Australia, yes. New Zealand, no. Australia comes out at something like 1.8 standard deviations above the mean, not that big of a deal.

New Zealand is certainly an outlier. They have an almost 200000 people/1 death ratio. Not quite as large as China's, but right up there.

My reason for treating China and New Zealand differently is that this started in China, spread in China long before it was identified anywhere else, and New Zealand has huge advantages as far as isolating and quarantining incomers, due to it being a small island nation with limited population; and other factors (political and otherwise). In other words, its good numbers are not at all implausible for a whole host of reasons. I could add it in and then maybe China is only 18 standard deviations off the mean, for what its worth.


Assume for a second that China's reported numbers are accurate. That, other than a handful of isolated infections over the course of the last 8+ months or so, the Covid outbreak is no more.

Then certainly, by now, China would be completely back to normal domestically. Maybe not allowing entry from foreign countries yet (and for good reason), but everyone is back to work, all industry is back to full production, streets and sidewalks are all packed just like they would have been in May of 2019. Is that the case? I leave that up to the reader to try to find out.