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Thread: probability of a run in pinochle

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    Oct 2009
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    probability of a run in pinochle

    i'd like to know the probability of attaining a run, i.e., an Ace, Ten, King, Queen, & Jack in the same suit from a deck of 48 cards in a single pinochle deck which consists of eight each of aces, tens, kings, queens, jacks and nines.
    i thought the factors might be as follows:

    40/48 -> any card but a nine
    8/47 -> if 1st card is 10 of clubs, there are eight desirable clubs left, i.e., AC,KC,QC,JC (2 of each)
    6/46 -> 6 desirable clubs left
    4/45 -> 4 desirable clubs left
    2/44 -> 2 clubs left
    but i don't care what order the cards are received in, so i believe there would be 5! ways of arranging the five cards...which led me to think of the following probability:

    40/48*8/47*6/46*4/45*2/44*5! ~= .00897

    but i'm not confident with that result and think it should be better than that, maybe about 2 or 3 % instead of less than 1%.

    btw, i don't care what the other cards are and there are 11 cards dealt to each player (4 players) and four cards in the "kitty"

    any help would be greatly appreciated

    robert
    Last edited by rjay; Oct 27th, 2009 at 09:49 PM.

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