Israel?

[wes4dbt]

What do you think about this cease fire. Is it real? Israel is already dragging it's feet and making excuses.

Sunday seem a long way away at this point.

[Shaggy Hiker]

It isn't real. Israel will drag it out until at least the 21st.

[wes4dbt]

It isn't real. Israel will drag it out until at least the 21st.

Sounds like you think Israel wants to suck up to Trump. Sounds reasonable. I'm pretty sure Trump will try and take credit.

It doesn't seem like Israel wants to stop killing Palestinians.

[TysonLPrice]

Sounds like you think Israel wants to suck up to Trump. Sounds reasonable. I'm pretty sure Trump will try and take credit.

It doesn't seem like Israel wants to stop killing Palestinians.

Since 1967 and counting...

[Shaggy Hiker]

Two of his coalition partners threatened to pull out of the coalition over this. So far, they have not. If they do, then the government falls. So, will they? And if they don't, then what did Netanyahu give them to keep them in?

He may have given them nothing. They might have calculated that a threat was worth trying, but not worth going through with. No other government will give them what they want, so they're better off sticking with what they have.

[TysonLPrice]

Two of his coalition partners threatened to pull out of the coalition over this. So far, they have not. If they do, then the government falls. So, will they? And if they don't, then what did Netanyahu give them to keep them in?

He may have given them nothing. They might have calculated that a threat was worth trying, but not worth going through with. No other government will give them what they want, so they're better off sticking with what they have.

In three days he will have a trump card...that may up the ante.

[wes4dbt]

Well, it looks like the deal was accepted by the Israeli's.

We'll just have to wait and see if they are sincere.

[TysonLPrice]

Well, it looks like the deal was accepted by the Israeli's.

We'll just have to wait and see if they are sincere.

Last I heard Netanyahu had to agree to start up the war again at the end of Phase I, effectively killing phases II and III.

[FunkyDexter]

I'm pretty sure Trump will try and take credit.

I am willing to give him some of the credit. I imagine his threats did have some effect on getting Hamas to the table (though I think they've been more willing to negotiate prior to now so it's not clear how much that was really worth). I don't think he can take credit for Netanyahu coming to the table though. If that was on Trump then Netanyahu would have delayed until the 21st to make sure he got the credit. And it was Biden's team's plan that has been agreed so they should certainly get some credit too.

There's a YouTuber call William Spaniel who I like and he did a pretty good examination of this.

I honestly don't know if this is going to last. I'm more optimistic than I have been up to now but the internal politics in Israel are pretty complicated. Netanyahu's Right flank are threatening to leave but the Left have offered to support him on this so... who knows. At this point Hezbollah's leadership have been pretty much eradicated, Hamas's have been severely weakened and, with the collapse of Syria, I don't think there's much threat of the Palestinian side breaking it in the short term - though we shouldn't forget that the PLA will still not be in power in Gaza so Hamas is likely to hold power there.

[wes4dbt]

though we shouldn't forget that the PLA will still not be in power in Gaza so Hamas is likely to hold power there.

This is the problem that needs to be fixed.

Israel can never kill all the terrorist in the region, they need the Palestinians and Israelis working together to control it. But I don't see how that's possible now, after all these attacks and killing of innocent Palestinians recently by the Israelis, why would the Palestinians want to work with the Israelis?

[Shaggy Hiker]

It may last. After the fall of Syria, Iran may simply be too weakened to be willing to help their proxies, all of whom have proven to be deeply flawed. That gives people room to breathe. Some are saying that Trump should get some credit for this, and I'm fine with that. The reasoning is that Netanyahu wasn't sure what would happen after today if the peace deal hadn't been started. Chaos for the win...is still a win...if there can be anything like a win in that mess. I suppose it's a bit of a win for the families of the hostages that were returned alive. That's a fair amount.

[wes4dbt]

I don't see how eventually it doesn't degrade back into deadly conflicts. No progress has been made with Israel's relationship with it's neighbors. If anything they've created more hatred towards them.

Maybe the fear of Israel's retaliation will have some effect. I just don't think that'll be enough.

[TysonLPrice]

New president, new ball game. Buckle up!

[FunkyDexter]

I don't see how eventually it doesn't degrade back into deadly conflicts.

What optimism I have comes mostly from the "eventually" bit.

[wes4dbt]

What optimism I have comes mostly from the "eventually" bit.

Unless Palestinians can get some help forming a government strong enough to take control away from Hamas, I'd say "eventually" will be less than a year.

[Shaggy Hiker]

They don't just have to take control away from Hamas, they have to take it away from the current PLA, as well. They HAVE a government, it's just horrible.

[wes4dbt]

They don't just have to take control away from Hamas, they have to take it away from the current PLA, as well. They HAVE a government, it's just horrible.

I don't know if there can be any change happening for a long time. Right now my guess is most are preoccupied with just surviving day to day. Over coming such mass destruction probably feels overwhelming.

[wes4dbt]

I was thinking about this and the thought of a UN peace keeping force with a buffer came to mind. Not that Israel would accept that.

But didn't we have one in place a long time ago or am I thinking of somewhere else. Don't remember if it was effective either.

[xiaoyao]

????????6??The wind outside is very strong, and it will freeze in two days.

[wes4dbt]

I saw a headline saying crowds of joyous Palestinians were heading back to northern Gaza. I hope humanitarian aid is following them because there is nothing there but destruction. No water, bathrooms, housing, food. Just mainly rubble.

[TysonLPrice]

I saw a headline saying crowds of joyous Palestinians were heading back to northern Gaza. I hope humanitarian aid is following them because there is nothing there but destruction. No water, bathrooms, housing, food. Just mainly rubble.

Trump wants to just level it and use it for other purposes. Who said he couldn't make it worse for them?

[TysonLPrice]

Trump proposes U.S. take over Gaza...

I guess that will be an improvement. He said he will make it the "'Riviera of the Middle East'". One day he wants to level it and the next day own it and develop it.

[FunkyDexter]

Yeah, and that's literally ethnic cleansing. He's gone full blown fascist.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I don't think Trump counts as fascist on that one. He had the same view about North Korea last time around, so he's being pretty consistent on this: Find a beach, build a resort, consequences are for minions to worry about.

[FunkyDexter]

I can't speak to North Korea because I don't know the background but what he's talking about in Gaza is the forcible removal of all Gazans. That's the dictionary definition of ethnic cleansing. (N.b. people often confuse ethnic cleansing with genocide but they're not the same thing). His plans to build a resort on it aren't part of that equation.

[wes4dbt]

I don't think Trump counts as fascist on that one. He had the same view about North Korea last time around, so he's being pretty consistent on this: Find a beach, build a resort, consequences are for minions to worry about.

Yeah, Trump doesn't really consider the consequences to other people, it's not his problem. This is a great description of how he thinks,

consequences are for minions to worry about.

Or doesn't care to think about.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Yes, it would be ethnic cleansing, but I doubt he's thinking of it that way. He's never much cared who got hurt by his development ventures. He sees beachfront property and tries to figure out how to run it into bankruptcy.

[TysonLPrice]

It has only been a few weeks and look at the turmoil...buckle up!

[FunkyDexter]

I doubt he's thinking of it that way

I appreciate we're arguing semantics rather than substance but I don't believe how he thinks about it is relevant to whether or not he actually is it. Or maybe it is, if you view it purely as a political philosophy.

But I think it might be moot now, though I'm not sure. I though I overheard him walking it back on the news this morning and saying (something to the effect of) "not at this time". I just had a quick google, though, and couldn't find it it. Lots of references to his officials walking it back but nothing about him doing it so I may have misheard it.

[Shaggy Hiker]

He's walking up and walking back on pretty much everything.

[wes4dbt]

He's walking up and walking back on pretty much everything.

It must be a nightmare to work for Trump and having to find ways to cover up the insanely improper things he says.

[TysonLPrice]

He's walking up and walking back on pretty much everything.

The post office stopped handling small packages from China for a bit. The US ended a policy that allowed small packages worth $800 (£641) or less to be sent to America without paying taxes or fees. That created quite a mess. They "walked" it right back and the post office is delivering them now. But they are not giving up, they want that tariff money.

[Shaggy Hiker]

The post office stopped handling small packages from China for a bit.

That's almost against the AUP

[FunkyDexter]

I though I overheard him walking it back on the news this morning and saying (something to the effect of) "not at this time".

Seems like I was wrong about this because he clearly hasn't walked it back so I'm not sure what it was that I heard. His team have been back peddling faster than Lance Armstrong on some particularly effective steroids but it seems like the Big T is still all in. I'll put it down to my own affirmation bias from have watched him do the Hokey Kokey for the last two weeks.

[wes4dbt]

Seems like I was wrong about this because he clearly hasn't walked it back so I'm not sure what it was that I heard. His team have been back peddling faster than Lance Armstrong on some particularly effective steroids but it seems like the Big T is still all in. I'll put it down to my own affirmation bias from have watched him do the Hokey Kokey for the last two weeks.

Well, I've seen him dance at his rallies and he is a wonderful dancer.

The US is getting ready to send another 7 billion in weapons to Israel so they will be well stocked when they decide to start attacking Gaza again. It appears that Hamas is still in charge in Gaza so I don't see the the rebuilding of Gaza happening. Probably more destruction and increased suffering for the Palestinians to come.

[TysonLPrice]

Trump says if all the Israeli hostages are not released by Saturday Israel should unleash hell. How much worse are they going to make it? How about just gassing them all?

[wes4dbt]

It's to bad that most the US media/politicians continues to mainly frame the Gaza problem about the hostages and the terrible people that took them. What you rarely hear about is the 100's to 1,000's (I've never heard the number but has to be large because of the hundreds of Palestinians Israel has release in exchange for a few hostages) of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Many without any charges. Where are the stories about them and their families that want them back. Hostage and held in prison without charges, seems basically the same to me.