Will tablets eventually replace laptops? [SERIOUS]

[RhinoBull]

In my town I see that laptops are rapidly pushing out desktops (and that stands for home and corporate users) and tablets filling (slowly but very steady) the traditional laptop slot.
I came across this blog on CNET and thought it was interesting enough to link here.
Also, those who believe tables don't have (or won't have) enough graphics power think twice.
Comment on it as you wish.

[techgnome]

It's not about graphics power... it's about power and usability. I think tablets are just fine as a consumption device, primarily media and internet. Where they suck though is as a development platform. At least until you attach it to your TV (or some other larger monitor) and a keyboard... but then at that point, you've lost the portability... might as well stick to a more traditional system.
Now... if you're looking at it strictly from a consumer products point of view, then yes, I think tablets and the newer ultrabooks that are starting to come out (or going to be, there were a number being introduced at CES) then, yes, laptops are starting to fade in popularity as people catch on to what they really use their portable devices for (youtube, email & face book).

-tg

[dilettante]

I sure don't see laptops pushing desktops out of the market. Desktops already imply a decent monitor, keyboard, mouse, and generally a decent desk and chair making serious work more practical. I don't really see myself trying to program from the kitchen counter, family room sofa, patio futon, or anything like that anyway. And desktops tend to have longer life since they are more practical to update and expand with time.

However that doesn't mean laptops have no use. If you have to work in multiple locations (client sites, etc.) then being able to carry in your laptop makes good sense. Just get one with a decent-sized keyboard and buy a wireless mouse if you need to do anything serious.

I don't think anyone sees a tablet as a serious platform for programming, writing, or things of that nature though. You need a real keyboard and though my tablet can dock to its keyboard and I can even clip it to the tablet for carrying it around... that's not what it's for.

I use it mainly for checking email, doing quick things via Remote Desktop, web surfing using a touch-enhanced browser, and for multimedia access (it streams from my DLNA server just fine, Hulu Desktop, DeskTube, Acer ClearFi, and Windows Media Center work great). But if I need to write back with a serious reply I either go sit at the dekstop or else dock it with its keyboard and find a good table and chair. Since mine is running Win7 I can always treat it as a low-powered Windows PC at that point and even open up code to review it if I have to.

Remember, tablets are normally fairly constrained as to local storage (SSD and an SD card or something) and RAM (often just 2GB on most current devices at a reasonable price). That's where the RDP client comes in handy as long as your main PC is accessible.

For viewing movies it also has an HDMI output, making it easy to attach a TV. This also is handy for meetings, most recent projectors accept HDMI input too.

[RhinoBull]

You are talking about current limitations and I'm about the future which is very bright: more powerfull processors, graphics, memory, storage, etc, etc, etc...
If you don't see that comming then it's too bad.

[dilettante]

I guess I assumed you were talking about real life and real use today, not pie in the sky and jam butties for all.

You did claim you see this "rapidly" happening after all. It mystifies me what graphics power has to do with anything unless you're one of those gam3r boyz who is 35 and living in Mom's basement yet.

[RhinoBull]

It mystifies me what graphics power has to do with anything unless you're one of those gam3r boyz who is 35 and living in Mom's basement yet.

Video/photo editing, architects/engineers/ads people(or creative)/movie editors/many others in need of that power... Categories are endless. Hello?

[dilettante]

Ok, I see your point there but if you've done much of any of these things you'll find my points about the advantage of a stable office workspace still hold.

A good chair is worth a lot if you aren't just a casual plinker.

[SambaNeko]

I think tablets are just fine as a consumption device, primarily media and internet. Where they suck though is as a development platform.

Yup. Tablets are great for consumption, not production. I don't think any amount of upgrades to tablets' specs will change that, as it's more of an issue with form factor.

[techgnome]

if we're talking about pie in the sky future tech... then I think the eyePhone has everything beat....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaHUpWuqNHY

-tg

[RhinoBull]

LOL tg, you're repeating youself... I didn't know you were that old.

[arunb]

blets are great for consumption, not production. I don't think any amount of upgrades to tablets' specs will change that, as it's more of an issue with form factor.

They said the same thing for laptops...that laptops could never replace desktops...I think in the future we are going to see more of tablets.

A tablet is more suited for portability than a laptop....touchscreen technology is also going to get better and in future we won't be needing a keyboard and mouse..

[RhinoBull]

They said the same thing for laptops...that laptops could never replace desktops...I think in the future we are going to see more of tablets....

Indeed. Just try remembering what we used have vs now: ugly, bulky, heavy, lousy performers and now feather light, beautifull and overperfoming standard desktops.

[kleinma]

Hybrids seem to be the most promising. Lenovo has a laptop coming out that is ultrabook thin, and flips around to become a tablet. It will run Windows 8 and should give you the best of both worlds. A regular nice ultrabook style laptop when you need to have a keyboard and touchpad, and a tablet for when that makes sense.

[RhinoBull]

If you're referring to Lenovo Yoga then it's an awesome idea but I'm not crazy about running Win8 on it.

[kleinma]

If you're referring to Lenovo Yoga then it's an awesome idea but I'm not crazy about running Win8 on it.

What are you crazy about running on it? Android? iOS?

[dilettante]

Windows 8 has a serious problem, the same problem Win7 has (but worse), which is the same problem Vista has (but worse):

Preinstalled/slipstreamed .Net Framework (Anders' Folly).


While Vista only uses it for a small number of absurd things (like a few MMC snap-ins that should have been C++ or even VB6), you cannot banish .Net from a Windows version newer than XP.

The .Net Framework is a hydra-headed hazard. Each month's Windows Update security patch burden contains serious security updates to anywhere from 2 to 4 versions of the Framework. You also get out of band emergency fixes for .Net zero-day exploits through the month as they occur.

.Net represents an enormous attack surface that is entirely unnecessary. But slipstreaming .Net into OS releases drags everyone down.


I have two systems now where that are caught in a loop repeatly trying to install different Framework security patches that just fail to install over and over again. One Win7, and one Vista.

MS support keeps sending me crap to try but now they are throwing up their hands after 4 weeks. Their answer: reinstall the OS after reformatting the hard drive.


No, .Net isn't a virus, just the world's biggest malware vector.

To clarify: it is just large, complex software that undergoes a lot of revision. Security holes are bound to pop up. But there is no excuse to make this mandatory on a user's system, and even less to make it impossible to uninstall completely and then reinstall.

And no, the dotnetfx cleanup tool can't help - because of this slipstreaming.

[RhinoBull]

What are you crazy about running on it? Android? iOS?

iOS would be nice (don't think hardware supports it) but I would more then likely go with Win7.

[dilettante]

BTW:

My rant above isn't trying to say "Get rid of .Net" nearly as much as "If .Net is a given, and it requires frequent important security fixes... then I need to be able to apply them."

And "Whoops, well something got hosed. Try these 18 things, but you'll probably need to reformat/reinstall Windows" isn't a great answer.

[d_glienna]

Win8 is not even in BETA stage yet. Now is the time to report things, and get them changed. I'm liking the Lenavo IdeaPad YOGA, out later this year.

[RhinoBull]

Please don't drag this thread from what it's was to win 8 or .net crap.

[kareninstructor]

From my experience thinking of how I use computers is that desktop, laptops and tablets lines will blur as time goes by. I do not keep up to date on what technologies are or will be but my guess is your computer will be a tablet of some sort that can plug into some form of docking station which makes it per-say a desktop computer with multiple monitors or on the road attach a keyboard and mouse or use it without keyboard and mouse. Of course a lot depends on what you use a computer for so there are many permutations to consider.

Our agency is slowly moving away from towers and favor of laptops with docking stations.

Personally I do a great deal of task on my iPad from email, surfing the web, playing guitar or piano. Which brings up another interesting thought in regards to music.

My iPad cost $500, guitar amp similator $50 including lots of extras including 8 track recording, $20 for a piano/synth which can be controlled via my Korg DW8000 synth or stand-alone. When I first started with music my "real" Marshall amp cost over $2,000 and my synth cost between $1500 and $2500. So my point is at least with music (and I am sure with other things) someone can get into music with much less cost. Sure playing music on a tablet is not the same as the real deal but for someone who cannot afford the real items this is a dream come true. Plus you are not tied down to one physical spot i.e. I connect my guitar wireless to my iPad (or my iPhone). I can dock to a music capable docking station too.

Alesis docking station
Amplitube

[KiwiDexter]

I sure don't see laptops pushing desktops out of the market. Desktops already imply a decent monitor, keyboard, mouse, and generally a decent desk and chair making serious work more practical. I don't really see myself trying to program from the kitchen counter, family room sofa, patio futon, or anything like that anyway. And desktops tend to have longer life since they are more practical to update and expand with time.

However that doesn't mean laptops have no use. If you have to work in multiple locations (client sites, etc.) then being able to carry in your laptop makes good sense. Just get one with a decent-sized keyboard and buy a wireless mouse if you need to do anything serious.

I don't think anyone sees a tablet as a serious platform for programming, writing, or things of that nature though. You need a real keyboard and though my tablet can dock to its keyboard and I can even clip it to the tablet for carrying it around... that's not what it's for.

I use it mainly for checking email, doing quick things via Remote Desktop, web surfing using a touch-enhanced browser, and for multimedia access (it streams from my DLNA server just fine, Hulu Desktop, DeskTube, Acer ClearFi, and Windows Media Center work great). But if I need to write back with a serious reply I either go sit at the dekstop or else dock it with its keyboard and find a good table and chair. Since mine is running Win7 I can always treat it as a low-powered Windows PC at that point and even open up code to review it if I have to.

Remember, tablets are normally fairly constrained as to local storage (SSD and an SD card or something) and RAM (often just 2GB on most current devices at a reasonable price). That's where the RDP client comes in handy as long as your main PC is accessible.

For viewing movies it also has an HDMI output, making it easy to attach a TV. This also is handy for meetings, most recent projectors accept HDMI input too.

60 person office, all desktops now replaced with lappies. Ideal device, pull it out of the docking station, head into a meeting

Can't see tablets replacing laptops however, as they don't seem robust enough in a manufacturing environment.

[dilettante]

Can't see tablets replacing laptops however, as they don't seem robust enough in a manufacturing environment.

Wow, if anything I'd think the laptops would be the more fragile of the two. The hinge is a very weak point and a common point of failure in the more "muscular" environments.

It's obvious that laptops bridge the spectrum, so if you're going to have one device that's the way to go. Personally I find a desktop much more productive though. You can start adding external keyboards and monitors to a laptop to try to get to the same place but the Rube Goldberg factor kicks in pretty quickly, along with the cost.

[honeybee]

Please don't drag this thread from what it's was to win 8 or .net crap.

Seeing as this thread is in CC I don't see any reason to not do that. Having said that your post is offending to all hardcore chit chatters who are trying their best to derail all threads here.

To help the derailment, why shouldn't the tablets replace laptops? By replacing vitamins contained in the natural foods, tablets have already proved their potential as being the replacement of everything natural or unnatural. So yes, tablets will eventually replace everything!

.

[Nightwalker83]

I reckon tablets won't replace laptops for one main and very important reason, accessiblity! To my knowledge they can be very hard for a people with disabilities (like myself) to use.

Edit:

Or for that matter other people whom need to do their jobs, such as software, website developers, business types, etc.

[OhGreen]

The whole concept of "will this take over that" is a very vague debate.

A tablet is at present (and for the foreseeable future) used for different purposes to a laptop/desktop, I don't buy a laptop with the intent of being able to wander round reading my emails. I also don't buy a tablet with the idea I can sit down at a desk for an 8 hour day at work to stare at a tiny screen.

You may say "oh yes but in the future a tablet might magically transform into a 32" monitor with a mind control feature which allows me to dictate a text document through thought alone." but there isn't a product released or set to be released with such idyllic features.

A user who needs the best performance where portability isn't needed, will buy a desktop.

A user who needs good performance where a certain degree of portability is needed, will buy a laptop.

A user who either doesn't need the above's sit down desk usability or performance but still wants access to emails/internet/media on really portable device which is more user friendly than a smart phone, will purchase a tablet.


It's a new market, not a replacement.

[dilettante]

It's a new market, not a replacement.

Maybe a bit like the footmouse used in making videos. Instead of the distraction of the presenter's hands clicking and clacking on a keyboard and mouse, the footmouse makes it easier to "invisibly" transfer back and forth to screen capture, powerpoint slides, advance to the next 'prompter page, etc.

But nobody would want to use one for creating an icon or editing text given a choice.

For all I know they make a footkeyboard too. Can't be worse than texting on a 10-key pad on a low end phone but anyone who got proficient at it might look funny while dreaming at night.

[Shaggy Hiker]

As far as I'm concerned, it comes down to one thing: The keyboard. You will never have a keyboard on a tablet that is as effective as a physical keyboard because you will never get the tactile feedback. You don't get those little bumps on the F and J keys. That's fine for those of you who watch your fingers when you type, but not so good for the rest of us.

[RhinoBull]

There are plenty of good keyboards for tablets so that is a lousy argument Shaggy.

[dilettante]

Some tablets even come with a keyboard/minidock they can plug in to. These replicate USB ports or have a small hub in them, provide a wired Ethernet port, etc. as well as providing a laptop-like or better keyboard.

Example: http://us.acer.com/ac/en/US/content/iconia-tab-w500

[Shaggy Hiker]

There are plenty of good keyboards for tablets so that is a lousy argument Shaggy.

Ok, so now I have a tablet and a keyboard. The tablet acts as a small-screen, touch-driven, laptop. That would have some advantages. Not having worked with tablets, the two advantages I see are these:

1) Lighter weight.
2) Faster 'boot'. In fact, near instant.

Those are certainly advantages that I would be interested in, and the fact that the screen is much smaller than a laptop probably would be a trade I'd be willing to make for advantage #1. As for advantage #2, there is no reason that it shouldn't be available in a laptop, too, and I understand that Win8 is moving in that direction. Boot times should be sub-second, and there is no fundamental reason why they aren't. In other words, advantage #2 is ephemeral in that the boot speed of a tablet should exist for any OS and isn't an inherent feature of a tablet.

However, at that point, what is the difference between a tablet and a laptop? If there isn't any difference, then how could a tablet replace a laptop? I need the features of a laptop (keyboard). If that is added to a tablet, even with a peripheral, then what is the fundamental difference between the two?

Perhaps the question should be: Will tablets and laptops eventually converge to the point where you can't tell them apart except by name?

[penagate]

It's a new market, not a replacement.

Sometimes new markets take over old ones.
Who still has a PDA? Many people... but they're called smartphones now.

[dilettante]

I think the idea behind a casually-connected keyboard for a tablet is so that you can use the tablet most of the time and skip a separate laptop for those times you really need a keyboard.

If you don't have a lot of tasks that lend themselves well to a multitouch screen, then perhaps you really want a laptop. Then you have the other compromise: a laptop where you can fold the screen all the way back and use it occasionally as a really heavy tablet.

Clearly the market hasn't matured yet. Some tablets are quite lightweight but sacrifice so much capability then that they become little more than an entertainment device, like a big Zune player. Often they can handle web browsing but not much more, maybe eBook viewing.


Maybe all we can really say is time will tell.

[OhGreen]

Sometimes new markets take over old ones.
Who still has a PDA? Many people... but they're called smartphones now.

Who still has a PDA? Who had a PDA in the first place...?
They were a tremendous flop.

The laptop/desktop market is beyond huge it's global and on top of that their functionality allows them to stay in use for 5+ years. They don't have the technological downside in comparison to tablets that PDA's had to smartphones therefore the progression isn't going to be definitive.

Here's a few reasons tablets, as they currently are, will never replace laptops:

- Laptops have larger screens, if you create a tablet with a 17" screen.. imagine sitting on the tube with that on your lap trying to browse the web, it would be like attempting to prop up a concrete slab.

- Physical keyboard and touchpad. I can't see people preferring to collect all their tablet accessories before heading out, with my laptop I just pick it up and I'm ready to go.

- Performance. Unless tablets get larger, they will never have the same performance. If tablets get larger, they remove their party piece of convenient transportability.

As I said before, tablets are a new market. In fact I take that back, they have expanded the smartphone market. They're used in different situations and as such more than likely won't replace laptops.

What is more likely is that the tablet/laptop market will merge as well as the technologies.

[RhinoBull]

Here's a few reasons tablets, as they currently are, will never replace laptops:

- Laptops have larger screens, if you create a tablet with a 17" screen.. imagine sitting on the tube with that on your lap trying to browse the web, it would be like attempting to prop up a concrete slab.

Your argument is well taken although I don't think it's strong enough: 17" laptops are heavy to carry so most people I know are buying them as desktop replacements.
The point of 10" screen tablet is its portability (and mobility) - if you need much larger screen (at home perhaps) most devices allow pairing hdtv via blue tooth, etc.

- Physical keyboard and touchpad. I can't see people preferring to collect all their tablet accessories before heading out, with my laptop I just pick it up and I'm ready to go.

Extremely weak argument: see my previous reply (and also dilettante's).
You don't have to "collect" all accessories - you can have them all together in a very nice little portfolio.
Btw, why in the world you need a touchpad for a touch screen?

- Performance. Unless tablets get larger, they will never have the same performance. If tablets get larger, they remove their party piece of convenient transportability.

Another weak argument: some of high end tablets already outperform budget laptops and this is just the beginning.
More powerfull laptops are replacing desktops right now - desktops era is past and it's just matter of time until they are completely gone (similar to crt monitors, tv).

[OhGreen]

If you don't have a touchpad/mouse how are you going to right click.

Accuracy of a touch screen is limited by your fingers, touchpads and mice don't suffer this drawback.

Imagine playing an FPS with a touch screen.

You can't compare a budget model with a high end model as a fair argument. The intention of a high end model is to have the best whereas the budget is meant to be cheap but do the job. If you compare a £500 laptop (any Intel core i5) to a £500 tablet (Apple iPad etc), you can't say there isn't a vast performance difference?

[OhGreen]

On a side note, slightly related I guess...

Will there be a solution to the below:

greasy fingers + touch screen = impaired visual experience & constant cleaning

[dilettante]

Hmm, you haven't heard of "tap and hold" I guess. Sounds like you've never used a tablet computer... or a recent phone.

Might consider washing your hands once in a while too. But yes they need cleaning much like a keyboard needs the crumbs shaken out now and then. I don't live in Mom's basement playing games, but if I did a desktop makes a more cost-effective and generally more powerful game platform. Or buy a console.

I don't think anyone is suggesting tablets will replace other devices though. That was the question here and I think we all pretty much think the answer is "no" - at least until they change substantially.

But I think a lot of users with a desktop could skip a laptop and go with a dockable tablet. It depends on their portable computing needs, and if they aren't keying-intensive a tablet might be just fine.


One thing I've noticed is that when something on the television prompts me to dig deeper it is pretty easy to grab the tablet and go Web surfing compared to dealing with a laptop.

[Shaggy Hiker]

But yes they need cleaning much like a keyboard needs the crumbs shaken out now and then.

That's crazy! What do you think the mouse is for. DUH!! (on a side note, is it really supposed to squeak every time I 'click' it?)

Seriously, I only clean out the keyboard once in a lifetime. In fact, the last time I tried cleaning my keyboard, I dislodged the bones of a new species of dinosaur, and found a colony of tiny, intelligent, swamp beings that communicated in a quaint amish dialect and sacrificed cheetos to the "Thunder God". It was a very disturbing experience,and I haven't tried cleaning a keyboard since.

@0-Green: I had a PDA. I was sorely challenged to find something useful to do with it. There were a few things that were marginally useful, but none of them could really justify the cost. However, I got the PDA for testing a program that really WAS useful, but was also such an utter niche that it mostly served to highlight the limits of the device. The program was a fish creel survey program which would be used by creel clerks in a VERY remote area. They had no connectivity, nor expectation of connectivity, but the program allowed them to easily collect survey information into a fairly robust database that could then be downloaded onto a laptop at the end of the shift. A smartphone app could be written to do the same thing, these days, but they didn't exist at the time.

From that I learned that a PDA was a useful device for recording certain types of complex data as long as the data acquisition was of limitted duration, required great mobility on the part of the user, and was in a tolerable environment. Pretty narrow specs, really.

[FunkyDexter]

Tablets probably will take over but it'll be a bitter pill to swallow.

Actually, I think I buy the convergance argument as most likely. With tech becoming ever more compact I struggle to believe that the raw power of a desktop won't eventually be condensable into a docked tablet and a similar argument can be applied to a laptop. At that point the tablet and various docking gadgets will just make more sense.

But then you get into a philosophical argument of where the boundaries lie. Is a tablet docked to a "proper" keyboard and monitor at a fixed desk and chair any different from a edsktop? It is, after all, an exact parallel with the big grey box in that set up.

Either way, I think it's still a way off happening. The technology gap will probably close quite quickly but the cultural gap won't. Human nature is to fear change and people will tend to stick with what they know a long time after it actually makes logical sense to change.