Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Yeah, grocery shopping is one of my few pleasures (what a sad statement). Don't think I would be happy with a service like that. Could be very helpful if you couldn't do your own for some reason. I don't wipe down anything, just wash my hands when I'm done putting the stuff away. I justify these choices by telling myself, if I'm going to catch the virus it's it's going to be from my son who lives with me, he works in a grocery store. I know, it's crap logic but I'm sticking by it.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
it's crap logic
It's fairly sound. Realistically it's more likely to get into your home via your son who's coming and going from you home every day (presumably) and with whom you're having extensive ongoing contact than from a weekly delivery that you're in contact with for maybe half an hour. That said, it's like software security: every extra layer is good.
Wow, sure had to cancel a lot of items and substitute others. A lot sold out between my ordering time and when the shopper got 'round to it. Lots of texting to and fro.
Generally I've found grocery deliveries to be pretty good but I haven't tried them since Corona hit. I tried early in the lockdown but couldn't even get onto the site so I imagine it's gotten pretty sketchy.
If I'm honest, I'm being pretty lax about cleaning groceries etc. which is pretty stupid as it's really the only vector that's likely to let the virus into my home. I'm going out to shop so it's not feasible to clean groceries as I pick them but I probably could be cleaning everything when I get home.
I was surprised that she showed up with no mask or PPE of any kind though.
Yeah, I don't see delivery people or shop staff getting the protection I think they should. I'd like to think that there are measures being taken at the depots to sanitise the outgoing parcels etc. but I'm not convinced. I've heard a few rumblings from drivers representatives that they feel at risk. As for shop staff, the lack of protection there, for people who are in direct contact with large numbers of possible carriers, is ridiculous.
Last edited by FunkyDexter; May 14th, 2020 at 02:08 AM.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Some good news, a reliable antibody test has been developed by the Swiss. As this rolls out it will be a massive leap forward in our ability to trace this thing and therefore plan appropriate response measures.
Talking heads are at great pains this morning to emphasise that antibody immunity is not guaranteed by catching it once but, fingers crossed that it is. If it is then we can start opening up much more safely by targeting people who are immune. And if it's not, at least we will know that and can plan accordingly.
So there's at least a glimmering light at the end of the tunnel.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by dilettante
Finally gave online grocery ordering/delivery a try. Now awaiting the results.
Shelf-stable items will go into cardboard boxes for quarantine, frozen and refrigerated into a plastic tub with a couple of gallon jugs of chilled water and some "blue ice" type chillers. I don't have a really large insulated cooler but the large tub with lid ought to work.
Not sure quite how I'll handle cleaning the items. Some with porous surfaces like boxed goods can probably sit for 3 or 4 days. Others I may decide to spray down with hydrogen peroxide solution and place back in the "cooler" for a day. I'll probably wash produce in peroxide water with a little bit of liquid soap in it. Plastic-wrapped baked goods may get a spray as well and then an airing outside.
Dry weather today here at least.
Checking around, there doesn't seem to be a lot of consensus on this process. Some go overboard while others discourage attempts at aggressive cleaning.
I noticed while shopping that toilet paper and peroxide are still hard to keep in stock.
I need rubbing alcohol to clean some medical devices I use. I've only found one bottle since the run on it started. That one was behind the counter and if you didn't ask they wouldn't mention it. My neighbors are helping me out giving me some of theirs. I'll need to be coming up with some kind of substitute soon.
And don't mention vodka...I wouldn't waste it like that
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
I use 91% isopropyl for some cleaning purposes unrelated to this pandemic. I have about 17 ounces still on hand but that's also a really scarce retail commodity now I'd imagine.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Some good news, a reliable antibody test has been developed by the Swiss. As this rolls out it will be a massive leap forward in our ability to trace this thing and therefore plan appropriate response measures.
Yeah that can be a great tool. Just saw a study that says the plasma treatments were safe, don't know how effective yet. But we are finding more and more tools at a very rapid pace. It's probably going to take quite a while for a vaccine but our knowledge of the virus is increasing rapidly. Gives me great hope that within a couple of months pandemic will be more manageable and the death rates will be much lower. Maybe not but we got a whole lot of smart people working very hard.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
At present, the Swedish approach is the most scientific.
If China had learned from Sweden, then China's situation would be better than Sweden, because the Chinese government's execution, medical resources and manufacturing capabilities are better than Sweden.
But if other countries learn from Sweden, the situation in their country will be worse.
China has won the war with poor weapons, but the costs, especially the economic losses, are devastating.
Last edited by dreammanor; May 15th, 2020 at 05:51 AM.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Wuhan re-testing nucleic acids for all residents (more than 10 million residents)
Here are a few pictures, which are scenes of nucleic acid detection for residents in the Wuhan community late at night in recent days. The medical staff stayed up all night to work overtime, and the people were in order. The testing of more than 10 million people needed to be completed within 10 days. It is really not easy.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Any Jim Gaffigan fans out there?
He's been posting videos from lockdown, both segments from his old televised material and new stuff from his home with family. He's just a goofy regular guy, so expect a lot of cringeworthy stuff.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Fangzhouzi(Fangshimin):
It is now found that the monoclonal antibody on the memory cells of people infected with SARS in 2003 can neutralize the new coronavirus. Does this mean that the immunity generated by infection with the new coronavirus is also likely to last for more than ten or twenty years?
It seems to be a good news.
In addition, perhaps this may explain that China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) died in the COVID-19 epidemic less than other countries.
Last edited by dreammanor; May 19th, 2020 at 01:10 PM.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
In addition, perhaps this may explain that China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) died in the COVID-19 epidemic less than other countries.
Attached Images Attached Images
What in that Abstract is relevant to the amount of deaths in China? Just sounds like some promising test results.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Yeah, most outlets realized he was just using press briefings as political theater and wasn't adding anything of value. Sometimes, he was even causing harm by spreading bad information.
Anyways, I'm more disturbed be the re-infection rate on that aircraft carrier. If those who have had the virus can be re-infected, that's just not a good thing.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
Anyways, I'm more disturbed be the re-infection rate on that aircraft carrier. If those who have had the virus can be re-infected, that's just not a good thing.
Agreed. As I said before "herd immunity" may not be possible and vaccines might be of limited value. We'd have to know why people can get it more than once. Mutations or something else not yet understood?
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by wes4dbt
What in that Abstract is relevant to the amount of deaths in China? Just sounds like some promising test results.
When the SARS epidemic broke out in 2003, Hong Kong was the hardest hit area, followed by Taiwan and Mainland China. In other words, Chinese should have the most SARS antibodies. It is now found that those who acquired antibodies for SARS infection 16 years ago still have antibodies today, and these SARS antibodies can neutralize the current new coronavirus. If this medical research is true, then it perhaps can explain why the number of Chinese deaths is much lower than in other countries. Of course, extreme protection measures taken by the Chinese government are also one of the important reasons for reducing the further spread of the virus. (In addition, if I say that China's medical resources are the most abundant, will anyone think this is a joke? I will further explain China's medical resources and medical system in the future.)
The reason why Wuhan caused a large number of deaths at the beginning of the epidemic was that rumors and panic caused hundreds of thousands of people to flock to the hospitals at the same time, and caused the medical system to collapse. At the same time, it also caused a large number of medical staff to be infected, and these medical staff further infected the people who flocked to the hospital for testing.
If the antibodies caused by the new coronavirus could be maintained for 10 years or even 20 years, it is undoubtedly an excellent thing for the entire world.
Last edited by dreammanor; May 19th, 2020 at 11:19 PM.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by dilettante
Agreed. As I said before "herd immunity" may not be possible and vaccines might be of limited value. We'd have to know why people can get it more than once. Mutations or something else not yet understood?
At present, the degree and speed of mutation of the new coronavirus is much smaller than that of influenza virus.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
What in that Abstract is relevant to the amount of deaths in China?
I guess the argument goes:-
1. China and the Far East was hit much harder by SARS than the rest of the world so, presumably, has a much higher level of anti body development
2. From the linked article, anti body immunity to SARS confers some level of immunity to Covid 19.
3. That would explain the relatively low infection and death rates from Covid 19 we've seen in the Far East.
The end to end isn't immediately useful but is, none the less, interesting and point 2 on it's own is a potentially very useful development. I'm sceptical about point 2 as I haven't heard it from anywhere else but it's be great news if it's true because it does imply a much easier path to a vaccine. @Dreamanor, do you have a link to a source on that so we can check it's bona fides?
I'm more disturbed be the re-infection rate on that aircraft carrier
Is there a link to an article on this. I haven't heard anything about it so I'm curious to have a read.
Last edited by FunkyDexter; May 20th, 2020 at 03:02 AM.
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Maybe you need to download the PDF in the link and study it patiently. Fangshimin is a Ph.D. in biochemistry from Michigan State University. He often studies these papers, but I won't read them.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Maybe you need to download the PDF in the link and study it patiently
No need. The link contains all the authors, they're credible and are mostly based at a credible bio research facility in Northern Italy. That's enough for me to count it as a compelling source.
The pertinent sentence in the academic paper is here: "One antibody, named S309, potently neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV pseudoviruses as well as authentic SARS-CoV-2 by engaging the S receptor-binding domain."
Looks pretty positive to me, thanks for the link.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
There are plenty more. If all they are doing is testing positive, then it sounds like more of what that Korean study in the video Dilettante posted, found. However, if they are actually getting sick, that would be more disturbing...to some extent. It's still not conclusive. They might have had COVID-19, got better, then caught the flu. They'd get tested a second time, and could still turn up positive due to dead virus, though their symptoms are now flu, not COVID. Since they're young, there might be little or no difference between the manifestation of the two.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Just read through the article. It's interesting and difficult to explain. Dil's linked video to dead viruses giving a positive response does provide a possible explanation but I'm not sure why that wouldn't have given a positive on the two tests they'd each passed - was it a different form of test perhaps? Or carried out under less rigorous circumstances (I imagine the US navy are pretty rigorous at testing sailors before letting them back into a hothouse environment). That definitely bears watching.
Thanks for the link.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Well, considering our experience with testing here in the US, it's hard to be certain what negative tests mean. For one thing, do we know the false negative rate of the tests used? I have a feeling it's a bit high, but not sure. Also, while the navy has a pretty good reputation, it has taken some serious hits of late. The result has come from a practice of stretching people too far. After all, we've had destroyers run into ships in two different occasions in the last year or two, and both times it appears to be ultimately due to fatigue from overwork. So, if the testing is rigorous, but the testers are overloaded, how does that impact test results?
We may never know what those cases came from. Hopefully, the S. Korea study is correct, and these cases were due to errors.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
we've had destroyers run into ships in two different occasions in the last year or two
I hadn't heard about that but we had a brand new submarine run aground a few years back. A mate of mine was one of the engineers responsible for signing it off immediately before it went to sea. Needless to say we blamed it on a technical error. He says otherwise but the rest of us are pretty sure about it.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Take a Look at this nice simulation.
This is an abstract simulation that illustrates how social distancing reduces transmission rate of a contagious agent in a population, such as the virus that causes coronavirus disease. This reduces the number of people demanding medical attention at any given time. http://ventrella.com/covid19/
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Just want to say: Dominic Cummings... what a douche!
I like that simulator reexre. I wouldn't put too much stock into the results (in fact, they tell you not to, that's not what it's for) but it does give a very good demonstration of the basic principles and highlights why measures like the lockdown are so important. If you want to see a particularly sobering example, leave the social distancing turned down and watch what happens when the hospital reaches capacity.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
I found the same number dead (16) for three runs with no social distancing, and one run at half distancing. Another run at half distancing ended up with 11 dead.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Just want to say: Dominic Cummings... what a douche!
Dominic Cummings for those that dont know is Boris's Special Adviser, one of the architects of Brexit and the current power behind the PM.
During in Lockdown he decided to ignore the rules he helped set for everyone else and instead of self isolating at home when he / his wife were developing Covid symptoms, drove 260 miles across the country to his dads estate so he could stay in a nice cottage near his family. He did this apparently so if he and his wife became unable to look after there 4 year old child his nieces could help out. In the end he says they didn't actually need any help with child care.
The problem being firstly this is clearly in breach of the rules set for everyone else and he didn't even try to find alternative child care arrangements in London so he could stay where he was, and then he was seen later after he had recovered from the virus in the local area (to where he was staying) taking a day trip on his wife's birthday to a local beauty spot, when the advise he helped write to everyone else was to stay at home and not do this.
His excuse for this visit was that he was testing his eyesight was ok for the long drive back to London, by driving a 60 mile round trip with his wife and child in the car was one of the most bizarre things i have heard. (and is now an internet meme)
None of this would be a story apart form the fact that Cummings is in the heart of Government designing the rules for everyone else to follow when clearly he sees these same rules dont apply to him, then secondly he held a press conference (which may the first press conference ever by a special adviser) explaining his actions which has only reinforced the fact that he thinks that the rules dont apply to him with the general public.
Boris standing by his special adviser is doing him untold damage politically to the point that over 30 members of his own party have called for Cummings to resign and 1 MP has actually resigned his government post.
It has become the story in the UK ahead of anything else and is dominating the news, currently Boris seems to think he can ride out the storm but the storm doesn't look like dying down anytime soon.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Just to show how this story is continuing to be big news over here is the front page of the Daily Star, a right leaning tabloid paper. its actually pretty funny for them.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
and he didn't even try to find alternative child care arrangements in London
Oh come on. Where could the governments chief advisor possibly find child care in central London? What impossibly high standards are you setting? I mean, it's not like the House of Commons has a creche and it's not like he's got an army of civil servants who could have lent a hand...
oh… wait...
Boris standing by his special adviser is doing him untold damage politically to the point that over 30 members of his own party have called for Cummings to resign and 1 MP has actually resigned his government post.
And 20 points of popularity in a day
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
I'm holding off criticising that until we see what he actually announces. I think we can pretty much guess what it'll look like but I'd rather give him the benefit of the doubt until we actually see it.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
Originally Posted by dilettante
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