Huckabee and Obama both huge winners in Iowa!

[Mark Gambo]

Well it seems that the two candidates from New York have failed miserably in Iowa. Ms Rodham finished third and Mr Ghouliani (Giuliani) finish second from last just ahead of Duncan Hunter. I guess "America's Mayor" will be focusing on New Hampshire.

Best line of the campiagn about Giuliani so far was made by Sen Biden on October 31, 2007:

“There’s only three things he (Giuliani) mentions in a sentence — a noun, a verb, and 9/11. There’s nothing else! There’s nothing else! And I mean this sincerely. He’s genuinely not qualified to be president.”

[Foxer]

Someone must explain this voting process to me one day.

[techgnome]

Foxer - heck, some of us have grown up with it, and we STILL don't get it either...

-tg

[szlamany]

Someone must explain this voting process to me one day.

This is very, very simple...

The republican party and the democratic party are choosing candidates that will run nationally next November.

Each state (we have 50) will independently gather those people registered to either party to select a candidate.

If you are registered "independent" you get no say in this process at this time (in most states anyway - I believe some have different rules about this).

If a candidate doesn't get the party nod they can choose to run independently - if they have the power and cash. Clinton certainly does.

Independents have never won the general election yet...

Obama won because Clinton is generally disliked - she is dislikable to say the least. She is old-school politics.

Huckabee won because religious supporters in Iowa backed him.

I'm sure there will be lots more analysis of these upset winners coming...

[nemaroller]

Eh... Huckabee won Iowa because he's Chuck Norris approved.

[SurfDemon]

Thanks for the quick explanation szlamany, but I have a question. What's to stop all the people who are really Republicans for registering as Democrats and voting in the worst candidate as the Democratic candidate (and of course visa-versa for the Democrats registering as Republicans)?

[Mark Gambo]

Thanks for the quick explanation szlamany, but I have a question. What's to stop all the people who are really Republicans for registering as Democrats and voting in the worst candidate as the Democratic candidate (and of course visa-versa for the Democrats registering as Republicans)?

Some people would rather push sharp sticks into thier eyes before registering for a party other than own.

[zaza]

The old "vote for the worst opponent" line has been going around for as long as we've had democracy. There isn't anything to stop you doing that, if that's what you really want to do with your vote, but you'd be sacrificing your ability to vote for your favoured candidate in your own party. Either way, you are going to have to leave the election of one of them to the winds of chance, so it might as well be the other guy and may the best man win.

I presume that you aren't allowed to register for both parties, or at least that a kneecapping awaits you if you do. Even in America.

[techgnome]

Thanks for the quick explanation szlamany, but I have a question. What's to stop all the people who are really Republicans for registering as Democrats and voting in the worst candidate as the Democratic candidate (and of course visa-versa for the Democrats registering as Republicans)?

Some states have laws against switching within a certain period before the voting... most don't.... the risk of switching parties to vote for the worst of the opponents is that your candidate then doesn't make the cut....

-tg

[Shaggy Hiker]

Ghouliani (I'd never heard that, it's pretty funny) wasn't running in Iowa, so his showing shouldn't be a surprise. Oddly, he isn't running in NH, either. He has taken on a very bizarre strategy of spending all his time on the big states in the big February primary date, and ignoring the first few. In theory, that would be sound because Iowa and NH don't have many delegates, so they don't have much clout later on. However, the early lead can mean lots more in donations and recognition, which makes that later primaries a bit better. If he wins the nomination, it would probably shake all heck out of the conventional system. First in the nation wouldn't matter so much after that. Won't happen, though.

ID Rs are currently trying to block their primaries to just those registered as Republicans. Frankly, in this state, which is the reddest of the red, I don't know why. Last time around we elected the most unsavory character in congress (no, not Larry Craig), a guy who even his own party detested. The reason was simply that he was the farthest right of any of the major candidates. What impact did crossover voters have, make it a close race? Maybe we would have elected one of the lunatic fringe candidates without the crossover voters. Hard to say.

[Mark Gambo]

Ghouliani (I'd never heard that, it's pretty funny) . . .

Actually the Socialists coined the term.




Here are some of my favorite Ghouliani pictures:

“There’s only three things he (Giuliani) mentions in a sentence — a noun, a verb, and 9/11. There’s nothing else! There’s nothing else! And I mean this sincerely. He’s genuinely not qualified to be president.”

[szlamany]

Keep in mind that there is a Vice President that gets elected as well.

So being number two or three might just get you that position - which to a new comer like Obama - might be a really good way to get "presidential experience" for a future election.

Huckabee has absolutely no money for this whole process - so his win in Iowa might mean nothing in the states where the "so called" big candidates are pouring dollars into adverts.

And we all aren't bible belt states like Iowa.

Guiliani did incredible things in New York city - I remember the pre-Guiliani days well...

btw - I'm still insulted that Hillary came to New York to be a Senator - what right did she have to come to my backyard

[Mark Gambo]

. . . Guiliani did incredible things in New York city - I remember the pre-Guiliani days well . . .

Here is a video of one of his greatest accomplishments

[Mark Gambo]

Rudy always seem to have the answers

[Mark Gambo]

Rudy is very compassionate human being

[System_Error]

Someone must explain this voting process to me one day.

It's weeding out the turds or something.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Keep in mind that there is a Vice President that gets elected as well.

So being number two or three might just get you that position

I've heard even political pundits say this. So here's a trivia question: When was the last time any leading candidate was selected as the running mate by a nominee? Hasn't happened in my lifetime, and I'm far from the youngest on this forum. So is this really a realistic strategy for anybody to consider?

[szlamany]

Interesting question...

But the playing field has been changing - hasn't it?

For instance - Obama and Edwards team up to bash Clinton. They avoid bashing each other since they are trying to win the same people into their own camps - those that are unsure of their support for Clinton.

So even though you could say that Obama and Edwards are running for the same spot in the primaries - they are really running against Clinton.

As a strategy - if Obama wins 50% of the primary states and Edwards the other 50% - for instance - then there is a good reason for them to team up in an attempt to topple the Republicans in the national election.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I agree that there is an obvious reason for top candidates to team up. I believe that's why people keep mentioning the idea of "running for the number 2 spot." However, I don't think that has actually happened for decades. Perhaps there is too much bitterness between the front runners by the convention for them to mend fences.

Thinking as far back as Carter, I can't remember anybody picking another front runner as a running mate. I'd say that was true of Nixon and Kennedy, too, though I was not exactly aware for either of those (not even born for Kennedy).

[Shaggy Hiker]

There's another oddity to consider. Is there anything (other than reason) saying that Hillary couldn't choose Bill as a running mate? It would be a pretty bad move, but is it legal? Can someone who has had the top job for two terms run for Veep?

[Mark Gambo]

There's another oddity to consider. Is there anything (other than reason) saying that Hillary couldn't choose Bill as a running mate? It would be a pretty bad move, but is it legal? Can someone who has had the top job for two terms run for Veep?

No Hillary can't select Bill as her VP on two grounds, first the President and the Vice President must reside in different states. Remember Dick Cheney flew back to Wyoming to re-establish his residency there before he was anounced the George Bush's running mate. Secondly, he couldn't serve as President if Hillary was unable to serve due to the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution. Also I think the 12th Amendment prohibits Bill from serving again.

[System_Error]

So what happens if Hillary loses NH?

[szlamany]

NH allows independents to vote in the primary - you've got all the candidates pouring cash into adverts in attempts to get those indep's.

If Hillary loses NH there is still Super Tuesday - Feb 5th - when most states are holding primaries. No one in the top 3 or so will drop out prior to Feb 5th...

[zaza]

Some states have laws against switching within a certain period before the voting... most don't.... the risk of switching parties to vote for the worst of the opponents is that your candidate then doesn't make the cut....

-tg

According to Gerard Baker in The Times, lots of Republicans did cross the lines to vote for Obama. And will then cross back to vote in their own party.

[szlamany]

According to Gerard Baker in The Times, lots of Republicans did cross the lines to vote for Obama. And will then cross back to vote in their own party.

Interesting article - but he spoke out of both sides of his mouth...

These reliable Republicans were going to the state caucuses all right. But they were not going to be voting for members of their own party. They were going to vote for a Democrat — Barack Obama.

followed by

Most Republicans did, of course, still vote in their own party’s caucus in Iowa. And they delivered a blow to a former front-runner, Mitt Romney. Mike Huckabee’s big win over Mr Romney was in some ways even more impressive, if less symbolic, than Mr Obama’s.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I'm sure there are crossover voters, I just don't think they really matter as deliberate spoilers. What matters is the crossover voters who normally vote one party, but decide to vote for another party because they don't like their normal party options. When you get some of that, then generally something is going on.