Yup, as I said the above analysis assumed no other sources of cost (or profit) besides the blade breaking (or the log selling), where you also completely believe the foreman's estimate (and where you believe the problem statement saying the customer will indeed buy the log if it's sawed in half). There are a zillion complications you could throw in, including the ones either of us has mentioned.

More realism would be added by giving each eventuality a probability distribution. Eventually, you'd develop a confidence interval--"there's a 97.3% chance you'll make money from sawing the log", for instance, though even that interval should have error bars ideally, since the probability distributions almost certainly aren't known exactly. In the end, statistics is a best guess. Maybe that's why I've never liked it terribly much.... Of course, statistics generates better guesses than humans naturally do, most of the time, wherein lies its value.