Post Race!

[dday9]

It's just been incredibly busy on my end.

[dday9]

My kids have extracurriculars every weekday and some Saturdays for the next several weeks, I'm wrapping up a fairly large change order on some of my 1099 work, and I'm launching a SaaS product; not to mention my normal W-2 job.

[Peter Porter]

My employer is closing our facility at the end of June, but I'm not worried.

[Peter Porter]

The five month severance pay is almost equal to what I currently make, and I'm sure I'll find work elsewhere.

[Peter Porter]

After June, I'll have plenty of time for old projects I set aside.

[wes4dbt]

First will be a couple days of training (Amtrak, specifically)

Two days from Idaho to DC that seem pretty good.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I shouldn't have said "a couple". I just wasn't sure what it would be at the time, though I thought it would be a few. At best, it will be roughly four days. It's hard to count, and actual experience may be quite different. The key is that I have to change trains in Chicago. Many things could go wrong with that change. Many things could go wrong before that. It will be an adventure.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Well Trump is dodging bullets again. I wonder what the record is? Unfortunately, in the US, since the shots were fired from outside the security perimeter, it doesn't have to be about him. We have a whole lot too many opportunity shootings.

[wes4dbt]

The key is that I have to change trains in Chicago.

I took a train out of Chicago once. That's a big station but I found the train ride very enjoyable. Nice seats, much more comfortable than a plan. But that was 45yrs ago. lol

Edit:

If you had left on your trip a few days earlier, you might have been sitting next to this guy. The latest to let politics make him nuts. He didn't have much of a plan. Just bum rush all the security. He didn't even make it to the same floor as dinner.

Blanche also said investigators suspect he traveled by train from Los Angeles to Chicago and then Chicago to Washington, D.C., before checking into the Washington Hilton.

[dday9]

I’ve taken the train from New Orleans to Denver and one of our stops was Chicago. It’s a beautiful station, although it was under construction when I went.

[dday9]

The five month severance pay is almost equal to what I currently make, and I'm sure I'll find work elsewhere.

I will certainly keep you in my prayers (not sure if you're religious or not). When I left back in August, the job market was very tough, hopefully it's loosened up a bit and you can find something quickly.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Tough here, but is it tough there?

[wes4dbt]

It has to be a unnerving for young coders everywhere nowadays. With AI's current abilities and the likelihood of their abilities to significantly increase in the next 5 to 10yrs, it feels like there will be very limited job opportunities for general developers. Or a general developer will need a different skill set.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I had lunch with a friend of mine who is/was a developer for Apple. He told me that in the last five months his job has completely changed. Whereas he had been coding, now it's all supervising AI agents and doing code reviews on agent generated code. He said they only have to step in and write stuff largely when the agents have gone off the rails.

Not only does that suggest that writing code might be going the way of the COBOL, it also suggests where the new jobs might appear: herding agents. Knowing coding would still be important even if all you are doing is reviewing, but also, being able to describe a task adequately for an agent to do a good job might be a thing. The number of such jobs would likely be considerably less than the number of programming jobs today, though. Technology tends to work that way. One guy with a chainsaw could do the work of dozens with crosscut saws. One guy with a modern tree felling machine (don't know the proper name for them, and I think there are a couple different types) can do the work of a dozen guys with chainsaws. In each case, the number of workers declines for the amount of goods produced.

[dday9]

I’m constantly asked if I’m worried about AI replacing my job. My answer is always the same: until a client knows exactly what they want, I’ll be safe.

It doesn’t mean that I’ll be doing what I do now, but at the end of the day, LLMs are not a replacement for general intelligence.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I'm not constantly asked if I'm worried about AI taking my job, but if I were, I'd reply, "what job?"

I like that.

[Peter Porter]

Tough here, but is it tough there?

Hopefully not.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Gas prices are interesting. I filled up the car on Friday, on the expectation that prices would rise. In fact, they fell, though only by two cents. That just seems weird, to me. Why two cents at that one station? Did they get a new shipment of gas that was just a little bit cheaper?

[wes4dbt]

CA has some interesting gas prices. They are averaging over $6 per gallon, with some places over $7. CA is always some of the highest in the nation.

I was always surprised how long the lines were at our local Costco. They would be five or six deep. Their prices are low not low enough I would wait 30min to fill up. There is the 4% cash back if you use their credit card, that could add up @ $5/gallon.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Prices in WA are just behind you. They generally appear to be below $6/gal, though not by a huge amount. I did find one place with gas prices down around $5.10/gal, but that was on a reservation, which can have strange prices. In this case, it was a reservation for the odd Walmartian tribe with their blue plumage with yellow trim.

[dday9]

Unleaded is $3.79 at the Sam's Club in Houma right now. I would put it at "uncomfortable" but not yet "unbearable".

I genuinely don't understand how people can afford gas at $6 a gallon. My truck has a 26-gallon tank, it would cost $156 to fill it up from empty at $6 a gallon.

[Zvoni]

Lucky b*st***.....

End of April i went on a trip from southwestern Germany to northeastern Spain.
about 960 km drive (~600 miles)

I had to refill in southern france.
45 liters Diesel at 2.35 € per liter

--> at todays rates...
2.35 EUR = 2.77 USD
1 gl = 3.785 Liters
--> 10.73 USD / gl

Yeah, continue to complain about fuel-prices..... *GROWL*

[dday9]

Chawwww.

Mais, diesel is more expensive than gasoline but still nowhere near $10.73/gallon. In fact, right now it's less than half that (compared to that Southern France price) at the same Sam's Club: $5.07/gallon.

[dday9]

End of April i went on a trip from southwestern Germany to northeastern Spain.
about 960 km drive (~600 miles)

That also blows my mind. You go through 2 countries (maybe 3, depending on the route) through the span on 600 miles.

Meanwhile, if I traveled the same amount of miles I'd travel between 2 states unless I go towards Florida and that's only because Mississippi and Alabama take up ~140m of coast line (the little red area):

[Shaggy Hiker]

Do that measurement in New England. How many states can you hit with that many miles? All of the New England states, or just most of them. I'm not in a good place to measure, currently, and there isn't a good line that hits all of them. Rhode Island is hard to get to by accident. It's not on the way to anywhere.

Meanwhile, diesel in Washington state is around $6.35-$6.50, with gas being about a dollar less, though I saw several places at $5.85/gal as I was heading to the train station, so perhaps the price rose further.

[wes4dbt]

Lucky b*st***.....

End of April i went on a trip from southwestern Germany to northeastern Spain.
about 960 km drive (~600 miles)

I had to refill in southern france.
45 liters Diesel at 2.35 € per liter

--> at todays rates...
2.35 EUR = 2.77 USD
1 gl = 3.785 Liters
--> 10.73 USD / gl

Yeah, continue to complain about fuel-prices..... *GROWL*

Where dday live has some of our countries lowest fuel prices. Where I live gas is well over $6gal and diesel is @ $7.50gal. That equates to over a 50% increase from before the war with Iran. I don't know how much fuel prices in Europe have increased. I know historically Europe's fuel prices have been substantially higher than in the US.

[Zvoni]

Where dday live has some of our countries lowest fuel prices. Where I live gas is well over $6gal and diesel is @ $7.50gal. That equates to over a 50% increase from before the war with Iran. I don't know how much fuel prices in Europe have increased. I know historically Europe's fuel prices have been substantially higher than in the US.

From 1.60€ / Liter Diesel average before Iran-War up to 2.50€ / Liter during War-Peak.

It's relaxed now. Went to fuel up yesterday, and it was 1.85€ / Liter Diesel.

And yes, Fuel-prices in Europe are considerably higher, but that's more due to taxes.
E.g. regular pre-war tax in Germany on Diesel was 0.47 € (47 €-cents) per Liter, 65€-cent on regular gasoline (unleaded 95)
additionally, there is a CO2-Surcharge, which averages at 18 €-Cent per Liter.
VAT is 19% in Germany

[wes4dbt]

Is that VAT in addition to the 65cents a liter gas tax?

65cents a liter is really high already. Adding another 19% is harsh. Almost half the cost of gas would be taxes.

[Zvoni]

Is that VAT in addition to the 65cents a liter gas tax?

65cents a liter is really high already. Adding another 19% is harsh. Almost half the cost of gas would be taxes.

Spot on. That's Germany for you.

(net price + "energy tax" (those 65 cent) + CO2-Surcharge) x VAT (19%)

[Arnoutdv]

The same idea in the Netherlands:
Price per liter: € 2.622

Production: 44%
Margin: 7%
Excise tax: 32%
VAT: 21%

[wes4dbt]

That's interesting. I can see why other transportation options are more popular in Europe. We're pretty spoiled in the US, we drive everywhere, especially on the West Coast. Mass transit systems here are not very abundant and not used much. No subways in the Western states.

[dday9]

You can't have a subway in Louisiana. Although, New Orleans has street cars.

There's a quasi-public/private department in Houma that setup a bus service between Houma and Thibodaux that was supposed to be "self-sufficient", but it's been nearly 15 years, and it's never come close to even breaking even. When the grant money dried up, they added a mills tax so now I pay for something through property taxes that not only doesn't offer a service near me but would require I pay to use the service itself too.

[dday9]

I don't think oil should be the future. It's inefficient and obviously too susceptible to the global supply chain.

However, it is stable. Not only in how it combusts but also in transportation.

But it should be used as a short-term means to achieve a longer-term goal.

[dday9]

I don't know what that longer-term goal is, I doubt it's electric and wind is even more dubious, but I'm certain someone smarter than me will figure it out.

[wes4dbt]

You can't have a subway in Louisiana.

You could. I mean they have a rail service from UK to France. Probably not worth the cost in La.

I don't think oil should be the future.

I agree. Besides the environmental problems. It will run out.
It will take probably @ 30yrs to implement the necessary infrastructure for what ever we move to. A shear guess, my point is we need to start working towards it as soon as possible.

I don't know what that longer-term goal is, I doubt it's electric and wind is even more dubious, but I'm certain someone smarter than me will figure it out..

They wont be smarter, just have a different view or expertise.

There has been a lot of progress with batteries, if the improvements continue, electric vehicles become a very viable solution.

I wont be around to see how it turns out but I hope for the generations to come we stop denying the need to move on from oil.

[Zvoni]

There has been a lot of progress with batteries, if the improvements continue, electric vehicles become a very viable solution.

Careful with that.
Current technology requires rare earth minerals, and mining those is as bad for ecology as oil.
You would have to look at the balance at the end of the process.

All said: Agree with that oil is definitely not the future for reasons mentioned

[Zvoni]

That's interesting. I can see why other transportation options are more popular in Europe. We're pretty spoiled in the US, we drive everywhere, especially on the West Coast. Mass transit systems here are not very abundant and not used much. No subways in the Western states.

Here in Germany people are actually very conscious regarding public transport.
e.g. the city i live close by (~12 miles outside it) has some 240K citizens (so not that big compared to US), but Germany (as well as Europe in general) is way more densely populated.
Add the fact, that many german cities have actually closed down their "Downtown"-Center to cars (ask any German how hard it is to find a parking lot close to city-center), people pretty much are used to using public transport.

Within the city you have every 6-10 minutes a tram/bus (depending if it's summer or winter) in the direction you want. Even if you live at the edge of the city it doesn't take you more than 15-20 minutes to reach downtown.
Outside the city with railway every 20-40 minutes (depending on time of day --> they adjust for Rush-Hours) you have a train

And in the end it boils down to math:

In my region there is a union of the local transport providers (local transport of the city itself and german regional railroad), which encompasses some 25 miles radius.
You can buy a "monthly" ticket for 85€ a Month with following "perks":
Use it anywhere within that radius with any of the associated providers as many times you want
You can give your ticket to someone else to use it if you don't need it that day
If for whatever reason a transport gets canceled (e.g. accident, track broken) and you have to use a cab/taxi, you get a refund up to 35€
On Sundays and holidays you can take additionally (!!) 1 adult and up to 4 children (or a dog instead of one child) on that ticket.

Now compare it to daily commuting with your car, when you live some 10 miles away from your working place.

Up until 8 years ago i actually did use that package, and my commute to work took some 25 minutes for 12 miles.
After i got my driving license back in 2017, i commuted with car, and more often than not it took me up to 40 minutes one way (rush-hour traffic etc.), nevermind expense for fuel

[wes4dbt]

Current technology requires rare earth minerals, and mining those is as bad for ecology as oil.

Take a look at what's been happening in the field of sodium ion batteries.

[Zvoni]

Take a look at what's been happening in the field of sodium ion batteries.

Hmm....interesting...didn't know that. it could be a viable alternative.

Let's be honest: The most "traffic" actually IS short-range (say, below 200 miles)
--> going shopping to the mall, going out to dinner, picking up the kids from school, commute to work and similiar

The only remaining question: "What do i do, if, in fact, i do have to go on a long-range trip?" (>200 miles)
Possible Answer: "Hybrid"

[Zvoni]

That's interesting. I can see why other transportation options are more popular in Europe. We're pretty spoiled in the US, we drive everywhere, especially on the West Coast. Mass transit systems here are not very abundant and not used much. No subways in the Western states.

To put a bit more perspective on this topic:
As i said above, the city i live close by, "downtown" is closed off for cars.
This June swedish Heavy Metal Band Sabaton is playing an Open Air concert on a Plaza directly in the center of "Downtown".

My Concert-Ticket (!!!) is valid to use public transportation (see above my post with the "Union") on the day of the gig (and only on the day).
What does this mean in fact?
On the day of the concert i drive to the city, but i leave my car on a "Park & Ride"-parking-lot, which is situated on the outskirts of the city.
Upside 1) There is a Busstop 3 minutes walk from the parking lot, which has every 8 minutes a tram towards downtown. The ride on the tram takes maybe 10-15 minutes.
Upside 2) After the Concert i can still use my ticket to ride back to the Parking lot
Upside 3) From the parking lot it's maybe 5 minutes drive and i'm back on the highway home.

The same for Football-Matches (Soccer). The local team has a 35K-capacity stadium.
If you have a ticket to the match, above applies, but with one additional Upside:
The local public transport provider adds additional trams on the route to the stadium, so 3 hours before and after the match, you have trams each minute (!!).
In a nutshell: of the 35K attending the match maybe 10% actually arrive by car

In Germany, they actually encourage you to leave your car at home.

There are even people privately renting a whole train from german railway to travel some 500-600 miles from Munich to Wacken Open Air (World's biggest and most famous Heavy Metal Festival) and back.
Including pick up/drop off stops along the way (!!).
Same for Sports-Events. The most known in Germany is for Soccer-Matches, where "Away"-Fans travel by privately rented Trains or buses.
I don't know how many times i was on such a bus when going to away-matches, though it was hockey and not soccer

Last year i was on the Iron Maiden Open Air in Stuttgart, Germany, which had an attendance of 50K people
On a specially designated parking lot, there were at least 200 50-Seater-Buses from pretty much all of Germany and closer countries (Switzerland, Austria, France)