Post election prediction

[2kaud]

Well tariffs with Mexico seem to have been paused as Mexico is apparently doing what Trump wants. As has been mentioned, tariffs et al are just a bargaining chip with him to get deals.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Ut’s been run by a bunch of radical lunatics

AMEN!!

Oh wait, you probably don't mean the state.

[sapator]

Utah? :P

Oh Mexico caved? But Trump is getting one lesson after another from those couuuntriees... As Obelix would have said, nia nia nia , nia nia nia.

At least we can all agree that this has been by far the most interesting presidency for a long time.

[TysonLPrice]

Well tariffs with Mexico seem to have been paused as Mexico is apparently doing what Trump wants. As has been mentioned, tariffs et al are just a bargaining chip with him to get deals.

I wonder how long being a bully will work? And then there are long term implications, for example the EU moving away rom the US.

Next stop...Panama.

[dilettante]

Panama has already caved. The EU is a farce, and member nations are talking "exit" one after another - well ahead of Trump forcing them to pay their own way. China might fold before Canada, but I doubt that.

[wes4dbt]

I wonder how long being a bully will work?

That's a good question. So far it's been pretty easy.

I also wonder how long Musk is going to get away with pushing the government around. Musk and his staff having free access to government secure computer servers isn't good.

[sapator]

Yeah, they might break a vase or something.lol
Those lonely secure computer servers are sitting there, crying cuz Trump does not play with them.

[TysonLPrice]

That's a good question. So far it's been pretty easy.

I also wonder how long Musk is going to get away with pushing the government around. Musk and his staff having free access to government secure computer servers isn't good.

You ignored Part II: And then there are long term implications, for example the EU moving away rom the US.

He doesn't think past what the stock market does. That is why he really backed off...and don't forget the "orange headed moron" factor.

[dilettante]

Musk already uncovered the USAID slush fund used to finance NGOs conspiring with foreign invaders.

Trudeau has caved, beating China. I should have realized that the Canadian people still have more voice than China's proletariat.

[dilettante]

Looks like California and Texas are dealing with pro-cartel insurrectionists today.

[wes4dbt]

You ignored Part II: And then there are long term implications, for example the EU moving away rom the US.

I didn't ignore it, I just didn't feel like commenting on it. I don't have any idea what the EU is doing.

[Shaggy Hiker]

It looks to me like Trump is the one who caved, or at least kicked the can down the road. He got nothing at all from either Canada or Mexico. Some vague promises to do what neither country can do. Mexico isn't going to crack down on fentanyl production. The cartels are so deeply enmeshed into their police and political systems that different presidents have taken different, weird, and ineffective approaches. Some try to crack down on the cartels, killings go up and the drugs keep flowing. Others try appeasement (AMLO certainly appeared to), in which case killings change and the drugs keep flowing.

We've been going after the supply side for pot and cocaine for decades with no measurable impact. We aren't even seriously trying for meth, since it may be mostly domestically produced. Now we have fentanyl, or fentanyl precursors. I remember enough organic chemistry to know there are a dozen different pathways to make any chemical like that (a few benzene rings, a ketone, and a couple amine groups, from the looks of it). How many possible precursors are there? Is it like meth where there is one easy path and a dozen more difficult paths?

Going after the supply side has always failed.

It sure looks like Trump got so much pushback from business and the markets that he took some vague promises that won't do anything meaningful, and is going to keep kicking the can down the road.

I'm fine with that.

[wes4dbt]

Going after the supply side has always failed.

Yes it has, completely. It's left us with prisons over populated with low level drug dealers/users. Low level dealers are replaced immediately and high level dealers don't take much longer.

But acting like your going the improve our countries drug problem is political gold.

[dilettante]

[TysonLPrice]

I didn't ignore it, I just didn't feel like commenting on it. I don't have any idea what the EU is doing.

The point was...it is easy to be a bully. The long term implications need to be considered. The EU was an example from the last term, what comes next in the long term, pun intended, is what I was thinking about.

[sapator]

I don't know how much power EU still has over the world but it's not as much as before.
I don't think Trump cares that much.
Also Europe is changing you can turn your head and say la la la but it's changing to be patriotic again. Then Trump can communicate with normal people again and not loons like Marcron ans Schulz .

[Shaggy Hiker]

Patriotic? What were they before?

I think the term you meant is 'nationalistic' in that they are trying to be less global. Of course, that term has led to terrible bloodshed over the past centuries, so it's kind of a bad word, even if the correct one.

[sapator]

No, Patriotic, they where Globalism governments woke boy lunatics.

[FunkyDexter]

It looks to me like Trump is the one who caved

Yeah, this. Mexico doesn't have a border force and already uses its National Guard to police it. What happened to Canada becoming a state? What happened to tariffs replacing Income Tax? Trump got nothing meaningful other than the ability to make this face:-

...while his followers clap like trained seals.

That's the problem when you accept that "Trump guy lies but it's OK because it's a strategy". It's easy to forget that the person he lied to was you. He offered you the world, gave you nothing and still you applaud.

Meanwhile your stock market's been tanking for the last week when he instituted the tariffs and your cost of eggs (which seems like a really weird thing to obsess on but you guys do you, I guess) have been skyrocketing since his tenure started.

So, yeah, he's crushing your country; you, not him, will pay for it; and he somehow found a way of getting you to cheer him on while he does it because... woke... or something.

[jpbro]

Give the man a break, he's almost 80 and he probably forgot he already celebrated these wins last year.

[wes4dbt]

The point was...it is easy to be a bully. The long term implications need to be considered. The EU was an example from the last term, what comes next in the long term, pun intended, is what I was thinking about.

I realized what the point was and I agree. My comment was just,

So far it's been pretty easy.

And it has. Everyone has been quickly bending a knee and kissing the ring. Or at least pretending to, which is what Trump mainly wants.

[wes4dbt]

Meanwhile your stock market's been tanking for the last week when he instituted the tariffs and your cost of eggs (which seems like a really weird thing to obsess on but you guys do you, I guess) have been skyrocketing since his tenure started.

You could pick better examples FD, I'm disappointed. It's easy.

The market is volatile, I'd say nervous but wouldn't say it has tanked. Not yet. It started to when the Tariffs where announced but Trump quickly backed them off and the market claimed down.

The egg prices is because of having to kill large quantities of chickens because of the Bird Flu. At least that's what they're claiming. But it started before Trump took office. I cant blame this on him.

Now, blaming minorities for our problems and purging them, purging government workers and purging government agencies that have oversight on corporations/government is how dictators begin.

Edit:
It seems our egg obsession is no yoke. But we're scrambling to get it under control.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...nia-rcna190667

[dilettante]

Right. Sure. That's why there hasn't been a week of running around with hair on fire in Canada and Mexico and exaggerated pearl-clutching in the media. Oh wait, there WAS.

The tariffs aren't over yet, just paused for a month to see there is follow-through on promised actions.

Deep Staters are resigning and running as fast as possible in the face of audits. Federal bureaucracy "work from homers" have been found to have second jobs they were doing while supposedly working. There is now pressure for State governments to do the same investigations of their own. These featherbedders should be shaking in their Guccis.

Don't get me started on this Ken Martin clown, another rich white race hustler backed by bushels of dark money. Even James Carville is disgusted that what he calls "the wokest wing" seems to be bent on losing in 2026 and 2028.

[sapator]

I mean. Listen we went out last week 500.000 people and more in all the major cities to protest on our government gangsters, no parties just people unite and the government is trembling. It was made easier when social media (yes I don't but I was told what will go on) is free to arrange that kind of meetings and the sold out media in the fear of the whole thing getting out, went dog on the government. Thank you Trump thank you Musk.
So now I see people here britsing about it. So what are you doing exactly? I mean I get the foreigners they can't do more than look like cheated housewives, oh but she's got the cheaper shoes.
What are people that are actually annoyed by Trump there are doing? Keyboard war? Did you even got out to physically vote or where you too lazy for that also? You either suck it up or do something but I don't see anything going on there. Apparently people are glad that he came out (?) . But, look at the bright side....Yep. So, Yoga, breathing, good food and friends and suck it up for 4 years.
Also let me know when your income starts falling , tariffs barrifs clarifs , do you actually start losing income? That wold be a key factor.

P.S. Suck it up is not an insult here, at least I don't think is there also. If it is I apologize. Deal with it? Is better?

[wes4dbt]

I mean. Listen we went out last week 500.000 people and more in all the major cities to protest on our government gangsters, no parties just people unite and the government is trembling. It was made easier when social media (yes I don't but I was told what will go on) is free to arrange that kind of meetings and the sold out media in the fear of the whole thing getting out, went dog on the government. Thank you Trump thank you Musk.
So now I see people here britsing about it. So what are you doing exactly? I mean I get the foreigners they can't do more than look like cheated housewives, oh but she's got the cheaper shoes.
What are people that are actually annoyed by Trump there are doing? Keyboard war? Did you even got out to physically vote or where you too lazy for that also? You either suck it up or do something but I don't see anything going on there. Apparently people are glad that he came out (?) . But, look at the bright side....Yep. So, Yoga, breathing, good food and friends and suck it up for 4 years.
Also let me know when your income starts falling , tariffs barrifs clarifs , do you actually start losing income? That wold be a key factor.

P.S. Suck it up is not an insult here, at least I don't think is there also. If it is I apologize. Deal with it? Is better?

What a hypocritical statement.

In one sentence you praise people in your country from protesting and in the next you tell us to stop protesting and "suck it up". Then you question if we even bothered to go out and vote.

As for doing something, that is happening. Considering Trump has only been in office for a couple of weeks, there have been multiple law suits filed against Trumps actions and multiple protests. No mob has stormed congress yet like the Jan 6th riot. To you, apparently that means "people are glad he came out". Some people are, some are not.

As for the financial impact of Trumps actions, no one knows yet. Well, except for the people that have lost their jobs. Instead how about you letting us know when our income is going to start raising.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I mean. Listen we went out last week 500.000 people and more in all the major cities to protest on our government gangsters, no parties just people unite and the government is trembling.

You get 500K and it's a big deal. The US can get 500K to show up for a monster truck rally. For China or India, 500K is just Friday. It's a matter of scale.

Politics aside, fentanyl is a real issue. That's killing a LOT of people in the US. It's just frustrating that everybody tries the same things that has been failing for decades. This is so tired that it was the butt of jokes decades ago. By now, it's not even worth joking about. Going after the supply side has never done anything useful in this arena. Anybody who wants drugs can get drugs, of pretty nearly any kinds, and probably for about the same price....though that would be an interesting factor to track.

In fact, we DO track the price of some drugs, and the impact that has on consumption. We track it for tobacco products, and some vectors for caffeine, a pair of legal drugs. From that, we have a fair idea of what kind of price increase would be required to drive what kind of reduction in use. I have a feeling that we have never gotten close to the necessary price increases when it comes to illegal drugs, despite spending billions in interdiction and suppression at the source. Why does anybody think that Mexico, Canada, or anybody else, could do better?

Trump spooked. Whether it was because of hair on fire media stories or just because every single economist said it would be really bad, it doesn't matter. The ask was never going to solve the problem it was meant to address. I'd like to see Trump solve that problem, but if that's his idea of a solution....guess we'll see what the next person comes up with, since the problem will still be there.

[dilettante]

Well I doubt the answer is more US taxpayer funded DEI musicals in Ireland.

Something needs to happen before a hot war on Canadian and Mexican drug cartels erupts. I worry this will expand as the ties to their politicians are exposed in hope of clemency on the part of mob leadership.

There is far too much egregious criminality across both borders and it has deep tentacles reaching back to US domestic politicians as well. Not just in narcotics but also Canada's petroleum industry.

[wes4dbt]

Listen we went out last week 500.000 people and more in all the major cities to protest on our government gangsters, no parties just people unite and the government is trembling. It was made easier when social media (yes I don't but I was told what will go on) is free to arrange that kind of meetings and the sold out media in the fear of the whole thing getting out, went dog on the government. Thank you Trump thank you Musk.

https://apnews.com/article/train-cra...168000d87f27fd

Is this the protest your talking about? It's the only significant one recently I could fine.

I don't know why your thanking Trump and Musk.

The protesters, called to demonstrate by victims’ relatives

[jpbro]

Right. Sure. That's why there hasn't been a week of running around with hair on fire in Canada and Mexico and exaggerated pearl-clutching in the media. Oh wait, there WAS.

I don't watch much news, esp. not mainstream/cable stuff so I can't comment on how much pearl clutching there was or not, but I do know that Trump said there's nothing that Canada could do to avert the tariffs, so the only real choice was tariffs back at ya. Not sure why anyone would have expected any different, unless their brains are mushy peas.

T: I'm going to slap tariffs on everything unless you do something about the border.

C: Okay, here's what we're going to do about the border:



T: Yeah, well I'm still going to slap tariffs on everything and there's nothing you can do to change my mind.

C: Okay, we didn't want it to get to this point, but we're going to have to slap tariffs on everything too then.

How this could surprise anyone is beyond me, but I've noticed a distinct lack of critical thinking and an increasing amount of emotionally driven posts, so I suspect some around here aren't thinking too clearly.

The tariffs aren't over yet, just paused for a month to see there is follow-through on promised actions.

True, I forgot to mention that Trump did get one new thing out of this, a Canadian Fentanyl Czar! Hope that was worth it. I also hope it's an open position so I can apply. Think it will come with a nice hat?

Deep Staters are resigning and running as fast as possible in the face of audits. Federal bureaucracy "work from homers" have been found to have second jobs they were doing while supposedly working. There is now pressure for State governments to do the same investigations of their own. These featherbedders should be shaking in their Guccis. Don't get me started on this Ken Martin clown, another rich white race hustler backed by bushels of dark money. Even James Carville is disgusted that what he calls "the wokest wing" seems to be bent on losing in 2026 and 2028.

Shh bby is ok.

[sapator]

https://apnews.com/article/train-cra...168000d87f27fd

Is this the protest your talking about? It's the only significant one recently I could fine.

I don't know why your thanking Trump and Musk.

What is your point?

[sapator]

You get 500K and it's a big deal. The US can get 500K to show up for a monster truck rally. For China or India, 500K is just Friday. It's a matter of scale.

P

Ehh we are 10 mil in Greece and the biggest protest we usually get is a couple of thousand. You are actually comparing US size to Greece size. Or this is one of the infamous Shaggy jokes?

Good thing tho you answer all of my questions in the previous post (not you, you actually get out , hike and protest to the squirrels)

[wes4dbt]

What is your point?

I'll try to make it easier for you to understand.

Listen we went out last week 500.000 people and more in all the major cities to protest on our government gangsters, no parties just people unite and the government is trembling. It was made easier when social media (yes I don't but I was told what will go on) is free to arrange that kind of meetings and the sold out media in the fear of the whole thing getting out, went dog on the government. Thank you Trump thank you Musk.

Why are you thanking Trump and Musk for this protest??? They don't seem to have had anything to do with arranging or encouraging this protest.

[sapator]

Whatever the relatives tried to put out the previous years was marked by the checkers and deleted. Especially the "rumors" about the crash.
As with the big protests for the first memorandums that ruined us as a country the march was first arranged on free of checkers social media. X and non checkers other social media was because of Trump and Musk.
The sold out big TV networks did not say a word so how did all those people came together?

[wes4dbt]

The sold out big TV networks did not say a word so how did all those people came together?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...mber-of-users/

There are much larger social media platforms than X. X is not even in the top ten. Truth social isn't even listed.

But go ahead and give them credit. I can live with that.

[sapator]

The checkers where mostly for Facebook and Instagram YouTube and then it was Twitter, that was what people on Greece where using, that I believe was as big as those mentioned the others maybe in US (we chat? First itme ever heard and some more). So I really don't see what's your point. Are you protesting that I also mentioned X?
Anyhow stucking with why I thanked them rather than what is going on here probably won't give much to go on about so ,yeah. Gotta sleep we are migrating servers tomorrow,so I have ... Gosh! 6 hours of sleep! I'm off! I'll make sure to thank Bill for not letting us keep the migrations on the same versions, to get even.

[wes4dbt]

So I really don't see what's your point. Are you protesting that I also mentioned X?

I haven't been protesting anything. I was asking a straight forward question. Which you can't seem to understand. You can thank Trump and Musk for that too.

[dilettante]

Things are so bad that even the far left is going after corporate leftism:

[TysonLPrice]

You get 500K and it's a big deal. The US can get 500K to show up for a monster truck rally. For China or India, 500K is just Friday. It's a matter of scale.

Politics aside, fentanyl is a real issue. That's killing a LOT of people in the US. It's just frustrating that everybody tries the same things that has been failing for decades. This is so tired that it was the butt of jokes decades ago. By now, it's not even worth joking about. Going after the supply side has never done anything useful in this arena. Anybody who wants drugs can get drugs, of pretty nearly any kinds, and probably for about the same price....though that would be an interesting factor to track.

In fact, we DO track the price of some drugs, and the impact that has on consumption. We track it for tobacco products, and some vectors for caffeine, a pair of legal drugs. From that, we have a fair idea of what kind of price increase would be required to drive what kind of reduction in use. I have a feeling that we have never gotten close to the necessary price increases when it comes to illegal drugs, despite spending billions in interdiction and suppression at the source. Why does anybody think that Mexico, Canada, or anybody else, could do better?

Trump spooked. Whether it was because of hair on fire media stories or just because every single economist said it would be really bad, it doesn't matter. The ask was never going to solve the problem it was meant to address. I'd like to see Trump solve that problem, but if that's his idea of a solution....guess we'll see what the next person comes up with, since the problem will still be there.

It seems fentanyl is a problem of our own doing. Congress passed laws that created an opioid crisis in the country and made the pharmacies richer. Then they turned off the spigot creating another crisis. Fentanyl filled the gap. Pretty simple math...

[FunkyDexter]

wouldn't say it has tanked.

I didn't say had tanked. I said has been tanking. I.e. "is still in the process of tanking"

The egg prices

Prices coming down on day 1, remember. That was the promise. He doesn't get to back track it to "some prices... you know, the easy ones". To be honest, though, I wanted to show the Consumer Price Index which, all the signs indicate, will show exactly the same story. But, unfortunately, it's not published until later this month. Also, I figured eggs would provide a jumping off point for bad puns.

Well I doubt the answer is more US taxpayer funded DEI musicals in Ireland.

What on earth are you talking about?

[Shaggy Hiker]

Ehh we are 10 mil in Greece and the biggest protest we usually get is a couple of thousand. You are actually comparing US size to Greece size. Or this is one of the infamous Shaggy jokes?

Good thing tho you answer all of my questions in the previous post (not you, you actually get out , hike and protest to the squirrels)

The squirrels are agitated enough already. We have some mighty activist squirrels in this valley. I assume it's because we have an excellent greenbelt walkway along the river, and lots of the people who use it bring things for the squirrels. If you even look at them wrong, they'll be all over you.

However, you are right, I was comparing population sizes. A huge protest is a huge protest, but the number of people that count as a huge protest is different in different places. I think of places like LA as big, but there are cities out there where turning out 500K means fewer people than would normally be on the streets.