Page 4 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 121 to 160 of 190

Thread: Democracy

  1. #121
    King of sapila
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Greece
    Posts
    6,040

    Re: Democracy

    OK. So we just try to minimize the risk on groups that are not really essential and leave the large group of covid spread, taking a risk. Yes I can agree with what you say but there is also a solution for p.e. more trains and buses on the lines and more regular arrivals departure times, so if they did that I would not be to haste to call them out but they don't thus I'm staying with my opinion.
    .

  2. #122
    .NUT jmcilhinney's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Sydney, Australia
    Posts
    107,648

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Zvoni View Post
    what i fail to see is the importance of vacced vs unvacced on a construction site.
    I don't know either but I'm not the one making declarations about it. Have you made any effort to find out? I bet you haven't. Better to just remain ignorant and fell justified ranting than risk there being an actual reason that might stop you.
    Quote Originally Posted by Zvoni View Post
    If he's healthy, he's healthy, that's what's important, vacced or unvacced doesn't matter.
    It may not matter to you but you don't speak for everyone and I'm fairly certain you don't run the construction industry in Singapore. Correct me if I'm wrong but everyone is healthy until they're not and there's a higher chance of unvaccinated people becoming infected with COVID and, if infected, there's a higher chance of their passing it on. You do understand the concept of risk, right?

  3. #123
    .NUT jmcilhinney's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Sydney, Australia
    Posts
    107,648

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by sapator View Post
    there is also a solution for p.e. more trains and buses on the lines and more regular arrivals departure times, so if they did that I would not be to haste to call them out but they don't thus I'm staying with my opinion.
    Do they have extra buses and trains sitting around unused? If things are anything like here then, at the busiest times, they have pretty much all available vehicles in service. I guess they could 3D print a few extra trains for the pandemic.

  4. #124
    King of sapila
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Greece
    Posts
    6,040

    Re: Democracy

    It's complicated. They gave money for media propaganda and held back on medical beds buses and trains even though they suspected a second wave, also they have not doing repairs because of internal fights on where to put the money on. I trust that you are joking on the 3D print else you are just on uncharted terrains talking about Greek behavior.
    Got to go...
    .

  5. #125
    PowerPoster Zvoni's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    To the moon and then left
    Posts
    2,664

    Re: Democracy

    I already wrote what The Solution to this whole crap would be: [SARCASM ON]Stop the World for 4 damned weeks![SARCASM OFF]

    Noone leaves his house/home/apartment for 4 weeks, noone interacts physically with anyone else for 4 weeks. Noone in, Noone out.

    But everyone knows the reason why this can't work:
    "I don't want to go without <insert any inane reason here> during that time"

    In the end, those 4 weeks would be way cheaper for the whole world economy, than the bumbling about we did for the last 18 months.
    And i don't think the mortality rate would be any higher than what it was some months ago

    Humanity has survived thousands of years without toilet paper, smartphones, TV's, Parties, Football-Games and whatever you might like, even catastrophies like the Black Death or the Spanish Flue.
    Isolate the ill, not the healthy

    And with that i'm out if this.

    EDIT: Uh....how could i forget one of the main reasons, why this wouldn't work:
    If my proposed solution would work we wouldn't have some 10 new Pharma-Billionaires......
    Last edited by Zvoni; Sep 22nd, 2021 at 10:03 AM.
    One System to rule them all, One IDE to find them,
    One Code to bring them all, and to the Framework bind them,
    in the Land of Redmond, where the Windows lie
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    People call me crazy because i'm jumping out of perfectly fine airplanes.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    For health reasons i try to avoid reading unformatted Code

  6. #126
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Zvoni View Post
    I think it's actually the other way around (?). At least it was explained to me that way.

    If those tests are 70% reliable (note the different word i use, not effective), and i KNOW i'm not Covid-positive, i have a 30% chance to get a FALSE positive!

    as i said: it's the way it was explained to me. Might be utter garbage for all i know, having now read jmc's explanation
    I think it is more accurate to say that the "85% reliability" statement is made for the public. After all, there are false positives AND false negatives, and those are unlikely to be the same rate, but explaining that to the general public is probably not going to end well.

    If you are COVID free and the test says you have it, then that's a false positive, and that's probably not too bad. If you have COVID and the test says you don't have it, then that would be a false negative, and that seems liable to be a much more costly type of mistake.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  7. #127
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcilhinney View Post
    I have no particular issue with regular testing in place of vaccination
    Well I certainly have an issue with it. I'm not sure how those tests are conducted, these days, so they might be easier, but I believe the earliest COVID tests are an upper nasal passage swab, in which they shove a swab so far up your nose that the inside of your skull ends up itching for the next hour and there is NOTHING you can do about it (well, I didn't try drinking heavily, which might work). The other test was a back of the throat swab...which is likely to reveal my last meal far faster than it would reveal COVID.

    If the tests have gotten easier than those, then sure, go ahead and test, but I think I'd rather get a vaccine shot daily rather than take either of those tests daily.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  8. #128
    .NUT jmcilhinney's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Sydney, Australia
    Posts
    107,648

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Well I certainly have an issue with it.
    You may have been speaking tongue-in-cheek there but, in case not, I didn't mean that I was OK with being tested myself instead of being vaccinated. Rather, I meant that, in places where it was critical that staff remained as COVID-free as possible, I am OK with those staff choosing to be tested regularly rather their having to be vaccinated. Of course, as you point out, a COVID test is not pleasant - I've only had one myself and it wasn't quite as bad as you describe but I'd rather avoid it - so it's not going to be long before people start complaining about having to have precautionary tests every week or even every few days.

  9. #129
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    I know what you meant, and I didn't have a problem with that. I'm not sure I was quite tongue-in-cheek, though. I haven't had a COVID test. The similar tests I had were for other things (whooping cough was the nasal swab and strep was the throat swab, both negative), but they were horrid. I believe that most people would likely prefer a shot in the arm to either one, if the experience was all that mattered.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  10. #130
    PowerPoster
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    5,631

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcilhinney View Post
    ...let's say that a vaccinated person is 50% less likely to contract COVID and 50% less likely to infect another person.
    Ok, 4-times less chance to "carry over" the virus...

    From a *single encounter* that is!

    Now, what happens if you allow free mingling again?
    How many encounters per day are happening among the vacced (who don't test anymore)?

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcilhinney View Post
    Do you have any actual facts to back up your conclusion...
    Quite recently there was a case in Münster, where 385 entered a "party-event" under the so called "2G-rule" which says:
    - only vacinnated people were allowed
    - or "healthy-again" people who already got the virus (and therefore antibodies)

    A few days after that event, 86 were "infected or re-infected with covid".

    So, that's one case where they detected this (the city following up on each of the party-goers).

    And yes, my logic says that "only one such event" (with concrete numbers) is enough,
    to do my own math, especially when you consider, that this happens in countless other encounters every day,
    where vaccinated people are allowed again to "mingle with each other unrestricted",
    especially when the official media-outlets even suggest to them that:
    "You are the 'good citizens' ... covid is a thing of the past for you" (when that's clearly not the case).

    It certainly helps to explain the "curves" in high-vacced countries like Israel.

    Olaf

  11. #131
    Hyperactive Member Peter Porter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    320

    Re: Democracy

    You know the Covid test isn't bad when done by someone who's not in a rush to get you out of their sight. The first time it felt like the nurse was tryin' to widen my nasal passage, but everyone that followed, well except for a nurse we hired to perform this test last week, done it perfectly, swiping enough gook without causing pain.

    Hey, where you all live, can you buy self tests? In Germany we can, plus my employer gives us one to take home once a week if we ask for it, even though we all have to take an on-site test with nurse Ratched.
    Last edited by Peter Porter; Sep 22nd, 2021 at 02:31 PM.

  12. #132
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    Can't say whether self tests are available around here.

    Personally, I've been taking full advantage of the situation to not commute. If I don't have to spend an hour plus in the car each day, I'm all for it.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  13. #133
    Hyperactive Member Peter Porter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    320

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Can't say whether self tests are available around here.
    We can buy self-tests at our pharmacys and supermarkets. I remember reading months ago that there were supply issues with these tests in the US. Hopefully that's not the case anymore.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Personally, I've been taking full advantage of the situation to not commute. If I don't have to spend an hour plus in the car each day, I'm all for it.
    I also hate long trips, but if I have to go anywhere, even before Covid, I prefer driving. And I did just that two weeks ago, almost 7 hours to get to Berlin. What sucked I had to take the train back during a rail strike! I made the mistake of driving my hoopty, which broke down, instead of driving my nice car. The overcrowding was a nightmare!

    It was too late in the day to rent a car, so I had no choice but to take the train home!

  14. #134
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Porter View Post
    We can buy self-tests at our pharmacys and supermarkets. I remember reading months ago that there were supply issues with these tests in the US. Hopefully that's not the case anymore.
    There were problems early last year. Presumably those have been resolved, and hopefully not by "just remove them all and forget about it."
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  15. #135
    Hyperactive Member Peter Porter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    320

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Zvoni View Post
    I already wrote what The Solution to this whole crap would be:
    [SARCASM ON] Stop the World for 4 damned weeks! [SARCASM OFF]

    No one leaves his house/home/apartment for 4 weeks. No one interacts physically with anyone else for 4 weeks. No one in, no one out.
    Omg, that will work! Who needs food, drinks, toothpaste, soap and toilete paper! We need to unite... Um, I mean aggresively isolate for the greater good, even if it kills us!


    Quote Originally Posted by Zvoni View Post
    But everyone knows the reason why this can't work:
    "I don't want to go without <insert any inane reason here> during that time"
    Yeah... I can't go without all of the above in my first reply during that time. Don't you hate selfish people needing that stuff to live?


    Quote Originally Posted by Zvoni View Post
    Isolate the ill, not the healthy
    Make-up your mind, Zvoni!


    I couldn't resist taking that last one out of context.

    I'm just kidding around, Zvoni!
    Last edited by Peter Porter; Sep 22nd, 2021 at 06:14 PM.

  16. #136
    .NUT jmcilhinney's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Sydney, Australia
    Posts
    107,648

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Schmidt View Post
    my logic says that "only one such event" (with concrete numbers) is enough
    Then you are being unscientific. It is certainly noteworthy and a reason to investigate further. I would certainly not have denied right from the start that we cannot simply go back to normal for vaccinated people and assume everything will be OK, but that you are seemingly so strongly convinced by a single instance suggests that there is some confirmation bias at work.

  17. #137
    PowerPoster
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    22,867

    Re: Democracy

    Well this seems to be the neo-COVID thread now, so let's explode some heads:


  18. #138
    PowerPoster
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    5,631

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Well this seems to be the neo-COVID thread now, so let's explode some heads:

    This kind of video is exactly what I mean, because propaganda-stuff like that is the reason,
    why we see these recent curves (despite the vaccinations).

    E.g. the part which starts from 2:43...
    - where they try to suggest, that "being vaccinated, will protect the people around you"

    And then, from 2:50...
    - they try to suggest that the virus "mutates and spreads only among the unvaccinated".

    This is sooo wrong (on both accounts) - but sadly the exact same "vibe" is currently transported in all "western media-outlets".

    Vaccinated people *are* definitely able to "spread the virus".
    And the percentage of "carriers" among the vaccinated is (IMO) much higher in all countries,
    who allowed the vaccinated to mingle unrestricted (whilst still "blocking" the unvaccinated from mingling).

    @jmcilhinney
    (regarding the risk of spreading the virus among vaccinated people, when they are allowed to mingle).

    There is no "bias" - and the statistics-math-formula is quite simple:
    Debug.Print 1 - ((1 - ProbSpread)^MinglingEncounters)

    If we just look at a "declared normal again" week of a vaccinated person, the two variables might be:
    - ProbSpread = 0.15 ... (lesser than the ProbSpread-value of unvacced people)
    - MinglingEncounters = 35 ... (7 days * just 5 encounters with other vacced people, and let's throw in "a small party at the weekend")

    Debug.Print 1 - ((1 - 0.15)^35) '<- gives 0.9966

    And now they currently wonder over here, where this "sudden increase of infections among the unvacced kids is coming from"...

    It's because of "not doing the math" (or deliberately ignoring it, who knows) -
    accompanied by wrong encouragements like seen in the video from 2:43.

    So, no - if you allow vaccinated people to mingle, then you are *endangering* the families
    (because when you mingle, you will become a "carrier" yourself with near certainty after only one week).

    HTH

    Olaf

  19. #139
    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Posts
    3,601

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Well this seems to be the neo-COVID thread now, so let's explode some heads:

    Like your doing that is something new...you have been doing that consistently. And as I responded earlier, there is a difference between someone's head exploding and shaking your head in incredulous disbelief at a post.
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

  20. #140
    Hyperactive Member Peter Porter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    320

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Well this seems to be the neo-COVID thread now, so let's explode some heads:

    Dil, I don't see anyone losing their minds.

    This video will add to the conversation, but it's not gonna push anyone over the edge.

    And if you're wondering, Olaf is fine!
    Last edited by Peter Porter; Sep 23rd, 2021 at 05:58 AM.

  21. #141
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    An obscure body in the SK system. The inhabitants call it Earth
    Posts
    7,719

    Re: Democracy

    BTW Self tests(aka lateral flow tests) over here have been deliberately designed to favour false positive over false negatives. The idea is that, if you get a positive, you can go and get a professionally administered test to confirm it. If you get a negative you can be confident that you're clean (I believe the accuracy is over 95% for negatives but there has been some debate).

    As for whether testing can replace vaccination - partly. By remaining unvaccinated you essentially represent an increased risk to the rest of us for a few reasons:-
    1. You're more likely to catch it so you're more like to infect us. If we're vaccinated that increased risk is very small but does exist. I think you could probably argue it's negligible though.
    2. You're more likely to catch it so you're more likely to infect those that can't (as opposed to won't) be vaccinated. This is a small but significant group which is really being overlooked in these discussions.
    3. You're more likely to catch it so you are more likely to incubate an escape virus... if that happens we're ALL back to square 1.

    regular testing can certainly help mitigate 1 and 2, if you test positive you simply self isolate. But it does not help at all with 3 because, by the time you test positive, it's already too late.

    "being vaccinated, will protect the people around you"
    Why do you think that's incorrect? If you are vaccinated you less likely to contract the virus and, if you do, you will carry a much lower viral load. So you are much less likely to be a carrier and, if you are, you are much less likely to transmit.

    "mutates and spreads only among the unvaccinated"
    That's not what the clip says although I agree you can interpret the wording as that if you really want to. The point being made, though, is simply that the more people remain unvaccinated, the more easily the virus can spread, the more people will be incubating it at any given time so the more chance there is of an escape variant evolving. I feel like you're arguing the semantics to avoid engaging with the substantive point.

    If the argument being made is that the vaccinated should not be allowed to mingle then I think there's a discussion to be had but note that this is not an argument against vaccination.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill

    Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd

  22. #142
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Porter View Post
    Omg, that will work! Who needs food, drinks, toothpaste, soap and toilete paper! We need to unite... Um, I mean aggresively isolate for the greater good, even if it kills us!
    I could do it. As long as I was hiking, then I'd need supply drops, at times, as the most I have ever carried was a bit over two weeks worth, but if I was not moving around all the time, or doing loops that would allow me to get back to some central cache, then I'd totally be up for it.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  23. #143
    .NUT jmcilhinney's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Sydney, Australia
    Posts
    107,648

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    If the argument being made is that the vaccinated should not be allowed to mingle then I think there's a discussion to be had but note that this is not an argument against vaccination.
    It seems to me that the argument being made is that if an unvaccinated person gets infected then they will show symptoms, get tested and then self-isolate, while a vaccinated person won't show symptoms and so won't get tested and so won't self-isolate and is therefore of greater risk to those around them. If we accept the premise that vaccinated and infected people will be exposed to others for a longer period than unvaccinated and infected people, it then comes down to the maths of whether highly infectious for a short time is more or less dangerous than less infectious for a longer time. The experts in the field the world over seem to concur that less infectious for a longer time is less dangerous but it appears that Olaf is convinced based on a single anecdote and...??? I guess Olaf wins then, based on his sound, scientific reasoning.

  24. #144
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    There seems to be a view that vaccination can work the same mechanism as antibiotic resistance. That may or may not be true, we don't know enough, yet, but the mechanism isn't the same.

    With antibiotic resistance, you have a population of related bacteria that are happily living their lives, eating, excreting, reproducing, and so on. Then some antibiotic comes along and messes with one of those three things. It impacts some members of the population more than others, because they are all a bit different, and a bunch are killed off as a result. Those that remain, so long as some remain, are better at shrugging off that antibiotic, but are probably less good at being bacteria. After all, if the difference that allows them to avoid the antibiotic was all that useful otherwise, then everybody would have it.

    When it comes to viruses, they aren't doing anything other than reproducing, and most don't anyways. Most don't encounter a suitable target and die. A minority DO find a suitable attachment point, and it happens to be on a cell that they can use to reproduce. What the antibodies are doing is making it less likely that they encounter a suitable target. They aren't changing the results of what happens when a suitable target is encountered.

    So, there IS a bit of room for mutation, but it's quite a bit more subtle than what happens with antibiotics and bacteria. If the antibodies work, then your body is to the virus, about as useful as a block of wood.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  25. #145
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcilhinney View Post
    It seems to me that the argument being made is that if an unvaccinated person gets infected then they will show symptoms, get tested and then self-isolate, while a vaccinated person won't show symptoms and so won't get tested and so won't self-isolate and is therefore of greater risk to those around them. If we accept the premise that vaccinated and infected people will be exposed to others for a longer period than unvaccinated and infected people, it then comes down to the maths of whether highly infectious for a short time is more or less dangerous than less infectious for a longer time.
    There's more to the equation than that, though. You also have to factor in whether vaccinated and unvaccinated are equally likely to become infected for the same exposure. I believe the evidence is pretty strong that this is not the case. The spread rate has to be sufficient for the population infection to be self-sustaining. With unvaccinated, this is clearly the case, or the infection wouldn't have made it out of Wuhan. With vaccinated, it isn't clear that this is the case, in which case it wouldn't matter what vaccinated people did so long as everybody was either vaccinated or recovered.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  26. #146
    .NUT jmcilhinney's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Sydney, Australia
    Posts
    107,648

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    There's more to the equation than that, though. You also have to factor in whether vaccinated and unvaccinated are equally likely to become infected for the same exposure. I believe the evidence is pretty strong that this is not the case. The spread rate has to be sufficient for the population infection to be self-sustaining. With unvaccinated, this is clearly the case, or the infection wouldn't have made it out of Wuhan. With vaccinated, it isn't clear that this is the case, in which case it wouldn't matter what vaccinated people did so long as everybody was either vaccinated or recovered.
    Quite so. Any worthwhile conclusion requires a genuine quantitative analysis. If only there were epidemiologists and other scientists and statisticians around the world who could do that. Oh well, at least we have Olaf. His "seems about right" approach is clearly the next nest option.

  27. #147
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    An obscure body in the SK system. The inhabitants call it Earth
    Posts
    7,719

    Re: Democracy

    It seems to me that the argument being made is that if an unvaccinated person gets infected then they will show symptoms, get tested and then self-isolate, while a vaccinated person won't show symptoms and so won't get tested and so won't self-isolate and is therefore of greater risk to those around them.
    Oh I see. I'd completely missed that nuance. I can see some logic there but we know that this virus is often asymptomatic and, even when it's not, you can spread before the symptoms show - that's one of the main reasons this virus was so prolific in the first place. Given that asymptomatic spread I don't arrive at the same conclusion as Olaf but, yeah, I'd want to see some and I'll put my trust in actual medical bodies for that.

    Those that remain, so long as some remain, are better at shrugging off that antibiotic
    Now here's something I'm not quite clear on. Putting aside viruses for a sec and concentrating on bacteria, I don't believe the introduction of the anti-biotic directly causes any of the bacteria to strengthen their resistance. Rather, it simply gets rid of those which aren't resistant meaning the population left behind would be stronger on average but weaker in total. I know that anti body resistant bacteria (e.g. MRSA) have evolved over time but my understanding is that that's a very long process - years. It's not driven by the presence of anti-biotics but rather by normal evolution.

    I'm not sure how that would apply to Viruses though. As you say, Viruses aren't "living" in the same was bacteria are so they don't evolve through reproduction. The only opportunity they get to evolve is at the point infecting the DNA of a cell.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill

    Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd

  28. #148
    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Posts
    3,601

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Oh I see. I'd completely missed that nuance. I can see some logic there but we know that this virus is often asymptomatic and, even when it's not, you can spread before the symptoms show - that's one of the main reasons this virus was so prolific in the first place. Given that asymptomatic spread I don't arrive at the same conclusion as Olaf but, yeah, I'd want to see some and I'll put my trust in actual medical bodies for that.

    Now here's something I'm not quite clear on. Putting aside viruses for a sec and concentrating on bacteria, I don't believe the introduction of the anti-biotic directly causes any of the bacteria to strengthen their resistance. Rather, it simply gets rid of those which aren't resistant meaning the population left behind would be stronger on average but weaker in total. I know that anti body resistant bacteria (e.g. MRSA) have evolved over time but my understanding is that that's a very long process - years. It's not driven by the presence of anti-biotics but rather by normal evolution.

    I'm not sure how that would apply to Viruses though. As you say, Viruses aren't "living" in the same was bacteria are so they don't evolve through reproduction. The only opportunity they get to evolve is at the point infecting the DNA of a cell.
    But there is a serious issue with over prescribing anti-biotics. I'm just throwing it out there as information.

    See below:
    https://kidshealth.org/en/parents/an...c-overuse.html
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

  29. #149
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post

    Now here's something I'm not quite clear on. Putting aside viruses for a sec and concentrating on bacteria, I don't believe the introduction of the anti-biotic directly causes any of the bacteria to strengthen their resistance. Rather, it simply gets rid of those which aren't resistant meaning the population left behind would be stronger on average but weaker in total. I know that anti body resistant bacteria (e.g. MRSA) have evolved over time but my understanding is that that's a very long process - years. It's not driven by the presence of anti-biotics but rather by normal evolution.
    Mostly right. The antibiotic will straight up kill a bunch, badly wound a few more, and perhaps not touch some (or maybe lightly wound them). What remains is those who have differences that allow them to survive the antibiotic at the level encountered. That last part 'at the level encountered' is why people are told to take the full course of antibiotics, because you want to kill off those that are just damaged by a lesser dose. Of course, any that are unharmed will remain.

    What's odd about bacteria is that they DO exchange genetic material, almost as if they had sexual reproduction. It isn't the same...in pretty much any way, but they can form a tunnel from one to the next and swap genetic material. What this means is that the survivors can pass that resistance horizontally, and I believe they don't even have to stay within the same species. I don't know what drives this. I don't know how often this kind of exchange takes place, or what the circumstances are around it....though I have it on good authority that alcohol is involved when the exchange is between bacteria species.

    Anyways, the point is that, because of this lateral transmission ability, the spread of antibiotic resistance could, theoretically, be REALLY fast.

    Also, some recent studies have shown that in the absence of antibiotics, some bacteria colonies that have resistance will lose that resistance, which I would expect to be due to the resistance mechanism being more costly than the alternative. In other words, those that aren't resistant will outcompete those that are, so long as the antibiotics aren't around to select for the resistance.
    Last edited by Shaggy Hiker; Sep 23rd, 2021 at 04:31 PM.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  30. #150
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    The population of viruses should be the population that is best able to reproduce. It seems to me that those that are less competitive should still be around, though, even as a more competitive strain takes over. For example, delta is far more infectious than the original COVID, so it is prevalent, but the original COVID should still be around, along with alpha, beta, and any others. They'll all swirl around at greater or lesser levels until general vaccination and infection survival (and non-survival, of course) results in a population where the virus can't find a new host to infect.

    What seems like it should be the ideal for a virus is to cause no symptoms at all, so long as it can also provoke no response. SARS went away fast because a person had symptoms before they could transmit the virus, so it was easy to wipe out the virus through quarantine. With COVID, since you are infectious for a few days before you have any symptoms (and you may never have any), the virus is nearly ideal.

    What would be superior to that would be a virus that caused no symptoms at all....oh wait, that could be a transposon.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  31. #151
    PowerPoster
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    5,631

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    The spread rate has to be sufficient for the population infection to be self-sustaining...

    ...With vaccinated, it isn't clear that this is the case
    Ok, again...
    In germany the vaccinated are allowed to go "clubbing" (along with the "recovered").

    Only people out of these two groups are allowed into the clubs (no entry for the unvacced).

    I've already brought an example, where 385 people of these two groups entered a club in Münster.
    A few days later, 86 of them were infected.

    On request, the city confirmed that they "followed up on everybody" - and that there
    was no unvaccinated person among the 385 who entered (aside from the people in the "recovered" group).

    Would like to hear, how you'd explain these results...
    ...or why anybody would need "more cases like that",
    to be convinced that the D-variant is able to "circulate quite happily" among the vacced.

    Olaf

  32. #152
    PowerPoster
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    22,867

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    I'm not sure how that would apply to Viruses though. As you say, Viruses aren't "living" in the same was bacteria are so they don't evolve through reproduction. The only opportunity they get to evolve is at the point infecting the DNA of a cell.
    What gives you this idea?

    If you are uncomfortable saying "reproduction" there is certainly "replication." And no, it is not limited to the moment of "infecting the DNA" of host cells.

    It replicates by hijacking the replication mechanism of an infected cell, much like 50% of the question posts we see these days are about hijacking somebody else's application. Mutations occur mainly through replication transcription errors.

    But if Family Guy was too confusing I'm not sure this old Yale video can help you:

    Last edited by dilettante; Sep 23rd, 2021 at 04:04 PM.

  33. #153
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by Schmidt View Post
    Ok, again...
    In germany the vaccinated are allowed to go "clubbing" (along with the "recovered").
    I don't do clubbing, so I may be a bit incorrect in my perception of that scene, but my perception is that it is somewhat excessive when it comes to mingling: Close together, vigorous activity, heavy breathing, and so forth. Frankly, 86 out of 385 seems like it might not even measure up to the spread of a single case of herpes in that environment.

    My point is: Clubbing seems ideally suited to spread absolutely ANYTHING. If your worried about getting sick, and not just with COVID, clubbing seems like the worst possible thing to do short of a colossal group orgy.

    People always need to be a bit rational.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  34. #154
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Idaho
    Posts
    36,629

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    What gives you this idea?
    Oops, that's a mis-quote. That wasn't my writing, that was Funky D. I had quoted him and added the close quote tag, but neglected to erase the part that I wasn't quoting. I've fixed up my post, so what you quoted is no longer there. However, if you look back a bit, you'll find the original version in FD's post.

    You're right, in general, though, and especially when it comes to COVID. Since COVID is an RNA virus, it doesn't mess with the DNA at all. Other types of viruses can, but an RNA virus is just hijacking the transcription mechanisms to reproduce. That's where mutation errors can enter the system.

    Still, FD also has a point. Since bacteria can pass genetic material from bacteria to bacteria, mutations can spread without reproduction. I think they can also happen without either gene transfer OR reproduction, though, because transposons should be able to result in mutations, or mutation like changes, just during normal cell metabolism. Viruses ONLY get to mutate during the reproduction cycle, as far as I am aware.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  35. #155
    PowerPoster
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    22,867

    Re: Democracy

    That makes sense, I was confused by the broken quoting markup.

  36. #156
    Hyperactive Member Peter Porter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    320

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Well this seems to be the neo-COVID thread now, so let's explode some heads:
    Not sure if any of my fellow Germans brought this up, but here in Germany starting November 1st, there will be no more sick pay for unvaccinated people who have to go into quarantine. They have the freedom to say no to the shots, but it will cost them if they get infected!

    After October 11th, no more free rapid tests. Only those who can't get vaxed for medical reasons will be the only ones allowed access to free tests.

    Dil, that's how you rile people up! Well, in Germany.
    Last edited by Peter Porter; Sep 24th, 2021 at 05:32 AM.

  37. #157

    Thread Starter
    Frenzied Member
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    Central Europe
    Posts
    1,338

    Re: Democracy

    And we are heading to a scenario where a human from 2yrs old till death has to get an injection every year from stock traded pharmaceutical companies to be allowed to go to kindergarden, school, work and so on.

    this is not the world i want to live in.

    some studies say, and this was also brought up during the FDA hearing around the third jab a few days ago, that more people die because of the vaccine than because of covid. this conclusion is drawn by considering the notorious and well researched underreporting of adverse events.

  38. #158

    Thread Starter
    Frenzied Member
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    Central Europe
    Posts
    1,338

    Re: Democracy

    and in regards to antibiotics: there were plans to reserve 5 groups of antibiotics for human use only to ensure that no resistencies are deveolped. Guess what the EU parlament did? The rejected that and these antibiotics can now all be used in livestock farming where it is known to breed resistent variants. so whom are they serving with this verdict?

  39. #159
    PowerPoster
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    22,867

    Re: Democracy

    Anything to keep agricultural product dumping in former colonies profitable while staving the local farmers.

  40. #160
    Hyperactive Member Peter Porter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    320

    Re: Democracy

    Quote Originally Posted by digitalShaman View Post
    And we are heading to a scenario where a human from 2yrs old till death has to get an injection every year from stock traded pharmaceutical companies to be allowed to go to kindergarden, school, work and so on.

    this is not the world i want to live in.

    some studies say, and this was also brought up during the FDA hearing around the third jab a few days ago, that more people die because of the vaccine than because of covid. this conclusion is drawn by considering the notorious and well researched underreporting of adverse events.
    Now I'm sorry I posted before this! I edited my comment, removing the second to last line, but I'm sure all sides would've saw it as a possibility. Even though, it wasn't a good idea on my part to put it out there.

    I'm exiting out of this conversation!
    Last edited by Peter Porter; Sep 24th, 2021 at 10:56 AM.

Page 4 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  



Click Here to Expand Forum to Full Width