a Probability Teaser

[david185000]

Nah man, that wouldnt make sense. If you throw the die 1 hundred times, there isnt a 1% chance of getting a 97.

Those odds are just too small for something like this.

[opus]

Look at it from the other way, how much is the probability the miss the result in each throw. For the first it is 0.99, to miss it in the fist two throws 0.99*0.99 and so forth. for all the throws it 0.99^100 which is 0.36603234....
Subtrct that from 1 and you have the probabiltiy to have at least one 97 in your hundred throws.

The mistake sciguyryan made was the number of all possible results is 100^100 and the number of wanted results is more than 100. For example in two throws you can have a 97 in the first or the second and in both throws. Add them all up for the hundred throws and you will get the result from above.

[opus]

Hey The Duck, that'S only correct if you look at each throw seperatly. He searched for the total prob over all throws.

[sciguyryan]

Look at it from the other way, how much is the probability the miss the result in each throw. For the first it is 0.99, to miss it in the fist two throws 0.99*0.99 and so forth. for all the throws it 0.99^100 which is 0.36603234....
Subtrct that from 1 and you have the probabiltiy to have at least one 97 in your hundred throws.

The mistake sciguyryan made was the number of all possible results is 100^100 and the number of wanted results is more than 100. For example in two throws you can have a 97 in the first or the second and in both throws. Add them all up for the hundred throws and you will get the result from above.

Right, I see the mistake now

Cheers,

RyanJ