This question is very different depending on how much you believe the foreman's estimate.

Suppose you completely believe the foreman--that is, you are certain that, given 5000 identical scenarios, only ~100 (i.e. 1/50th) will ruin the blade. You will make $2,000 (the cost of the wood) 49 out of 50 times. You will lose $9,000 (the cost of the blade) 1 out of 50 times. Over those 5000 identical scenarios, for instance, you'd expect to make 4900/5000*$2,000 - 100/5000*$9,000 = $1960-$180 = $1,780, on average.

Since you'd expect to make a profit if you believe the foreman, you should indeed go ahead and rip saw the log anyway. This analysis assumes the only cost if you hit the pin is replacing the blade--no lost time or collateral damage--since other sources of cost weren't specified.


If you don't believe the foreman, or if you only believe him a little, you might well not want to saw the log. For instance, if you believed the foreman was overly optimistic and the odds were really 1 in 5 of hitting the chunk of steel, the previous analysis would say you should not saw.