Georgia? Any Russians here?

[SurfDemon]

I'm guessing we're all aware of what is happening in Georgia, but the silence has been deafening in this forum (on this topic). Is it because we don't have any Russians to argue with?

Is there anyone on here who thinks this is a good thing?

[nemaroller]

I think it is a sad thing we don't have ANY Russians to argue with in this forum. Sometimes I wish to argue with some Cubans, but unfortunately, they aren't allowed access to such capitalistic drivel as vbforums.

[nemaroller]

Good or bad - we're mostly powerless to stop it. If Russia wants to seize control of a country or two for a few days, who is going to stop her?

As an American, I like a strong Russia - lets everyone else in the world put their anti-American fears into perspective.

[SurfDemon]

As an American, I like a strong Russia - lets everyone else in the world put their anti-American fears into perspective.

What's that then? Because you have lots of weapons you too can piss all over other smaller countries..... nah, we already have that perspective

I have to say, I don't really follow your logic here.. so, if I live in a village with a big aggressive bully who occasionally beats the crap out of someone, you're saying it's better that I live in a village with two big aggressive bullies - who occasionally beat the crap out of twice as many people? The bullies aren't going to fight each other (look at how quickly the US army lept to Georgia's defence....*)


* Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that the US should have dived in there, just that I get the impression that you think the US is somehow stopping Russia from doing whatever it wants.


Sorry, with the lack of any Russian's for me to harp on at, I seem to have picked on you as an easy target. My excuse is that I'm bored.

[nemaroller]

To start, it is not like I can speak for the US, nor you for Canada, or a Russian for Russia, so we're just really debating as individuals - no offense can be taken.

The meaning behind my comment is that following the Iraq invasion, the US has taken slack from the popular press and the socialites about waging an illegal war - even though it was approved via emergency funding and 'Show of Support' votes by the US Congress. Therefore, it was not illegal. However, it is too silly to debate the legality of a war anyway. I truly believe Bush thought Saddam had Weapons of Mass Destruction, and with his repeated UN inspection violations, it's not a hard perspective to engross yourself in.

The invasion of Georgia, far past the regions in question, is a far different manner. Georgia did not invade Russian land, however, the reverse is absolutely true.

Do I think the US stops Russia from doing whatever it wants? Absolutely, yes I do - along with all the Western democracies. If Canada stood alone against Russia for oil in the Arctic, the ruskies would have it in a heartbeat. Not a slam against the Canadian military - just that its size militarily couldn't compete.

[SurfDemon]

Fair enough, I can't argue with you on any of those points....


.....soooooo I'm back to waiting for a Russian to pop into this thread

[capsulecorpjx]

Why did South Ossetia cecede from Georgia in the first place?

I don't like seperatism unless there is a valid reason, such as heavy oppression.

In any case, Georgia is stupid for trying to capitalize on Putin being at the Olympics to retake Ossetia. It probably just pissed off Russia even more.

Now that the cease fire has been halted, the Russians definately need to keep their word. They are already bad for killing civilians and homes.

[FunkyDexter]

Why did South Ossetia cecede from Georgia in the first place?

Historically they're separate countries but you have to go back quite a long way. The old USSR did recognise them as separate, though, and gave South Ossetia a high level of autonomy. When Georgia was ceceding from the USSR the South Ossetians wanted to remain part of the USSR and have retained close ties with Russia while Georgia sought closer ties with Western Europe and the US.

A few arguments in Russia's favour (and I'm playing Devils Advocate here, I don't think anyone's in the right on this one):-
1. South Ossetia declared independance in 1989 - nearly 20 years ago. It's never been recognised by the UN and it certainly hasn't been recognised by Georgia but it was supported by the US.
2. Georgia has tried to forcibly bring South Ossetia back under it's remit before in the Ossetian-Georgian conflict in the 90s. This was a pretty brutal affair and some of the actions on both sides could be described as atrocities, including burning villages etc. Generally the Georgians were far worse and it was only the threat of conflict with russia that forced Georgia to back down.
3. If you believe Russian reports (and it's questionable that you should but there aren't many others coming out at the moment) the Georgian actions this time round were extremely heavy handed. I heard one radio interview with a South Ossettian saying that 1000 people had been massaccared overnight.
4. I haven't seen any surveys but there have been many interviews with South Ossetians on the TV and radio in the last few days and they've invariably said they want the Georgians out and are happy that the Russians have come to the rescue (which is how they see it).

Don't get me wrong, given their international stance over the last decade, I don't think the Russians are motivated by anything other than self interest in their current actions but I don't think the situations anywhere near as cut and dried as it might at first appear. The parallels to Kossovo are pretty obvious and we went in there (without UN backing). I don't think parallels to Iraq hold much water though, this situation is entirely different.

edit> Corrected the date South Ossetia declared independence from 1999 to 1989 - just a brain fart on my part.

[SurfDemon]

Thanks FD, that was very informative.

I have to say that I don't know much about the details (as you say, we are getting very one sided reports), but I can't help but think that Russia has been just itching to show the world that they still have a huge army to be reckoned with.

[zaza]

Russia have always been itching for excuses to show the world that they're still a superpower; probably because they know that they aren't really. Pride is a powerful thing. They're also pretty peeved over the breakup of Yugoslavia and the loss of influence associated with that, and they think that the West screwed them over. Now that the shoe is effectively on the other foot; the separatists want to be more closely aligned with Russia rather than to the West, they're more than happy to seize the opportunity. It's pretty questionable as to whether the handing out of Russian passports was actually necessary, but I'm sure the guys in South Ossetia are also happy to take whatever assistance is offered them at the moment.

I reckon the world could be a lot better a place if we'd make the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council (UK, US, France, Russia, China) normal members instead and lose the veto; but of course since that would have to be accomplished by passing a motion and these 5 have the veto....

[capsulecorpjx]

Russia have always been itching for excuses to show the world that they're still a superpower; probably because they know that they aren't really. Pride is a powerful thing. They're also pretty peeved over the breakup of Yugoslavia and the loss of influence associated with that, and they think that the West screwed them over. Now that the shoe is effectively on the other foot; the separatists want to be more closely aligned with Russia rather than to the West, they're more than happy to seize the opportunity. It's pretty questionable as to whether the handing out of Russian passports was actually necessary, but I'm sure the guys in South Ossetia are also happy to take whatever assistance is offered them at the moment.

I reckon the world could be a lot better a place if we'd make the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council (UK, US, France, Russia, China) normal members instead and lose the veto; but of course since that would have to be accomplished by passing a motion and these 5 have the veto....

Why is France on the council?

[crptcblade]

Why is France on the council?

Cuba was in the can when they were handing out seat assignments.

[FunkyDexter]

I was talking to my mate about this over the weekend and he bought up the usual, tired comparison to Nazi Germany. I usually hate that comparison because people reach for it whenever a nation starts puffing it's chest a bit (people used it against both Iraq and the US over the whole conflict thingy despite the situation being so obviously disparate) but over Russia the comparison really does hold some water.

You have a highly educated nation defeated in a war (albeit a cold one), subsequently treated badly by the rest of the developed world leading to growing corruption, economic crisis and a sense of nostalgia amongst the populace for a more totalitarian but globally influential past. A right wing nationalist takes charge on the promise of making the nation great again, usurps the democratic process to retain power and starts using an increasingly heavy handed aproach to recover it's former territories. Is any of this sounding familiar?

I'm not convinced the situation is the same and I'm not convinced we're going to see WW3 quite yet but the backdrop is eerily similar.

[InvisibleDuncan]

Personally, I feel a little sorry for Russia over this one, as the country that was initially in the wrong here was Georgia. Their shelling of Tskhinvali, which kicked off the whole military side of the issue just hours after Georgia signed up to a peace agreement with South Osettia, apparently cost 1,400 civilian lives. The Osettian authorities asked the Russians for help, and the Russians (who had quite probably been hoping the Georgians would do something like this) came rolling in. After squashing Georgian forces in South Osettia, the Russians kept going in order to prevent the possibility of a counter-attack from military bases outside the region.

Quite honestly, I'm not too sure what anyone would have expected the Russians to do here. When you consider that we've gone into Kosovo and Kuwait under similar pretexts, it seems a little hypocritical that we're upset at the Russians moving to keep a lid on a conflict like this right on their doorstep. It also seems strange that we're not too concerned that the Georgians started shelling civilians, but are aghast that Russian troops started shooting at opposing soldiers. I wonder whether it's because Saakashvili is urbane and English-speaking, whereas Putin and Medvedev fit the stereotype of suspicious-looking foreigners who talk funny...

[capsulecorpjx]

Personally, I feel a little sorry for Russia over this one, as the country that was initially in the wrong here was Georgia. Their shelling of Tskhinvali, which kicked off the whole military side of the issue just hours after Georgia signed up to a peace agreement with South Osettia, apparently cost 1,400 civilian lives. The Osettian authorities asked the Russians for help, and the Russians (who had quite probably been hoping the Georgians would do something like this) came rolling in. After squashing Georgian forces in South Osettia, the Russians kept going in order to prevent the possibility of a counter-attack from military bases outside the region.

Quite honestly, I'm not too sure what anyone would have expected the Russians to do here. When you consider that we've gone into Kosovo and Kuwait under similar pretexts, it seems a little hypocritical that we're upset at the Russians moving to keep a lid on a conflict like this right on their doorstep. It also seems strange that we're not too concerned that the Georgians started shelling civilians, but are aghast that Russian troops started shooting at opposing soldiers. I wonder whether it's because Saakashvili is urbane and English-speaking, whereas Putin and Medvedev fit the stereotype of suspicious-looking foreigners who talk funny...

I agree. Add to the fact that the Georgians started on the day of the Olympics, and that PM Putin was away. I think that added more injury to insult, especially with the implication that the Georgians think the President Medelev is impotent with Putin away.

[Shaggy Hiker]

It sounds to me like the US media has left out several factors (and everybodies media has been spouting off in various ways since then) that make the Russian action look worse than it really was. I would say that the US response has been unwisely heavy handed in response (demanding more than they should).

This is a situation for a more nuanced position. We should be stating opposition to Russian military action, but not demanding any particular result. Leave it all on the table to start with, and work from there.

[Foxer]

Russia rocks!

For once.

[nemaroller]

We should be stating opposition to Russian military action, but not demanding any particular result.

"Also in Poti, Russian soldiers commandeered four Humvees that had been used in U.S.-Georgian military exercises and were destined to be shipped back to the United States.The Pentagon said it was looking into the theft. Georgian Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia said Russian forces seized the vehicles. "
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ory?id=5607746

Stealing foreign military hardware is pretty much is act of war - to hell with being passive and diplomatic. You need to get in their face and stare them down.

[Foxer]

I'm sure they were going to give them back when they were done.

[Shaggy Hiker]

"Also in Poti, Russian soldiers commandeered four Humvees that had been used in U.S.-Georgian military exercises and were destined to be shipped back to the United States.The Pentagon said it was looking into the theft. Georgian Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia said Russian forces seized the vehicles. "
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ory?id=5607746

Stealing foreign military hardware is pretty much is act of war - to hell with being passive and diplomatic. You need to get in their face and stare them down.

There have been US advisors working with the Georgian military. It is possible that the Russians have taken your advice.

How long do you stare them down? Do we go to war with Russia over who gets posession of South Ossetia, considering that the South Ossetians side with the Russians more than the Georgians? The history of brinksmanship is mixed at best. Sometimes it works...sometimes it doesn't. What is the most that we can win by this? What is the most that we can lose?

Since there is virtually nothing tangible that we can win, other than allowing a people to be oppressed by the the greater of two evils in their own view, and we stand to lose considerably, our position should be one that leaves a door open. Making unconditional demands means that we get to either meekly back down, or go to a war we can't afford over a postage stamp country that doesn't want us. We should have condemned the attack and gone to diplomacy. Instead, we have gotten too far out there with demands. The Russians won't meet them, and we won't go to war over them, which leaves us in a stupid position.

[FunkyDexter]

Seems like a mixed bag at the moment. Russia is pulling back from some parts but digging in in others.

The most worrying sentence in that article is : Meanwhile, Moscow says it is reviewing its co-operation with Nato.

Both sides seem happy to ride the brink on this one.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Russia has more to gain than we do, and will comply...somewhat and slowly.

[SurfDemon]

Stealing foreign military hardware is pretty much is act of war - to hell with being passive and diplomatic. You need to get in their face and stare them down.

What about all those Mig's that ended up in the US......

Is it really worth going to war over 4 second hand cars.....?

Of course, they might hand them back when they find that the Humvees "armour" is about as effective as a warm chocolate......

[SurfDemon]

Personally, I feel a little sorry for Russia over this one, as the country that was initially in the wrong here was Georgia....

Thanks ID for another informative post. I find it very hard to seive through all of the sensationalist news to get a simple breakdown of what actually happened in those first few hours. Your post fills in a lot of the blanks.

[Xanith]

Thanks ID for another informative post. I find it very hard to seive through all of the sensationalist news to get a simple breakdown of what actually happened in those first few hours. Your post fills in a lot of the blanks.

Unfortunately a lot of those blanks are just untrue. Like the supposed civilian death toll supposedly being at 1400, even Russian numbers now place that at around 133, while Human Rights Watch places the number at "dozens" rather than thousands.

There is a lot of contradictory stories and it is very hard to find out just what exactly happened. It's all a matter of who you want to believe really. For me Russia hasn't exactly had a great track record when it comes to rolling tanks into other countries...

X

[FunkyDexter]

...but then again, neither does the US or the UK. In fact, in the last 20 years I'd say ours is considerably worse.

I guess where you stand on this comes down to where you stand on South Ossetia's right to independence. If you believe they have that right then you've got to support the Russkies, really. If you believe in the sovereignty of Georgia superseding it's sub-states right to independence then you've got to back Nato. Mind you, then you get into the whole sticky question of why Georgia is an indepenent state itself.

If you believe Russia went in for the good of the South Ossetians, you're fooling yourself. But if you think Nato objected because they were concerned about the welfare of the Georgians, you're equally deluded.