Iran's financial woes

[kleinma]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/....ap/index.html

what do you guys think?

[Shaggy Hiker]

If the United States can "hold its breath" for a few years it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country, he said.

Or, Iranian leaders could use that age old solution to internal strife: Find a foreign enemy, and blame all your problems on them.

There's no reason to assume that Iran would meekly start begging from the US if they started falling on economic hard times. The leadership gains NOTHING from that. All they would get from that is:

1) Loss of support from the people who they've been teaching about the great satan for a few decades.
2) Loss of control of their economy because they'd be increasingly beholden to a fairly hostile country or countries.
3) No solution to their problems, because it would not be in the interest of any country they agreed with to ever actually get them going again.

The write of that article was pretty much an optimistic moron.

[rory]

france should invoke a revolution so they can get even more of their oil ..

[kleinma]

I don't think it was about Iran begging, but more about Iran's people questioning the need to spend the countries money on nuclear power development when the country is bankrupt.

Iran's president is already starting to feel pressure from his own citizens that he is taking them in a direction that the majority of its citizens DON'T want to go down. Also the fact that it would likely unite the country if they were to be bombed by another country.

[nemaroller]

I think I better fly out to Iran and collect that $20 bucks Ahmadinejad owes me.

[Shaggy Hiker]

It's when leaders start feeling pressure that they try for the bait and switch. Perhaps the people will change their minds, perhaps not. However, the last president, before Ahmadinnajacket, was disregarded because the president is not the real power in the Iranian governement. The same is true with ol' evening wear, the spiritual leader trumps the presidency, and has consistently worked to moderate the more radical views of the spokesman in chief. We ignored the last president as irrelevant, we should ignore this one, too. The power that guides Iran isn't that seat, and doesn't speak with that voice. If the president is feeling pressure, he will just be replaced. He's nothing but a visible, and very vocal, figurehead.

[Ex-FB]

Thanks for the excellent article. It doesn't explain why Iran is not investing in their oil production however.

It makes sense to argue that Iran needs nuclear power because their oil is running out or some other unavoidable situation. But it doesn't make sense to say that Iran needs nuclear power because thay aren't investing in their oil production capabilities.....

Unless they cannot afford to do both, so they are opting to go down the nuclear power route to cover their domestic power demands, which in turn means that more oil will be available to export in the future. Maybe they are simply taking the hit now, for a pay back in the future.

[kleinma]

Thanks for the excellent article. It doesn't explain why Iran is not investing in their oil production however.

It makes sense to argue that Iran needs nuclear power because their oil is running out or some other unavoidable situation. But it doesn't make sense to say that Iran needs nuclear power because thay aren't investing in their oil production capabilities.....

Unless they cannot afford to do both, so they are opting to go down the nuclear power route to cover their domestic power demands, which in turn means that more oil will be available to export in the future. Maybe they are simply taking the hit now, for a pay back in the future.

Well ya can't make a bomb out of oil like you can out of nuclear material can you

[Ex-FB]

True! I am still under no doubt that they are pursuing the bomb (for reasons I have expounded before), and maybe this is a good alround option. Let's look at the options (possibly) facing them

1) Continue to invest in current oil Production.
Pros: Get plenty of money now
Cons: No way to increase revenue in the future
Oil will eventually run out

2) Build Nuclear Power Plants now
Pros: Able to increase oil revenues in the future (by selling oil supplies that would normally go to domestic power market)
Get "the bomb" for a bit of MAD security.

Cons: Can't afford to invest in current oil production, so short term financial hardship.


Maybe it does make sense what they are doing..... can't say I like it though.

[kleinma]

another CON to number 2 is the possibility of military action taken against them.

It really the last thing both Iran and the US, (or the rest of the world for that matter) need at this point.

[Ex-FB]

To be honest, I think that that Con also exists under number 1. Let's face it, they were named by Bush as part of the "Axis of Evil", he's made no shortage of rhetoric about them being the enemy etc. He's started a couple of wars already, it's a safe bet that he would be in Iran now if he hadn't got bogged down in Iraq. I don't see how the Iranians would consider themselves safe from attack if they didn't pursue nuclear energy. It's not like that's the only thing Bush has against them. Do you honestly believe that if Iran did everything it could to prove that it wasn't building nuclear weapons, that the US would not attack them? That Bush would forgive and forget and welcome them into the world community with open arms?

As stated before. I suspect that at this stage they feel the must have the bomb if they are to survive as a nation and not become another occupied country.

[zaza]

As stated before. I suspect that at this stage they feel the must have the bomb if they are to survive as a nation and not become another occupied country.

And as stated before, the Iranians are not stupid and they know that with the bogging down that is going on in Iraq and Afghanistan and the political feeling about these things in the West, there is no way they are going to get attacked at the moment. They are seizing the opportunity to make a political statement and acquire nuclear weapons at a time when the rest of the world is least able to do anything about it.