Post election prediction

[sapator]

Not entirely correct.
All Ford Focus for the european market are produced in Germany, they are NOT exported from the US (and this is just an example).
Donny's reasons for the tariffs is the "import/export imbalance" for the US.
If a Ford Focus is produced in Germany, what is the US actually exporting? Except a Brandname

The only real import of US-Cars to Germany (or Europe in General) are actually american cars NOT produced in Europe, which leaves the "unsellable" cars: The Mustangs, the F-150, the RAM's, the Dodge's, The Chevies and whichever i forgot

If you want it to push it this far all German cars are produced in Turkey
But if we are talking about car exception then there is not alarm before and after as they are not a significant percentage. But I guess Ford is a brand and US takes money for the cars sold even if they are produced in Albania and the opposite.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Do we export components that go into cars built in Germany? Would we even know? Those items cross borders so often that it's hard for the average person to track them.

[yereverluvinuncleber]

I was trying to think of a single American physical product we use en masse in the UK. I can't think of any.

Software and services via software, that's it. Granted it is a big 'it' but on the physical side imports, are more or less nothing. American stuff just doesn't 'fit', wrong size mostly.

Fashion doesn't count as there is no physical export.

There are some chains that the ignorant and stupid use (the simple masses) and that money goes back to the USA.

With cars there used to be Tesla but largely, no more now. I've seen people 'Heiling' them like they were driven by Adolf Hitler.

[TysonLPrice]

I was trying to think of a single American physical product we use en masse in the UK. I can't think of any.

Software and services via software, that's it. Granted it is a big 'it' but on the physical side imports, are more or less nothing. American stuff just doesn't 'fit', wrong size mostly.

Fashion doesn't count as there is no physical export.

There are some chains that the ignorant and stupid use (the simple masses) and that money goes back to the USA.

With cars there used to be Tesla but largely, no more now. I've seen people 'Heiling' them like they were driven by Adolf Hitler.

How about Coca-Cola? Windows OS? American cereals?

[FunkyDexter]

Coke, yes and Windows, yes. I can't think of any cereals we use though.

I think yereverluvin is mostly right. Other than infrastructure and software platforms (both customer facing like Amazon and back end infrastructure stuff) I don't think our end consumers really buy much American stuff. Probably some electronics but that mostly comes from the Far East, I think. And I don't think it's about price, either, which is why Trump's tariff aren't going to be particularly effective at getting Europe to buy more American goods. We don't like your cars because you don't know what a corner is, we think your food standards are awful, we sure as hell don't want anything to do with you pharmaceuticals industry and we're pretty suspicious about your products in general. Perhaps we're being snobs or perhaps our stuff really is better, I don't know... because I never buy it.

When we do buy American I think it's usually for "nostalgia" reasons e.g. Harley Davidson bikes, Jim Beam and Jack Daniels whiskeys etc. Objectively we can get better bikes from Italy or Japan and telling an Irishman or Scotsman that your Whiskey (or Whisky) is better that theirs would probably get them to stop fighting each other long enough to headbutt you in the face but, at the same time those brands do have a certain "cool" factor that creates a market over here. Also, you're trucks do look way cooler than ours even if ours are objectively better from an operational point of view.

It's also worth separating the concept of where a company is based from where a product is made in this discussion. Coke and Ford are American companies but when we buy a can of coke or a Ford Focus we're buying a European good. It was made in Europe and wouldn't be subject to tariffs. Some value might funnel back to the US in the form of IP licencing etc. but that's a different story. Unless Trump starts putting tariffs on services and/or intellectual property they don't cross over. I imagine that's somewhat different when you're talking about Canada or Mexico because I imagine that the physical goods are going back and forth across the border.

[dilettante]

The UK is all but deindustrialized, aside from some Chinese-owned steelmaking that is going to be shuttered. There is also a push under way to further deagriculturalize the island. Soon there won't be anything left but an Arab bazaar selling Chinese products to each other and looking like the world of Orwell's books.



"Anything from Europe!"

[FunkyDexter]

The UK is all but deindustrialized

Yes and no. Our industrial base has definitely declined since the 60s but we do still have a reasonably substantial manufacturing base. It tends to be focussed on second form production (i.e. import some base materials and turn them into a high end good) rather than first form like heavy industry or mineral exploitation.

Mostly though, we are a service based economy. Mostly finance (though we took a hit due to Brexit - it's why we're amazed that you're determined to repeat our mistake - protectionism is bad for you, trust us, we tried it) but we've also got big software industries, especially games and anti virus (though MS may have usurped the latter, I don't know) and various others.

And here I'm going to let you in on a little secret - the reason heavy industry and mineral exploitation left your country (and ours) isn't because other poorer countries "stole" it, it's because you didn't want it. Despite the nostalgic narrative working down a coal mine or on an automotive production line is an underpaid, physically difficult and dangerous job. Oh, sure, you get to sing Bruce Springsteen songs with extra credibility but that's small recompense for a statistically earlier death. There's a reason you personally learned to code rather than picked up a shovel.

Poorer nations don't send their kids down mines because they want a slice of your industry, they do it because they don't have the training and education infrastructures in place to take your high end jobs.


Edit> Oh, and I'd say the USA is looking a whole lot more Orwellian than Europe right now.

[Niya]

Software and services via software, that's it. Granted it is a big 'it' but on the physical side imports, are more or less nothing. American stuff just doesn't 'fit', wrong size mostly.

It's the same here. The only thing we use from the USA is software, whether it be games or operating systems like Windows, Linux, or office software like Word. Everything else we consume is made in China or Japan. A large number of our perishables are from China and our vehicles are mostly from Japan.

The only hard consumables made in the USA that have a significant presence are things like iPhones, iPads etc, although in this globalist economy who knows if those things are even made in the USA. Samsung phones are also a big deal here and Samsung is a Korean company I believe. Come to think of it, Samsung products on the whole are a big deal here. I'm talking Smart TVs and such.

Honestly, aside from software and iPhones, I don't know a single thing that is made in the USA, at least nothing on the market here.

[wes4dbt]

Just a quick Google search of what the UK imports from the US,

The UK imports a wide variety of goods from the US, with machinery and transport equipment, fuel, and chemicals being the top three categories. Specific examples include crude oil, natural gas, aircraft, and pharmaceutical products. In 2023, the UK imported £19.9 billion worth of machinery and transport equipment, £18.7 billion of fuel, and £7.8 billion of chemicals from the US

That sounds reasonable.

The claim was that UK/Europe has caved in to Trump and when asked how, the answer was tariffs. So my question is has the UK reduced it's tariffs on US imports? If there was any.

[wes4dbt]

Yet another U-Turn by the US. Or did we cave in?

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tar...b004f547109359

Though this one seemed inevitable. The screams would have been deafening if people here had to start paying 145% more for an IPhone.

I do wonder what will happen when people see the prices on Amazon more than double on Chinese imported goods. Then again, this could all disappear at any time.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Yeah, I'd say there was pressure on Trump, and he's highly susceptible to pressure because he never thinks these things through. Perhaps he really thought that China would be the one paying the tariffs, perhaps not, but he seeks public applause above all else. He wouldn't be getting much if some highly visible items suddenly doubled in price. The question for me is whether he will continue to back off one item after another in a flailing fashion as the impacts become visible.

[dilettante]

This is mainly a set of clips from CNN broadcasts. Contrary to what the globalist elite wishes were true, Trump just gets more and more popular and impressive.

[wes4dbt]

This is mainly a set of clips from CNN broadcasts. Contrary to what the globalist elite wishes were true, Trump just gets more and more popular and impressive.

You keep making this claim over and over but the facts just don't show that to be true. I can't find any polls showing that Trumps approval rating is increasing. The best rating I saw was 49% but that was two weeks old. The more recent polls show 43 - 48%

The video you posted has no information on Trumps "popularity".

The video you posted a few days ago where you claimed Trump was at 53% wasn't about Trumps popularity either. It was a poll about do you think a president has to much power.

You can project what ever you want from those videos but your claim that Trump is getting more and more popular isn't supported by any data.

[Peter Porter]

This is mainly a set of clips from CNN broadcasts. Contrary to what the globalist elite wishes were true, Trump just gets more and more popular and impressive.

I saw an interview months ago of this YouTuber who created this video. When the interviewer barely talked about politics to RJ, he hardly blinked. But when asked about his thoughts on Trump, RJ started blinking like a madman in his support for Trump, as if someone was shinning a spotlight at his face.

[Niya]

This is mainly a set of clips from CNN broadcasts. Contrary to what the globalist elite wishes were true, Trump just gets more and more popular and impressive.

Oh there is more of that than you'd believe. I know of at least one account on X dedicated to proving this point one person at a time. So far I have seen at least a dozen testimonials of individual Americans praising Trump for what he is doing. There was even one video of a guy almost brought to tears because he was finally able to get a construction job as a direct consequence of Trump deporting illegal immigrants. The guy couldn't thank Trump enough. His joy almost brought him to tears. It seems like he had been down and out for quite some time and was trying for an eternity to get a job.

Now a few dozen or even a few hundred videos is hardly a decent sample size to draw an accurate conclusion but still, you will never see any of this on CNN and that says a lot.

[FunkyDexter]

So my question is has the UK reduced it's tariffs on US imports? If there was any.

This is from memory so liable to be wrong. Take it with a pinch of salt.

I believe we trade with you under WTO rules which means there is a nominal tariff in both directions. We (and everyone else) make explicit trade deals to get rid of those tariffs but I don't think we'd made one with you yet. I believe it was still being negotiated. Generally we've been desperate for trade deals with anyone who'll have us since Brexit.

I believe the EU is also trading with you under WTO rules but I'm not sure.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Oh there is more of that than you'd believe. I know of at least one account on X dedicated to proving this point one person at a time. So far I have seen at least a dozen testimonials of individual Americans praising Trump for what he is doing. There was even one video of a guy almost brought to tears because he was finally able to get a construction job as a direct consequence of Trump deporting illegal immigrants. The guy couldn't thank Trump enough. His joy almost brought him to tears. It seems like he had been down and out for quite some time and was trying for an eternity to get a job.

Now a few dozen or even a few hundred videos is hardly a decent sample size to draw an accurate conclusion but still, you will never see any of this on CNN and that says a lot.

Yeah, you won't see that on any place that has to check their facts. It's an absurd thing to do. One at a time? With 330 million people, you can find enough people who believe the moon is made of cheese to fill a channel. Especially if you take their word at face value.

[wes4dbt]

This is from memory so liable to be wrong. Take it with a pinch of salt.

I believe we trade with you under WTO rules which means there is a nominal tariff in both directions. We (and everyone else) make explicit trade deals to get rid of those tariffs but I don't think we'd made one with you yet. I believe it was still being negotiated. Generally we've been desperate for trade deals with anyone who'll have us since Brexit.

I believe the EU is also trading with you under WTO rules but I'm not sure.

This is about what I thought.

Sounds like you don't know of any "caving in to Trump" from the UK. But I don't follow what's going on in Europe that closely, so thanks for the information.

Except for Mexico military/police stepping up it's presence near the border. I haven't been hearing of any major gains from Trumps tariffs and threats of more tariffs. Well, except from Trump and his supporters. Though these claims don't come with any actual facts.

[Niya]

Yeah, you won't see that on any place that has to check their facts.

You're missing the point.

Firstly, these are just testimonials. There is nothing to fact check. It's just ordinary people telling you what they think.

The point is that CNN will give voice to the people that hate him all day long but never show you what his supporters are saying. I find this extremely deceitful. Show the whole picture, not just one side.

[FunkyDexter]

Sounds like you don't know of any "caving in to Trump" from the UK

No, we certainly didn't "cave in" in any way I can determine. Europe actually threatened him with retaliatory tariffs so it's really hard to see how they can have caved in.

Bottom line, Trump bailed.

[wes4dbt]

You're missing the point.

Firstly, these are just testimonials. There is nothing to fact check. It's just ordinary people telling you what they think.

The point is that CNN will give voice to the people that hate him all day long but never show you what his supporters are saying. I find this extremely deceitful. Show the whole picture, not just one side.

That's not true. I don't watch much CNN but I've seen interviews with Trump supporters both regular citizens and politicians. There is no doubt that CNN show a lot more negative interviews about Trump. But to say "never" isn't true.

Though, this is all well known. If you want right biased news then go watch FOX or NewsMax. If you want to watch left biased news go watch CNN or MSNBC. Your "extremely deceitful" cries are well known facts.

[wes4dbt]

Yeah, I'd say there was pressure on Trump, and he's highly susceptible to pressure because he never thinks these things through. Perhaps he really thought that China would be the one paying the tariffs, perhaps not, but he seeks public applause above all else. He wouldn't be getting much if some highly visible items suddenly doubled in price. The question for me is whether he will continue to back off one item after another in a flailing fashion as the impacts become visible.

Yeah, that certainly is a big question mark. I don't think anyone knows, especially Trump.

I think he's been embarrassed about this latest backpedaling. They just came out and said the exemption is temporary.

[wes4dbt]

The lengths and efforts that the Trump administration is going to not correct their error has reached absurdity. They bring the president of El Salvador here to say he wont release they guy because he's a terrorist. Though there is never any information on what makes him a terrorist. Plus, Trump is playing the part of "well I can't do anything, it's his country". It's all pretty low grade theatrics.

All of this because they don't want to obey the law.

[Shaggy Hiker]

You're missing the point.

Firstly, these are just testimonials. There is nothing to fact check. It's just ordinary people telling you what they think.

The point is that CNN will give voice to the people that hate him all day long but never show you what his supporters are saying. I find this extremely deceitful. Show the whole picture, not just one side.

There is something to fact check, unfortunately. You mentioned the story about the person who got a construction job because of Trump's actions. Here's an ugly graph for you about housing starts in the US:

https://www.macrotrends.net/1314/hou...storical-chart

I would have preferred something more focused on the last decade, but this does show something interesting, as it shows the collapse in housing starts when the housing bubble burst. Whether or not this accounts for the runup in housing costs in the US is somewhat debatable, though it does show that housing starts are too low to meet demand (both due to growth and due to replacement of structures that burn down, are deemed uninhabitable, etc.). So, he's blaming illegals for taking jobs that don't exist. We need more building in the US, but it seems pretty unlikely that the under shot is due to illegals taking all the jobs. It's far more likely that the jobs just aren't there, and haven't been for a long time.

When you have people fighting over crumbs, it may be that they are losing out to illegals, but that's not really the issue. The issue is that they shouldn't be fighting over crumbs in the first place. That is most likely to be primarily due to local restrictions such as zoning. House building tends not to have a federal component...except for lumber and steel, two things that were directly in the tariff crosshairs.

So you are taking the testimony of somebody who is going after the scapegoat he was told to go after, even when a bit of thought would show that isn't the problem. Whether Trump has noticeably changed that situation in two months is a different matter.

[wes4dbt]

Though there is never any information on what makes him a terrorist.

I'm quoting myself here. Obviously I find myself interesting.

I did some reading on Abrego Garcia and found he was picked up by ICE several years ago and they wanted to deport him. They alleged he was a gang member, which he denied. ICE told the court a confidential informant had identified him as a gang member. No charges were filed and eventually he was released and the judge gave a protection order not to be deported.

That said, I want to be clear, at issue here isn't if he is a gang member or not. The issue here is a judges order was ignored. The government does want to make an effort to correct an admitted mistake. Now they want to take it a step further and ignore the Supreme Courts ruling.

Instead of just correcting the error and then deporting him legally. If deporting him is important to them. We get this drawn out farce.

[TysonLPrice]

I'm quoting myself here. Obviously I find myself interesting.

I did some reading on Abrego Garcia and found he was picked up by ICE several years ago and they wanted to deport him. They alleged he was a gang member, which he denied. ICE told the court a confidential informant had identified him as a gang member. No charges were filed and eventually he was released and the judge gave a protection order not to be deported.

That said, I want to be clear, at issue here isn't if he is a gang member or not. The issue here is a judges order was ignored. The government does want to make an effort to correct an admitted mistake. Now they want to take it a step further and ignore the Supreme Courts ruling.

Instead of just correcting the error and then deporting him legally. If deporting him is important to them. We get this drawn out farce.

Trump isn't "ignoring" the supreme court...it said to "facilitate" his return. The shallowest of efforts cover that. It must be nice to have your own personal "Supreme Court".

[FunkyDexter]

When you have people fighting over crumbs, it may be that they are losing out to illegals, but that's not really the issue. The issue is that they shouldn't be fighting over crumbs in the first place.

^This! One thousand times this!^

You might be interested in Gary's Economics. He really homes in on the problem being wealth inequality, which is basically what you're talking about.

Trump isn't "ignoring" the supreme court...it said to "facilitate" his return

Yeah, sadly that's true. The supreme court took all the teeth out of the judgement by removing the need to "execute" his retrieval. "Facilitate" just means to make easier, so all they need to do is say "he can come back if he can get out, get a passport, and arrange his own transport" to achieve that bar. Meanwhile they get to roll out Bukele to say, "well I can't let him go, that's up to you lot". That meeting yesterday was disgusting on a human level.

[TysonLPrice]

^This! One thousand times this!^

You might be interested in Gary's Economics. He really homes in on the problem being wealth inequality, which is basically what you're talking about.

Yeah, sadly that's true. The supreme court took all the teeth out of the judgement by removing the need to "execute" his retrieval. "Facilitate" just means to make easier, so all they need to do is say "he can come back if he can get out, get a passport, and arrange his own transport" to achieve that bar. Meanwhile they get to roll out Bukele to say, "well I can't let him go, that's up to you lot". That meeting yesterday was disgusting on a human level.

A want to be dictator and a real dictator looked Americans in the eye and flat out lied to us. They can't get him out, BS

[wes4dbt]

Trump isn't "ignoring" the supreme court...it said to "facilitate" his return. The shallowest of efforts cover that. It must be nice to have your own personal "Supreme Court".

True, Trump isn't ignoring the Supreme Court. But he isn't even making the shallowest of efforts to return Garcia. He is putting a lot of effort into acting like he is making an effort. So, ignoring wasn't the right word. He is failing to comply with the Supreme Court ruling.

[TysonLPrice]

True, Trump isn't ignoring the Supreme Court. But he isn't even making the shallowest of efforts to return Garcia. He is putting a lot of effort into acting like he is making an effort. So, ignoring wasn't the right word. He is failing to comply with the Supreme Court ruling.

*I have to disagree again...he is complying. He tried to "facilitate it" and that is "complying". I think he dodged that bullet. Agreed he he is disregarding the "intent". He is flouting the intent, assuming the republican supreme court didn't be vague on purpose, But when you have your own supreme court...

Trump...I need immunity to be president...SCOTUS..OK.

[PlausiblyDamp]

*I have to disagree again...he is complying. He tried to "facilitate it" and that is "complying". I think he dodged that bullet. Agreed he he is disregarding the "intent". He is flouting the intent, assuming the republican supreme court didn't be vague on purpose, But when you have your own supreme court...

Trump...I need immunity to be president...SCOTUS..OK.

I must admit I find it pretty terrifying how easily it was for a person to be arrested, and then shipped to another country, and then jailed; with apparently no due process, or proof of criminal behaviour - hell there was even granted legal status that prevented him from being deported in this way. The fact that this all happened and then they admitted it was an "administrative error", but then claimed they couldn't do anything to get him freed or returned just makes this even more terrifying.

Then this is followed by the idea of deporting US citizens to the same place, effectively a one way trip as we have already seen the Republicans claim they no longer have jurisdiction once they have sent someone there. So, under this system anyone could be "disappeared" to a foreign jail with no effective legal challenge, or possibility of return.

When Trump said he would be a dictator only on day one it looks like another lie, this current behaviour is most definitely straight out of a dictator's playbook.

[wes4dbt]

He tried to "facilitate it" and that is "complying".

How??? That staged show with the El Salvador president doesn't qualify. I'd say it qualifies for the opposite. Though, I guess it will be up to the court to decide if pretending to facilitate is enough. Maybe your talking about something else.

[dilettante]

Hmm, isn't the UK the place where cops come and haul you off to jail in the night over a tweet expressing dissatisfaction with your children's school? Meanwhile grooming gangs go unpunished and all but uncriticized?

Or in a rush to transform itself into the latest official refuge for radical Islam?

Or thumping the tub for Biden's War in Ukraine? Do you have your 72-hour survival go-bag packed yet?

[TysonLPrice]

How??? That staged show with the El Salvador president doesn't qualify. I'd say it qualifies for the opposite. Though, I guess it will be up to the court to decide if pretending to facilitate is enough. Maybe your talking about something else.

Facilitate is in the eye of the beholder. If they asked politely, and were turned down, they tried. Maybe that isn't good enough in your eyes. They obviously think it is good enough. I know what you are saying, you are not allowing for a loose interpretation of the meaning, and focusing on the intent. But there are other, less honest, ways to follow "facilitate". I suspect that is why SCOTUS worded it that way. To save him.

The Trump administration says they are offering him a ride back, if El Salvador releases him. That is their idea of "facilitating".

[FunkyDexter]

isn't the UK the place where cops come and haul you off to jail in the night over a tweet expressing dissatisfaction with your children's school?

No... but close. What happened was that the school accused the parents involved of harassment after a campaign of communications (emails, social media posts etc.) because they objected to a new teacher hire. The police took the two in (during the day) for questioning then subsequently released them without charge due to lack of evidence. It's unclear at this stage whether he communications really didn't rise to the level of harassment or whether it was simple unprovable, I suspect it was a bit of both.

I agree that it wasn't well handled but if this was the bast whataboutism you could come up with to deflect from a legal immigrant with an American family with no prior convictions and no evidence of a current being renditioned to a brutal torture prison in a foreign country without due process, having the rendition acknowledged as an error and then still being abandoned there... well, then you're getting pretty deep into the cope. And don't forget, Trump wants to be able to do that to you too.

Meanwhile grooming gangs go unpunished and all but uncriticized?

No. The grooming gang you're referring to was the Rotherham one. They were all tried, convicted and jailed under Kier Starmer and a wider national review was undertaken. The review found that grooming gangs, while extant, actually represented a tiny minority of paedophilia cases in the UK and, more alarmingly, were not typically referred to as grooming gangs except when the perpetrators were Muslim.

Or in a rush to transform itself into the latest official refuge for radical Islam?

No. We did have something of an upsurge in Islamism (as opposed to Islam) in the noughties but it was largely stamped out. We have the occasional douchebag popping up at anti Israel protests following the Gaza conflict but they're very much the exception.

I suggest you pull your head out of the far right circles you've descended into and actually engage with reality.

[Shaggy Hiker]

We have anti Semitic people pop up at rallies, too. It's only a problem if they don't support Trump, apparently. If they do support him, they are very fine people (Charlottesville), or have been unjustly persecuted by the government (Jan 6th rioters, some of whom were anti-Semitic, and all were pardoned).

[wes4dbt]

I know what you are saying, you are not allowing for a loose interpretation of the meaning, and focusing on the intent.

Yeah, my opinion is based on their intent or what they have actually done, not what they have pretended to due. All their efforts have been focus on not bringing him back and they have put a lot of effort into that.

It's such inhumane position to take. The lack of consideration of the peoples lives this effects is disgraceful. They've already admitted it was wrong, what's the point.

[wes4dbt]

We have anti Semitic people pop up at rallies, too. It's only a problem if they don't support Trump, apparently. If they do support him, they are very fine people (Charlottesville), or have been unjustly persecuted by the government (Jan 6th rioters, some of whom were anti-Semitic, and all were pardoned).

Have you noticed that they call all the people that protest against what Israel is doing in Gaza as anti Semitic. I guess it's their way of demonizing them and courting favor with the Jewish voters. The fact that the rallies are actually about the indiscriminate killing of tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians by Israel is ignored.

[Shaggy Hiker]

It's the club they use to bash people who don't support them. They don't use the same term for people who do support them. Use the biggest stick, I suppose.

[dilettante]

The mental issues of the left are on full display.

Democrat voters call for violence as new poll hands Trump HUGE VICTORY