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Thread: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

  1. #881
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    I would say that Putin will not be removed by people who speak about the subject publicly. They have recreated the USSR system, where there is a leader, but changes can be made by a consensus of largely invisible people.
    That's interesting. How would that work? Threaten him, ask him nicely. lol

    Seriously, I would like to know how they could drive him out of office.

  2. #882
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    It's mostly a guess. There is likely a group, kind of like the politburo, that could convince him that it is time for him to step down. Whether or not Russia has such a group, I do not know. As an example, Premier Xi of China is likely to get elected to a new term in the next few months. That would break precedent, as he's already served two, and that has been the limit for some time. The reason he is likely to get a third term is because he is quite powerful within China, but from everything I have heard, it would also be possible for him NOT to get that third term. Who would be denying it? He's certainly the most powerful member of the government, but his power derives from the fact that people follow his orders. If MOST of the people below him decide that they're own livelihood is jeopardized by him getting a third term, then he probably wouldn't.

    I expect that the same is true of Putin. He has power because people follow his orders. That could go on forever, but somebody has to take actual action, at some point. A few people rebelling won't change a thing. For example, if one or two ministers decided they didn't agree with them, he could order their replacement and others would carry out those orders. If the majority decided they wouldn't go along, then they might even be able to prevent everyone else from carrying out his orders.

    It would be a matter of internal politics. They exist, but how they work in the Kremlin I certainly don't know.
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  3. #883
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I'm curious where this China - Russia relationship is heading. I think it'll be limited, I don't see China wanting Russia to become to strong. They share a border and have a long history distrust. But politics makes for strange bed fellows.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    I'm curious where this China - Russia relationship is heading. I think it'll be limited, I don't see China wanting Russia to become to strong. They share a border and have a long history distrust. But politics makes for strange bed fellows.
    Especially when they consider themselves having a common enemy.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Chinese premiere Xi took his first trip out of China to attend a summit with a former soviet state. That's an interesting development. It may be completely innocent, but it could also suggest that China is looking to peel some satellites away from Russia.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Chinese premiere Xi took his first trip out of China to attend a summit with a former soviet state. That's an interesting development. It may be completely innocent, but it could also suggest that China is looking to peel some satellites away from Russia.
    I was think China would be eager to pick up the fuel that Europe is cutting back on.

  7. #887
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Yeah, especially at a discount. India is caching in, as well.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Pretty sure Russia's going to be little more than a Chinese Satellite in 10 years time.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    You seem to have high ambitions for China. Internal problems there are more severe than those in Russia, which doesn't face much future itself.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I'm not so sure that it is high ambitions for China as a dismal outlook for Russia. China will certainly be interesting to watch. They do have issues, but they also have a much better industrial base, and currently, not quite the same demographic headwinds (though they are building, for sure).
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I'm not so sure that it is high ambitions for China as a dismal outlook for Russia.
    Yeah, that.

    Random aside, following the recent counter attack, Russia is now the fourth largest donor of heavy equipment to Ukraine.
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  12. #892
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    It looks likes Russia might have decided to scale back it's invasion goals in Ukraine. They seem to be trying to sure up there "so called" political authority in the regions they occupy.

    But on the other hand it could be just a way to stall for time while they rebuild their forces.

    Either way, Ukraine is going to continue to fight. Probably going to still be fighting this time next year.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    on the other hand it could be just a way to stall for time while they rebuild their forces.
    I think a bit of both.

    I've just heard on the news that he's been making more nuclear threats but I only tuned in half way through the article so I don't know what the details are.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Ukraine lost 10.000 men and 40.000 injured on a counter attack that got 1/50 of the grounds back, according to Ukraine reports. Also Russia will start a referendum on the occupied region to join with Russia or not.
    https://twitter.com/Zakaria_Z_Army/s...kai-xarkovo%2F

    Those 10.000 are mostly mercenaries else they wouldn't be many "Ukrainians left to fight.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by sapator View Post
    Ukraine lost 10.000 men and 40.000 injured on a counter attack that got 1/50 of the grounds back
    It is always wise to be selective on the things you quote. You need to stop believing everything you hear.

    The skill is in defining the truth from all the multiplicity of sources and not just spouting the first bull **** you read.

    What I find truly amazing is how supposedly bright people don't seem to think before chucking their rubbish into the public domain. Time and time again we see that. My advice - use your noggin and keep schtum until the facts have been validated.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Makes me think I ought to be listening to more Russian radio. Lies are bad, but both sides' lies are probably better than swallowing one side's lies uncritically.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by yereverluvinuncleber View Post
    It is always wise to be selective on the things you quote. You need to stop believing everything you hear.

    The skill is in defining the truth from all the multiplicity of sources and not just spouting the first bull **** you read.

    What I find truly amazing is how supposedly bright people don't seem to think before chucking their rubbish into the public domain. Time and time again we see that. My advice - use your noggin and keep schtum until the facts have been validated.
    But this is an Ukraine report not Russian. I usually don't quote Russia reports as you will jump up and say it's propaganda.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Casualty numbers are always crap. They've always been crap. Even years after the fact the actual numbers killed and wounded in battles of well documented wars have considerable doubt. During the fighting, the numbers are usually laughably wrong.

    A Ukrainian general stated 9,000 killed so far (not in one counterattack). The Russians state a higher number. I wouldn't trust either one. Here's the source.
    https://www.npr.org/2022/08/24/11192...war-by-numbers

    At this rate, Ukraine can fight forever. Their population is easily capable of handling that.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Interesting war of words. Western media is talking conscription and Russia says it's calling up reservists. Either way, it seems the war will be continuing for the foreseeable future.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Fair enough. The link was from Ukraine report so it might be more, since they wouldn't want that to show.
    I read Putin is calling a recruitment of 300.000,maybe, maybe not, I won't go look it up, too bored.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    Interesting war of words. Western media is talking conscription and Russia says it's calling up reservists. Either way, it seems the war will be continuing for the foreseeable future.
    He also said "and we will defend our interests and i'm not joking" and that got reported as "Putin says he will nuke people who fight back". smh.

  22. #902
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    It's not exactly that but close.
    With a referendum and if poeple choose to be Russianized , automatically the territories are declared Russian official ground, having that in mind, an attack will now be on Russian ground not disputed ground, so Russia will react like been invaded.
    Russia has taken the peripheral sea grounds they also have the rich territories and almost half the population (refer: http://www.geo-ref.net/pdf/ukraine.pdf), if the referendum is successful they will probably establish their grounds and not go further, or maybe take the rest of the sealine. Also Russia and US made their billions fooling Europe(Euro dumps) and selling in extremely high prices to them or moving the load to more reasonable prices to other countries, so they had enough(?).
    So it seems that is more likely for the war to stop than continue for a long time. I think will see find out.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    He also said "and we will defend our interests and i'm not joking" and that got reported as "Putin says he will nuke people who fight back". smh.
    Both sides ae claiming the other is threating them with nuclear weapons.

    With a referendum and if poeple choose to be Russianized , automatically the territories are declared Russian official ground, having that in mind, an attack will now be on Russian ground not disputed ground, so Russia will react like been invaded.
    Invade a country, hold a sham election, declare that land now is part of your country. Nothing to see here, everyone can go home now. lol

    I don't think a rigged election is going to change much.

  24. #904
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Well it is what it is.
    Why rigged? Do they rig elections in Russia also? I thought it was US privilege.
    Last edited by sapator; Sep 21st, 2022 at 04:41 PM. Reason: forgot the t
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Fighting ends when fighting ends. Russia can't declare an end to this without withdrawing, which they won't do. Ukraine won't stop as long as they are getting supplied, and there is no reason for them not to continue getting supplied. Therefore, the fighting has no end in sight. The one thing that could change that would be a Russian surrender in the Kherson region. I don't see that happening, at the moment, but the stage is being set for that.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I'm not sure the Russian clown car can last long enough, they have put in a pretty poor showing. But after the mid-term elections tub thumping in the US and a cold dark Winter across Europe sentiments might change radically. Support for their Ukrainian gangster proxy might dwindle drastically among the NATO brass.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by sapator View Post
    Well it is what it is.
    Why rigged? Do they rig elections in Russia also? I thought it was US privilege.
    That is just so asinine...political opposition in Russia are murdered or falsely imprisoned by the leader of the the country. The last USA election, after intense verification, proofed legitimate. I think you need another week or two off...
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  28. #908
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    What's Jissues problem here? Didn't he see the emoji?
    I think you need to muff it instead of trying to pester me, that it won't work.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I think the issue with the US election was that it wasn't rigged... but that's a whole 'nother can o' worms.

    Putin's speech was pretty scary. I'm more than 90% certain he won't go nuclear but I'd also say the chance is greater than zero at this point.

    My hunch around the referendums is that it's actually tied up with the Russian Law which precludes conscripts from being deployed to combat. This can be superseded in times of war/martial law etc. Declaring those regions as part of Russia reframes the conflict so that, in Russian terms, any conflict in those territories can be declared as an attack on Russian soil which makes such measures much easier politically.

    Putin somewhat shot himself in the foot in terms of conscription and mobilisation by refusing to make a declaration of war back in February. This is part of a strategy to get around that.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Sep 22nd, 2022 at 02:18 PM.
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  30. #910

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I guess it is simplistic to say one man has disrupted contemporary world order...you need a powerful structure around you. But one man is causing famine, fuel disruptions that are going to cause such suffering this winter, so many innocents murdered, generations of educations disrupted, chaos I can't think of to post. World War III is staring us in the face.

    Doom and gloom

    Grins aside you can probably pick any point in recent history with the same dangers...in different context.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I can't remember a time when there wasn't a war going on somewhere.

    This one feels different. Much different than when Russia invaded Afghanistan. More countries are openly supporting and supplying Ukraine. It feels like this one has a chance to grow dramatically.

    Could be that I'm just older and I'm paying more attention. Think I liked it better when I didn't pay attention to the news. lol

  32. #912
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    This is the first war where both sides are using modern weapons in large numbers. In every other war, one side had advanced weapons and the other side was totally out matched and had to resort to guerilla tactics (though that won at times). There has been a long technological arms race between the US and the USSR. There was plenty of speculation (often in fiction) as to how such a battle would play out, based on estimates of the capabilities of either force. This is the first time we are seeing it in practice.

    One of the interesting points is that people are getting all exercised about the numbers of combatants killed. Those numbers are TINY compared to past wars. There were US Civil War battles that had the same casualty counts in a single day (or at least a single battle, depending on which casualty figures you use). There are battles in WW I that killed far more in a day, and may have killed those numbers in a couple hours...and that war went on for years. WW II battles tended to be spread out over longer time periods, but had very high casualty rates. Now we are seeing battles spread out over months, with the casualty rate being in the low tens of thousands.

    Not making any particular statement there, just noting that, A) These are not high casualty counts compared to wars in the industrial age, and B) Countries have sustained far higher casualty rates for years without collapsing.
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  33. #913
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Those are all valid points. In WWII the Russians loses were in the 10's of millions.

    But that was 77yrs ago. Aren't we suppose to grow as humans? I keep hoping we are.

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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    "Interest rates have risen for a seventh time in a row with the Bank of England's benchmark rate at its highest level for 14 years. The Bank of England has increased rates by half a percentage point to 2.25%. The move is an attempt to slow the rate of rising prices."
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  35. #915
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Not sure what your point is, there. Inflation in the US is largely driven by the stimulus during COVID and the supply chain disruption due largely to...well, COVID again, but this time mostly how China handled it (at least currently, as there were other issues prior to that).

    Personally, being primarily a saver, I'm kind of appreciating the higher interest rates.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I need flexibility for the next year so I moved my mortgage onto a tracker rate. Wish I'd been able to go with fixed just before the hike (It's not actually hurt me that much though)

    I guess the point is that the Ukraine conflict is a significant part of our inflation in the UK due to higher energy prices and the interest rate hike is intended to address that inflation. Of course, Brexit and the cost of recovery from Covid are also feeding into inflation so it's far from the only factor.

    Also, our government have just announced a raft of tax cuts because giving the wealthy a stack of extra cash will definitely help curb inflation
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  37. #917
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Personally, being primarily a saver, I'm kind of appreciating the higher interest rates.
    Not sure how that's a benefit.

    The higher rates are a response to inflation but the increase in inflation is larger than the increase in interest rate. So, it's a net loss.

    But it's less of a loss than being in equities right now. Stocks down 20% and inflation at 10%, it's a little depressing.

  38. #918
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    I feel that inflation will drop as a result of this aggressive interest rate raising, but the bonds sold at the higher rate will then just become more valuable, while still paying off at a higher rate. So, you might say that in the near term I take a loss, but it has a long tail that I expect to be beneficial. Might not turn out that way, of course, but that's the way I currently see it.
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  39. #919
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    The problem is that some will respond even to "Russia in nuking US" with "what's your point" ?
    If inflation rate is at its highest level for 14 years and that is something to take lightly then and as we move to winter, an inflation of triple or quintuple value will be responded with "what's your point?".
    Note that I can't really know how England is dealing with the inflation. In Greece the inflation will kill house owners with lawns that are about 90% of the people here but in UK maybe they are more on the rent.
    Anyhow most US people I suppose are in the dark as much as I am for what inflation will do to UK so I think Funky is more on the point of explaining how will this impact them.
    Sorry got sidewalk on that. Interest rates are what will be affecting Greek lawns and inflation goods and services, someone just droped inflation in so I mixed the house lawns by mistake. So I'm not sure how much is the inflation in UK...Let's see:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infla...ion/august2022
    OK by looking at the charts a shtstorm is coming but I'm not an economist so I might be wrong.
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    Re: Current Russia Ukraine tensions

    Quote Originally Posted by sapator View Post
    The problem is that some will respond even to "Russia in nuking US" with "what's your point" ?
    If inflation rate is at its highest level for 14 years and that is something to take lightly then and as we move to winter, an inflation of triple or quintuple value will be responded with "what's your point?".
    Note that I can't really know how England is dealing with the inflation. In Greece the inflation will kill house owners with lawns that are about 90% of the people here but in UK maybe they are more on the rent.
    Anyhow most US people I suppose are in the dark as much as I am for what inflation will do to UK so I think Funky is more on the point of explaining how will this impact them.
    Sorry got sidewalk on that. Interest rates are what will be affecting Greek lawns and inflation goods and services, someone just droped inflation in so I mixed the house lawns by mistake. So I'm not sure how much is the inflation in UK...Let's see:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infla...ion/august2022
    OK by looking at the charts a shtstorm is coming but I'm not an economist so I might be wrong.
    The affects of inflation are serious but your use of the English language in that post was hilarious.

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