Holy Krap

[MasterBlaster]

The biatch is a CAT 5 now.

[mendhak]

I'm using a CAT 6 crosswire myself, at the moment.

[MasterBlaster]

I'm using a CAT 6 crosswire myself, at the moment.

I hope you're above sea level.

[Valleysboy1978]

It still amazes me that people will stay at home. If they didn't know before what a category 5 was they do now thanks to Katrina. WHY HAVEN'T THEY MOVED!?!

This thing is stronger than Katrina and is likely to get stronger whilst still over water, GET OUTTA THERE!!!!

[yrwyddfa]

This is not good news at all; I heard it last night.

Valleys: you are quite correct. Landfall is expected to be some time out, still. So people do still have a little bit of time to get out. Landfall is expected around 7am (local time) which is 1pm BST on Saturday. Landfall 'ground zero' is expected to be at Corpus Christi.

CAT5 records are pretty difficult to beat; but this beast may well be heading into the record books - I just hope it's not for fatalities.

Most people understand how dangerous a CAT5 is - especially after Katrina - but I think a lot of people haven't realised how bad this particular one is.

The Labor day hurricane which struck the Florida Keys in 1935 recorded the lowest pressure reading ever recorded in the United States. The reading was 892hPa (or mb if you prefer it) Gilbert was next, btw, with a pressure reading of 888.

This monster has already dropped in pressure (at the centre) to 898, and probable deepening is expected in the next 12 hours. Convection from the Gulf seas is expected to be pretty intense well into October (yes! there are more on the way - they are expecting to run out of names,this year) so intensification is likely to occur too. Whether such intensification fizzles out before landfall is another issue

So as it stands now: this is the third deepest hurricane ever to come close to America. It's potential is to be the number one deepest. Deepening (lowereing of barometric pressure is normal, but not always, associated with intensification)

This is not good news.

As Valley put it: if you're there now, you should pack up and leave. The Corpus Christi estimate probably has an error rate of around 100km. Look at a map. Are you in the error margin?

If you are then pack your bags, and move. Listen to the authorities: from what I can tell - they've pretty much got it right this time.

Please, get out.

[yrwyddfa]

My apologies: 897mb has now been recorded by the brave souls who fly airplanes into these things.

[edit]deleted - covered by below[/edit]

[yrwyddfa]

Advisory

...Potentially catastrophic category five Rita moving
west-northwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico...
At 4 am CDT...0900z...the Hurricane Watch is extended eastward along
the Louisiana coast to Intracoastal City. A Hurricane Watch is now
in effect for the Gulf of Mexico coast from Port Mansfield Texas to
Intracoastal City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Hurricane Watch area later today.

At 4 am CDT...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of
the Mississippi River. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area during
the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect on either side of the
Hurricane Watch area... from east of Cameron to Morgan City
Louisiana...and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeastern coast
of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of potentially catastrophic Hurricane Rita.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 24.9 north...longitude 88.0 west or about 515 miles...
830 km...southeast of Galveston Texas and about 615 miles... 990
km...east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with
higher gusts. This makes Rita a potentially catastrophic category
five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reports by the
hurricane hunter is 897 mb...26.49 inches. This means Rita is the
third most intense hurricane in terms of pressure in the Atlantic
Basin.

Tides are currently running near normal along the Mississippi and
Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those
areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be accompanied by large
waves over the next 24 hours... and residents there could
experience some coastal flooding.
Heavy rains associated with Rita are forecast to begin to affect the
western and central Gulf of Mexico coastal areas Thursday night
into Friday. Rita is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches from the central Texas coast to southwestern Louisiana.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible elsewhere across
southern Louisiana...including the New Orleans metropolitan area.
After Rita moves inland...total rain accumulations of 5 to 10
inches will be possible over eastern Texas... and central and
eastern Oklahoma during Saturday and Sunday.

Repeating the 4 am CDT position...24.9 N... 88.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...175 mph. Minimum central pressure... 897 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 am CDT.

If where you live is mentioned in this then what are you still doing sitting in front of a computer?

[yrwyddfa]

Out of interest Accuweather seem to have the best forecasts for this, so far (ie they've been right so far (for the last two weeks))

[Valleysboy1978]

I believe the next ones will be STAN, TAMMY and VINCE
After this they will be using the Greek alphabet (Alpha, Beta etc) for the first time in history, which shows that this season has had far more hurricanes than usual.

[yrwyddfa]

[deleted]because it was stoopid[/deleted]

[Sgt-Peppa]

I believe the next ones will be STAN, TAMMY and VINCE
After this they will be using the Greek alphabet (Alpha, Beta etc) for the first time in history, which shows that this season has had far more hurricanes than usual.

If I recall correctly theres is one more left that would be called
Wilma
but I am not totally sure.

[Valleysboy1978]

Ah yes, forgot about that one
Cheers for the correction

[Sgt-Peppa]

Lets just hope we dont need all those names anymore!

[Valleysboy1978]

We will. It is only going to get worse because of global warming. It is certainly no coincedence that hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico are getting stronger and more frequent

[yrwyddfa]

We will. It is only going to get worse because of global warming.

I'd like to see the evidence that shows that.

As far as I can find Hurricanes run on a variety of cycles, the most obvious being the 40 year one.

I suspect the rumour that this is down to global warming is by anti-american media quacks. (it's a very convenient story if Bush pulls out of Kyoto, and then a 'feature' of global warming destroys the far south of his country)

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/New...109205219.html

[Valleysboy1978]

I must be honest I don't understand it but it's something to do with pressure, temperature and all that

[yrwyddfa]

I must be honest I don't understand it but it's something to do with pressure, temperature and all that

There is no evidence, nor proof, that increased hurricane activity is due to global warming.

There is some evidence, and a modicom of proof that increased hurricane activity is due to natural cycles.

[Valleysboy1978]

But why does it cycle?

[yrwyddfa]

It's not fully understood.

I think that the people studying this are at the observational stage. ie they've found a statistical significance (presuming chi-squared?) in certain time periods and hurricane activity (whether strength, or frequency)

I think that the road they're driven up is something to do with the speed of the thermohaline currents. If they speed up then the hurricane activity increases if they slow down then hurricane activity decreases.

If this is the case, then there is a huge problem for global warming as the prediction for global warming is that the currents will slow down as the earth warms: which means less hurricanes: which doesn't fit with what we're currently observing.

The theory that increased hurricane activity is linked to global warming is because the SST (sea surface temps) should warm with the atmosphere (it's actually much more symbiotic than that)

The only problem with that is that there is negligent global warming occuring either side of the equator (I think, I read somewhere?? - the effects are seen at greater latitudes) and the southern hemisphere is cooling (antartica is gaining ice, whilst greenland is losing it)

[Valleysboy1978]

Hopefully it could also lead to better predictions too?

[yrwyddfa]

Looks like an ERC (eye replacement cycle) is happening as the hurricane turns NNW quicker than predicted.

This should result in a weakening of the hurricane (perhaps a downgrade to CAT4) and hopefully, because the westerly waters of the gulf are shallow, and not so warm, there might not be enough energy to pep her back into a CAT5.

CAT4 still kills lots of people, though. Katrina was a CAT4 when she landed.

[Valleysboy1978]

At least the majority are leaving, unlike New Orleans. Katrina will be the more devistating in body count, Rita will be the most financially devastating if it hits Houston

[Shaggy Hiker]

Why stop at Wilma?

We could supply Xanith and Yrwyddfa for the next two. Actually, there are plenty of Y names out there, though there are only two X names that I can think of (Xanith and Xerxes). Of course, we could call one Xerox, but that would just be a copycat storm.

[Valleysboy1978]

Can you imagine trying to teach everyone how to pronounce "Yr Ywddfa"? It was hard enough on here!
As for Y, I agree, there are plenty of names beginning with Y

[yrwyddfa]

I'm sure there was a joke about 'wind' in there. Didn't know if you'd missed it . . .

[yrwyddfa]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 221455
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY
FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING
SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA
TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN
TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING.

Looks like it's veered further north than originally expected, and the strength is weakening - but still incredibly dangerous!

[Shaggy Hiker]

Give it time. It might build again, but if it hits NO, even lightly, that city is going under.....again! The levies can't take it.

[yrwyddfa]

Yeah: it might build again. But fortunately (sort of) the conditions (especially the modified upper layer shear) are not condusive to strongly building again.

Nevertheless, this is still going to be a mess when it hits land

[MasterBlaster]

Give it time. It might build again, but if it hits NO, even lightly, that city is going under.....again! The levies can't take it.

NO will probably still get a bunch of rain and high winds weather the storm smacks it directly or not. Whadda mess. It's all China, Russia and Japans fault

http://www.weatherwars.info/

So in early 1990, the weather engineering operations over North America were assumed from the FSB/KGB by the Yakuza/Aum Shinrikyo teams, and operations continued with the Yakuza's leased giant scalar interferometers. The weather engineering against the United States continues today under the rogue Japanese teams on site in Russia, with direct FSB/KGB supervision.

In 2004 we have entered the 2-year "final preparation phase". These operations have been intensified and will continue to be intense, wreaking great economic damage. Hurricanes Charlie, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, etc. have been no exception to the Yakuza weather engineering, which included directly influencing and controlling each hurricane's power and behavior, as well as directing its course and speed so as to choose its targeting path. Indeed, Ivan did a 180 degree turn, and Jeanne did a 360 degree loop before reaching Florida, demonstrating the degree of control available.

Meteorologists do recognize periods of increased or decreased hurricane activity for various reasons, but they do not consider deliberate human induction of hurricanes or human control over their direction, power, and progress.

Indeed, in latter March of 2004, Hurricane Catarina -- the first-ever recorded hurricane in the South Atlantic--formed and came ashore in Brazil on March 28 with 90 mph winds, doing substantial damage. So while the conventional wisdom is that hurricanes cannot form (naturally) in the South Atlantic; this one did and "broke all the records". It appears to have been a "deliberate probe" by the Yakuza: Produce and drive ashore a hurricane where the textbooks state one is impossible, to test whether Western governments and scientists recognize the artificial weather engineering . The answer, of course, is that -- as expected -- the West did not recognize its importance, or that it was a deliberate "stimulus." Western meteorologists and governments simply shrugged off Hurricane Catarina as an interesting little phenomenon but of no great concern.

[yrwyddfa]

Whoooo baby: where did you get that from. It's quite frightening.

[yrwyddfa]

Just reread it.

Sorry: it's rubbish : especially after I followed the link . . . .

[MasterBlaster]

Just reread it.

Sorry: it's rubbish : especially after I followed the link . . . .

Yeah, they had that nutcase on a local radio show here yesterday. I figured I check the site out for a laugh. On a lighter note:

Port Lavaca, Texas -- Mayor Alan Tharling of Port Lavaca, a city on the Texas coast between Houston and Corpus Christi, is taking creative measures to make citizens take the threat of Hurricane Rita seriously.
Tharling says that the 1,000 or so die-hards who refuse to evacuate are being given permanent markers and asked to write their Social Security number, next of kin and a phone number on their arm or across their abdomen — so that returning officials can identify their bodies.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Can you believe people are intending to ride it out? If it actually declines to a 3 or lower, or moves north, those people will NEVER consider evacuating. I've been in the remnants of Hugo (dodging falling trees, no less), and I'd like to see a good one from the inside, but I sure wouldn't want to be around the coast for a storm surge, and I'd make darn sure that anything important was out of the way.

After all, if I didn't lose my life, I sure wouldn't want to lose my computers.

[FunkyDexter]

It still amazes me that people will stay at home.

Me too, although a user on another forum I visit has family in Houston and they aren't leaving. The traffic leaving the city reached such a critical mass so quickly that they don't think they could get out anyway. Basically, they've taken the position that they can't avoid it anyway so they might as well face it somewhere solid than in a car stranded on a freeway. Not a pleasant choice to have to make. What sounded even worse was that they'd gone and found an organised shelter only to discover that nobody had thought to stock it with any food!

There is no evidence, nor proof, that increased hurricane activity is due to global warming.

I don't know much about it myself but I did hear an 'expert' talking on Radio 4. He drew the analogy that global warming has 'loaded the dice' by making it more likely for hurricanes etc. but that you couldn't look at a given hurricane and say 'that was caused by global warming'.

[Valleysboy1978]

I suppose I can understand the reasoning, but I would not have waited so late. I would have left at the first indication it was going to hit. No food at an organised shelter? Why does that not surprise me.
I apologise to any fellow yanks here, but why is it so hard to organise some of this stuff? You organise a shelter, you stock up on water, food, clothing, bedding, toiletries etc. Is it that hard to think about!?!

[FunkyDexter]

but why is it so hard to organise some of this stuff?

To be fair I get the impression this was an aberration but he didn't give many details (and needless to say I didn't think it my place to pry). I imagine the preparations have generally been much better. Especially in the wake of Katrina.

[Valleysboy1978]

Only because the government has taken control of the situation. Last time they shrugged their shoulders and said "Not our problem"

[MasterBlaster]

well, there goes NO again.

Dozens of blocks in the Ninth Ward were under water as a waterfall at least 30 feet wide poured over and through a dike that had been used to patch breaks in the Industrial Canal levee. On the street that runs parallel to the canal, the water ran waist-deep and was rising fast.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,170202,00.html

[Shaggy Hiker]

I suppose I can understand the reasoning, but I would not have waited so late. I would have left at the first indication it was going to hit.

Why start then? I'm going to play it safe and evacuate Boise, now.

Somebody was talking about being caught on the highway by the storm. I got thinking about it. As long as you are not moving, you certainly won't be blown away by the storm if you are in a car. There isn't a car out there that can't take winds of that speed. Therefore, the only things you have to worry about in a car would be flooding and flying things like windows, coconuts, Dutchmen, nuns, and the like. Otherwise, a car would be a particularly safe place to ride out the storm.

[Shaggy Hiker]

well, there goes NO again.



http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,170202,00.html

I don't see why people are so upset, it is only 1% more humid than it was before.