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Thread: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

  1. #161
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Oh per sure.
    I'm not sure why some we go about saying the treaty will kick in.The perfect respectful agreement world that you though to be true, isn't.
    We have seen that with Greek - Turkey situations when they responded by giving both members, advice.
    They only time they will respond is if their own interests are at stake, err, that is US not gullible Europe. And at that point they won't care if a country is on NATO or not.
    Also they will first measure their opponents so China,Russia,India etc are a non go.
    Or OK, you might be right and they will attack Russia. So bye bye world. I've lived happily enough, did you (that is plural)?
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  2. #162
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Zvoni View Post
    So, you would make like a Turkey? .. --> "Get stuffed"...
    Yes sir!
    I've already stuffed Funky once but he seemed to like it...Errr I was also stuffed that day.
    The thing is we where planing a meat loaf stuffation and we didn't so we have to settle that!
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  3. #163
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    I'm missing your point...none of the countries you listed are are members of NATO? If Russia attacks a NATO member it invokes article V meaning NATO unites and fights back. Maybe you are thinking of OPEC
    My point is you don't have to be a member of NATO to get support from NATO troops. Like I said, being a NATO member isn't the deciding factor.

  4. #164

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    My point is you don't have to be a member of NATO to get support from NATO troops. Like I said, being a NATO member isn't the deciding factor.
    When it comes to article V it absolutely does...
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    In a dramatic escalation of East-West tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces put on high alert Sunday in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers.

    The order means Putin has ordered Russia’s nuclear weapons prepared for increased readiness to launch, raising the threat that the tensions could boil over into nuclear warfare. In giving it, the Russian leader also cited hard-hitting financial sanctions imposed by the West against Russia, including Putin himself.
    https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/nat...arkiv/2881473/

    Last time I brought up Putin using nuclear weapons it was kind of poo pooed...I think he has proven already he is willing to kill large numbers of people. I'm looking for a low yield explosion.
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  6. #166
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    That's insane. Russia wants the territory, why nuke it?

    Russia’s Twilight War

    For those of you who have read my second book, The Absent Superpower, recent events in Ukraine should not come as a surprise. Chapter 6, The Twilight War, lays out how Russian geography and demographic realities would dictate Russian aggression in its immediate periphery. This is not a justification of Moscow’s aggression against its neighbor, but international watchers should not be feigning surprise. Nor should the current invasion of Ukraine be seen as a result of madness or a personal vendetta of Russian president Vladimir Putin; Russian leaders have viewed control of Ukraine, the Crimean Peninsula and access to the Black Sea as vital to the security of Russia and Russian interests for centuries.
    Securing Ukraine is in no way the final step, but rather the necessary launching pad (along with Belarus) to securing the Baltic states and eastern Poland. I might have apologized for seeming alarmist before today’s events, but I think the last several weeks have shown the lack the lack of empathetic understanding on the West’s behalf of Russia and how it perceives its neighborhood and its future. The Russians do not see the Ukraine War as a war of aggression, or Putin’s egoistical quest for Soviet glory. Expect the Russians to fight as if their lives depend on the victory. In their minds, that’s precisely what’s on the line.
    The lights are dimming all across Europe and Asia.

  7. #167
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I don't believe Putin would go nuclear for any reason, even straight up losing in Ukraine. The price to be paid is way too high. I'm not talking about direct, nuclear, retaliation, either. That's a genii nobody has been willing to let out of the bottle since Nagasaki. We might have been willing for a decade or so after WW II, but as the consequence of going nuclear has become more clear, nobody has been willing to use one, even against opponents that can't respond in kind.

    I feel that's a line that nobody wants to be the first to cross.

    At this point, it feels to me like Russia is losing in Ukraine. They aren't losing tactically, they are losing strategically, and know it. Tactically, they can beat Ukraine given enough time. I just think they felt they could beat Ukraine in a day or two and get around to dictating the peace. The stronger the resistance, the more they realize that Ukraine really isn't going to cave in and docilly return to the embrace of mother Russia. That means that ultimate victory will be much less of a prize than they had first hoped, and the cost of that prize will be far higher than they had anticipated.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    That means that ultimate victory will be much less of a prize than they had first hoped, and the cost of that prize will be far higher than they had anticipated.
    How so?

    Russia is between a quick death and a slower death. It is hard to see why they'd choose to go quickly. And Ukraine is just one p[iece of the puzzle they need to slow their end hoping for something unforseen that might save them in the end.

    Robots? Monkey butlers? I'm not sure how they hope to cope with demographic collapse, even given a decade for it to happen instead of a handful of years as they face now.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    But now they won't get either the robots or the monkey butlers.

    Still, that's a fair point. If they feel that this lurch had a chance of staving off an otherwise inevitable demise, it would make sense. It seems more likely to hasten that demise, to me, at this point. We'll see what happens, though.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I am not justifying Russia's actions against Ukraine, rather I am simply trying explain why Putin is reacting in the way he is.

    In 1990, George H.W. Bush promised the USSR (on the heels of it's dissolution) that "there would be no extension of NATO's jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east." Then under the Clinton administration, NATO admitted the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. Then in 2004, NATO under the Bush administration, admitted Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Then in 2009, NATO under the Obama administration, admitted Albania and Croatia. Then in 2017 and 2020, NATO under the Trump administration (you remember the guy "opposed" to NATO) admitted Montenegro and North Macedonia respectively. Finally there were the US led coups to arm literal neo-nazis in 2013 and 2014.

    All of this, combined with talks of arming Ukraine and bringing Ukraine into NATO, Russia did not bring the fight up to NATO's doorstep as Hilary Clinton suggested. Rather NATO was pushed so far East that it literally borders Russia.

    I think what we are seeing is a foreign policy failure 30 years in the making coming to fruition. These military war pacts pose a serious danger to the stability of Europe and the west at large.

    So now what should the world do? Allow Ukraine to be attacked by Russia or arm them and possibly send in troops to defend them which escalates the serious threat of nuclear war?

    This is an incredible failure on all fronts. The west should be ashamed of its foreign policy failure and Putin should be ashamed of invading a free(ish) country.
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  11. #171
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    I don't believe Putin would go nuclear for any reason, even straight up losing in Ukraine. The price to be paid is way too high. I'm not talking about direct, nuclear, retaliation, either. That's a genii nobody has been willing to let out of the bottle since Nagasaki. We might have been willing for a decade or so after WW II, but as the consequence of going nuclear has become more clear, nobody has been willing to use one, even against opponents that can't respond in kind.

    I feel that's a line that nobody wants to be the first to cross.

    At this point, it feels to me like Russia is losing in Ukraine. They aren't losing tactically, they are losing strategically, and know it. Tactically, they can beat Ukraine given enough time. I just think they felt they could beat Ukraine in a day or two and get around to dictating the peace. The stronger the resistance, the more they realize that Ukraine really isn't going to cave in and docilly return to the embrace of mother Russia. That means that ultimate victory will be much less of a prize than they had first hoped, and the cost of that prize will be far higher than they had anticipated.
    Logically your right but your not dealing with a logical person. Putin has set himself a part from the Russian people, he's an egomaniac dictator that everyone fears. And for good reason. I'd say it's possible he would set the world on fire if he was being dethroned. If he can't have it, then no one can.

    But I don't think this situation rises to that level. He will take over Ukraine, he will just continue to raise the level of force. And the US, EU or NATO are not willing to do what it would take to stop it. The Ukrainians are being very brave unfortunately that just means more death and destruction for them. It's just sad.

  12. #172
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    When it comes to article V it absolutely does...
    I think you and Wes are in danger of aggressively agreeing with each other, you're just using slightly different language. Article 5 specifies that NATO members will respond when a member is attacked, it does not specify that they won't respond when a non member is attacked which is what I think Wes is driving at.

    There's nothing in the NATO articles AFAIK that either mandates or precludes any response when a non member is attacked, it's simply not mentioned because NATO was originally conceived as a defensive alliance. Until now it's been unlikely that NATO itself would respond because any response would have been done under the auspices of the UN, which is what happened in Iraq, Afghanistan etc. Since the UN effectively subsumes the NATO nations that effectively serves the same purpose. However with Russia using it's veto to behave as a bad actor in the UN and being an active aggressor, it's not inconceivable that the members of NATO would simply fall back on the NATO framework to justify and oversee a response.

    I am not justifying Russia's actions against Ukraine
    I'm sympathetic to Russia's strategic situation and mentioned the history of this earlier in the thread. However, what we're dealing with is the situation on the ground now and how we got here doesn't really play into how we should respond. The situation now is that an autocratic aggressor has invaded a democratic neighbour who previously supported US conflicts when others wouldn't and who's borders the UK and the USA guaranteed under the Budapest Memorandum. The aggressor has put it's strategic nuclear capability on standby and demanded that all it's other neighbours disarm themselves. If you don't think that's a situation that needs to be resisted, what's the bar that would need to be cleared?

    And let's be clear, the current strategic situation only represents a threat to Putin because he's an expansionist autocrat. If Russia moved to an open democratic system and stopped salami slicing it's neighbours, far from competing with NATO, we'd welcome them in with open arms, we'd invite them to join. Incidentally, I think this is the great failing of foreign policy over the last 30 years. It's not that we successfully exported democracy Eastward, it's that we failed to support it in Russia in it's attempts to democratise when we had the chance in the 90s. Putin is a result of that failure.

    I don't believe Putin would go nuclear for any reason
    I'm no longer convinced. A week ago I'd have agreed with you but the last week has demonstrated that we're not dealing with a rational actor here. I'm not just talking about the invasion, I'm talking about the rhetoric. It increasingly looks to me like he has a messiah complex. He wants to restore Russia to it's former glory and, in his mind, glory looks like military domination of Eastern Europe. I think his going nuclear is unlikely, but I'm sure as hell not ruling it out.



    Anyway, hats off to the Ukrainians. They're currently dishing out Stone Cold Steve Austin levels of ass kicking against what should be overwhelming odds. I fear they won't be able to hold out militarily for much longer (particular when that 5km convoy hit Kiev) but there's no way Putin's holding anything he's taken when it goes asymmetric. He's bought himself a quagmire.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Feb 28th, 2022 at 05:10 AM.
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  13. #173
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I'm no longer convinced. A week ago I'd have agreed with you but the last week has demonstrated that we're not dealing with a rational actor here. I'm not just talking about the invasion, I'm talking about the rhetoric. It increasingly looks to me like he has a messiah complex. He wants to restore Russia to it's former glory and, in his mind, glory looks like military domination of Eastern Europe. I think his going nuclear is unlikely, but I'm sure as hell not ruling it out.
    Putin's recent rhetoric on putting his military nuclear deterrence forces on high alert is at this point is just sabre rattling. I am still not convinced he would ever actually consider using them, but if he did try during an unnecessary war he started, it's highly likely his generals would stage a coup and remove him, you dont have to look to far back in Russian history to see examples of coups for lesser reasons.

    Starting a Nuclear war is insane and even if Putin was crazy enough to think otherwise, I find it hard to believe he would have the support of his government and military to actually do it.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I'm not as confident as some others here that Putin would not use nuclear weapons. He has already published papers they can be used tactically. He is quoted as saying:

    “If someone decides to destroy Russia, we have the legal right to respond. Yes, it will be a catastrophe for humanity and for the world. But I am a citizen of Russia and its head of state. Why do we need a world without Russia in it?”
    Suppose he nukes a large naval base with a low yield bomb? Do you think the US will rain down a nuclear retaliation? Maybe just one to say "don't do it again"? One or two bombs might not start a nuclear war.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Feb 28th, 2022 at 06:56 AM.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I'm not as confident as some others here that Putin would not use nuclear weapons. He has already published papers they can be used tactically. He is quoted as saying:
    If someone decides to destroy Russia, we have the legal right to respond.
    Responding to an attack is a little different to striking first, and even if you think Putin is capable of the mental gymnastics required to turn resistance to there military aggression into attacking Russia, he will find it very difficult to take his Cabinet and Generals with him to a Nuclear response.

    Suppose he nukes a large naval base with a low yield bomb? Do you think the US will rain down a nuclear retaliation? Maybe just one to say "don't do it again"? One or two bombs might not start a nuclear war.
    A Nuclear bomb is a Nuclear Bomb even a small one. Its possible a directed Bomb doesn't start a Nuclear war, but it would be the end of Putin, there would no longer be sanctions but a complete cut off of Russia from the Global economy.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    it's highly likely his generals would stage a coup and remove him
    Actually, that's probably true. I think Putin has gone full blown nut bar but I doubt he's taken his generals with him. Still, it'd be hard for them not to toe the line if he starts "small" with a tactical nuclear weapon.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Responding to an attack is a little different to striking first, and even if you think Putin is capable of the mental gymnastics required to turn resistance to there military aggression into attacking Russia, he will find it very difficult to take his Cabinet and Generals with him to a Nuclear response.
    He just dragged everyone you mentioned into a war that is going to cripple Russia for decades and you think that they are going to stop him from taking another step. albeit a BIG one. I don't think applying normal common sense to this man or putting faith in his minions rebelling can rule out an atomic strike. I may well be the end of him but if he is in a "Scorched Earth" mindset he may want to drag the world down with him. "Is Paris Burning Hitler screamed"? Although in that case "calmer" minds prevailed.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Feb 28th, 2022 at 11:22 AM.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Yeah, I do think they'd stop him from taking that big step. I'd guess that the generals spanned all positions when it came to Ukraine. Some probably expected a cakewalk, some expected a quagmire, they all hashed it out and let Putin decide. When it comes to nukes, the question is whether the response would be bad or worse.

    What's the point of using a small nuke against a single target? Is that target so impossible that it can't be cracked with conventional forces? No, there's no such thing, so what's the point? The point would be to send a message, and that message is going to get a response. The only question is how bad that response would be. Russia lacks the means to wage even a good arms race. They can wage an all out nuclear war and get a pyrrhic draw, but they have no realistic chance of winning ANY other scenario that involves nukes.

    After all, what would it say if there is no response? It would say that it's okay to use one or two to achieve your goal. Once that genii has been released, who will be next? I'd note that Iran has some nuclear facilities that could most easily be breached by a nuclear weapon, and Israel has some and would like to stop Iranian progress. Then there's the Korean peninsula, where a couple different sides have something to be gained from a limited exchange. There's also India/Pakistan, or more remotely, India/China.

    More likely, all parties would realize that they are better off making it clear that nukes are not acceptable. Therefore, I would expect that a single use would either result in a total exchange or the isolation of Russia by EVERY neighbor it has, including China and Iran, both of whom would see that a crushing economic response is better than any other option.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Starting a Nuclear war is insane and even if Putin was crazy enough to think otherwise, I find it hard to believe he would have the support of his government and military to actually do it.
    Yeah, it is insane but we don't really know his mental condition. Everything I've been hearing is he has isolated himself, the government and military are afraid of him. Ever seen those huge tables where the generals have to sit 20 feet away. He is not asking for support. Would the people revolt, questionable. Stalin stayed in power till he died.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    So all this talk and debate about the possible use of nuclear weapons got me to thinking and wondering ... so I checked ... the Doomsday Clock has been updated .... 100 seconds before midnight.
    On January 23, 2020, the Clock was moved further, to 100 seconds (1 minute 40 seconds) before midnight, meaning that the Clock's status today is the closest to midnight since the Clock's start in 1947.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock

    This is the closest it's ever been.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by techgnome View Post
    So all this talk and debate about the possible use of nuclear weapons got me to thinking and wondering ... so I checked ... the Doomsday Clock has been updated .... 100 seconds before midnight.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock

    This is the closest it's ever been.

    -tg
    Well that doesn't make me feel any better. lol

    I don't think the situation warrants any major concern at this point. But people like Putin are scary, they have no real boundaries and no moral compass. Plus the people around him have reached to point of only telling him what he wants to hear.

    At least that's my impression (yes I do impressions). But I only know what I see and read in the news, I'm no expert on the subject.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Yeah, I do think they'd stop him from taking that big step. I'd guess that the generals spanned all positions when it came to Ukraine. Some probably expected a cakewalk, some expected a quagmire, they all hashed it out and let Putin decide. When it comes to nukes, the question is whether the response would be bad or worse.

    What's the point of using a small nuke against a single target? Is that target so impossible that it can't be cracked with conventional forces? No, there's no such thing, so what's the point? The point would be to send a message, and that message is going to get a response. The only question is how bad that response would be. Russia lacks the means to wage even a good arms race. They can wage an all out nuclear war and get a pyrrhic draw, but they have no realistic chance of winning ANY other scenario that involves nukes.

    After all, what would it say if there is no response? It would say that it's okay to use one or two to achieve your goal. Once that genii has been released, who will be next? I'd note that Iran has some nuclear facilities that could most easily be breached by a nuclear weapon, and Israel has some and would like to stop Iranian progress. Then there's the Korean peninsula, where a couple different sides have something to be gained from a limited exchange. There's also India/Pakistan, or more remotely, India/China.

    More likely, all parties would realize that they are better off making it clear that nukes are not acceptable. Therefore, I would expect that a single use would either result in a total exchange or the isolation of Russia by EVERY neighbor it has, including China and Iran, both of whom would see that a crushing economic response is better than any other option.
    That is articulate and thoughtful, as usual. Where a have to disagree, is you seem to be relying on conventional "normal" thinking, that Putin will follow the norms and if he doesn't those around him will not follow him. I don't think that is necessarily true. Look at what Hitler's generals did. That also assumes that Putin can only launch from some kind of single point of contact or contacts. I don't know either way but there may be a path he could launch from a submarine, air, etc. I just don't have your confidence.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    That's always a risk.

    I read a book a while back about why Russia went into Afghanistan. Basically, Brezhnev was going senile, everyone knew it, but he was still in charge, so they were trying to figure out what a mind falling into senility was thinking. The result was misery for a whole lot of people for a very long time....which is still going on today.

    I don't think Putin is going senile, but he may well be surrounded by people who are telling him only a version of what's happening. Still, he's always been a bit of a craftsman. I still don't believe he'll go there. Of course, I also note that I REALLY don't WANT to believe that he's going to go there.

    Not like I can do anything about it, though.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I'm far more concerned about the armchair saber rattlers. Neoliberal militarism is a terrible thing, but as globalism fades their response to a normalizing world gets pretty volatile. That's dangerous enough in itself, but it also emboldens other factions. For example our actual military forces are seeing a need and opportunity to become "political stakeholders" within the system for the first time in nearly 100 years.

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    Last edited by dilettante; Feb 28th, 2022 at 04:30 PM.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    That's always a risk.

    I read a book a while back about why Russia went into Afghanistan. Basically, Brezhnev was going senile, everyone knew it, but he was still in charge, so they were trying to figure out what a mind falling into senility was thinking. The result was misery for a whole lot of people for a very long time....which is still going on today.

    I don't think Putin is going senile, but he may well be surrounded by people who are telling him only a version of what's happening. Still, he's always been a bit of a craftsman. I still don't believe he'll go there. Of course, I also note that I REALLY don't WANT to believe that he's going to go there.

    Not like I can do anything about it, though.
    I really hope I'm wrong...

    I feel more and more like I am in a WW III history moment. This is so very critical. I tend to agree Putin does not want nuclear winter and the Russian "hierarchy" knows nobody wins.

    This is how easy it is:

    https://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/the...ear%20disaster.

    I'm seeing more doubling down by Putin and more unity from the "world". I can see diplomacy having a chance but only with Russia halting all hostilities and withdrawing. That probably isn't on the menu.

    History is in the making, but I guess that is my keen sense of the obvious...history is ALWAYS is the making
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    OMG - What about the freedom truckers
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    That's always a risk.

    I read a book a while back about why Russia went into Afghanistan. Basically, Brezhnev was going senile, everyone knew it, but he was still in charge, so they were trying to figure out what a mind falling into senility was thinking. The result was misery for a whole lot of people for a very long time....which is still going on today.

    I don't think Putin is going senile, but he may well be surrounded by people who are telling him only a version of what's happening. Still, he's always been a bit of a craftsman. I still don't believe he'll go there. Of course, I also note that I REALLY don't WANT to believe that he's going to go there.

    Not like I can do anything about it, though.
    OK...let's go back a year or so in this country...the current president was denying he lost the election, organized a group of politicians to support false claims he lost the election, and organized a insurrection to disrupt the peaceful transition of power that stormed the capital. During that period Speaker Pelosi reportedly contacted generals asking if nuclear weapons were secure. Trump was watching with glee as the capital was stormed. Maybe this is Putin's Trump moment!!
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  28. #188
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    62 percent of voters say Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if Trump were president: poll

    A majority of American voters say that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not have invaded Ukraine had former President Trump still been in office, according to a new survey released on Friday.

    A new Harvard Center for American Political Studies (CAPS)-Harris Poll survey released Friday found that 62 percent of those polled believed Putin would not be moving against Ukraine if Trump had been president. When looking strictly at the answers of Democrats and Republicans, 85 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats answered this way.
    Seems unlikely to me, but there you have it.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Sunds like Canadians are running out of their immigrant servant class as well. More robots and monkey butlers I guess, eh?


  30. #190
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by techgnome View Post
    So all this talk and debate about the possible use of nuclear weapons got me to thinking and wondering ... so I checked ... the Doomsday Clock has been updated .... 100 seconds before midnight.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock

    This is the closest it's ever been.

    -tg
    Even Iron Maiden weren't that pessimistic.
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  31. #191

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    That is a real statement about Americans. Completely fooled by a narcissistic mad man. And they are actually proud of it. I suppose I drink the Kool-Aid too, just a different flavor. I'm glad I can see Trump for what he is and don't swallow his "Kool-Aid" though. It amazes me that anyone at all, with any sense at all, can support that man. The only justification I can see, if you call it justification, is they hate democrats to the point slime is OK.

    How moronic can people be? Trump tried to extort Ukraine by denying defensive weapons unless they made up lies about Biden's son to help Trump's reelection. He was impeached for it
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Mar 1st, 2022 at 05:20 AM.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    And Obama was famously caught on a hot mic telling Dmitry Medvedev "after my election I will have more flexibility."

    Can't we just agree that both parties are terrible and that both parties are responsible for the US' role in the current Ukraine situation?
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by dday9 View Post
    And Obama was famously caught on a hot mic telling Dmitry Medvedev "after my election I will have more flexibility."

    Can't we just agree that both parties are terrible and that both parties are responsible for the US' role in the current Ukraine situation?
    I absolutely would agree with that. I was addressing the comment "62 percent of voters say Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if Trump were president". I'm saying "How moronic can people be? Trump tried to extort Ukraine by denying defensive weapons unless they made up lies about Biden's son to help Trump's reelection. He was impeached for it".

    If that isn't the most egregious act of any recent American president regarding Ukraine I don't know what is. Maybe that's why they say "Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if Trump were president". He could have walked in.

    That's make me think Putin should have invaded when Trump was president. He would not have rallied NATO or fought for sanctions. He already praised how smart Putin is for doing it. It may have been Putin was waiting to see who won the election. If Trump would have won he would have handed Ukraine over to Putin.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Mar 1st, 2022 at 12:25 PM.
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  34. #194
    Super Moderator dday9's Avatar
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Yeah, that poll doesn’t hold any weight to me. It’s not provable, just speculation.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I don't believe a Trump presidency would have made any difference to Putin's decision but would likely have changed the West's response. I actually believe that Putin's timing has been driven by two things:-
    1. China guaranteed Russia's Eastern border in 2004. This coincides with increasing Russian expansionism in the West, starting with Georgia and steadily increasing from there. At each step he's seen zero push back and has been emboldened as a result. Receiving no push back from annexing the Crimea, in particular, left him convinced that he could basically do whatever he liked outside of NATO because the West had no teeth.
    2. The withdrawal from Afghanistan. This sent a very strong signal that the US had turned isolationist and would not be interested in actions he took in Europe. Combines with the lack of push back detailed above he took a pretty clear message. Incidentally, I reckon Taiwan can measure it's remaining liberty at less than a year - two at the outside.

    I've got to say that, although we've put some pretty serious sanctions in place, we're still sending him the same message (we being everyone except Ukraine itself). If he succeeds in taking Ukraine he will be eying up the Baltic states. We're sending the message that we're so scared of his level of crazy that we actually have no red lines we won't allow to be crossed. It's far too late to send troops into Ukraine now but we absolutely should be imposing a no fly zone.

    He already praised how smart Putin is for doing it
    Yeah, and I want to take back my previous statement that he was being miss-represented. Since his initial interview he's doubled down with his speeches at Mar-A-Largo and CPAC and, at this point, it's clear that he measures genius in purely transactional terms.


    Edit> Apparently there are now 3 structures visible from space. The Great Wall of China and the cojones on President Zelenskey.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Mar 1st, 2022 at 12:49 PM.
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  36. #196
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    How can you impose a no-fly zone without troops? Sure, those troops may not set foot on the ground, but they are still troops.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Yeah, and I want to take back my previous statement that he was being miss-represented. Since his initial interview he's doubled down with his speeches at Mar-A-Largo and CPAC and, at this point, it's clear that he measures genius in purely transactional terms.
    It seemed so obvious that Trump has a HUGE Bro Crush on Putin. If not that then he is scared to death of Putin. He publicly denounced the US intelligence services and supports Putin on issues. Trump just couldn't say enough good things about Putin. I agree with Ty, it amazes me that people believe Putin wouldn't have invaded if Trump was president. But then again, it amazes me that anyone believes anything Trump says.

  38. #198
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    How can you impose a no-fly zone without troops?
    I meant it's too late to send ground troops. Air force would, of course, be required.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Even Iron Maiden weren't that pessimistic.

    True, but that was in 1984 --> Cold War
    Remember, 1984 Reagan was President --> USSR = Empire of Evil

    That said: Just heard on the news: The Taliban are condemning Putin and Russia's war with the Ukraine?
    LOL?
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  40. #200
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Well, you wouldn't expect them to SUPPORT Russia, would you?
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