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Thread: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

  1. #1201
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I believe that the concern everybody has is what Putin will do if his backs really against the wall. This is a proxy fight. Politics by other means. Partly, this is because an actual conflict is clearly too dangerous for either side to seriously consider it. Putin's figuring he can keep in it until the West tires of the cost. The West figures they can keep in it until Putin tires of the cost.

    The problem is...what happens if Putin doesn't tire of the cost? What happens if he's flat out beaten? He's not president by popular vote. He's president through power and intimidation. If he straight up loses in Ukraine, the intimidation might go away...but the power wouldn't, necessarily. That would be dangerous.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    I believe that the concern everybody has is what Putin will do if his backs really against the wall. This is a proxy fight. Politics by other means. Partly, this is because an actual conflict is clearly too dangerous for either side to seriously consider it. Putin's figuring he can keep in it until the West tires of the cost. The West figures they can keep in it until Putin tires of the cost.

    The problem is...what happens if Putin doesn't tire of the cost? What happens if he's flat out beaten? He's not president by popular vote. He's president through power and intimidation. If he straight up loses in Ukraine, the intimidation might go away...but the power wouldn't, necessarily. That would be dangerous.
    That seems like a fair analysis. But it sure seems to put the Ukrainians in a vice. Between the invading Russians and people who are afraid to win the war. It sucks to be Ukraine.

  3. #1203
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Yeah, it 'mostly' sucks to be Ukraine no matter what. A pawn or a patsy. That's not a great choice.

    The one positive that I think will come out of this is that Ukraine is forging an identity as an independent country, which is something they haven't really had. One of the reasons Putin thought the invasion would be easy was because he thought, as did lots of people, that a very large percentage of Ukrainians felt more Russian than Ukrainian. He was wrong then and he's even more wrong now. The Ukrainian language is even making a strong comeback as a result of this war. Nothing coalesces a people quite like a shared enemy.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Well it looks like Germany and the US have decided to send Ukraine tanks. If they start soon there should be time to get the Ukrainian fully trained by the spring offensive starts. Now if they take the next step to air support, that will force Russia to change how they are fighting the war. I don't know if that will turn out good or bad but I think it will stop this tactic of slowly waring down the Ukrainians.

  5. #1205
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I think it's mainly to do with Germany's history. In fact, I believe not escalating conflicts is actually written into Germany's constitution. I'm not sure on that, though. It's just something I've heard so folks should probably fact check it before using it in a pub quiz.

    There are some indications that this was also partly a negotiating card to get the US to commit Abrahams tanks because the Germans didn't want to be the next obvious target if Russia won in Ukraine. That doesn't sound right to me, though, because there is little chance of Russia winning at this point and practically none of them then pushing through the Baltic states, Poland and then on into Germany.

    I also think that the idea of the US contributing Abrahams is pretty dumb anyway. It's an awesome tank for short punching attacks a la blitzkrieg tactics (probably the best in the world today) but it's a logistical nightmare (the thing literally runs on rocket fuel for God's sake) making it unsuitable for longer attritional conflicts like we're seeing in Ukraine. If the US were to contribute tanks, the new MPF would be a much better bet. It's diesel and the Ukrainians have already demonstrate an incredible ability to utilise light armour.

    I'm also concerned that this is not backed up by a substantial attempt to achieve air superiority. That leaves a very real risk that the Russians could do Ukrainian armoured columns the same thing that the Ukrainians did to the Russian ones. Although a lot of that was attributable to poor Russian infantry tactics. Still feels like a concern though.
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  6. #1206
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    It's Abrams, not Abraham. The Abraham tanks had a disturbing tendency to grow long beards and try to sacrifice their sons.

    The argument against sending Abrams, from what I've heard, is the logistics. Maintaining them sounds like it takes an army. That's an interesting choice. I'd have more to say on that, but will leave it there.

    I don't think air superiority is all that much of an issue. One thing that war is showing us is that drones are coming to dominate. Anti-aircraft defenses are improving faster than aircraft countermeasures can keep up with, but drones are smaller, shorter range, lower flying, harder to spot, and harder to stop. It seems like something of a tactical, localized, air power situation. I haven't heard Ukraine calling for a lot of jets, of late, though requests for more armor are constant. It may just be due to a realization that a jet is a very expensive piece of kit that is increasingly unsuited to this particular battle. The training for the pilots is expensive, the maintenance is expensive, the plane itself is very expensive, and the fight is very localized. The long range stuff can be done through a combination of drones and HIMARS. Planes might not be worth the cost.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I think it's mainly to do with Germany's history. In fact, I believe not escalating conflicts is actually written into Germany's constitution. I'm not sure on that, though. It's just something I've heard so folks should probably fact check it before using it in a pub quiz.

    There are some indications that this was also partly a negotiating card to get the US to commit Abrahams tanks because the Germans didn't want to be the next obvious target if Russia won in Ukraine. That doesn't sound right to me, though, because there is little chance of Russia winning at this point and practically none of them then pushing through the Baltic states, Poland and then on into Germany.

    I also think that the idea of the US contributing Abrahams is pretty dumb anyway. It's an awesome tank for short punching attacks a la blitzkrieg tactics (probably the best in the world today) but it's a logistical nightmare (the thing literally runs on rocket fuel for God's sake) making it unsuitable for longer attritional conflicts like we're seeing in Ukraine. If the US were to contribute tanks, the new MPF would be a much better bet. It's diesel and the Ukrainians have already demonstrate an incredible ability to utilise light armour.

    I'm also concerned that this is not backed up by a substantial attempt to achieve air superiority. That leaves a very real risk that the Russians could do Ukrainian armoured columns the same thing that the Ukrainians did to the Russian ones. Although a lot of that was attributable to poor Russian infantry tactics. Still feels like a concern though.
    I don't know anything about the Leopard tank but it does make sense to pick just one. The Abrams is an awesome tank but your right logistics may make the Leopard a better choice. The knowledge and infrastructure is a lot closer to Ukraine.

    I'm curious, does the Ukraine's have the Patriot missile defense systems operational now in the Ukraine? Very many?

  8. #1208
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    It's Abrams, not Abraham
    I did not know that. I guess I've never seen it written down.

    I don't think air superiority is all that much of an issue.
    You could be right. I certainly hope you are.

    I'm curious, does the Ukraine's have the Patriot missile defense systems operational now in the Ukraine? Very many?
    I believe so but I'll admit I've kinda lost track. I know it was being discussed.
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  9. #1209
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I know that they were being trained on them, and that wasn't all that long ago. I guess I'd be a bit surprised if any had been deployed, yet, but only a little surprised. It should be soon, if it hasn't happened already.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Well, they didn't listen to our advise. They're sending Abrams. Wonder if they're planning to have US maintenance teams somewhere close by a neutral border (if there is such a thing) for anything other than basic service.

  11. #1211
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I heard that the reason for sending Abrams tanks is as cover so that other countries like Poland could send some. That would fit your reasoning, as well, since they might be sent back to the shop for repairs.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I heard that the reason for sending Abrams tanks is as cover so that other countries like Poland could send some.
    That's impression I've got.
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  13. #1213
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    I heard that the reason for sending Abrams tanks is as cover so that other countries like Poland could send some. That would fit your reasoning, as well, since they might be sent back to the shop for repairs.
    Just to be clear. There sending the American tanks so other smaller NATO countries can send tanks and not be singled out by Russia, and retaliated against.

  14. #1214
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    That still works, though, as those other countries are also closer and connected via a rail network, which is mighty convenient when it comes to repairs.

    Part of the design of the Sherman tank in WW II was the limitations of shipping. The tank had to be capable of being maintained in the field because sending it back to...pretty much anywhere, was going to be expensive.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    The headlong rush toward World War III does not seem to be universally held.

    What’s behind the Western divide over arming Ukraine?

    In general, two schools of thought have emerged on Ukraine. The first is held by the Baltics, Nordics, Poland, and other eastern European states, and it is the belief that Russia needs to be decisively defeated militarily. Russian President Vladimir Putin, the thinking goes, needs to be denied the opportunity to spin a narrative that can keep Russian imperialism alive.
    The second school of thought, held by Germany, France, southern European states, and to an extent Washington, seeks to avoid escalation in the belief that a Putin cornered and in decline could lead to uncontrollable developments. Moreover, the second school views Russia as unavoidably Europe’s neighbor, a country that must be dealt with in one way or another.
    But as chaos and globalism recedes those who got rich off it want more:

    After decades of disarmament, Europe has a period of only about ten years in which the United States will bridge the gap in restocking depleted stockpiles, Michta explained. Europe has to make larger investments, and soon, to convince the United States to continue funding European security.
    So perhaps there isn't any endgame here at all if the warmongers have their way. Nothing less than resumption of an expensive Cold War after ramping hostilities seems to meet their standard of "stability."

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I suppose if you are young enough "quagmire" only brings to mind a cartoon character.

  17. #1217
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Giggedy

    The second school of thought, held by Germany, France, southern European states, and to an extent Washington,
    I feel like that's diminishing rapidly though. As Putin continues to double down despite massive military defeats it's increasingly obvious that this strategy doesn't have an end state. Putin will always be able to throw another wave of poorly provisioned young men into the grinder. And Ukraine is never going to quit while it's winning localised conflicts and its territory is occupied. It's increasingly obvious that this only ends with a Ukrainian collapse, which is unacceptable to the West, or Russia being driven out of Ukraine.

    I'm going to make a horribly depressing prediction. I think Ukraine will drive Russia out (probably in 2023 but could roll on into 2024) but that won't end the conflict as Russia will simply continue to bombard civil centres from the border. Russia has absolutely no motive to end this. Meaning the only actual end involves invading Russian territory and that is a truly scary prospect.

    But then, we've been condemning Ukraine to fight this conflict with one hand behind it's back from the very beginning. I'm no hawk and I view conflict as a last resort but when you're invaded, what choice do you have. And if you're going to fight a war, you fight to damn well win. Fighting to draw is a recipe for a longer and bloodier conflict. If we'd had NATO boots on the ground from the very beginning I doubt this would have started. And if we'd established a no fly zone in February things would be in a lot better shape now.
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  18. #1218
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Isn't the loss of a foreign adventure what brought down the Tsar?
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  19. #1219
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Yes, but in that case the Germans had moved onto Russian territory and were busy capturing more and more of it. It left the Bolsheviks with little choice but to cut a deal. In this case I think it is possible that military losses in the field will bring Putin down but the likely looking replacements are even more hawkish than he is.

    I really hope I'm wrong though.
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  20. #1220
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Health may bring Putin down. That may be the only way the war ends, too, since Russia seems willing to throw men into the meat grinder.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Health may bring Putin down. That may be the only way the war ends, too, since Russia seems willing to throw men into the meat grinder.
    Russia or just Putin? Not that you can separate them. But I wonder how the general population feels. It's hard to know from this far on the out side.

  22. #1222
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    One reporter talked to some soldiers in a hospital and came away feeling that they were fairly fatalistic about the whole thing. They didn't like it, thought they were being led poorly for bad reasons, but also seemed to feel that it was their duty to serve regardless.

    If that's the case, where the soldiers feel, "my lot is bad, but it is my lot," then the war can go on for a very long time.
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  23. #1223
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Yeah, even unpopular wars can last a long time.

  24. #1224
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    My first post on this thread, again:

    I don't want to really get into it but some words.
    1)Ukraine is governed by neo Nazis, kudos for supporting them.
    2)NATO due to sleepy and the puppets is bringing troops and weapons to "defend" Ukraine that is the "victim".
    3)US would think twice and thrice to do what it does if it has close borders with Russia but a proxy war is not costing much.
    4)We gave the port of Alexandoupolis to US for supply , tanks, troops and copters, we, meaning our sold out politicians. We,meaning a patriotic government, should immediately sweep everyone out as we are endanger our relationships with our Russian friends.
    5)We need to leave NATO, like, yesterday.
    6)NATO is squeezing Putin, so what do you expect as a response? Roses?
    7)As I have no desire to be done on what covid thread done to the chit-chat, that's my 1$ 32 cents and I'm outta here...

    I don't think anything changed. If NATO wants to end the war he can do it today by withdrawing and order the puppet for a treaty, but it's fighting for the poor Ukrainians, right, everyone that thinks that is clearly delusional. So is US going to end the war sometime soon? We are bored.
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  25. #1225
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by sapator View Post
    1)Ukraine is governed by neo Nazis, kudos for supporting them.
    That's ridiculous. A Jewish neo Nazi. There are some neo Nazis in Ukraine, as there appear to be all over Europe and the US, but 'governed by'? Yeah, that's ridiculous.
    2)NATO due to sleepy and the puppets is bringing troops and weapons to "defend" Ukraine that is the "victim".
    Weapons, yes, troops...not so much. There are a few volunteers from various countries fighting over there, as there has always been in every war, but NATO is more likely to be discouraging them rather than sending them. They'd be decidedly counterproductive.

    Also, there isn't much point in the quotes around defend. It's mighty hard to come up with a different definition of what is going on. The same can be said for the word victim. Ukraine certainly didn't invade Russia.
    3)US would think twice and thrice to do what it does if it has close borders with Russia but a proxy war is not costing much.
    Yes, very much so. Of course, I believe it was Churchill who put it best that the US was blessed to be bordered on two sides by weak neighbors and on the other sides by fish.
    4)We gave the port of Alexandoupolis to US for supply , tanks, troops and copters, we, meaning our sold out politicians. We,meaning a patriotic government, should immediately sweep everyone out as we are endanger our relationships with our Russian friends.
    Yep, but it doesn't look likely. Greece has various relationships with various neighbors. Considering the saber rattling from Turkey, I'd guess that any relationship with Russia is a lower priority, at the moment.
    5)We need to leave NATO, like, yesterday.
    That would be a turkey of a move.
    6)NATO is squeezing Putin, so what do you expect as a response? Roses?
    The problem is that nobody knows. Certainly not roses. A bit of economic tit-for-tat is all that has happened, thus far. Even a country as large as Russia needs allies. Right now, it has opportunists and China. Putin has good reason not to get too close to China, and opportunists tend to be opportunists.

    At this point, Putin simply lacks any good alternatives. They are all bad, so which one does he see as the best of the bad lot? I don't think anybody knows.

    I don't think anything changed. If NATO wants to end the war he can do it today by withdrawing and order the puppet for a treaty, but it's fighting for the poor Ukrainians, right, everyone that thinks that is clearly delusional. So is US going to end the war sometime soon? We are bored.
    If NATO withdrew support, then Ukraine would fight on for a time. They've shown themselves to be remarkably ingenious with their use of weapons. Ultimately, though, they'd end up collapsing as their economy was crushed and they ran out of supplies. However, there is no good reason for NATO to withdraw support, even by your own analysis. It is, after all, a proxy war on the cheap.

    A peace under a truce would also be a significant gain, as the war is clearly making Ukraine a more cohesive nation, where before it had split loyalties. It may be a less corrupt nation, as well, which would be a real benefit.

    There are only two ways that the situation turns out bad for NATO. The first is if Putin decides to end the world. The second would be if they let Ukraine collapse. Any other outcome is a win, great or small.
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  26. #1226
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    That is super long I'm so bored to answer clearly because your philosophy is quite different but since Shaggy rulez, here is a sort version.
    1)Some neo Nazis?All over Europe? Ok, correct, what can I say. Go to the football field video I showed or don't. Did I say that claw is Nazi?Well might be, caught in bad companies. Israel does not feel warm for him btw .I got a video from an ex mossad bushing him but I did not post it and now I don't wanna go search again. If anyone find it , feel free. Or google Israel hate Zelensky.
    2)Weapons and troops all over and throwing Ukraine soldiers to the dogs but I wouldn't bother showing resources as all is Russian propaganda.
    3)True
    4)So so so so....SO untrue. European support like The fall of Byzantine empire (what you think they where Ottomans that started it?),The loss of Ionia, dragged to war with Russia in Crimea, the occupation of Cyprus. Yeah, thanks for that. I'll take Russia any day. Except our politicians are sold out dogs.
    5)Why?Hey, we are not afraid of Turkey, let them come! Leave and never look back. Individually we can have mutual agreements with other countries like France but joining NATO chariot was one of the biggest mistakes we ever made. Or I'll edit that, continue joining NATO. Really what is the purpose of NATO now? Fight the communists? Slaughter Serbia , Irak,Iran, Libya, Afghanistan, Ukraine? Is NATO the sheriff for the big bad guys?
    6)Then anyone that is not on NATO is opportunist, because they hate our guts.
    If NATO withdrew? They shouldn't have given hope in Ukraine at the first time. The clown will fall when has served his purpose. Eventually Ukraine means nothing, the game is on a whole different level and Ukraine just stuck in the middle.

    I'll keep any reply short next time, if any.

    P.S. remember: Jumpin jack flash, Its a gas! gas! gas! and boom boom boom sha shake the room
    Last edited by sapator; Jan 30th, 2023 at 05:35 PM.
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  27. #1227
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Who and what Israel hates is kind of irrelevant, and becoming more so all the time. They speak for Israel.
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