Post Race!

[dday9]

@shaggy - I am not sure of where you are at, geographically speaking, in the state, but what do you think of the eastern side of Oregon being apart of Idaho?

[wes4dbt]

Man, the Liz Truss sure didn't last long. That poor lady sort of had that, deer in the headlights look. With the current inflation and energy problems it's a tough time to be a leader. Everyone wants a solution NOW. It's still safe to be in politics as long as your lower on the ladder. You can always find a way to blame the "other guy". But if your at the top it's sort of do or die on a daily basis.

I have a hard enough time dealing with the stress of deciding what to have for dinner. lol

[Shaggy Hiker]

@shaggy - I am not sure of where you are at, geographically speaking, in the state, but what do you think of the eastern side of Oregon being apart of Idaho?

The border between OR and ID is a bit on the bizarre side. Part of the border is the Snake River, and Hells Canyon, which makes an obvious border. There aren't any bridges across that canyon, so it's a border no matter how you look at it. However, the Snake River is the border a ways south of where the canyon begins, then the border turns into a straight line. The more obvious border would have been to take the line along the Owyhee River, which goes through a canyon all its own. Because of how the border was drawn, there is a part of OR that is difficult for people from OR to get to, but easy for people from ID to get to. VERY few people live in that area, largely because of a distinct lack of water.

The other oddity is that the time zone doesn't run along the OR/ID border, but through some seemingly arbitrary line west of the border, which means that Ontario, OR, is in the mountain time zone, while the rest of OR is in Pacific time zone. That has never made any sense.

Still, there is a push by some in OR to leave OR and join with ID. That isn't about making a rational border, that's about politics, and it is mostly about doing to others what you don't want done to you. Eastern OR is predominantly red, but the state is blue. The eastern OR Republicans want to join with solid red Idaho, because they don't like being in a liberal state.

The problem with that is simply that if eastern OR was just a bit more conservative, the state would be red. There are lots of conservatives in Portland. They get outnumbered by Democrats, but not by such a large number that eastern OR wouldn't outnumber the Democrats...if a significant majority of those in eastern OR were actually conservative, but they aren't. Basically, the west is a bluer shade of purple, while the east is a redder shade of purple, and the 51% in the east want to pretend that the 49% don't exist.

So, those wanting to join ID are a minority because of how the borders are drawn, and they just want to draw different borders so that they can be a majority. They want to be able to do to the minority what they object to when done to them.

It would take an act of Congress, though, and that won't happen, so it's just a bunch of whining.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Man, the Liz Truss sure didn't last long. That poor lady sort of had that, deer in the headlights look. With the current inflation and energy problems it's a tough time to be a leader. Everyone wants a solution NOW. It's still safe to be in politics as long as your lower on the ladder. You can always find a way to blame the "other guy". But if your at the top it's sort of do or die on a daily basis.

I have a hard enough time dealing with the stress of deciding what to have for dinner. lol

To be fair, her solution caused a rout in the British economy. She backed off on the more extreme parts of that, which caused a rift in her supporters cause they supported her original position. At that point, who was she? She got elected on a platform that caused the market to recoil. When she stepped back, she no longer had a platform, so what was left?

[Shaggy Hiker]

Basically, she was all about an idea. When the idea was rejected, there was nothing left. I don't think she was a, "say anything to stay in power" person, she had an agenda. Once that was rejected, then so was she.

[dday9]

...
So, those wanting to join ID are a minority because of how the borders are drawn, and they just want to draw different borders so that they can be a majority. They want to be able to do to the minority what they object to when done to them.

It would take an act of Congress, though, and that won't happen, so it's just a bunch of whining.

I had seen several polls where something like 60% in all but two of the eastern counties want to switch. Also, I know that there is precedent in congress approving state border changes, but I tend to agree with you in that I doubt it could happen today.

[dilettante]

It's broader than politics. Culture might be a more accurate differentiator.

[wes4dbt]

Basically, she was all about an idea. When the idea was rejected, there was nothing left. I don't think she was a, "say anything to stay in power" person, she had an agenda. Once that was rejected, then so was she.

I'd have to say I like her willingness to walk away so quickly and let someone else have a shot at working the problem. There probably wasn't a way to survive anyway but it's pretty rare to see someone except that fact so quickly.

I wonder what the record is for the shortest time in office for the PM of the UK. Excluding death. Never paid any attention to UK politics until I retired. Maybe this is just normal.

[Shaggy Hiker]

It's broader than politics. Culture might be a more accurate differentiator.

That could be. Idaho is seen as a rural, agricultural area with little rainfall. That could describe much of OR, as well. However, I have never heard the argument framed in those terms. It has always been objecting to the liberal Portland area. The same thing could likely be said for Boise, and just a few other enclaves within Idaho. There is a pretty real urban/rural divide, especially in the west.

Growing up in NH, the state was considered pretty rural, but it might be more accurate to call most of it suburban. There seems to be a much bigger difference out here, than what I remember from growing up. In Idaho, that is partly due to the funding model. We recently came in last on the list of lowest state support for school funding. NH was always near the bottom of that list while I was growing up, too, but in NH, lots of towns were fairly wealthy, so school funding wasn't horrible...it was just local, and paid for by high property taxes. In Idaho, the divide between the tax bases in places like Boise and places like Stites, is pretty extreme, and that seems to be reflected in the schools.

I have never seen data for eastern OR, but eastern WA is a similar situation. The rural, eastern, counties receive a net inflow of cash from Seattle. I would expect that the same is true in OR. It might even be true in Idaho, but there also might not be all that much cash flow in any direction in this state.

[dclamp]

It's broader than politics. Culture might be a more accurate differentiator.

We should just outlaw politics

[wes4dbt]

We should just outlaw politics

And then what??? Thunderdome.

[FunkyDexter]

Man, the Liz Truss sure didn't last long. That poor lady sort of had that, deer in the headlights look. With the current inflation and energy problems it's a tough time to be a leader. Everyone wants a solution NOW. It's still safe to be in politics as long as your lower on the ladder. You can always find a way to blame the "other guy". But if your at the top it's sort of do or die on a daily basis.

I think you're being overly generous. You're dead right that she took the reigns at a uniquely difficult time but the mini budget was entirely her own choice and it was that that killed her. Demonstration: Jeremy Hunt reversed it and the economy was back on (an admittedly slow) track within two days.

I do think we've got a problem brewing in that we still haven't really addressed the economic fall out of Brexit. Covid and Ukraine have provided a smoke screen for the cost of Brexit but watching the other European economies recover while ours stagflates makes it increasingly difficult to deny. I think Truss's mini-budget was partly driven by an attempt to turn the UK into one massive tax haven which was one of the selling points promised by the Leave campaign. However, that ignores that pure tax take may be able to support a relatively small economy like Jersy or the Dominican Republic but it can't sustain an economy the size of the UK. That requires industry and/or a service sector.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Are you going to get Boris back?

[Shaggy Hiker]

We're going to see something rare, today: Rain. It will be the first rain we've had in...longer than Liz Truss was PM.

[dday9]

So apparently this Russian guy who was streaming on Twitch was just banned.

He setup a 24/7 livestream of his gas stove burner turned on. There was a message that said "From Russia With Love" and "1.44 EUR\Month" I guess to indicate how much running the burner constantly would cost him.

I don't care where you are at in terms of the current Russian/Ukraine situation, but that is hilarious! Trolling can be one of the funnier things on the internet.

[dday9]

This was from a Vice article:

russiangas1 is an obvious troll, but it’s an effective one. It’s avatar is an orc—a common pejorative Ukrainians use for Russians—and a message in Russian at the top asks everyone to be nice to each other. In the bottom left hand corner is a photo of a laughing man next to a rubber duckie wearing aviators, a gold chain, and a helmet with a propeller on it.

[FunkyDexter]

Are you going to get Boris back?

It's possible and polls show he has more support among the party membership than anyone else but I personally think this would be a stupid move for the Tories. The attack line would be "the most qualified person you have to lead the party is a convicted criminal". (calling him a criminal is a bit harsh for the whole partygate thing but that would be the attack line).

I don't want to head down the US politics line but imagine if Trump was actually successfully impeached and then the Reps renominated him. It'd be an open goal.

Edit>I should add some nuance to that, imagine he was impeached and the public at large agreed with it)

[wes4dbt]

To be fair, her solution caused a rout in the British economy.

I think you're being overly generous.

I wasn't trying to defend or make excuses for her in any way. She failed spectacularly. I did feel a little sorry for her.

My interest was in how fast she was gone. Not a long drawn out process of denial and excuses.

I don't want to head down the US politics line but imagine if Trump was actually successfully impeached and then the Reps renominated him. It'd be an open goal.

Edit>I should add some nuance to that, imagine he was impeached and the public at large agreed with it)

If there was an election today, my guess is he would win. He still might in two years. The Republicans are afraid of him and the Democrats don't seem to have anyone new or interesting. Biden may run again. Isn't that sad.
If inflation continues my guess is the Republican could run Hilary and win.

[wes4dbt]

This answers my question.

That tenure, which likely will fall short of 60 days, would give her a claim to being Britain's shortest-serving prime minister. George Canning, who is usually thought to hold the record, served for 119 days in 1827 until his death from tuberculosis

A new record.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Yeah, and he cheated. He didn't even get to resign. Her departure is voluntary...more or less.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Don't read this post.

[dday9]

Don't read this post.

Crap, I lost.

[Shaggy Hiker]

You fell for my clever plot!

[FunkyDexter]

Well, with the rules the 1922 committee have laid out it's starting to look like Boris probably will be back in (assuming he runs but I don't think there's much doubt about that. He needs to get a little under a third of the MPs to back him, which shouldn't be difficult - he's probably got it already, and them he'll go forward to the membership, most likely against Rishi Sunak. The membership adore Boris and hate Sunak so...

Oh well, only two years until a general election.

[FunkyDexter]

If there was an election today, my guess is he would win

I'd put odds on he'd win the nomination. The election, I'm less sure. I think the Dems have some strong candidates but they tend to be from the more radical wing and I'm not sure the US electorate is ready for that. The Dems need to find a strong centrist.

[wes4dbt]

I'd put odds on he'd win the nomination. The election, I'm less sure. I think the Dems have some strong candidates but they tend to be from the more radical wing and I'm not sure the US electorate is ready for that. The Dems need to find a strong centrist.

The Dem's need to find some unity. The Rep's seem much better at that.

Not that I find sticking together whether right or wrong a good thing but it does help win elections.

As for Trump winning, I think any republican would win right now. You would think the whole election fraud lies, Jan. 6th, business fraud, stolen documents would sour people on Trump but his core is still strong and willing to ignore these things. Then the economy problems are probably enough to make large numbers vote against then Dem's.

Personally, I don't think the economy has anything to do with Rep or Dem. Plus I still remember the wreck that Bush left the economy in. I keep say economy but the issue is inflation. The jobs market is actually very good.

But I'm really just guessing and not well informed guessing at that. But I'm sure of one thing, Biden out lasted Truss so USA, USA!!!! lol

[dilettante]

Actually employment levels are deemed "too good" right now.

Seems like an impossible thing, but the suggestion is that so many marginal workers are employed that productivity is severely eroded and managing them has high costs. This slows production and delivery of goods and services.

We're also under policies that discourage petroleum production and refining and encourages shipping domestic supplies overseas. For good or for ill, it plays into scarcities and increased prices.

Trying to pretend this is merely the hand of Fate seems pretty naïve.

[dday9]

LSU is playing ole miss.

[Shaggy Hiker]

If there was a lever that a politician could pull that would make the economy great, they'd pull it as soon as they got their hands on it, and keep pulling it till it broke off.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Don't think about that too much.

[Shaggy Hiker]

It'll make you go blind.

[Bonker Gudd]

We someone to run this country who knows how to tie up their shoelaces.

Bonker 4 PM.

[wes4dbt]

Trying to pretend this is merely the hand of Fate seems pretty naïve.

It may not be Fate. But I see nothing from history that indicates either the Rep's or Dem's no how to control the economy. I'd say it's more of the shotgun approach. Just keep firing until something good happens.

[dday9]

LSU beat Ole Miss

[wes4dbt]

LSU beat Ole Miss

Good for LSU. I was wondering how good the 7-0 Ole Mis was.

[Shaggy Hiker]

It's not just random, but it IS chaotic. We poured a huge amount of money into the economy as a result of COVID. For some people, that makes no difference. I bought bonds with the stimulus checks because it was ironic. That didn't do anything one way or another. However, there are lots of people who have a need for the money, and buy stuff with it. With the supply chain fouled up, an increase in purchasing just meant that the economy was overheating.

Of course, economists have been predicting inflation rising for the last decade, or more, and it kept on not happening. The assumption was that at full employment, which we were at, employers would increase wages to compete for employees, and that would cause inflation. It didn't happen then. Was this a lagging economic effect, a result of an overheating economy, a result of supply chain disruption, all of the above...mixed with the largest oil exporter starting a war? Yeah, probably all of those...plus, I ate a cheeseburger back in 1986. It was good.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I hadn't heard about the lettuce. That was awesome.

[wes4dbt]

So the economy is where the term "butterfly effect" comes from. lol

The people that predict things like inflation or the market rise/fall just have to be persistent, eventual you'll be right.

I predict the market will go back up and inflation will comeback down. I like my odds.

[Shaggy Hiker]

That's not where the term came from, but it certainly applies quite well. Even people who know about chaotic systems tend to overlook the significance of that. Inflation might not be happening, or might be more, or might be less, had I not eaten that cheeseburger. The long term impacts of VERY trivial changes is equal in magnitude to every other change, so long as the strange attractor doesn't move, and it probably hasn't. That just means that the economy is still oscillating around the same general point.

The difference between a trivial change and a non-trivial change appears to be in how long it takes for the effect to manifest, not in the magnitude of the effect.

[FunkyDexter]

BoJo has dropped out. I did not see that coming.

So it'll be interesting to see what happens now. I don't think Penny Mordaunt will get the 100 nominations she needs to go forward to the membership but it's close. If she does she'll likely win because alot of the membership hate Sunak. Should be interesting to see.