small scale builders had no choice but to use windows 7). Win 7 brought basically nothing to the table; the difference with Win8 is the perceived cross-hardware feature (i.e. tablet/phone).





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