Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

[sapator]

Let's get back to covid for a moment.
Most of the EU countries that are starting lockdowns are over 70% vaccinated.
Why? What's going on with the Euro sheep (it's intended like ship but since we lambed the thread..)?
I mean we will possibly go for a lockdown in less than a month here.Both vax and non vax.
So how do you call a uninformed person that does not eat meat? A Beeegetarian.

[FunkyDexter]

If you really want to see how misrepresentative OAN is being, listen to the "newly uncovered" (for which read "published openly on YouTube 2 years ago") Milken Institute discussion at the following timestamps:-
41:13
41:55
They are arguing the exact opposite of the OAN portrayal.

Most of the EU countries that are starting lockdowns are over 70% vaccinated.

are any EU actually going into lockdown? I've seen a few bringing in travel bans but no lockdowns. This situation is changing fast, though, so I may have just missed it.

[sapator]

I did not mean that they are in a lockdown,my bad, I meant they are starting to prepare, take measures as they did the previous years. The lockdown is highly possible for Greece but Greece is the "experiment" of EU.
Belgium,Austria,Germany,Portugal,Cyprus and of course our idiots are doing so and they have high vax rates.

[dilettante]

As globalism winds down, COVID is only accelerating it. This puts the CCP into collapse:




It also doesn't bode well for the coastal urban globalists in the US who scream about "democracy" when what they are really after is CCP-style autocracy and its self-colonialism bent on sucking the life out of "the hinterlands" they can't relate to in their childish notions of how an economy works. They are already beginning to find that bread and milk doesn't just magically grow on store shelves as they imagined:




Bidenism was always a dead-end. It's was over before it began, and Biden's actual policies demonstrate that even he knows this and probably always did.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Sorry, I guess I'm no Jonathan Swift, but it was an attempt at satire.

So...you're saying you're none too swift?

I'm not sure that pun is totally cross-cultural.

[jpbro]

Hey now, I resemble that remark!

[Shaggy Hiker]

Why? What's going on with the Euro sheep (it's intended like ship but since we lambed the thread..)?

Sheep vs ship? Are you talking about a shear hulk?

[sapator]

Possibly...Who's asking?
No I have no idea of that remark of a crane, I was referring to the similar sounding of the words but I can go with sip also if you prefer.
Sheep Ship sip - Sheep ship sip- Sheep Ship sip,Sheep Ship sip Sheep, Si sisi si si siiiiiiiip (field music)!

[FunkyDexter]

I meant they are starting to prepare

Oh yeah, that's definitely happening. I'm pretty sure we're going into one either just after Christmas or just after the New Year.

Trouble is, by the time we really know whether Omicron is lethal enough to merit a lockdown, it'll be too late to have a short one and we'll have to do a long one as we have previously. The logical conclusion from that is that we should do a short "circuit breaker" lockdown now. But if it then turns out to be very mild, as early stats suggest, we've done a load of economic damage for nothing. The lag and asymptomatic spread are a nightmare because they mean every decision has to be either uninformed or late.

[TysonLPrice]

So...you're saying you're none too swift?

I'm not sure that pun is totally cross-cultural.

It is if you are fast on the uptake...

[sapator]

And so it begins.
Tomorrow Greece goes on masks everywhere for everyone and double or the white masks for public transport and markets.
In the new year more measures to come with time restrictions, local lockdowns and SMS to go somewhere.
Suddenly the vaxbies feel like they have been duped.I get complains and whining from my circle, they get a, "you voted for them".

Tomorrow,Tomorrow , I'll mask you, Tomorrow.

[wes4dbt]

The lag and asymptomatic spread are a nightmare because they mean every decision has to be either uninformed or late.

I agree. And it makes it easy for the whiners and complainers to use this fact to continue their endless droning of how inconvenient these efforts to save lives are.

[Eduardo-]

[Schmidt]

Yup.

I also think, that there's a very high probability, that the "severe-illness-risk" of the Omicron-variant is "back down at normal flu-level".

One can quite clearly observe that in the following Chart -
(which shows a *significant* drop in the mortality-rate in the last month, where Omicron replaced the D-variant nearly in its entirety across SouthAfrica):
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...e&country=~ZAF

Now, let's sit down and watch - how the corporate-media will "spin this story to you".

Olaf

[Eduardo-]

The image is clear, it seems that Omicron prevents deaths from Delta:

[baka]

right now, at time moment, here, they really try to push vaccine on you, telling omicron is fatal and all that.
it seems like they are in a hurry, as this time around they are acting "very fast", like they know omicron is weak but want to "sell" it to people to get the vaccine (Im sure they have deals that x=vaccination equal to money in your pocket, corruption at the highest level)
and right now, they letting doctors go, if they would "dare" to say to parents: "I think you don't need to give your child the vaccine"* we are in a dictatorship.
the only difference is, in China you disappear, they put you in a cell and throw away they key, but here, they isolate you, and even dismiss you, and eventually you find yourself without job and opportunities. its a mental prison that will eat your mind bit by bit.

nowhere they try to communicate in a "honest and real" way, if people ask: it seems omicron is not that strong, the response is: it will help you if you take the boost vaccine, giving you better protection against mortality and that you will not spread around a dangerous sickness that could kill off your family and friends.
right now they will spend another $25M that will be used to "make people understand how important it is to take the vaccine". they don't care that "maybe" people don't want it because they have a brain, or because they feel, I want to deal with the virus myself, if I die, its my destiny. or because they don't trust the government anymore. if you keep lying over and over, and if theres corruption all the time, you need to be very stupid to believe in them now.

* it was yesterday news that a doctor was off his job and waiting for inquiry. just because he suggested that theres no need to give the vaccine to a healthy child.

[Schmidt]

The image is clear, it seems that Omicron prevents deaths from Delta:

Thought so, too...

What's even more funny (reading your sentence,
assuming that this will become the "established truth" everyone will have to admit to in the end).

At the time Omicron came up, I've read quite a few lines in the news like:
- "extremely dangerous, because of the sheer amount of new mutations, compared to D"
- "such an extreme amount can only happen, when bred in unvaccinated people"

Well, if the latter statement was indeed the case...
(come on, I mean it has to be, since it came over an official channel, verified by "true scientists"),
then a little "thank you" in the direction of the unvaccinated, who "made all this possible",
seems to be in order - wouldn't you agree?

Olaf

[Eduardo-]

wouldn't you agree?

100%!!

[FunkyDexter]

how the corporate-media will "spin this story to you"

They're spinning it exactly as it is: highly infectious but early indications (which are becoming increasingly reliable) are that the effects are much less serious that previous variants. You're back to looking for arguments to rail against that aren't being made.

it seems that Omicron prevents deaths from Delta

Not really although displacement is likely to be an explanation for that drop. There's currently conflicting data, some of which (particularly SA data) appears to show that Omichron displaces Delta and some of which (e.g. the UK) appears to show that it stacks on top. It could be that escalating vaccination rates have driven that drop, or it could be that changing behaviour as people have begun staying at home, not mixing etc is driving it, we don't really know. It's certainly possible, indeed likely, that Omichron is displacing previous variants and we could well be looking at Covid finally becoming endemic, which would be great. We don't really have enough data to draw that conclusion yet though.

"extremely dangerous, because of the sheer amount of new mutations, compared to D"

Extremely infectious, which is a very different premise.

a little "thank you"

When you're ready to accept the blame for previous lethal spreads, maybe we'll consider it.

[Eduardo-]

The mass media is clearly frightening people, bust mostly without lying.
That what they have been doing from the start of the pandemic.

They say things like:
"The WTO declared it a variant of concern."
Not a lie of course, but for uneducated people (the 99%) that means dangerous.

"Omicron has 26 mutations in the spike protein".
Yes, true, but they don't say that those mutations, it seems, rendered it less dangerous.

"It can escape vaccines immunization".
Yes, true. At this time IDK whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but it will naturally immunize also to "already" vaccinated.
But what's the effect on the audience? Fear.

"It is extremely infectious."
True. But if you tell them at the same time (or imply, that is the same) that it is so dangerous, people gets frightened.

It is clear what they are doing, that is the same that they have been doing all the time: telling some things and hiding others.
The WHO, FDA, etc, where reporters take the "information" from are the main responsible.

Telling part of the story, and implying things that are not true, to uneducated people, is plain Lying.

It is a whole chain of dishonesty.

[Eduardo-]

we could well be looking at Covid finally becoming endemic

The logic doesn't say so.
The logic is that Omicron will replace all other variants completely, and since it has a so fast speed of spread, after it finds no one to infect, the covid will faint and disappear.
And I hope so. We'll see soon if that happens or not, in a couple of months or so.
I'm a bit worried about far regions, isolated people that can have other variants already and not getting Omicron. Because immunity is likely not to last forever, so we don't want to have the original virus somewhere waiting to come back when the immunity is lower.

One good thing that the scientific community could do, is to store this Omicron variant, that is the remedy that they weren't able to make but that nature did.
Just in case the original virus come back, they could free Omicron again.

[sapator]

As I've said first a couple of months ago, endemic endemic endemic.
Covid will not disappear as all the other flu, covid 1 , flukous3 the return did not disappear (as it's "one of us, one of us", as we knew from day one, no matter what fear where spreading), it will just be endemic.
The good think is vaxbies will stop vaxb, except from higher ages and with medical issues that must vaxb every year as they did before I suppose? So let's shut up and go celebrate xmas

[FunkyDexter]

@Eduardo, I think you don't know what endemic means. It means that covid would continue to exist in the population but would be non-lethal. The common cold and most flus, for example, are endemic. It's what we want to happen.

Most of the EU countries that are starting lockdowns are over 70% vaccinated.

It won't disappear. No virus in history ever has without the aid of vaccines. The hope is that it becomes endemic.

[sapator]

I believe that was not for me but for Eduardo.
Have a good on Funky merry Xmas, going for a feast .....

[FunkyDexter]

Yeah, sorry, our posts crossed and it now looks like I was responding to you. I'll edit to make it clearer.

Happy Chrimbo.

[baka]

the governments want to keep up with the pandemic. its an opportunity they don't want to lose.
just look here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._hospital_beds

this is what they try to avoid.
telling "we failed the healthcare", or "its impossible to sustain", or "its our fault, our priority was to make the rich richer and we need to cut something" its not something they want to admit, instead:

its the virus that did this, and of course all the evil non-vaccinated people, they create the problems we have in our hospitals.
meanwhile, many healthworkes tells about the condition they where "before" the pandemic, and thats the real problem.

but politicians will never admit to that, they love to blame others.

[wes4dbt]

They say things like:
"The WTO declared it a variant of concern."
Not a lie of course, but for uneducated people (the 99%) that means dangerous.

You really think saying "a variant of concern" is frightening. Of coarse we should be concerned about any new variant until we know it's characteristics. That's not frightening.

99% are uneducated? You seem to have a very low opinion of peoples intelligence and a very high opinion of yours. Plus all your fears of sinister deeds driving the whole narrative points to you being the frightened.

[Eduardo-]

@Eduardo, I think you don't know what endemic means. It means that covid would continue to exist in the population but would be non-lethal. The common cold and most flus, for example, are endemic. It's what we want to happen.

Of course I know what endemic means.
Flu doesn't disappear because it mutates a lot (much more than covid). So, it is technically a new disease every year.

It won't disappear. No virus in history ever has without the aid of vaccines. The hope is that it becomes endemic.

The have been many diseases and epidemics in history, long before any vaccine existed.

[baka]

also, u need to understand the differences between the viruses.
if you compare polio with influenza A, it means u don't have enough understanding.
if it where that easy we would not have it anymore, just give the vaccine to everyone.
but thats not the case, and the same with covid. its mutate all the time and the vaccine just barely protect.
it seems, no matter what u do, you will get it one way or the other, if not this year, the next.

in the end, you could argue, how good are the vaccines when theres no end.
maybe they don't want to dismiss the vaccines and instead focus on immunology.
but vaccine is a "yearly" income they dont want to lose.

you most understand that the government works for the rich and powerful.
the rich and powerful want stability in their income. a yearly income is what they want.
and that means:

- you have a deadly disease, what can we do to let you live, as long you take our costly medicine?
- if you don't have money to pay? lets forget about it, no need to do research here
- people are healthy? we need to make them unhealthy!
- we have a solution to this disease. lets buy it and make a patent, and bury it somewhere. its not good for our growth.

thats the sick reality.

[Eduardo-]

Plus all your fears of sinister deeds driving the whole narrative points to you being the frightened.

On the contrary: you don't want to see that reality because that scares you.
I have to accept it because it is obvious, not because I like it, I fear, or whatever.

[Eduardo-]

99% are uneducated? You seem...

When you talk to doctors and hear them repeating the same things the media say... you figure what I mean when I say uneducated.

Perhaps I didn't choose the right word. May be "not well informed", is something more precise to what I meant.

[Eduardo-]

the same with covid. its mutate all the time and the vaccine just barely protect.

Covid doesn't mutate too much.

[baka]

Eight notable variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been found since September 2020 to August 2021 (so during 1 year)

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1971

so, 8 notable variants, of course theres a lot more but not significant enough to care, or too close to any of the early one so its almost the same.
and this article is from august. so a few more after that , with the latest "of interest" omicron.

I call this "mutate all the time" kind of virus...

[Schmidt]

When you're ready to accept the blame for previous lethal spreads, maybe we'll consider it.

I've posted the curves for Denmark already, which clearly show that their recent "huuuge 4th wave"
(for the most part, the D-variant) could only have been caused by the vaccinated (which were allowed to mingle unrestricted).

They trusted into exactly the thing you try to convince me of:
- that the unvacced are the main-spreaders
- vaccinated the hell out of their people (reducing the group of unvacced to *very* low percentages)
- and (for that reason) introduced a "free mingling for all" in the summer-months
- now all the vacced were "running naked, frolicking in the fields" (SCNR, but I love that picture of sapators)

And in November/December they are wondering "where that 4th wave came from"?

Sapator informed you already, that in Greece (since November) the unvacced were "shut away entirely".
Still the "curves were going up, unaffected" (with only the vacced running around "on green pastures",
or whatever they have in Greece).

Get real, please.

Edit: FWIW, here the current infection-curve of Denmark again:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/b...t&country=~DNK

Showing, that:
- in Dec. 2020-23 their second wave topped out at: ~45Thsd infected (unvacced: 100%)
- in Dec. 2021-21 their fourth wave seems to top-out at: ~117Thsd infected (unvacced at that point: ~10%)

How you will "explain away" that overall-increase of nearly factor 30, is beyond me.
(IMO, only 10% of unvacced could never have caused a near 3-fold top-out of the 4th wave, compared to the 2nd, where nobody was vacced)

Olaf

[Eduardo-]

Eight notable variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been found since September 2020 to August 2021 (so during 1 year)

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1971

so, 8 notable variants, of course theres a lot more but not significant enough to care, or too close to any of the early one so its almost the same.
and this article is from august. so a few more after that , with the latest "of interest" omicron.

I call this "mutate all the time" kind of virus...

No, flu mutates much more (in shorter periods). Immunization does not last because the viruses change too much.

[baka]

I never wrote about a competition between them.
I wrote that covid "also" mutates. I think 8 "notable" variants in 1 year is for me "a lot".
and in just 1½ year we got a variation that is so different that we need a completely new vaccine.
that means, we could get a new variation in ½-2 years that is completely different again.
and since omicron is spreading around very fast, almost unnatural fast, it also helps generate mutations faster, even if the virus is not as fatal, a mutation could be again, and we are back again with a delta-version or worse.

[Eduardo-]

I never wrote about a competition between them.
I wrote that covid "also" mutates. I think 8 "notable" variants in 1 year is for me "a lot".

No. AKAIK it is not much, compared to flu and cold.
Also, we would need to consider how much it mutates.
Because the important point is if infection from previous variants provides enough immunization.

From mid 2020 the information was that covid was quite stable.
The first variants appeared in late 2020.

Also, another important point is how many people will remain infected, because if the immunization last enough, and the virus does not mutate soon enough, and at a point there are too few people infected to allow (probabilistically) mutations to occur, the only possible outcome is the virus to go extinct.

and in just 1½ year we got a variation that is so different that we need a completely new vaccine.
that means, we could get a new variation in ½-2 years that is completely different again.

The point is time. 1 1/2 year is a lot. Because in three months there will be no person to infect because everyone will be already immunized.

and since omicron is spreading around very fast, almost unnatural fast, it also helps generate mutations faster, even if the virus is not as fatal, a mutation could be again, and we are back again with a delta-version or worse.

That's a possibility. That it mutates too much too soon, and thus the immunization from previous Omicron infection is not effective anymore.
That's not what have been happening so far. But infecting so many people increases that probability (to mutate too much, into a new variant).
That would be unfortunate but is a possibility.

[baka]

yeah, its a possibility, even if small.
but something is telling me that "if" it mutates it will be something even weaker.
and if its something more dangerous my suspicion is that its not natural but humans again that are not done with the pandemic.

anyway, its good news with omicron and still bad news what the media and politicians are doing.
lets hope for a big wave that will flush away the corrupted politicians.

[baka]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...1267966v2.full

some facts:

The negative estimates in the final period arguably suggest different behaviour and/or exposure patterns in the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts causing underestimation of the VE. This was likely the result of Omicron spreading rapidly initially through single (super-spreading) events causing many infections among young, vaccinated individuals.

read the whole study for more info.

[TysonLPrice]

Sorry...misunderstood the thread.