Post election prediction

[FunkyDexter]

You need to be more specific, there's been lots of wars. lol

Fair point. Certainly things were pretty rough before Thermopylae.

I was referring to the two world wars. Labour movements really started to take hold post WW1 and post WW2 saw a more generalised drive for equality called the "post war consensus". Before the wars inequality and poverty was horrendous (think Victorian and Edwardian stereotypes). From the late 40s through to the 70s and into the early 80s we had historically low levels of inequality and poverty - mainly because our whole societies bought into that being a worthwhile goal to pursue.

I'd say the decline started in the 80s but it's arguable. Certainly it got turbo charged by the economic crash in the early millennium and we're now back to a state that feels pretty close to those Victorian and Edwardian times again when the ultra wealthy hold a grotesque proportion of our resources and essentials like healthcare and housing have become aspirational for the rest of us.

[Shaggy Hiker]

How much of this sour attitude is by region and lifestyle?

Sure, for a long time now some regions and some groups lived high on the hog. Some of it came from exploitation of cheap illegal labor. Some came from wetting their beaks in unbalanced globalized trade as middlemen and bookkeepers. Some came from lavish Federal and State spending on busywork and gilding lilies.

Out here, it would be the former. The dairy and ag interests in this state have certainly benefitted from migrant labor, and doubtless have looked the other way when it comes to the legal status of at least some of that labor.

And EVERYBODY has benefitted from that in the form of cheaper produce and cheaper housing. Housing costs are rising anyways, but they wouldn't rise slower if the labor costs were increased.

So, we have all benefitted, including the migrants, who were there because they made much better wages than they would have at home. Yes, it could have been better, but what it will now be is more expensive. Even Trump is trying to find cover to look the other way when it comes to migrant farm workers. Those aren't jobs that US citizens want to do. They are short term, mobile, and often grueling. The end result will possibly be more automation or more legal migration, but either way it will mean higher prices, which won't impact the rich. After all, the rich don't care about prices for food and the very rich don't even notice.

As for the market crash, we had it until TACO Trump backed down. It has recovered...back to where it was before he did anything, and now the market is banking on him always backing down. Might work. He certainly has a track record in that regard, by now.

Meanwhile, there are ominous signs in the economy. Those job gains were in just two sectors, one of which was government (state and local only, of course). The dollar has been sliding steadily all year, and is now at the worst it has been in several decades. I've heard that it is the weakest it has been since the 70s, but that might not be right. What's going on there? Nothing that Trump has done is necessarily driving that, and it started before he actually got into office. Lastly, the most recent sale of treasury bonds was unenthusiastic.

The US economy has been strong since the recovery from the 2008 recession. It wouldn't even have wobbled had Trump not been elected. He's there now, though, and the warning signs are pretty evident. He's backed down on tariffs, and will probably continue to do so. That should dampen inflation risk. The world is beginning to doubt that the US can pay it's debts, though, and that would be really bad news for a whole lot of people....though not me, I think. I believe I'd end up benefitting from that.

[FunkyDexter]

for a long time now some regions and some groups lived high on the hog.

Gotta tell you that from the rest of the worlds perspective that region is the whole of the US and the group is all of your citizens. I don't think you realise how privileged you are. You have among the highest purchasing power by capita in the world.

[wes4dbt]

Before the wars inequality and poverty was horrendous (think Victorian and Edwardian stereotypes). From the late 40s through to the 70s and into the early 80s we had historically low levels of inequality and poverty - mainly because our whole societies bought into that being a worthwhile goal to pursue.

This may be true but how does society stop thinking it's a worthwhile goal?? My only thought is we became to entitled and forgot the work it takes to keep our equality, so we continually lost ground.

I doubt the answer is that simple, but it feels like a part of the problem.

[dilettante]

Post-WWII Europe has been subsidized and given every chance to throw off its imperialism and socialism to become stable modern societies and economies.

Gotta tell you that from the rest of the worlds perspective that region is the whole of the US and the group is all of your citizens. I don't think you realise how privileged you are. You have among the highest purchasing power by capita in the world.

Tell that to Hilary's Losers:



You sound maliciously envious.

The Æsop for Children: The Dog in the Manger

A Dog asleep in a manger filled with hay, was awakened by the Cattle, which came in tired and hungry from working in the field. But the Dog would not let them get near the manger, and snarled and snapped as if it were filled with the best of meat and bones, all for himself.

The Cattle looked at the Dog in disgust. "How selfish he is!" said one. "He cannot eat the hay and yet he will not let us eat it who are so hungry for it!"

Now the farmer came in. When he saw how the Dog was acting, he seized a stick and drove him out of the stable with many a blow for his selfish behavior.

Do not grudge others what you cannot enjoy yourself.

I get it. Freedom is your "hay." But barking that the rest of us should not have it just because it cannot nourish you is unreasonable.

[dday9]

Your assessment is shortsighted. The fact is that the federal reserve along with fractional reserve banking has been altering the money supply such that even extremely risky investments are worthwhile in terms of banks lending the money and entrepreneurs taking the risk. There is no market cleansing mechanism that exists and what we ultimately see is that the people who get the money first win because they’re able to spend it before inflation hits. If banks weren’t able to lend 10 to 1 and if money machine didn’t go brr we wouldn’t have seen the explosive growth we had but we would be in a much sounder position. We’re now at the point where interest payments exceeded the military budget, something “alarmist” we talking about in 2000. Unfortunately, we keep kicking the can down the road but eventually we will run out of bandaids.

Not only that, but the Trump coalition that got him in office is crumbling. Trump obviously still has his die hard supporters, but he literally had popular support to dramatically cut the budget and reduce the deficit, but instead he threw DOGE under the bus to lock in his first term centerpiece which wound up being more or less the status quo. If democrats would stop saying that reducing the rate of spending is the equivalent of budget cuts then they would have a leg to stand on, but they’re so anti-Trump that anything he does, even if it is more or less what they would have done, undercuts them. This is why you see non-boomer generations disenfranchising with both parties.

People my age recognize that you can’t continue having these bloated spending bills AND have a sound country 10/20 years from now.

[dilettante]

People my age recognize that you can’t continue having these bloated spending bills AND have a sound country 10/20 years from now.

I'm not clear whether you are identifying with the "Musk" camp or the Communists of the "Mamdani" camp. Or maybe the "Rand Paul" camp?

I'm not pro-deficit and never have been. Of course there is a great deal to dislike about this OBBB reconciliation bill that has gone into law. However it contains some really big and important items, and without the bill's compromises those would have been lost.


I have no clue where you are getting the idea Trump's support is "crumbling." Every poll and every measure is trending his way by leaps and bounds. The only place he's "hurting" is with a few die-hard lunatic fringe constituencies. Even CNN reports this.

He is doing so well now that June's party voter registration counts for Pennsylvania show that the State has flipped solidly "red" and you can bet your bottom dollar that's for Trump and not the Romneycrats. Iowa already flipped, and Wisconsin is expected to follow suit soon. Michigan likely already has as well, but party registration isn't required here so it is harder to gauge externally of an election.

[FunkyDexter]

But barking that the rest of us should not have it

I didn't say you should not have it. I said you don't seem to recognise that you've got it. Nice straw man you built there, though.

My only thought is we became to entitled and forgot the work it takes to keep our equality, so we continually lost ground.

I would say that is pretty much it. I'm not sure I'd have have called it entitled so much a duped.

[dilettante]

I didn't say you should not have it. I said you don't seem to recognise that you've got it.

My point is that "it" was earned and that "it" was ripped away and given to the undeserving (with a fat cut taken off the top). This is the nature of globalism. It rides on the backs of many to benefit the few.

It treated the heartland of this country as a colony to exploit. That nightmare is over. It is over for our coastal elites, and it is over for Europe and the UK. If things go well it might also someday be over for Israel.

Clean up your messes. Roll up your sleeves and stand on your own feet. We bailed your asses out of two World Wars, dealt with your messes in southeast Asia. Then we bribed you to keep you from starting another World War for the past 70 years.


Enough is enough. You have no moral or economic authority to tell Americans how to vote or how to live. British Imperialism is done. Start attending to your own garden, before you find yourself living under either Sharia Law or Neo-Sovietism. The choice is yours.

[dilettante]

Very long recorded livestream, but even the first few minutes help demonstrate the real breadth of Trump's current support among diverse groups:

https://www.youtube.com/live/44aIgCz...qX92bNsNxwu3aN

[wes4dbt]

I have no clue where you are getting the idea Trump's support is "crumbling." Every poll and every measure is trending his way by leaps and bounds. The only place he's "hurting" is with a few die-hard lunatic fringe constituencies. Even CNN reports this.

I have no clues what polls your talking about. I can't find any that supports that claim.

The Economist shows that 42% of people are favorable of Trump and 54% are unfavorable of him, according to the latest update from July 3.

According to the most recent Gallup poll, Trump's job approval rating was averaging 43% since he took office in this second term. His first term overall average was a 41% approval rating. At any given time during both terms thus far, his lowest to highest approval ratings have ranged between 34%-49%.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll from reported that, as of June 23, 41% of those surveyed gave him a favorable approval rating of his performance in office.

Rasmussen Reports poll from July 3 showed 49% approval and 48% disapproval of Trump.

Morning Consult poll updated June 30 showed 47% approve and 50% disapprove.

The American Research Group poll from June 17 through June 20 showed 38% approve and 59% disapprove..

Very long recorded livestream, but even the first few minutes help demonstrate the real breadth of Trump's current support among diverse groups:

That video demonstrates one white woman and 3 black women support Trump. Does that demonstrate the majority of white and black women support Trump???

[dilettante]

I have no clues what polls your talking about. I can't find any that supports that claim.

CNN HUMILIATED with Trump's 'HISTORY MAKING POLL' as Dems LEAVE the Party in DROVES!!!

[wes4dbt]

CNN HUMILIATED with Trump's 'HISTORY MAKING POLL' as Dems LEAVE the Party in DROVES!!!

You didn't claim Trump was polling well among Republicans, this was your claim,

Every poll and every measure is trending his way by leaps and bounds.

It's easy to see that's not true. In many other polls he is about the same. Up a little in some and down a little in others.

[dday9]

I'm not clear whether you are identifying with the "Musk" camp or the Communists of the "Mamdani" camp. Or maybe the "Rand Paul" camp?

None of the above. I am a Rothbardian.

I'm not pro-deficit and never have been. Of course there is a great deal to dislike about this OBBB reconciliation bill that has gone into law. However it contains some really big and important items, and without the bill's compromises those would have been lost.

So just more status quo? Its fine because it has Trumps name on it.

I have no clue where you are getting the idea Trump's support is "crumbling." Every poll and every measure is trending his way by leaps and bounds. The only place he's "hurting" is with a few die-hard lunatic fringe constituencies. Even CNN reports this.

Please tell me if I understand you correctly: don't listen to the polls during election time, but listen to them when they point favorably?

I can see with my own eyes, those who helped Trump to leaving the movement. Musk and Carlson being the two biggest. I think its only a matter of time before Gabbard is out too. I think JFK Jr. is probably fine only because Trump really doesn't care about what he's doing one way or the other.

He is doing so well now that June's party voter registration counts for Pennsylvania show that the State has flipped solidly "red" and you can bet your bottom dollar that's for Trump and not the Romneycrats. Iowa already flipped, and Wisconsin is expected to follow suit soon. Michigan likely already has as well, but party registration isn't required here so it is harder to gauge externally of an election.

Time will tell, but I'm hesitant to believe these are all Trump supporters. Look no further than the gubernatorial election results of Pennsylvania compared to the presidential election results.

[dilettante]

I suppose once TDS takes root there is no seeing reality.

[dday9]

Please elaborate on why you think I have TDS?

I praise him when he does well and scold him when he does poorly. It sounds like when you experience too much cognitive dissonance, instead of reflection, you resort to attributing TDS to absolve you from having to think critically.

[FunkyDexter]

My point is that "it" was earned

No it wasn't. You exploited the resources that were in front of you and pretty much exterminated an entire race of people (arguably multiple races) in the process. And it wasn't even you that exploited those resources; that would be the slaves you conveniently choose to ignore. And when that became unacceptable you shipped in a bunch of Mexicans on exploitation wages to do it before then blaming them for... well... doing what you were asking them to do. That's no more earned than any other nation in history. And no less immoral.

British Imperialism is done.

Yes, it is. We're at peace with it. We have been for over half a century.

But it aint us whining about our victimhood and how hard we've got it while being amongst the most privileged people in the world. That's all you, baby.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I suppose once TDS takes root there is no seeing reality.

Yeah, I guess so. You're sufficient proof of that.

[wes4dbt]

No it wasn't. You exploited the resources that were in front of you and pretty much exterminated an entire race of people (arguably multiple races) in the process. And it wasn't even you that exploited those resources; that would be the slaves you conveniently choose to ignore. And when that became unacceptable you shipped in a bunch of Mexicans on exploitation wages to do it before then blaming them for... well... doing what you were asking them to do. That's no more earned than any other nation in history. And no less immoral.

You don't give us enough credit. We've exploited anyone who was exploitable. Not just slaves and Mexicans.

But that's not unique to us.

[Peter Porter]

I suppose once TDS takes root there is no seeing reality.

Knowing you have this problem means you have a chance to get better!

[dilettante]

I think the last time I witnessed debate of this caliber may have been in Pee Wee's Big Adventure.