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Thread: Post election prediction

  1. #81
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by sapator View Post
    They can't cheat. They are rules and regulations and people doing, something...Unless Trump wins, then there are no rules and regulations and he cheated.
    You act as if that's not enough to make the election secure. If there are bad players involved then any system can be compromised. But, what else can be done? Do you have a better system?

    Keep in mind we had over 180million voters in 2020.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by dday9 View Post
    Can you turn this into a polls?
    1. Harris Wins Popular Vote and Electoral College
    2. Trump Wins Popular Vote and Electoral College
    3. Harris Wins Popular Vote and Trump Wins Electoral College
    4. Trump Wins Popular Vote and Harris Wins Electoral College


    If you can't, my vote is #3.

    Harris is ahead nationally in the polls by <2% and Trump is ahead <1% in all but one of the swing states. Consider that historically Trump overperforms in the polls comes election day, that is why I'm confident that he wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

    The betting markets more or less agree with betting odds of Trump at 58% and Harris at 40%.
    That would be in keeping with recent history as far as republicans and the popular vote goes. The last Republican president who also won the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004. Also, Trump never won the popular vote.
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

  3. #83
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    You act as if that's not enough to make the election secure. If there are bad players involved then any system can be compromised. But, what else can be done? Do you have a better system?

    Keep in mind we had over 180million voters in 2020.
    If you think that the vote is secure then I'm with you. I expect that to be held on whichever wins.
    Now Greece is a different story. Maths do not add here there is no way to get 100% more and loose 3/4 on mail vote plus the "justice" system did not accept recount on major cities. So will see in a few days and take it from there.
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  4. #84
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    But, what else can be done? Do you have a better system?
    I don't like our system, but if it were to be improved then the good model to look towards would be what we do with the TSA in airports.

    TSA uses facial recognition cameras along with ID scanners to verify the person coming through the checkpoint. Then on top of that, they regularly deploy decoys and can say that 9 out of 10 decoys trying to bypass the system get caught.

    Not sure how scalable this is considering only ~3million people fly per day, but there's also the fact that they would only be doing the first half of what the TSA does (the ID verification) whereas the last half (the security screening which is also the longest) wouldn't need to be done.

    The fact that we have come so far along with technology and we're basically doing the same thing we've been doing for the past 60 years (only pushing a button rather than pulling a lever) is just insane to me.

    But the conflict that our current system causes is incentive enough for both parties to keep it going as is. Hot button issues like this don't get resolved, they get exploited.
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Not sure how scalable this is considering only ~3million people fly per day, but there's also the fact that they would only be doing the first half of what the TSA does (the ID verification) whereas the last half (the security screening which is also the longest) wouldn't need to be done.
    No mail in voting? What about the very old, the disabled or anyone that can't drive?

    Not sure how scalable this is considering only ~3million people fly per day, but there's also the fact that they would only be doing the first half of what the TSA does (the ID verification) whereas the last half (the security screening which is also the longest) wouldn't need to be done.
    I think your right about the scalability being a problem. There's exponentially more voting sites than airports.

    The fact that we have come so far along with technology and we're basically doing the same thing we've been doing for the past 60 years (only pushing a button rather than pulling a lever) is just insane to me.
    My GUESS is before long you'll be able to vote from your phone.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    But, what else can be done? Do you have a better system?
    I love our system in Germany, but I'm sure Dems and maybe Reps would be slamming it left and right. Dems would hate it because valid proof of citizenship is needed on hand in order to vote. Reps might hate it because there is no electoral college, but needing an ID to prove citizenship in order to vote would even the playing field between both parties.

    One of the biggest problems in the states is that anyone can run for office with no experience in politics. In Germany that's not possible. Polticians in Germany start in their teens, and work their way up the ranks for years.
    Last edited by Peter Porter; Oct 19th, 2024 at 04:37 PM.

  7. #87

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by dday9 View Post
    I don't like our system, but if it were to be improved then the good model to look towards would be what we do with the TSA in airports.

    TSA uses facial recognition cameras along with ID scanners to verify the person coming through the checkpoint. Then on top of that, they regularly deploy decoys and can say that 9 out of 10 decoys trying to bypass the system get caught.

    Not sure how scalable this is considering only ~3million people fly per day, but there's also the fact that they would only be doing the first half of what the TSA does (the ID verification) whereas the last half (the security screening which is also the longest) wouldn't need to be done.

    The fact that we have come so far along with technology and we're basically doing the same thing we've been doing for the past 60 years (only pushing a button rather than pulling a lever) is just insane to me.

    But the conflict that our current system causes is incentive enough for both parties to keep it going as is. Hot button issues like this don't get resolved, they get exploited.
    We can't get past the electoral college let alone electronic voting becoming a reality. We do have the secure "Star" id and I just set up my secure government ID for social security. Meaning the mechanisms are in place but I can't see us voting that way soon. The republicans don't even want drop boxes and mail in voting. They would flip out if we tried to do anything more modern than that, anything that makes voting easier they try and stop.
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    Re: Post election prediction

    I love our system in Germany, but I'm sure Dems and maybe Reps would be slamming it left and right. Dems would hate it because valid proof of citizenship is needed on hand in order to vote. Reps might hate it because there is no electoral college, but needing an ID in order to vote would even the playing field between both parties.
    You already need an ID to register to vote. I don't seeing having to produce your ID when voting in person as making any significant difference but I don't see it as a big burden either.

    Before 2020, the majority of U.S. voters cast their ballots in-person at a polling location — usually on Election Day. In 2018, for example, more than 58% of voters in that election cast their ballots in-person on Election Day.

    Voter turnout for the 2022 elections was the 2nd highest for midterms since 2000
    Elections
    Voter turnout for the 2022 elections was the 2nd highest for midterms since 2000
    But in 2020, the most common method of casting a ballot was by mail. About 43% of voters voted this way in that election. According to the EAC, in-person voting on Election Day and early voting each comprised "about 30.5% of the population of voters," which was a first.

    "However, the COVID-19 pandemic that affected the 2020 general election appears to have had lasting effects on how voters cast their general election ballots," the agency's report reads.

    The agency found that 31.9% of voters who cast a ballot in 2022 did so by mail. That's compared to 25.6% of voters who voted by mail in the 2018 general election. According to the survey, almost half of all voters in 2022 voted in person on Election Day.

    The relative popularity of voting by mail in the U.S. has persisted despite the fact that various states — mostly Republican-led states -- have passed new restrictions on mail ballot programs since 2020.
    That's a bit of a long quote but I wanted to provide a full picture.

    I would expect in person voting to keep declining. Unless forced to vote in person.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    The republicans don't even want drop boxes and mail in voting.
    Just discovered we have mail in voting in Germany. Adult German's living abroad, with no residence in Germany can vote, as long as they were a German resident from birth up till they were 14 years old. If someone was born in Germany, but their family moved abroad when they were very young, then they have to register to vote for every election by mail through the municipality where they were last registered. All German citizens are automatically registered to vote at birth, but moving abroad at a young age (before 14) nixes that.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Porter View Post
    Just discovered we have mail in voting in Germany. Adult German's living abroad, with no residence in Germany can vote, as long as they were a German resident from birth up till they were 14 years old. If someone was born in Germany, but their family moved abroad when they were very young, then they have to register to vote for every election by mail through the municipality where they were last registered. All German citizens are automatically registered to vote at birth, but moving abroad at a young age (before 14) nixes that.
    Only adult German's living abroad can vote by mail?

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    We can't get past the electoral college let alone electronic voting becoming a reality. We do have the secure "Star" id and I just set up my secure government ID for social security. Meaning the mechanisms are in place but I can't see us voting that way soon. The republicans don't even want drop boxes and mail in voting. They would flip out if we tried to do anything more modern than that, anything that makes voting easier they try and stop.
    These things come and go. I think we'll get there.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    More getting off the sinking ship. This is far less about the candidates at the top than the fact of realignments underneath two old Party banners.

    These Democrats are 'breaking up' with Kamala Harris and 'flirting' with Trump, GOP strategist says



    A bit late though. Lots have already voted.

    They should have shat or got off the pot months ago, even before Biden was couped out of his spot by an illegal regime.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    I totally get where you’re coming from. The whole election process has been such a rollercoaster, especially with all the court challenges we’ve seen recently. It feels like no matter who wins, we’re in for a long and stressful ride, with both sides ready to fight tooth and nail. I remember how tense it was after the last election, and honestly, I’m not looking forward to another round of that. Just hoping whatever happens, it doesn’t turn into a total circus again.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    Only adult German's living abroad can vote by mail?
    Was running on fumes when I started that sentence with "adult".

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Porter View Post
    Was running on fumes when I started that sentence with "adult".
    What I was asking is are ANY other German citizens allowed to vote by mail or only those living abroad.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    What I was asking is are ANY other German citizens allowed to vote by mail or only those living abroad.
    I haven't read all the details. I'm guessing German citizens staying in hospitals could probably vote by mail. Anyone over 18 who is a German citizen could vote by mail, including immigrants who have German citizenship for a required time.

    Permanent residents who don't have German citizenship, but are married to Germans, can't vote.
    Last edited by Peter Porter; Oct 20th, 2024 at 02:40 PM.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Looking at the latest RCP aggregate, Harris has dropped from +2 to +0.9 which is abysmal for her chances.

    At +2 I was saying that Trump would win but lose the popular vote. If, come election day, it is as tight or tighter then I'd predict he wins the popular vote too.
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Napstore View Post
    I totally get where you’re coming from. The whole election process has been such a rollercoaster, especially with all the court challenges we’ve seen recently. It feels like no matter who wins, we’re in for a long and stressful ride, with both sides ready to fight tooth and nail. I remember how tense it was after the last election, and honestly, I’m not looking forward to another round of that. Just hoping whatever happens, it doesn’t turn into a total circus again.
    How can it not? The main player of all that chaos and his party are in the race again.
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

  19. #99

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    Re: Post election prediction

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...llion-dollars/

    I'd like to see a group really jump on that $100.00 referral and make it go viral. Musk can afford it. I'd sign up if was offered in my state.
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    Re: Post election prediction

    If it's actually a go and is illegal it must be stopped if not, continue.
    Of course if the government cut it will have deprived people a possible million per day. So it's a smart move either way it goes.
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...llion-dollars/

    I'd like to see a group really jump on that $100.00 referral and make it go viral. Musk can afford it. I'd sign up if was offered in my state.
    It feels like a pretty slimy move. Not directly buying votes but real close. It also implies that the first and second amendment are under attack. But that's pretty normal politics.

    I said earlier I thought Musk actively stumping for Trump could put him in the White House. That view hasn't changed.

    On a side note, have the rules limiting the size of contribution a person can make been changed?? I've noticed the last few elections there doesn't seem to be any limits.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    More getting off the sinking ship.
    Americans are waking up. It's about time.
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  23. #103

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    It feels like a pretty slimy move. Not directly buying votes but real close. It also implies that the first and second amendment are under attack. But that's pretty normal politics.

    I said earlier I thought Musk actively stumping for Trump could put him in the White House. That view hasn't changed.

    On a side note, have the rules limiting the size of contribution a person can make been changed?? I've noticed the last few elections there doesn't seem to be any limits.
    Without looking it up I think Political Action Committee's (PACs) don't have a limit. Also, I not sure how it is related but I think the Supreme Court ruled corporations can contribute like an individual. I think that really increased the level allowed.
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Well, I did a little Googling,

    https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-...bution-limits/

    But with a little creativity it looks like the amount one person can donate has no limit.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/16/g-s1-...merica-pac-fec

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    Well, I did a little Googling,

    https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-...bution-limits/

    But with a little creativity it looks like the amount one person can donate has no limit.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/16/g-s1-...merica-pac-fec
    Yep....Musk got creative:

    He was the sole donor to the political action committee he created, America PAC, a group that spent about $72 million to support Donald Trump's reelection bid between July and September, according to a new quarterly filing with the Federal Election Commission.
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  26. #106
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Well , donations. The evil moneytalks. Anyhow in Greece if you donate to a party you must keep it secret as it's sorta kinda illegal. I mean you kinda sorta go to jail as donations are equaled to bribes but any big, doner donor? How you write that? Anyhow none has done real time also Siemens was bribing Greek governments for years, when it was found out....Well people ended up in Germany instead of a prison. Good ol' Greece political traitors.
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  27. #107
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    Re: Post election prediction

    There is effectively nothing preventing straight up bribery in US elections, these days. Anybody can give any amount, anonymously or otherwise. What restrictions there are exist only as a fig leaf. Small donors don't need the anonymity, and large donors can bypass any reporting requirement by being selective.

    On the other hand, I'm not sure how you could prevent the situation in the US, at the moment. After all, you can buy an ad to say whatever you want (within the limits of decency laws, such as they are). You can pool money with friends to buy more ads. So if you can't team up with a candidate to support said candidate, that doesn't mean that you can't support them, just that you have to pretend to be independent. Frankly, we have yet to take that to the logical extreme, but we are working closer to it. That logical extreme is the case where the candidate is pretty nearly irrelevant to the campaign run for them.
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    There is effectively nothing preventing straight up bribery in US elections, these days. Anybody can give any amount, anonymously or otherwise. What restrictions there are exist only as a fig leaf. Small donors don't need the anonymity, and large donors can bypass any reporting requirement by being selective.

    On the other hand, I'm not sure how you could prevent the situation in the US, at the moment. After all, you can buy an ad to say whatever you want (within the limits of decency laws, such as they are). You can pool money with friends to buy more ads. So if you can't team up with a candidate to support said candidate, that doesn't mean that you can't support them, just that you have to pretend to be independent. Frankly, we have yet to take that to the logical extreme, but we are working closer to it. That logical extreme is the case where the candidate is pretty nearly irrelevant to the campaign run for them.
    And all we are talking about right now is the up front money, the real bucks are with the lobbyists once you are elected.

    In just a couple of weeks this nation will pick between two very different people and two very different paths for the nation and the world. I hope for the best and fear the worst.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Oct 21st, 2024 at 05:44 PM.
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    Re: Post election prediction

    That logical extreme is the case where the candidate is pretty nearly irrelevant to the campaign run for them.
    That sums up the Trump campaign, who would really want him to run the country? The party wants the power to rule, not to govern. I like the analogy, "If Trump was your grandfather, you would take the keys off him".
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    Re: Post election prediction

    You do remember the DNC doing a tag team swap out from Biden to Harris, WWE style right?

    We're also in this weird pickle where it became too obvious that Biden was too old and senile to run for president but at the same time he's still the active president. Does anyone genuinely think that he's doing any actual governance?
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by dday9 View Post
    You do remember the DNC doing a tag team swap out from Biden to Harris, WWE style right?

    We're also in this weird pickle where it became too obvious that Biden was too old and senile to run for president but at the same time he's still the active president. Does anyone genuinely think that he's doing any actual governance?
    I absolutely do...He is surrounded by a capable team and is available everyday. Pull the debate out of the equation and it wouldn't be a question. Plus, you could say the exact same thing about Trump. Was he running the country while he was trying to subvert our democracy, seems like those two goals contradict each other? Lets drag out Reagan and Nancy running the country at the end of his term for a blast from the past.

    "You do remember the DNC doing a tag team swap out from Biden to Harris, WWE style right?". I remember my elected delegates reacting to a situation that could have let Trump easily win. I agree with that 100%. By the way, whose family is running the RNC. The WWE's favorite president's kids.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Oct 22nd, 2024 at 09:32 AM.
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  32. #112
    Super Moderator dday9's Avatar
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    Re: Post election prediction

    I make one statement against your side and you jump to some wild assumptions/justifications. It's just too easy.
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by dday9 View Post
    I make one statement against your side and you jump to some wild assumptions/justifications. It's just too easy.
    I'd genuinely like to know what in my post you are calling "wild assumptions/justifications"? I'd appreciate a chance to respond.

    You posted:

    "You do remember the DNC doing a tag team swap out from Biden to Harris, WWE style right?
    We're also in this weird pickle where it became too obvious that Biden was too old and senile to run for president but at the same time he's still the active president. Does anyone genuinely think that he's doing any actual governance?"

    I posted:

    "I absolutely do...He is surrounded by a capable team and is available everyday. Pull the debate out of the equation and it wouldn't be a question. Plus, you could say the exact same thing about Trump. Was he running the country while he was trying to subvert our democracy, seems like those two goals contradict each other? Lets drag out Reagan and Nancy running the country at the end of his term for a blast from the past.

    "You do remember the DNC doing a tag team swap out from Biden to Harris, WWE style right?". I remember my elected delegates reacting to a situation that could have let Trump easily win. I agree with that 100%. By the way, whose family is running the RNC. The WWE's favorite president's kids."

    I see very little difference in the tone or approach of either post.

    Edit: It crossed my mind you were just trolling me. If so, touché.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Oct 23rd, 2024 at 10:46 AM.
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  34. #114
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    Re: Post election prediction

    It seems pretty clear that some people are comfortable having the strings pulled by an unelected Politburo behind the scenes when our system was set up to prevent just that. I guess that's why having a bobblehead in the hot seat doesn't bother them, they don't intend to let the Executive execute policy anyway.

    Thankfully the nightmare would appear to be almost over.

    Here in relevant States we're seeing bizarre ads trotting out nothing but character assassination since they have no popular policy positions anyone trusts them on. I've seen several nearly identical ads with different talking heads giving negative testimonials. From the look of these old bags they must be filming at a Birkenstocks & Army Boots Outlet Mall somewhere.

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    Re: Post election prediction

    If I'm not mistaken the previous bets where somewhere to 53-57 , now it's over 60.
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/bet...2024/president

    I was told that it does not mean anything but the "anything" seems to open the gap more and more.
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    πλάγχθη, ἐπεὶ Τροίης ἱερὸν πτολίεθρον ἔπερσεν·

  36. #116

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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    It seems pretty clear that some people are comfortable having the strings pulled by an unelected Politburo behind the scenes when our system was set up to prevent just that. I guess that's why having a bobblehead in the hot seat doesn't bother them, they don't intend to let the Executive execute policy anyway.

    Thankfully the nightmare would appear to be almost over.

    Here in relevant States we're seeing bizarre ads trotting out nothing but character assassination since they have no popular policy positions anyone trusts them on. I've seen several nearly identical ads with different talking heads giving negative testimonials. From the look of these old bags they must be filming at a Birkenstocks & Army Boots Outlet Mall somewhere.
    It is getting nasty and personal on the campaign trail. Maybe not for the same reasons you give though.
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

  37. #117
    PowerPoster dilettante's Avatar
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    It is getting nasty and personal on the campaign trail. Maybe not for the same reasons you give though.
    I doubt anyone is even paying attention to that drivel.

    Just watch TYT's nightly meltdowns. Hilarious that they don't accept Harris' natural constituency now that it's out in the open: corporate neocons. It has to be a struggle to drag themselves into work these days for them.

    Now there's the idea she'll name Liz Cheney as Secretary of Defense! She'd better get on top of that and squash it in no uncertain terms. Cenk was practically coughing up blood.

    Of course MSNBC can hardly get out of its own way pouring forth praise for Cheney.

  38. #118
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    Re: Post election prediction

    It appears to me that the vast majority of people have made their choice. It's basically a tie. So the winner will be from the party that does the best job of getting their supporters to actually vote.

  39. #119
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    Re: Post election prediction

    It's 60-40 according to betting companies but I don't really grasp the electors system or whatever you have there, popular vote, goth vote. So, yeah, it's not even close according to betting companies.
    ἄνδρα μοι ἔννεπε, μοῦσα, πολύτροπον, ὃς μάλα πολλὰ
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  40. #120
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    Re: Post election prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by sapator View Post
    It's 60-40 according to betting companies but I don't really grasp the electors system or whatever you have there, popular vote, goth vote. So, yeah, it's not even close according to betting companies.
    It's basically a tie according to most polls. Betting odds is something completely different. It just means more money is being bet on Trump to win. You can imply what ever you want from that but there's no research involved.

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