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  1. Oct 19th, 2024, 04:52 AM #10
    TysonLPrice
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Can you turn this into a polls?
    1. Harris Wins Popular Vote and Electoral College
    2. Trump Wins Popular Vote and Electoral College
    3. Harris Wins Popular Vote and Trump Wins Electoral College
    4. Trump Wins Popular Vote and Harris Wins Electoral College


    If you can't, my vote is #3.

    Harris is ahead nationally in the polls by <2% and Trump is ahead <1% in all but one of the swing states. Consider that historically Trump overperforms in the polls comes election day, that is why I'm confident that he wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

    The betting markets more or less agree with betting odds of Trump at 58% and Harris at 40%.
    That would be in keeping with recent history as far as republicans and the popular vote goes. The last Republican president who also won the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004. Also, Trump never won the popular vote.
    Last edited by dday9; May 27th, 2026 at 11:14 AM.
    Please remember next time...elections matter!
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