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Jul 23rd, 2007, 11:21 AM
#1
Thread Starter
New Member
Bookmakers betting book maths question
This question relates to some coding we are doing. I would be really grateful if some of you maths experts can come up with a formula for the following:
The question is this: In a horse race you might have six runners with odds like this:
Horse A - odds of 1/2 (that is decimal odds of 1.5)
Horse B - odds of 2/1 (decimal odds of 3)
Horse C - odds of 20/1 (decimal odds of 21)
Horse D - odds of 20/1 (decimal odds of 21)
Horse E - odds of 20/1 (decimal odds of 21)
Horse F - odds of 20/1 (decimal odds of 21)
Now a bookie will see the percentage of this book:
Horse A - equates to 66.67% (that is 100/decimal odds i.e: 100/1.5 = 66.67)
Horse B - equates to 33.33% (that is 100/3 = 33.33)
Horse C - equates to 4.76% (that is 100/21 = 4.76)
Horse D - equates to 4.76%
Horse E - equates to 4.76%
Horse F - equates to 4.76%
The total book percentage is 119.04%.
A bookmaker then knows his "overround" is 19% and that is his theoretical profit margin or edge.
Now the question I have is, if Horse A is a non-runner then by what amount do you reduce the odds of the other runners to get back to a 119% book.
Unfortunately it is not as simple as just reducing each of their odds by 66.67%. That would end up with a book percentage of around 109%.
There must be a basic formula to apply that will reduce each of the remaining runners odds to get back to 119%.
Please can someone help me? Many thanks.
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