Post election prediction

[sapator]

"108 billion tons per year: Antarctica witnesses sudden rise in glacier ice"

https://www.livenowfox.com/news/anta...e-sheet-growth
https://www.indiatoday.in/environmen...692-2025-05-05
https://eos.org/science-updates/new-...arctic-sea-ice

And the WOKERS (I posted this eons ago in the known thread) https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/20/c...a-climate-intl

"John Turner and Josefino Comiso call for a coordinated push to crack the baffling rise and fall of sea ice around Antarctica."
https://www.nature.com/articles/547275a

So what do 99% of the scientist suggest? The climate gets hotter or colder or the same?

[FunkyDexter]

that might make us "conspiracy theorists."

It just means there's some function at play we haven't identified. No conspiracy required.

An example of such a function might be that both parties adjust their stance, messaging and policies to appeal to the broadest spectrum of current opinion while staying in touch with their wing. Meaning that, as the Overton Window shifts back and forward, the parties tend to self correct, leading to the even split observed. FWIW, I don't think that's a satisfactory explanation (it's overly simplistic) but it should provide an example of the sort of thing I'm talking about.

On the conspiracy theorist thing: if you're still cleaving to Election Fraud having changed the result of the 2020 election despite every audit, including those initiated by Trump, failing to find evidence and it having been dismissed in 62 separate court hearings including those held by Trump appointed judges, dismissed by Trump's own appointed Attorney General, dismissed by Trump's own DOJ, dismissed by Trump's own appointed aides and even dismissed by his own daughter, then yeah, you qualify.

When your position requires the "Deep State" to extend to the entire state then it's not the Deep State. It's just the State.

[FunkyDexter]

The climate gets hotter or colder or the same?

Yes.

The climate changes regionally as well as globally. It also varies temporally. So while some parts of Antarctica have seen increased snowfall and ice growth, particularly in East Antarctica, this has not been enough to offset losses in their regions, particularly the West. And it really has not been enough to offset ice loss in the Arctic which is occurring at a much higher rate. The overall trend is still towards loss I'm afraid.

[sapator]

That damn climate, always on the run.

[Shaggy Hiker]

A rise in Antarctic ice could have some interesting results. When the Thwaites glacier unzips, I would think that more ice would cause the unzipping to be faster and the result to be greater. That would be entertaining.

[dilettante]

So Carney scuttled home after being told he has nothing we need. Starmer caved on trade. Stock markets are up. Xi probably won't last much longer, his plans make those around him uncomfortable. Australia is scratching its rear wondering if they really want to be last for tucker.

[Niya]

Oh, right, Newton's method. Because nothing says 'I'm super intelligent' like casually dropping an advanced math term into a political conversation. Who needs actual points when you can just leave everyone wondering if they missed a calculus class?

What an odd thing to say. Except for the most basic understanding of graphs, functions and derivatives, I don't know **** about calculus.

Newton's method isn't even remotely the most advanced mathematical concept there is. This is all it is:-

    Function SqrtNewton(number As Double, Optional tolerance As Double = 0.000001, Optional maxIterations As Integer = 1000) As Double
        If number < 0 Then
            Throw New ArgumentException("Cannot compute the square root of a negative number.")
        ElseIf number = 0 Then
            Return 0
        End If

        Dim guess As Double = number / 2.0
        Dim iteration As Integer = 0

        While Math.Abs(guess * guess - number) > tolerance AndAlso iteration < maxIterations
            guess = (guess + number / guess) / 2.0
            iteration += 1
        End While

        Return guess
    End Function

That is one of the the most basic applications of Newton's method there is. In the absence of an intrinsic function to calculate square roots, the above can be used. It's just an iterative method of calculating roots. It keeps squaring smaller and smaller numbers until the difference between those squares and the original number you want to find the square root of is almost zero. It's a thing I'd expect all experience programmers to at least be aware of which I why I felt comfortable mentioning it here. If the intent of your comment was to insult me then you only insult yourself by suggesting that I overestimated you. If I wanted to show off I wouldn't use something so trivial as Newton's method to do so.

As for why I mentioned it, it was just the thought that immediately spang to mind when I was reading wes's post. I thought the question of why there was such an even split on political positions was fascinating. A part of me was immediately reaching for an answer and that came to mind. I was thinking of elections as iterations where people were closing in on an optimal answer to how people can be maximally happy and minimally frustrated and I was thinking that such an even split could be an indication that society was close to an optimal answer which is why I related it to Newton's method. It's just a random thought I had, nothing more.

By the way, the only reason I asked for a guess, was not to "show off" but it was on the off chance that anyone else was thinking along similar lines because if they were, I wouldn't have to bother explaining my thought process.

You know what else I find interesting? Wes, Tyson and Sapator took my comment in jest, but you chose to attack me for it. It is as harmless a comment as I've ever made yet somehow you found reason to take offense. What am I to make of that? Is it because I'm not some radical Trump hating liberal like you, that makes it ok to attack me over every mundane thing I say? Tell me. I'd really like to know.

[sapator]

TBF I was also hinting that Newt had help from the dudes that invented modern math. You're welcome btw, but 99% of the math scientist did not get it
I'm quite fond of Peter so I'm not sure he remarked that on purpose as he haven't given any previous samples of that type, so maybe he meant it not as an attack. Seems like an attack but I won't stand in the middle he can explain what that remark was.

[Niya]

TBF I was also hinting that Newt had help from the dudes that invented modern math. You're welcome btw, but 99% of the math scientist did not get it

That just goes to show how much of a math genius I am not. I didn't even catch that. I have the most basic formal education you can imagine. A lot of the stuff I know I learned on my own. The notion that I could show off on anyone is laughable.

I'm quite fond of Peter so I'm not sure he remarked that on purpose as he haven't given any previous samples of that type,

I am too, and we had a very good relationship on these boards until I dared to criticize gender ideology a couple of years ago. Since that time he along with many others developed a kind of seething contempt towards me. I remember that very clearly.

so maybe he meant it not as an attack.

Oh it was meant as an attack. I am 100% certain of that. He is accusing me of showing off as an attempt to belittle the people here for not having god-like math skills. He is directly attacking my character by suggesting I am someone who takes joy in tearing people down.

[Peter Porter]

What an odd thing to say. Except for the most basic understanding of graphs, functions and derivatives, I don't know **** about calculus.

Newton's method isn't even remotely the most advanced mathematical concept there is. This is all it is:-

    Function SqrtNewton(number As Double, Optional tolerance As Double = 0.000001, Optional maxIterations As Integer = 1000) As Double
        If number < 0 Then
            Throw New ArgumentException("Cannot compute the square root of a negative number.")
        ElseIf number = 0 Then
            Return 0
        End If

        Dim guess As Double = number / 2.0
        Dim iteration As Integer = 0

        While Math.Abs(guess * guess - number) > tolerance AndAlso iteration < maxIterations
            guess = (guess + number / guess) / 2.0
            iteration += 1
        End While

        Return guess
    End Function

That is one of the the most basic applications of Newton's method there is. In the absence of an intrinsic function to calculate square roots, the above can be used. It's just an iterative method of calculating roots. It keeps squaring smaller and smaller numbers until the difference between those squares and the original number you want to find the square root of is almost zero. It's a thing I'd expect all experience programmers to at least be aware of which I why I felt comfortable mentioning it here. If the intent of your comment was to insult me then you only insult yourself by suggesting that I overestimated you. If I wanted to show off I wouldn't use something so trivial as Newton's method to do so.

As for why I mentioned it, it was just the thought that immediately spang to mind when I was reading wes's post. I thought the question of why there was such an even split on political positions was fascinating. A part of me was immediately reaching for an answer and that came to mind. I was thinking of elections as iterations where people were closing in on an optimal answer to how people can be maximally happy and minimally frustrated and I was thinking that such an even split could be an indication that society was close to an optimal answer which is why I related it to Newton's method. It's just a random thought I had, nothing more.

By the way, the only reason I asked for a guess, was not to "show off" but it was on the off chance that anyone else was thinking along similar lines because if they were, I wouldn't have to bother explaining my thought process.

You know what else I find interesting? Wes, Tyson and Sapator took my comment in jest, but you chose to attack me for it. It is as harmless a comment as I've ever made yet somehow you found reason to take offense. What am I to make of that?

Hey Niya, I was just joking. I even added a smiley to show it was lighthearted. If it came off as a dig, I apologize. That really wasn’t my intention.

Is it because I'm not some radical Trump hating liberal like you, that makes it ok to attack me over every mundane thing I say? Tell me. I'd really like to know.

I don’t really post much in this thread, especially when it comes to politics. I usually just stay out of those discussions. Honestly, we probably agree on more than it seems. I’m just not someone who likes putting all my views out there.

[sapator]

Heard of the new Pope? He woked out in white smoke

[TysonLPrice]

A defunct Soviet Venus probe, Kosmos 482, is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere and likely crash-land sometime around May 10, 2025. I keep hearing one of my pet peeves about it. Broadcasters that say it will probably hit water because "the earth is mostly water". Hardly, it is relatively a thin coat on the surface of the earth. You can accurately say that most of the earth's surface is covered in water though.

[Zvoni]

Heard of the new Pope? He woked out in white smoke

"Make Vatican great again"?

[sapator]

How much great?

P.S. Been there , nice statues...Oh wait!

[TysonLPrice]

What an odd thing to say. Except for the most basic understanding of graphs, functions and derivatives, I don't know **** about calculus.

Newton's method isn't even remotely the most advanced mathematical concept there is. This is all it is:-

    Function SqrtNewton(number As Double, Optional tolerance As Double = 0.000001, Optional maxIterations As Integer = 1000) As Double
        If number < 0 Then
            Throw New ArgumentException("Cannot compute the square root of a negative number.")
        ElseIf number = 0 Then
            Return 0
        End If

        Dim guess As Double = number / 2.0
        Dim iteration As Integer = 0

        While Math.Abs(guess * guess - number) > tolerance AndAlso iteration < maxIterations
            guess = (guess + number / guess) / 2.0
            iteration += 1
        End While

        Return guess
    End Function

That is one of the the most basic applications of Newton's method there is. In the absence of an intrinsic function to calculate square roots, the above can be used. It's just an iterative method of calculating roots. It keeps squaring smaller and smaller numbers until the difference between those squares and the original number you want to find the square root of is almost zero. It's a thing I'd expect all experience programmers to at least be aware of which I why I felt comfortable mentioning it here. If the intent of your comment was to insult me then you only insult yourself by suggesting that I overestimated you. If I wanted to show off I wouldn't use something so trivial as Newton's method to do so.

As for why I mentioned it, it was just the thought that immediately spang to mind when I was reading wes's post. I thought the question of why there was such an even split on political positions was fascinating. A part of me was immediately reaching for an answer and that came to mind. I was thinking of elections as iterations where people were closing in on an optimal answer to how people can be maximally happy and minimally frustrated and I was thinking that such an even split could be an indication that society was close to an optimal answer which is why I related it to Newton's method. It's just a random thought I had, nothing more.

By the way, the only reason I asked for a guess, was not to "show off" but it was on the off chance that anyone else was thinking along similar lines because if they were, I wouldn't have to bother explaining my thought process.

You know what else I find interesting? Wes, Tyson and Sapator took my comment in jest, but you chose to attack me for it. It is as harmless a comment as I've ever made yet somehow you found reason to take offense. What am I to make of that? Is it because I'm not some radical Trump hating liberal like you, that makes it ok to attack me over every mundane thing I say? Tell me. I'd really like to know.

And then there was Einstein...

[Niya]

Hey Niya, I was just joking. I even added a smiley to show it was lighthearted. If it came off as a dig, I apologize. That really wasn’t my intention.

Well, this is embarrassing. If that is so, then I am sorry about that. I'm so used to being piled on in these threads for my political opinions. It's becoming harder to discern genuine lighthearded jabs from snarky underhanded insults. Again, apologies for that. I'll try to be more discerning in the future.

[FunkyDexter]

That is one of the the most basic applications of Newton's method there is. In the absence of an intrinsic function to calculate square roots, the above can be used. It's just an iterative method of calculating roots. It keeps squaring smaller and smaller numbers until the difference between those squares and the original number you want to find the square root of is almost zero. It's a thing I'd expect all experience programmers to at least be aware of which I why I felt comfortable mentioning it here. If the intent of your comment was to insult me then you only insult yourself by suggesting that I overestimated you. If I wanted to show off I wouldn't use something so trivial as Newton's method to do so.

I think you're being unfair there. While the Newton method isn't particularly difficult to grasp if you're aware of it, I think it is quite obscure outside of the world of maths (and arguably heuristics). It's one of those things that you either know about or you don't but I don't think that not knowing about it speaks to a more general lack of knowledge.

That said, props on giving a good answer to my question. Newton's method isn't directly applicable but it does demonstrate the sort of forward chaining heuristic that could be at play. I like that as a suggestion.

[Niya]

I think you're being unfair there. While the Newton method isn't particularly difficult to grasp if you're aware of it, I think it is quite obscure outside of the world of maths (and arguably heuristics). It's one of those things that you either know about or you don't but I don't think that not knowing about it speaks to a more general lack of knowledge.

I agree with you if we're speaking in terms of the general population. However, among a group of seasoned programmers, I'd be surprised if most of them weren't aware of it. But then again, there is very little need for such a thing in the modern era where we have processors that can evaluate these functions intrinsically. I doubt anyone is using Newton's method to calculate square roots in code in anything but the most basic embedded systems that may lack such functionality. I myself was introduced to it when I learned about Quake 3's fast inverse square root function. It was written in ancient times when processors weren't as advanced. It used some kind of black magic to evaluate the answer. Newton's method was applied to increase the accuracy of that answer.

That said, props on giving a good answer to my question. Newton's method isn't directly applicable but it does demonstrate the sort of forward chaining heuristic that could be at play. I like that as a suggestion.

It was more of an instinctive thought than anything. It just felt like something that happened iteratively. Newton's method immediately came to mind because it works on a similar principle, which is to say you arrive at an answer iteratively. I agree with you guys that it is quite odd for a split to be so even. I don't feel as if it's something that "just happens"

[wes4dbt]

A defunct Soviet Venus probe, Kosmos 482, is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere and likely crash-land sometime around May 10, 2025. I keep hearing one of my pet peeves about it. Broadcasters that say it will probably hit water because "the earth is mostly water". Hardly, it is relatively a thin coat on the surface of the earth. You can accurately say that most of the earth's surface is covered in water though.

That's an interesting term "the earth is mostly water". Besides the surface water there is water throughout the earth, underground aquafers, in the soil, rocks. I wonder if the volume has ever been estimated. Of course the core is probably void of water but that still leaves the vast majority of the earth that contains some water.

There is still a lot of debate over where it all came from.

Edit:

I found this,

Earths volume - 260 billion cubic miles
Water volume - 332.5 million cubic miles

Even if that number for the amount of water doesn't include every drop, it looks like water makes up less than 1% of the earths volume. I thought it would be more.

[sapator]

I won't comment anything. France , Germany and Poland leaders:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1921285674688225698

[wes4dbt]

Well, the market is making up for most of the loses caused by all the tariff none sense. Still got higher tariffs than before Trump so we'll be paying more. Will that drive a surge in American made goods? Seems doubtful. Even with 30% tariffs it's probably still cheaper to import. Plus, with all the uncertainty from things like of a 90 day pauses and tariffs on one day off another, why would anyone want risk spending the money for the necessary manufacturing infrastructure.

At least it's good for the media, there is no shortage of stories and it keeps the analysts busy. Though I'm struggling to see what benefit we'll get from all this. Maybe the pride of paying $200 for a toaster that says Made In The USA.

[sapator]

Above it was UK PM not Poland. Sorry bout that .

[TysonLPrice]

The Russian space agency Roscosmos said in a Telegram post that the spacecraft reentered Earth's atmosphere Saturday morning at 2:24 a.m. ET and landed in the Indian Ocean somewhere west of Jakarta, Indonesia. It said Kosmos 482 reentered the atmosphere about 350 miles west of Middle Andaman Island off the coast of Myanmar.

https://www.npr.org/2025/05/12/nx-s1...years-in-orbit

[sapator]

snif snif
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handkerchief

[wes4dbt]

This is an interesting item the GOP wants in Trumps "big beautiful bill"

In the House bill, the item is listed as the "MAGA Accounts Contribution Pilot Program." The plan would give parents with a qualifying child a "one-time credit of $1,000" that'd be payable into the child's account.

To be eligible for the program, the child must be a US citizen "at birth," possess a Social Security number, and have a birthdate after December 31, 2024, and prior to January 1, 2029.

I'm not really for or against it, I just thought that was an interesting idea. The Dem's had proposed something like this before but it never happened.

The first thing that came to my mind was, how long does the money have to stay in the account.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump...204141303.html

[dilettante]

I'm not sure either.

Attempts have been made all over Europe to try to use government-sourced incentives to encourage having and raising children in the face of impending demographic collapse. But so far none of these has made a dent even though some of those programs have been around for coming up on a decade. It's not that these programs weren't taken advantage of by those having kids, but it has not worked as an incentive against the rising tide of DINKism.

Once you defeat natural control systems that tend to moderate such things it can be hard to compensate for their loss artificially.

[dilettante]

So much for the media narrative:

Democrats STUNNED as Trump DEFIES Expert Forecasts by LOWERING Inflation Despite Tariffs

[FunkyDexter]

Core inflation rose.

The drop in headline inflation is driven mainly by fuel costs which are highly volatile and their current deflation appears to be driven by lack of demand. That lack of demand is being caused by... you guessed it... a lack of trade goods being moved around. The tariff costs from China haven't hit consumers yet as ships take about a month to traverse the Pacific.

Give it a month.

[FunkyDexter]

If you want to see what the effect of tariffs is likely to be when they hit you might want to look at car prices. Because that industry was affected by your two next door neighbours (Canada and Mexico) the effects were far more immediate.

[TysonLPrice]

Core inflation rose.

The drop in headline inflation is driven mainly by fuel costs which are highly volatile and their current deflation appears to be driven by lack of demand. That lack of demand is being caused by... you guessed it... a lack of trade goods being moved around. The tariff costs from China haven't hit consumers yet as ships take about a month to traverse the Pacific.

Give it a month.

The real fun will be in four years J. D. Vance will be president, congress will elect Trump as speaker of the house, Vance and his VP will resign and "ta da" he is president again

[FunkyDexter]

The real fun will be in four years J. D. Vance will be president, congress will elect Trump as speaker of the house, Vance and his VP will resign and "ta da" he is president again

Yeah, I do think he'll try to find a way to serve a third term if he's physically and mentally able. My predictions on how:-

1. He will try to change the constitution between now and 2028 so he can just run himself. Some of his followers have already started putting motions forward to do this.
2. He will simply ignore the constitution and hope that the Supreme Court backs him
3. He will declare a state of emergency and postpone the election under that auspice (he may even declare that the USA is "at War" - probably with immigrants.)
4. He will use the above State of Emergency to change the constitution.
5. JD as Pres, Trump as Vice, JD resigns - basically what you're suggesting but without needing the Speaker to be an extra link.

My guess is that's the order he's going to try things in. I will also be quite surprised if you don't see some sort of high jinks at the mid terms.

[TysonLPrice]

Yeah, I do think he'll try to find a way to serve a third term if he's physically and mentally able. My predictions on how:-

1. He will try to change the constitution between now and 2028 so he can just run himself. Some of his followers have already started putting motions forward to do this.
2. He will simply ignore the constitution and hope that the Supreme Court backs him
3. He will declare a state of emergency and postpone the election under that auspice (he may even declare that the USA is "at War" - probably with immigrants.)
4. He will use the above State of Emergency to change the constitution.
5. JD as Pres, Trump as Vice, JD resigns - basically what you're suggesting but without needing the Speaker to be an extra link.

My guess is that's the order he's going to try things in. I will also be quite surprised if you don't see some sort of high jinks at the mid terms.

I posted that mostly tongue in cheek. But people said he wouldn't leave willingly the first term and they were right.

[dilettante]

Sounds insane to me. He's putting a lot of energy into this term. I'm sure he gets a chuckle out of the crazies who buy into it though. At least he isn't a cripple one misstep from a wheelchair for life like Dementia Joe.

[sapator]

When I mention sleepy back then, I got either hostile answers or non significant for his terms, he is fit for it.
Funny how times change

Edit. Now I remember his lovely son and for no reason at all I just sneezed like Maaacccrooonnn-iouuu.

[Niya]

Sounds insane to me. He's putting a lot of energy into this term. I'm sure he gets a chuckle out of the crazies who buy into it though.

People actually believe that Ukraine can beat Russia in head to head conventional warfare. If that isn't proof of the immense hypnotic power of corporate media, I don't know what is. They can make even intelligent people believe in all manner of nonsense.

[Shaggy Hiker]

However, among a group of seasoned programmers, I'd be surprised if most of them weren't aware of it.

I'm not that seasoned. I never seem to have enough thyme.

[Shaggy Hiker]

People actually believe that Ukraine can beat Russia in head to head conventional warfare. If that isn't proof of the immense hypnotic power of corporate media, I don't know what is. They can make even intelligent people believe in all manner of nonsense.

They can, though. The thing that war is showing is that what was conventional warfare in the last decade is no longer conventional warfare.

I would agree that if it was a matter of the fight ending once the last person was killed on one side or the other, then Ukraine must lose. That's not how wars end, though. Russia has lost wars before due to economic or morale collapse, even when they still had plenty of manpower. They have also persevered in the past after taking horrific losses.

This war will end when one side loses the will to keep fighting. That will be partly, but only partly, due to losses on the battlefield.

[sapator]

They can win , I'm still at the center square in Athens for years waiting to wave the NATO flag
Let's be realistic, with Trump not bother EU been lamers war wannabes Russia will stop when it suits them.

Anyhow.
Let's write about the crooks of EU , Von der Crucken , Pfizergate

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2x7gzdr01o
https://www.euractiv.com/section/pol...s-court-rules/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...urt-of-justice

[TysonLPrice]

They can, though. The thing that war is showing is that what was conventional warfare in the last decade is no longer conventional warfare.

I would agree that if it was a matter of the fight ending once the last person was killed on one side or the other, then Ukraine must lose. That's not how wars end, though. Russia has lost wars before due to economic or morale collapse, even when they still had plenty of manpower. They have also persevered in the past after taking horrific losses.

This war will end when one side loses the will to keep fighting. That will be partly, but only partly, due to losses on the battlefield.

Or maybe when Russia runs out of Korean soldiers and Iranian drones :-)

[wes4dbt]

5. JD as Pres, Trump as Vice, JD resigns - basically what you're suggesting but without needing the Speaker to be an extra link.

This is really the most likely. Though he might try some of those others, I don't see any possibility of success.

When asked about a third term he actually used that method as an example.

I'm not worried about a third term. My guess is there wouldn't be enough support if he tried. Besides that's a long way off and the current chaos is enough to deal with.