Current Russia Ukraine tensions

[wes4dbt]

It's pretty scary if you think about it very much. Look at the people who have the power to destroy the world. Probably best not to think about it. lol

[Shaggy Hiker]

Wasn't it because of that incident that the "red phone" was installed at both ends?


-tg

I don't know, though it seems unlikely. After all, if you get a surprise attack from one side or another, and you call through, what do you really expect them to say?

"Surprise!!"

That probably wouldn't be it...

[wes4dbt]

After all, if you get a surprise attack from one side or another, and you call through, what do you really expect them to say?

Might depend on what day of the year it is.

December 25th
April 1st

We got options. lol

[dilettante]

14 days of diesel left, and it was engineered.



The more you learn the more nefarious the globalists are revealed to be. Also we are now apparently at war without a declaration.

We're at a point where you have to wonder: Is the Biden Machine trying to make Trump look good? The 2020 Debate clip makes it clear this mess was never inevitable but a conscious choice instead.

[TysonLPrice]

The simple truth is that people should be terrified of the US nuclear capability because of that one, terrible, weakness. One thing that came up again and again when Trump was president is that there is no particular restraint on the president ordering the end of the world. It was designed that way explicitly, and was that way in the USSR, as well. The time between when a launch is detected and impact is too short for consultation and deliberation, so it comes down to one person having ALL the authority and ability to order a launch that would largely wipe out the human race.

You are probably aware that the world avoided that once in the past because a Soviet general refused to believe that the detections they were seeing meant that the US had actually launched a full nuclear strike. Had he followed doctrine, we wouldn't be having this conversation, but there had been enough contact between US and Soviet military leaders that he refused to believe. It turned out to be a simulation program that ran unexpectedly (essentially the plot of War Games, except on the Soviet side, and without the wacky old scientist and teenagers), and here we are, discussing which lunatic should be allowed to send a command to end us all.

It is the weakest link in the chain.

"Nancy Pelosi spoke with the nation’s top military officer on Friday about precautions in place to prevent President Donald Trump from ordering a nuclear strike or conducting other military hostilities as Democrats seek his removal from office.

Gen. John Hyten, now the nation’s No. 2 military officer, told an audience at a military forum in 2017 that leaders would not obey an illegal order and can advise the president before launching."

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/0...r-codes-456529

We are talking about a moron that wanted to nuke a hurricane.

[wes4dbt]

Every time I read about Iran supplying Russia with weapons it sort of confuses me. lol

Being raised during the era of the iron curtain and Red threat, Russia seemed like a country with endless stock piles of weapons. Plus an infrastructure to produce as many as needed on demand.

I wonder if my perception of our own military capabilities are just as wrong.

[dilettante]

I had the idea that once the fist of the Soviet Union fell away organized crime began stripping everything they could get their hands on to sell for profit and build up oligarchic fiefdoms.

[TysonLPrice]

Every time I read about Iran supplying Russia with weapons it sort of confuses me. lol

Being raised during the era of the iron curtain and Red threat, Russia seemed like a country with endless stock piles of weapons. Plus an infrastructure to produce as many as needed on demand.

I wonder if my perception of our own military capabilities are just as wrong.

I wonder how much of that "Russian - USSR" cold war fear was from our own politicians and media prompting a big "boogie man" for the public consumption. General Eisenhower warned of big business:

https://www.archives.gov/milestone-d...rewell-address

Let the tax dollars flow. Geez what is the percentage of the defense budget? 1.4 Trillion...

FIX: That isn't a percentage it is an amount. it is 3.5 percent.

[Shaggy Hiker]

It was a big "boogie man" (were the Dooby Brothers boogie men, or am I spelling it wrong?) even to those in the leadership. The USSR put up Sputnik for all the world to detect. They beat us to space. They beat us to orbit. They nearly beat us to the moon. We believed that they were also building really good military kit. In fact, they were willing to sacrifice some safety to get there first, while covering up failures much more effectively than we did.

They had swarms of tanks, just like they did in WW II. They kind of looked good. They certainly looked like tanks, and there were lots of them, but people got spooked and thought they were better than they actually were. Perhaps some people reinforced that narrative for the sake of profit. It would be surprising if they didn't, but they found a VERY receptive audience. If it was sold, there was also a willing buyer.

[FunkyDexter]

I had the idea that once the fist of the Soviet Union fell away organized crime began stripping everything they could get their hands on to sell for profit and build up oligarchic fiefdoms

I think that's pretty much bang on.

Couple that with the fact that equipment ages, both physically and by becoming obsolete. I think Russia do still have piles of equipment, though somewhat reduced for the reason Dil gave. The problem they face is that the equipment is no longer functional or modern. They performed pretty well against smaller and developing nations because the militaries of those nations were made up of second hand sell offs from NATO and the USSR - it was all obsolete itself. When Russia found themselves faced with a modern, western military the obsolescence and unreliability of their own arsenal was thrown into stark relief.

They were left with their arsenal in the wind.

[Shaggy Hiker]

And they found the Ukrainian man united.

[sapator]

I wonder why no one here commented about the elections. Granted vbforum leftish group (Niya come back) is understandable they have curled until the final result but no one else?
Seriously now. Is a correct assumption that if republicans have 218 seats in the parliament they can conduct committees and trials for p.e. Biden's son and for the vaxbie and also cut funding on Ukraine?
Or it's more like Greece that whatever happens in sold out government stays in sold out government until the full elections?

[TysonLPrice]

I wonder why no one here commented about the elections. Granted vbforum leftish group (Niya come back) is understandable they have curled until the final result but no one else?
Seriously now. Is a correct assumption that if republicans have 218 seats in the parliament they can conduct committees and trials for p.e. Biden's son and for the vaxbie and also cut funding on Ukraine?
Or it's more like Greece that whatever happens in sold our government stays in sold our government until the full elections?

The dust hasn't settled yet. There are still open Races. Particularly in the Senate. I'm not sure about the parliament. Does anyone know how the race is going

[wes4dbt]

Right now the support for Ukraine is strong from both parties. So that wont change any time soon no matter who wins.

[dilettante]

That's kind of funny. It reminds me though of Obama's "Stumping For Darkness" tour where he stopped to shill for Whitmer here and found the audience full of protesters against his role in the Ukrainian coup in 2014.

All you can find on corporate media are carefully edited bits where he appears to recover then berate the protesters in his best Slick Willie. Lots of camera phone footage out there shows that it didn't go down like that at all.



Compare this with what CNN, NBC, BBC, et al. show and you can see where the term "fake news" came from.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I wonder why no one here commented about the elections. Granted vbforum leftish group (Niya come back) is understandable they have curled until the final result but no one else?
Seriously now. Is a correct assumption that if republicans have 218 seats in the parliament they can conduct committees and trials for p.e. Biden's son and for the vaxbie and also cut funding on Ukraine?
Or it's more like Greece that whatever happens in sold out government stays in sold out government until the full elections?

We don't have a thread on it. This seems like a particularly poor thread to take in that direction...though derailing a Chit-Chat thread is certainly nothing new. It probably does count as a World Event, though, despite being technically regional.

The senate is almost certainly going to remain Democratic, at this point. That would flip if Walker wins in Georgia, but it's hard to believe a person with that much baggage can win, especially when he didn't get a majority in the election and Wharnock won the last runnoff he was in. That will likely leave the senate Democratic.

As for the house (we don't have a parliament), that will be Republican, but with a thin majority. The question then becomes: What dod they do with it? The Republican party is not nearly as united as it might appear, especially in the house. Factionalism is much more prevalent in the house than the senate, due to the different nature of the races between the two. Senators run for the whole state, so they have to be somewhat more centrists, whereas house races are for districts, which can (and usually are) gerrymandered to the point where they don't have to worry about a challenge from the other party, only from within their own. There are also LOTS of members. This means that there are moderates and radicals within each party. If you have a strong majority, those divisions don't matter all that much. If you have a weak majority, even a small cabal can drive the bus.

So, what will happen? Maybe nothing at all. Maybe internal warfare. Maybe a long series of investigations. There are reasons to believe in any of those outcomes. The one point about the Republicans, though, is that they do better in opposition when it comes to the house. When they try to lead, they have a tendency to stake out unpopular positions and stick to them until the public turns on them. We'll see what happens this time.

[dilettante]

The Republican party is not nearly as united as it might appear

That's been true since the "Tea Party" days under G W Bush. As far as I can tell the newer changes have been to call anyone who doesn't vote blue no matter who a Republican and many crypto-Dems coming out of the closet while keep one toe on red to cling to the party in name only.

[Shaggy Hiker]

That's been true since the "Tea Party" days under G W Bush. As far as I can tell the newer changes have been to call anyone who doesn't vote blue no matter who a Republican and many crypto-Dems coming out of the closet while keep one toe on red to cling to the party in name only.

Yeah, the Tea Party days did split the Republican party quite a bit. I felt that it became more cohesive under Trump...though one could easily argue that wasn't the case, considering how they had majorities in both house and senate at one point and couldn't come together to pass ANYTHING on their agenda. I felt they cast out anybody who wasn't a true believer, and that clearly wasn't entirely the case. The purge has not been complete, even now, and seems to be flowing in the other direction.

I expect it to be entertaining in a 'train wreck' kind of way. I feel like there are strong forces pulling in opposing directions within that party, which usually creates for some interesting fireworks.

[FunkyDexter]

What dod they do with it?

I wonder if that typo will turn out to be portentous.

At this point I suspect they haven't picked up enough of a majority to do much of anything really. They'll try to set up a few investigations, spoil a few policies etc. but with that narrow a lead they'll have to be in absolute lock step. Trump is likely to be side lined after the poor performance of his endorsements and I wonder if the party will be able to maintain the appearance of coherence without him. If they don't manage to carry the Senate - well then it's spoilers only, all the way.

[TysonLPrice]

it's hard to believe a person with that much baggage can win

You can say that when Trump won once and almost a second time?

[TysonLPrice]

Trump is likely to be side lined after the poor performance of his endorsements and I wonder if the party will be able to maintain the appearance of coherence without him.

None of that will be true if he announces this week

[sapator]

How long will it take to count the votes?
I mean I understand that it's a big country but, Jesus!

[Shaggy Hiker]

Oh it's worse than that. Every state has its own, independent, process. So it shouldn't be seen as a big country, it should be seen as a whole bunch of small countries (well, a couple would be fairly large by population or area, but they also counted fairly quickly).

Beyond that, in some states, there are different voting and counting systems at the county or city level. For example, there's a county in northern Idaho that was FAR later than the rest of the state, because they had a whole bunch of people 'cross out' one choice and enter another. I don't believe that would even be possible in the part of the state that I live in, because the system does result in a printed ballot, but also in a machine-readable portion. A person would have to go through some serious contortions to cross out anything on those in any meaningful way without utterly spoiling the ballot.

I've also used punch card ballots in the middle of the state, and a manual checkbox (pen or pencil on paper) a bit further south of me.

So, in this state, there are different systems by county. Other states are likely as bad.

[Shaggy Hiker]

None of that will be true if he announces this week

One thing that is already starting, and is totally predictable, is that Trump is going to attack Ron DeSantis. That will happen whether or not Trump runs, and it will tend to shred the Republican party. Whether or not they can pull it together in two years remains to be seen. In the meantime...the news will be entertaining.

[TysonLPrice]

How long will it take to count the votes?
I mean I understand that it's a big country but, Jesus!

For Nevada I see this:

Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria said in a news conference that Tuesday, Nov. 15, is the deadline to verify mail-in ballots and Thursday, Nov. 17, is the latest date for releasing the final, unofficial election results.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...nto-next-week/

I think the run off in Georgia is December 6th?

[TysonLPrice]

One thing that is already starting, and is totally predictable, is that Trump is going to attack Ron DeSantis. That will happen whether or not Trump runs, and it will tend to shred the Republican party. Whether or not they can pull it together in two years remains to be seen. In the meantime...the news will be entertaining.

Oh yeah...let the attacks begin:

The former president labeled DeSantis "average" and once again belittled him with the nickname “Ron DeSanctimonious."

Trump bemoaned conservative media establishments being "all in" for DeSantis and bragged that he got more votes in Florida in 2020 than DeSantis did this year.

He took credit for DeSantis' rise to a star of the Republican Party, saying he has previously "fixed" the governor's campaign and that DeSantis came to him "in desperate shape in 2017."

"Ron had low approval, bad polls, and no money, but he said that if I would endorse him, he could win," he wrote. "When I endorsed him, it was as though, to use a bad term, a nuclear weapon went off."

Trump complained about how taciturn Florida's leader has been regarding the speculation that he may run for president in 2024.

"And now, Ron DeSanctimonious is playing games! The Fake News asks him if he’s going to run if President Trump runs, and he says, 'I’m only focused on the Governor’s race, I’m not looking into the future.' Well, in terms of loyalty and class, that’s really not the right answer," Trump wrote

https://www.wesh.com/article/trump-d...tack/41936171#

[dilettante]

As far as I can tell this is astroturfing.

Most of the hundreds Trump endorsed have won their contests, and as the vote counting dribbles in even more will. Most of the "division" the GOP is dealing with is just at the top where factions are jockeying for position and the Romneycrats still haven't been expunged. At the grass roots level little has changed.

People still hear "progressive" and picture black hoods, guns, firebombs, clubs, and vans plowing through families at a Christmas parade.

[Shaggy Hiker]

People still hear "progressive" and picture black hoods, guns, firebombs, clubs, and vans plowing through families at a Christmas parade.

What people are those? You should contact them and get them to update their medication.

[dilettante]

A Wisconsin man is convicted of killing 6 with an SUV in a Christmas parade

MADISON, Wis. — A Wisconsin man was convicted Wednesday of killing six people when he drove his SUV through a Christmas parade last year, ending a trial in which he defended himself erratically and sometimes confrontationally.

The jury found Darrell Brooks guilty of six counts of first-degree intentional homicide. He faces a mandatory life sentence on each count.

Candace Owens: Darrell Brooks Was Radicalized By the Progressive Agenda

EXCERPT:

OWENS: "And beyond that, let's be very clear, Darrell E. Brooks was radicalized by the progressive agenda. He was radicalized by the Black Lives Matter narrative. His postings show you that. He believes in the narrative that police are out to hunt black men and that we have to raise up against white people and fight for our place in this country. He is learning that from the politicians, the left-wing politicians, the left-wing media sources that have been forcing this narrative down the throats of not just the adults, but the children in the school system. So, yes, he was radicalized by leftist propaganda."

And that's just one high profile example, despite the corporate media effort to avoid covering the story or at best mention it once quickly then move on to 30 Trump and Russia stories.

[wes4dbt]

The Ukrainians have retaken Kherson. That's a very good sign and a little surprising. I thought after Russia started pressing people into service that within a month or two they would be putting a massive amount of boots on the ground and start advancing again. Maybe it's just a little to soon for that. I'm still having a hard time believing that Russia's conventional military powers are so weak.

[Shaggy Hiker]

A Wisconsin man is convicted of killing 6 with an SUV in a Christmas parade



Candace Owens: Darrell Brooks Was Radicalized By the Progressive Agenda



And that's just one high profile example, despite the corporate media effort to avoid covering the story or at best mention it once quickly then move on to 30 Trump and Russia stories.

As I said, I did hear about it. I'd say that it got as much attention as any killing of the sort by the time the trial was over. You're trying to make it some left wing conspiracy that the news media has the attention span of a flee, but it cuts both ways.

Trump and Russia have both managed to keep themselves in the news, so they do tend to get covered extensively. If you really wanted a comparison, then you should compare the coverage of that story to that of some right-wing killing spree...except that those don't get covered anymore than this story did: Both get their moment in the sun, then the media moves on.

[sapator]

The Ukrainians have retaken Kherson. That's a very good sign and a little surprising. I thought after Russia started pressing people into service that within a month or two they would be putting a massive amount of boots on the ground and start advancing again. Maybe it's just a little to soon for that. I'm still having a hard time believing that Russia's conventional military powers are so weak.

Not really. They have announced the departure of the north or south side, can't recall, a week ago and they left left with their hands in their pockets...Don't make me go to Syntagma square again waiting to hoist the NATO flag...

[Shaggy Hiker]

They left too fast. They got 40K people across the river in roughly a single day. That can happen, but it sure wouldn't be easy if you also wanted to take your equipment with you.

I always felt that it was a reasonable move. That flank is now pretty secure. Neither side need worry all that much about the other side crossing. There are only two bridges, and both can be broken quite easily. As long as Russia was moving forwards, they had to cross that river, but once they had stopped moving forwards, which they clearly had in the Kherson front, the most reasonable place to form a line was along that river. Now the situation has reached that point, and both sides can turn their attention elsewhere. I've just been wondering where that will be.

[FunkyDexter]

And that's just one high profile example

And also a complete misrepresentation of what actually happened.

Brookes was attempting to escape police pursuit after he'd assaulted his girlfriend and drove into the crowd as part of that escape. He was controlling, domestic abuser with a history of violent crime who showed zero regard for the human consequences of the actions he took and you won't find anyone on the left (or right, for that matter), who's going to portray him as anything other than an awful human being. But to portray his actions as politically motivated is downright dishonest.

Right wing nutjobs driving cars into crowds of BLM protesters though... that's absolutely been a thing, was very definitely political and has led to the perpetrators being hailed as heroes.

They have announced the departure of the north or south side, can't recall, a week ago and they left left with their hands in their pockets

They left the North side and retreated to the Southern bank.

This puts the whole of Crimea within artillery range for the Ukrainians, including the bridge. That's why Russia put so much effort into holding it even though it was strategically isolated. My prediction is that we've probably seen the last significant offensive by either side for this year (Winter will halt most progress) but early next spring Ukraine will mount an offensive South in the direction of the Sea of Azov and combine that with shelling the Crimean bridge. This will cut the whole of Crimea and the Kherson Oblast off from supply.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I think you might be wrong about that. The fall is impossible in Ukraine because of the mud, but once the ground freezes, armor has an easier time of it and so do people. Cold isn't so bad so long as it stays below freezing. It's when you're oscillating over and under the freezing point that things get miserable. Water should stay wet, or stay solid. You can plan for either one. It's when it is going back and forth that life gets full of suck.

[wes4dbt]

I think you might be wrong about that. The fall is impossible in Ukraine because of the mud, but once the ground freezes, armor has an easier time of it and so do people. Cold isn't so bad so long as it stays below freezing. It's when you're oscillating over and under the freezing point that things get miserable. Water should stay wet, or stay solid. You can plan for either one. It's when it is going back and forth that life gets full of suck.

That's only true if you have the right equipment and how deep the soft snow is. A lot of Germans froze to death in Russia during WWII. Mud will slow you down but wont kill you.

[Shaggy Hiker]

True, but the Germans headed into Russia with summer uniforms. They didn't have enough winter equipment, at least not for the first winter. The Ukrainian forces appear to be getting a LOT of quality gear. Non-lethal donations are a good way to straddle the fence for some countries. Not sure who's giving them the stuff, but I was looking at a video that was reviewing the kit the soldiers are carrying in different videos. It looks like, if you compare what they were wearing in March as opposed to what they are wearing now, they've upgraded things like boots, jackets, and so forth.

As for the snow, I'm not sure how much they will get. That fighting is going on over lots of open, flat, agricultural areas. In my experience, those tend never to accumulate very deep snow, because it just blows off to various ravines, tree lines, and the like.

[wes4dbt]

True, but the Germans headed into Russia with summer uniforms. They didn't have enough winter equipment, at least not for the first winter. The Ukrainian forces appear to be getting a LOT of quality gear. Non-lethal donations are a good way to straddle the fence for some countries. Not sure who's giving them the stuff, but I was looking at a video that was reviewing the kit the soldiers are carrying in different videos. It looks like, if you compare what they were wearing in March as opposed to what they are wearing now, they've upgraded things like boots, jackets, and so forth.

As for the snow, I'm not sure how much they will get. That fighting is going on over lots of open, flat, agricultural areas. In my experience, those tend never to accumulate very deep snow, because it just blows off to various ravines, tree lines, and the like.

In this case I think winter might not stop the offensive. I don't really know what the winters or terrain are like in Ukraine. Ukraine exports a lot of grain so that would suggest a lot of it is not mountainous. Large flat expanses probably wont be a problem during winter if they have the right equipment. But many military offenses have been halted by winter, even been the turning point. As for WWII even into the winter of '42 the Germans soldiers weren't well equipped. Stalingrad was a nightmare for them, I don't know much about the St. Petersburg offensive but I do know winter played well for the Russians.

I saw a German propaganda film where a the rich Germans were at a party and donating there coats for the brave soldiers at the eastern front, the women giving up their fur coats. I've seen a lot of film footage of WWII and never saw a German soldier in a fur coat. lol

[FunkyDexter]

Historically (i.e. WW2) it's more to do with equipment (particularly vehicles) jamming in sub-zero temperatures. Thinking about it, I'm not sure that's still a problem. The Germans in WW2 had to run their vehicles overnight, sucking up more fuel, to prevent this. Today I don't have that problem with my car. So maybe the advances will continue, I'm not sure.

[sapator]

They where caught in the winter because they where depending that Italy will overrun Greece. When the opposite happened they had to battle Greece before they move for Russia. That was a mistake and winter caught them, turning the outcome around.