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Mar 13th, 2023, 12:21 PM
#41
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
That's surprising to hear. Over here there are plenty of safe vehicles that do. Don't get me wrong, it's not by much but they do by half percent or so at least. A basic savings account will, a pension will, an ISA... it's kinda the default here. I do wonder why we have that if you don't.
I wouldn't call any of these "investment vehicles" but they are good savings vehicles that you can use to keep yourself safe as you wind down into your twighlight.
Yeah, hardly any savings accounts are paying over 2% and a good CD rate is 4.5% and the 10yr Treasury bond is under 4%. Inflation is forecast at @ 6%. So your losing money, the only way to grow your money for the average investor is to gamble on the stock market..
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Mar 13th, 2023, 12:53 PM
#42
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by dday9
I would disagree with that. If you purchase a traditional whole life policy from a mutual company that has a history of paying regular dividends then you can get something that out performs inflation.
For example, here is a quote that I just got on a $250k 10 year pay (which means you only pay for 10 years and then the policy is paid up):
Year |
Premium |
Cash Value |
1 |
14,248 |
4,943 |
2 |
14,248 |
13,815 |
3 |
14,248 |
27,410 |
4 |
14,248 |
41,861 |
5 |
14,248 |
57,216 |
6 |
14,248 |
73,324 |
7 |
14,248 |
90,222 |
8 |
14,248 |
107,948 |
9 |
14,248 |
126,545 |
10 |
14,248 |
146,061 |
11 |
0 |
154,117 |
12 |
0 |
162,605 |
13 |
0 |
171,548 |
14 |
0 |
180,966 |
15 |
0 |
190,887 |
16 |
0 |
201,336 |
17 |
0 |
212,334 |
18 |
0 |
223,924 |
19 |
0 |
236,125 |
20 |
0 |
248,968 |
21 |
0 |
262,492 |
22 |
0 |
276,717 |
23 |
0 |
291,687 |
24 |
0 |
307,438 |
25 |
0 |
323,999 |
(not sure why but the last column header isn't showing up, but it is cash value)
Since I'm 31, at 56 I will have access to $323,999 in cash value to take a loan against if I wanted to.
The reason you pick a mutual company that pays dividends is because you can take a loan against the policy at around 7% and the pays dividends around 5-6%.
Then of course at the end of the day it is a life insurance policy and so it will pay out to your beneficiaries when you die and if you did take a loan against it then the death benefit would be subtracted from the loan.
There is also the benefit of not being taxed when you take a loan against the policy which, as Dil repeatedly stated, is something serious to consider when retiring.
I don't like the sound of this at all. I'm going to pay $142k so that in 25yrs I can borrow $320k. Which then I would have to pay back.
I not going to do the math, it's not a choice for me anyway. I don't have 25yrs.
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Mar 13th, 2023, 01:10 PM
#43
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
I didn't mention it in that post, but it only really works out if you get it while you are young. The whole point is that you can borrow against it and have the dividends pay most the interest.
Think of it as a way to leverage capital. If I put in $142k, borrow the full $320k to purchase a traditional investment (like real estate) then I can get a better deal because I can pay cash and have most of the repayments covered by the dividends and cover the rest from rent with money left over.
That’s just one plan, but it gives you the gist.
Edit - Also, just pointing out that to my original point it still beats inflation. $142k after 25 years would have the purchasing power of about $263k just plugging in inflation numbers from 1998 - 2023. In most cases it doesn't beat the stock market, but that is the primary trade off of contractually guaranteed money versus speculation.
Last edited by dday9; Mar 13th, 2023 at 01:37 PM.
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Mar 13th, 2023, 04:56 PM
#44
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by sapator
I'm not an economist but I think 50-60 billions would help to boost the US economy rather than spend to a black hole.
I'm sure you're well aware that this wasn't just money set on fire. Much of it flowed straight into pockets while a good deal is... invested toward future returns.
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Mar 13th, 2023, 05:04 PM
#45
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
I do but then we will start the "wheresyourproofwheresyouproof" and the tread will be rushed with trans fights and will be blocked
ἄνδρα μοι ἔννεπε, μοῦσα, πολύτροπον, ὃς μάλα πολλὰ
πλάγχθη, ἐπεὶ Τροίης ἱερὸν πτολίεθρον ἔπερσεν·
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Mar 14th, 2023, 11:14 AM
#46
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
50-60 billion in the US economy would have to be spent VERY carefully if you wanted to measure a boost. The US economy for 2022 was put at about $25.5 trillion by the Bureau of Economic Activity.
You might consider that the stimulus packages during COVID, which are often credited with causing the surge in inflation (though there can be plenty of debate on THAT topic, considering economists were predicting that inflation for about two decades prior to it actually happening), were around a couple trillion each. Therefore, 50-60 billion, while it sure seems like a lot, it isn't going to move the needle much in this country. The last of the stimulus checks cost about 15 times that much, so you'd probably have to spend up around 500 billion to have a short term, direct, impact on the economy.
My usual boring signature: Nothing
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Mar 14th, 2023, 12:13 PM
#47
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
You got to start somewhere.
It's like going on a diet and spend money on sweets.
ἄνδρα μοι ἔννεπε, μοῦσα, πολύτροπον, ὃς μάλα πολλὰ
πλάγχθη, ἐπεὶ Τροίης ἱερὸν πτολίεθρον ἔπερσεν·
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Mar 14th, 2023, 02:31 PM
#48
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
A lots of parts of the economy are in motion. Artificially inflating wages at the bottom of the economy has an inevitable impact, just as choosing to stay home in spite of the pandering has another. Mexico's descent deeper into a narco-state at the very time it should be cleaning house and building and rising to a better standard of living than ever is also problematic, fueled by rising tolerance of gateway drugs by the largest customer for its output.
There are lots and lots of related, partially related, and unrelated events occurring feeding failure right now. And not enough that push back against it.
Don't overlook demographic collapse around the world as well. There is still a lot of denial about this, claiming the problem is still years away. It isn't.
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Mar 14th, 2023, 03:07 PM
#49
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by sapator
You got to start somewhere.
It's like going on a diet and spend money on sweets.
Good diet!
My usual boring signature: Nothing
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Mar 15th, 2023, 06:51 AM
#50
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Thank goodness there are people that can see through the BS and state what really happened:
Republicans and conservative influencers have settled on their reason for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
It wasn’t the 2018 repeal of stricter regulations on regional banks, passed on a bipartisan basis and signed into law by former President Donald Trump. It wasn’t a bank run triggered by nervous venture capitalists and start-up founders. It wasn’t even interest rates hiked by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation.
Conservatives have instead united around blaming “wokeness” for the bank’s collapse, arguing without evidence that the existence of diversity, equity and inclusion programs led to mismanagement.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/repub...b0bc5cb64c4747
Please remember next time...elections matter!
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Mar 15th, 2023, 06:58 AM
#51
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Right.
Heeerrree...weeeee......Go here we go here we go, here we go here we go here we goo, here we go here we go here wego, here we go, here.we.go.
ἄνδρα μοι ἔννεπε, μοῦσα, πολύτροπον, ὃς μάλα πολλὰ
πλάγχθη, ἐπεὶ Τροίης ἱερὸν πτολίεθρον ἔπερσεν·
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Mar 15th, 2023, 07:18 AM
#52
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
It sounds like the bank bailout got squashed but the FDIC has been told to rob Peter to make fatcat customers "whole" despite their being uninsured over $250K.
In an extraordinary action to restore confidence in America’s banking system, the Biden administration on Sunday guaranteed that customers of the failed Silicon Valley Bank will have access to all their money starting Monday.
In a related action, the government shut down Signature Bank, a regional bank that was teetering on the brink of collapse in recent days. Signature’s customers will receive a similar deal, ensuring that even uninsured deposits will be returned to them Monday.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/12/inves...out/index.html
Some animals are more equal than others.
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Mar 15th, 2023, 07:36 AM
#53
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by dilettante
They didn't want people with over that limit making a run on the bank to get all they could and thereby creating a bigger run.
Please remember next time...elections matter!
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Mar 15th, 2023, 08:05 AM
#54
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by dilettante
Originally Posted by TysonLPrice
They didn't want people with over that limit making a run on the bank to get all they could and thereby creating a bigger run.
I think it's more about making sure that companies can make their payrolls so that the workers aren't affected.
I think I read somewhere that roughly 40% of all current startups was running their payroll through SVB.
-tg
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Mar 15th, 2023, 08:23 AM
#55
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Naturally Republicans blame wokeness for the bank collapse, that makes sense politically.
What are the Democrats blaming? In 2008 it was "radical deregulation", which was just like the "wokeness" drum being beat by the Republicans today, but I haven't really heard that out of the Democrat camp.
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Mar 15th, 2023, 08:26 AM
#56
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Also, no joke, but the Chief Administrative Officer of SVB was the Chief Financial Officer of Lehman Brother's in 2007: https://www.svbsecurities.com/team/joseph-gentile/
Imagine being the guy who kicked off not one major recession in America, but possibly a second within 16 years.
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Mar 15th, 2023, 08:26 AM
#57
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by techgnome
I think it's more about making sure that companies can make their payrolls so that the workers aren't affected.
I think I read somewhere that roughly 40% of all current startups was running their payroll through SVB.
-tg
I think it is more along the lines of what I posted although maybe tied together.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/svb...c-fed-db7cfda0
The concern was a major run more than making payroll.
Please remember next time...elections matter!
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Mar 15th, 2023, 09:25 AM
#58
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Some animals are more equal than others.
I don't have a huge problem with securing the losses of depositors. We don't want a system where people start thinking the best place for their money is under the mattress. What they're not doing (which they did last time) was securing the losses of the banks themselves - i.e. the investors. I think that's what really left a bitter taste in peoples mouths last time.
Naturally Republicans blame wokeness for the bank collapse, that makes sense politically.
It does seem like a weird logical leap though
What are the Democrats blaming? In 2008 it was "radical deregulation"
Same this time. Specifically Trump removing the need for medium size banks (assets of between 100bn and 250bn, SVB had 209) to retain liquidity sufficient to pass stress tests that would have identified they would be at risk if interests rates went up. I honestly don't know enough to lay the blame completely at that door but it does seem more credible than "wokeness".
Of course, the follow on question would be "who was responsible for the rise in interest rates?" which would be the Democrats I guess.
And there's also a whiffy smell of corruption around this as the owners of the bank all started dumping their stock immediately before the run.
the Chief Administrative Officer of SVB was the Chief Financial Officer of Lehman Brother's in 2007
I mean... just... I... it beggars belief doesn't it.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
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Mar 15th, 2023, 09:47 AM
#59
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Yeah, I mean it is definitely a house of cards.
My understanding of this was that SVB had too much invested in bonds. Once interest rates started going up they had to sell the bonds to maintain good standing. Then once it wasn't enough they had to start selling stock. Then customers didn't want to be in one of the only banks selling stock to stay in good standing and so the run on the bank happened.
If you look at it from a high level, why in the world would a bank be investing heavily in bonds in a zero/low interest environment?
Of course, the follow on question would be "who was responsible for the rise in interest rates?" which would be the Democrats I guess.
I definitely do not lay all the blame on the Democrats. Remember it was Trump who signed the first round of stimulus in 2020 to the tune of $2,200,000,000,000. And when was the last time anyone in power wanted to curb spending? Certainly never in my lifetime.
Last edited by dday9; Mar 15th, 2023 at 09:53 AM.
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Mar 15th, 2023, 10:12 AM
#60
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
why in the world would a bank be investing heavily in bonds
If you're a gambler the bet is always worth making. That's the problem (and also the strength) of the current banking model. Holding liquidity is a lost opportunity to grow those funds so it's always worth investing... until it isn't. Flip side, if they don't invest, small start ups don't get funded.
Remember it was Trump who signed the first round of stimulus in 2020
Yep, but I don't really blame Trump for that either (much as I'd love to). Covid made stimulus packages necessary unless you want people to starve. There have been so many systemic shocks to the world economy over the last 10 years that there simply haven't been "right" choices. We all think of Covid and Ukraine but let's not forget: Chinese construction crash, the Suez canal being blocked for over a month, aging populations as boomers retire, the rise and fall of crypto currencies, Brexit, Liz Truss being outlasted by a lettuce...
No world leader can properly plan for all that and everyone's really just trying to mitigate impact as best they can
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
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Mar 15th, 2023, 10:20 AM
#61
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Liz Truss being outlasted by a lettuce...
I legitimately laughed out loud at this comment. Reason 8,255 why you should be able to rep in chit-chat.
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Mar 15th, 2023, 10:34 AM
#62
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by dilettante
Yeah, that annoyed me, too. On the other hand, the entire banking system is based on trust. If you put money in a bank, it's not just sitting in a vault somewhere. The money you deposit is used for loans and the like. There is no bank in the world that will survive if enough people try to pull their money out simultaneously. Therefore, if people lose faith, the cascade of failures begins.
In this case, the fat cats were unusually capable of squawking on social media, and they did. I don't really blame them for not wanting to lose out, but it does go to show how well greased the squeaky wheel can become, even when it has most of the grease to begin with.
My usual boring signature: Nothing
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Mar 15th, 2023, 10:41 AM
#63
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Lettuce all agree that some vegetables are the root of all our problems.
Whoever came up with comparing Liz to a head of lettuce should get an award. That was the funniest thing since Boaty McBoatface, which has become something of a theme.
Overall, I'd say that this situation has been handled pretty well. The bank managers should take a lashing, but they technically only did something unwise, not something criminal....except for the bit about shedding their own stock ahead of the default, which could end up being criminal.
My usual boring signature: Nothing
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Mar 15th, 2023, 10:48 AM
#64
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
That reminded me of our previous prime idiot and party dogs traitors on the 2014-15 crisis.
They first threaten to go off Euro zone, they made a referendum, we said YES!YES!YES! and....they backed up with their tail between their legs, making the yes to no (that is high treason equals to life in prison but who cares, they own the judicial system).
At the same time our European , born out of a 24+1 lettuce black adder, friends decided to brake our banks and we where only allowed 20$ per bank (I had 3-4 banks so 60$+ for me!Yeeehaaa!!), trying to terrorize us so we can vote no to the referendum. We gave them the finger, our traitors gave it back. They haven't paid since then with imprisonment.
ἄνδρα μοι ἔννεπε, μοῦσα, πολύτροπον, ὃς μάλα πολλὰ
πλάγχθη, ἐπεὶ Τροίης ἱερὸν πτολίεθρον ἔπερσεν·
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Mar 15th, 2023, 01:00 PM
#65
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
They were probably right to do so. Leaving the EU has been such a benefit to the UK that a majority now think it was a mistake. I would expect that the Greek economy is even more tied into the EU than the British economy.
My usual boring signature: Nothing
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Mar 15th, 2023, 01:17 PM
#66
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
It might have very little to do with Reps/Dems and much more to do with the FED. "Quantitative Easing" was one of there little tricks, then there's almost zero interest rate. They pumped trillions into the economy. With the best of intentions.
Well, I guess it does come down to the politicians, they should have been legislating ways to recovery from the 2008 collapse. Instead they were just spent their time blaming each other. So the FED takes on the role of driving the recovery. Which isn't it's job.
Last edited by wes4dbt; Mar 15th, 2023 at 02:15 PM.
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Mar 15th, 2023, 02:02 PM
#67
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
They were probably right to do so. Leaving the EU has been such a benefit to the UK that a majority now think it was a mistake. I would expect that the Greek economy is even more tied into the EU than the British economy.
I think at first they had some Greek (I don't know the term) bonds on bons tied to the other EU banks and where slowly getting rid of them, will the excuse of a crisis.
ἄνδρα μοι ἔννεπε, μοῦσα, πολύτροπον, ὃς μάλα πολλὰ
πλάγχθη, ἐπεὶ Τροίης ἱερὸν πτολίεθρον ἔπερσεν·
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Mar 15th, 2023, 03:04 PM
#68
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
Lettuce all agree that some vegetables are the root of all our problems.
Whoever came up with comparing Liz to a head of lettuce should get an award. That was the funniest thing since Boaty McBoatface, which has become something of a theme.
Overall, I'd say that this situation has been handled pretty well. The bank managers should take a lashing, but they technically only did something unwise, not something criminal....except for the bit about shedding their own stock ahead of the default, which could end up being criminal.
You beet me to all the puns...I'll just watch TV and veg out and be a couch potato. That may sound corny but I'm tired and need to hit the hay. Streched it on that one.
Last edited by TysonLPrice; Mar 15th, 2023 at 03:14 PM.
Please remember next time...elections matter!
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Mar 15th, 2023, 05:08 PM
#69
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
So there is a lot of fuss in Europe about an upcoming crisis. Also I think a Swiss bank is going belly up.
It may well be the fact the the last time US had a crisis, Europe paid and then they fluttered all the problems to Greece...But the is no Greece with bond banks this time. So I wonder where will they flush the problems....
ἄνδρα μοι ἔννεπε, μοῦσα, πολύτροπον, ὃς μάλα πολλὰ
πλάγχθη, ἐπεὶ Τροίης ἱερὸν πτολίεθρον ἔπερσεν·
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Mar 16th, 2023, 04:48 AM
#70
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Yep...the republicans nailed the cause of the whole thing:
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) called SVB “one of the most woke banks” because of its “ESG-type” policies — a reference to environmental, social and corporate governance-driven investing that has been embraced by billion-dollar asset managers and scorned by conservatives of late.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, widely believed to be gearing up for a 2024 GOP presidential bid, said Sunday that Silicon Valley Bank’s diversity, equity and inclusion requirements “diverted from them focusing on their core mission.” And on Monday, Fox News host Tucker Carlson said diversity and inclusion standards are why “big banks are now increasingly incompetent.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...oke-investing/
And they just can't stop themselves:
“This bank, they’re so concerned with DEI and politics and all kinds of stuff, I think that really diverted from them focusing on their core mission,” the Florida governor Ron DeSantis told Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo.
And according to Donald Trump, Jr: “SVB is what happens when you push a leftist/woke ideology and have that take precedent over common sense business practices. This won’t be the last failure of this nature so long as people are rewarded for pushing this bs.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...blame-wokeness
Please remember next time...elections matter!
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Mar 16th, 2023, 05:36 AM
#71
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Lettuce all agree that some vegetables are the root of all our problems
The worry is that this is just the tip of the iceberg lettuce
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) called SVB “one of the most woke banks”
Gotta love those left wing, socialist banks
Last edited by FunkyDexter; Mar 16th, 2023 at 05:49 AM.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
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Mar 16th, 2023, 05:59 AM
#72
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
The worry is that this is just the tip of the iceberg lettuce
Gotta love those left wing, socialist banks
Comer "because of its “ESG-type” policies — a reference to environmental, social and corporate governance-driven investing that has been embraced by billion-dollar asset managers and scorned by conservatives of late".
ESG has been around for decades...if a large fund is heavily invested in sea shore property, and we know sea level is rising and will inundate low lying coastal property, maybe a long term goal would be to divest before it happens. Other then republicans the rest of the world acknowledges global warming and part of ESG is considering that.
Please remember next time...elections matter!
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Mar 18th, 2023, 05:51 AM
#73
Re: Silicon Valley Bank Collapses in Biggest Failure Since 2008
Oh the irony...
SVB touted by Forbes on 2023 America’s Best Banks list last month
https://nypost.com/2023/03/14/forbes...fore-collapse/
Please remember next time...elections matter!
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