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Thread: [RESOLVED] Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

  1. #721
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Welcome to posting (I reckon I lurked for at least a year before actually joining)

    To be fair, that study shows eBay and Amazon as performing best out of the market places, which is probably what people would expect, but... yeah... not really a good picture for any of them.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by GuiltyBedflower View Post
    Long time lurker, first time poster:

    a lot of biggest online marketplaces, such as ebay, *******, craigslist and so on are quite okay with fake medicine or test kits being sold on their website.

    quite an interesting research has been done and an interesting scraping project too!
    So is the FDA
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    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    He seems pretty credible as an expert to me. And, in latest one, he was definitely at pains to point out that we can't guarantee antibody immunity. That made me think there may have been some recent study (or something similar) that had led to him changing his tone.
    I have done a fair amount of looking into this and as far as i can see there is nothing definitive. There has been though a lot of people though talking about herd immunity and i think its just that scientists and doctor are trying to push back on the narrative that this is a definite thing when we just dont know enough yet.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    It's sort of funny that center-right Clintonistas want to paint anyone to their left as "right wing."

    I'm beginning to wonder if the "spectrum" is actually a circle in their hindbrains rather than a geometric line. The reality is probably more of a bent line centered on globalist authoritarians (a.k.a. "Tories") fighting battles against two very different camps of populists at each end.

    Pushback against the lockdowns' economic destruction is not a sole phenomenon of the "far right" as the complicit media have portrayed it:



    I don't know what the correct approach is and I've stayed as locked down myself as possible, but I am beginning to wonder what might really be going on.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Don’t be silenced by 'whataboutism' silencing tactic

    If you ask a person condemning a politician he doesn’t like why similar behavior by a politician he likes never earned his disdain, prepare to be accused of “whataboutism.”
    Use of the term can be translated as "Oh ****, I've been caught and my house of cards is coming down."

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Don’t be silenced by 'whataboutism' silencing tactic



    Use of the term can be translated as "Oh ****, I've been caught and my house of cards is coming down."
    That's not what I got from that article at all. They're saying the whataboutism is the person deflecting the question in an attempt to avoid and invalidate it because "your guy" did the same thing. It isn't "oh ****, I've been caught and my house of cards is coming down." it's "Your point isn't valid because your guy did it too!".

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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    It's sort of funny that center-right Clintonistas want to paint anyone to their left as "right wing."

    I'm beginning to wonder if the "spectrum" is actually a circle in their hindbrains rather than a geometric line. The reality is probably more of a bent line centered on globalist authoritarians (a.k.a. "Tories") fighting battles against two very different camps of populists at each end.
    It's a horseshoe, not a straight line. Once you get to the ends, they are pretty close together, but not at exactly the same place. More like: Similar means, similar reasoning, just not quite the same goals.

    I don't know what the correct approach is and I've stayed as locked down myself as possible, but I am beginning to wonder what might really be going on.
    I've been thinking about this, lately. I have no issue with being locked down. Makes no difference to me, at this point in the year. They want me to work form home and not spend an hour in traffic each day? Sure, that works for me. Heck, I was trying to push up from two days of telecommuting to three, and then possibly to four. Now they are saying all five. Not complaining.

    However, Idaho has about 1,700 cases statewide, at this time. The bulk of those are in the Boise area, but the Boise area also has the bulk of the population of the state, too. So, if we have about 1,000 cases, spread through a population of around 400,000 (Boise plus surrounding suburbs), that is only 0.25% of the people, many of whom would be clustered. My odds of encountering even one person is pretty low...unless I encounter a whole lot of people.

    On the other hand, this is a pretty locked down state. We've been more aggressive than several surrounding states. If that had not been the case, then the spread through the community would have been greater and indiscriminate. So, we've reduced the odds of encounter greatly due to the aggressive social distancing. If we didn't do that, what would have happened? It's a bit hard to say for certain in a state that is mostly rural areas.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    It's sort of funny that center-right Clintonistas want to paint anyone to their left as "right wing."
    Just to be clear, I didn't paint you as right wing. If you go back and read my post you'll see I explicitly avoided doing so. I did that because I have no idea where you're politics lie because I've never seen you actually assert your own position. Hence my assertion of JAQing, because if you never take a position you never have to defend one. Attacking a position is easy but largely pointless. Proposing and defending one is harder but has worth.

    As for WhatAboutism, here's your quote from post 608: "My point is that demonizing Trump regarding China is pointless since his opposition now tries doing the same on steroids." You can argue whether whataboutism is a valid form of argument or not (I personally think it's simple deflection), but you're really going to struggle to make the case that you're not engaging in it.

    Reading between the lines I get the impression you might be "far" left (scare quotes because I feel the left in America falls far to the right of the left in Europe), in which case you'd probably find our politics approximately line up. I'm centre left in Europe which seems roughly similar to far left in the US. Certainly I agree with you on the only position you've come close to actually proposing (nationally provided health care) although even then you didn't assert a defined position and instead couched it in terms of what you didn't like rather than what you did, leaving your own position uncertain.

    It's a horseshoe, not a straight line
    I hear that a lot and I disagree with it. The concept of politics being a line of any shape doesn't really stand up. It's a swirly, amorphous blob of coagulated opinions. The classic left right thing can provide a handy shortcut as long as everyone understands that's all it is. Once you start twisting that line into loops and horseshoes you're really just taking a flawed analogy and adding better flaws.

    My odds of encountering even one person is pretty low...unless I encounter a whole lot of people.
    I've been thinking about this too. Should people in low population areas be subject to the same lockdown conditions as people high population areas? On the surface I'd say, no, it seems silly. But then I had a conversation with my Dad (who's high risk due to age but lives in a low population area) and he disagreed. "Funky," he said, cause that's what he calls me, "if they let me out of lockdown, the first thing I'd do is go down the pub." The point was that while lifting lockdowns in rural areas might be lower risk than in cities, it's still a substantial risk if people use it for socialising. I think that basically agrees with your point that encountering a few people is unlikely unless you encounter a lot.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Trump, his surrogates, and Faux news are really turning up the heat on blaming China for the virus. They are implying China had very nefarious intents. Trump won't name the leader of China though. He stays away from that. Here is what caught my ear yesterday when Trump was speaking. He was asked what kind of punishments he could use against China. One of the things he mentioned was more tariffs.

    My god what a moron! No matter how many times he is told, and it is reported on, he continues to say China is paying for the tariffs. He knows that isn't true, Americans are paying for them, but he just goes on and on. But saying to punish China he'll use tariffs, when it will punish Americans, just really throws me into a tizzy. What a moron...
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    To be fair, it is starting to sound increasingly like China wasn't quite as forthcoming as they could have been when this started although I'm finding it difficult to find anything concrete either way. But, yeah, the "they'll do anything to stop me getting re-elected" comment was particularly bizarre.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    So, is Kim Jong un or not un?

    That will color our relationship with China more than the virus if he's not un.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I still wonder how much of the thinking out there aligns with Dylan Ratigan's rant to Jimmy Dore above.

    He seems convinced that stay-at-home/lockdown orders are being exploited as a way to consolidate more of the economy into the hands of big business and the big banks. He even seems to go further, suggesting this is an attempt at social and economic engineering rather than just exploitation of fortuitous circumstances.

    Whether engineered, merely taken advantage of cynically, or by coincidence though... there does seem to be some truth in the net result he suggests.

    I haven't seen it examined on "the right" so much as emoted in pain as small businesses and workers suffer. A few like Ratigan on "the left" seem to be trying to dissect and determine what may really be going on.

    All of that is on top of the biological suffering due to the pandemic itself.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Another portion of that discussion:


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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    IMO, in the next 10 years, the relationship between China and the United States will become worse and worse. After this difficult 10 years, the relationship between China and the United States will improve again.
    Last edited by dreammanor; May 1st, 2020 at 11:56 AM.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Should people in low population areas be subject to the same lockdown conditions as people high population areas?
    I'd say no but how do you micro manage a state like that. I live in Ca. and it has lots of densely populated areas but because of the large size of Ca there is also lots of rural areas. We have counties with no virus cases. The problem is already so complex it doesn't need more complexity added.

    I'm curious what the next two or three weeks brings, if these early reopenings are successful then all the states will follow. I do worry the politicians will be politicians and try to find ways to hide the truth if the virus spread worsens.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    If they open up smaller communities, then the larger ones will flock to them. They've talked about removing lockdown on my town because we only have 4 cases in a population of ~150,000, but if we open up, people from larger cities like Toronto or Ottawa will definitely come into town for their fixes.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Yeah. I can imagine that a small town with a duplex or triplex theater that started showing 1st-run flicks again would find itself quickly overrun with bored urban hipsters.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I think you're probably right about people flocking to open areas. Hell, the first weekend of the lockdown over here enough douchebags flocked to Snowdon to over crowd it. That's a mountain with it's own freakin' national park for godsake. How do you overcrowd that?

    If you could somehow keep the cities locked down but open up the countryside and prevent travel between the two it could work but I've no idea how you would police that.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I think you're probably right about people flocking to open areas. Hell, the first weekend of the lockdown over here enough douchebags flocked to Snowdon to over crowd it. That's a mountain with it's own freakin' national park for godsake. How do you overcrowd that?

    If you could somehow keep the cities locked down but open up the countryside and prevent travel between the two it could work but I've no idea how you would police that.
    There's no probably about it... at first the local gumints here tried to close dem beaches to prevent things from breaking out, you know, doing the responsible thing? Then some bum wipe got the crazy idea of asking the State Attorney General for an opinion if they had the autoritay to do that... in short he replied, they do not, that in time of crisis the powers of execution lay solely with the Govenor. So the beaches were re-opened one day.... one day..... dear gawd it was a disaster. That following Monday the state shut down all public access to beaches, lakes, rivers, etc. Honestly, I'm surprised there wasn't a huge spike in reported cases after that.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    We saw a spike exactly 7 days after the bank holiday. We were sill locked down but, yeah, lots of people went out and you can see the effect.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.



    It sounds to me like officials may well know the truth and are taking time to gradually spin it out in bits and pieces so people don't over react.

    That truth is probably that effective vaccines are still far off and that the only real hope is for everyone to get infected so the "great winnowing" can occur. Mitigation efforts may only be a set of ways to let the health care system stretch out its resources to assist those who get seriously ill rather than becoming overwhelmed.

    This might help explain the dire projections on the one hand, yet moves to "open up" lockdowns at the same time.

    We may not be far off now from the day when they let this cat out of the bag. Only an early vaccine might be able to change the picture.

    Feels more than a little bit Malthusian.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Conspiracy UNCOVERED!



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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Vaccines are a bit of an arms race. China is testing (early stages), the US, EU and India are all getting close. However, nobody can create the number of vaccines that would be needed for the world, and the various countries are dancing around the obvious result: They intend to use the vaccines for themselves first, and share...maybe.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    We've known since the beginning that a vaccine could take upwards of a year to develop. We still haven't found one for HIV and that broke over 30 years ago. Vaccines aren't quick to develop and there's no guarantee that one will be developed at all. And you're right that lockdowns are primarily to do with preventing the health services from being overwhelmed. That's why you've been hearing about "flattening the curve" since the very beginning of this. It's not news and I'm not sure that CNN article is claiming it as news.

    The news in that article is that the death toll has been much, much higher than the Whitehouse has been predicting and that Trump's push to reopen is dangerously optimistic. If he continues to pursue it, it will be responsible for tens of thousands of additional deaths.

    There are two possible ways in which a pandemic ends.
    1. Total containment leading the virus to die out. This is pursued via contact tracing and aggressive quarantine of those likely to have been affected. Note that this is extremely unlikely to be successful but can and has worked in the past. However, it's no longer pursuable as soon as the virus has spread beyond your ability to trace it. In the case of Corona it's almost certain that this had failed before anyone was even aware it was a thing.
    2. Herd immunity. This can either be achieved via a vaccine or by enough people becoming infected and surviving. With most viruses that we have a prior knowledge of we have a fighting chance of developing a vaccine promptly enough so that it can be a significant factor in achieving herd immunity but with a new and particularly virulent virus like Corona it's a mitigation at best.

    That might sound all doom and gloom but it may not as bad as it sounds. Viruses with an R factor > 1 (R is the number of people a typical carrier will infect) describe some form of exponential curve when they start out with the size of the exponent being a function of R and that makes them look damn scary. But the immunity rate in the absence of a vaccine, describes the same curve with a lag (a vaccine reduces and potentially removes the lag). Further, as herd immunity increases, the lack of vectors the virus can use to find infectible targets further flattens the infection curve, leading to an S curve. Note that the risk at any point in time is not represented by the area under the infection curve on the graph as many people assume, it's described by the area between the infection curve and the immunity curve. So if you can be highly successful in flattening the infection curve you can reduce the risk towards zero as 1. the immunity curve rises to meet it and 2. the infection curve is suppressed by the reduction in infectible population. Realistically you'll never achieve zero but if you can keep the R rating below 1 then you can reduce the effects to an absolute minimum.

    TLDR, the effects of this will be all about a responsible handling of how we flatten and continue to flatten the infection curve. That's why governments around the world have such an unpleasant choice to make right now. They could keep us all locked down until a vaccine is found, if ever, or they can lift lockdowns in a highly controlled manner that keeps the R rating at less than 1. In a perfect world we'd probably pick the former option. It would certainly mean fewer deaths but it's not really feasible. so this is going to be about that controlled lift of lockdown with heavy monitoring so that we can track that R rating.

    The assertion in that CNN article (and I suspect it's correct) is that a rapid lifting of the lockdowns, as Trump seems to be advocating, would lead the R rating to rapidly rise back above 1, with disastrous results.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; May 5th, 2020 at 03:10 AM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Vaccines are a bit of an arms race. China is testing (early stages), the US, EU and India are all getting close. However, nobody can create the number of vaccines that would be needed for the world, and the various countries are dancing around the obvious result: They intend to use the vaccines for themselves first, and share...maybe.
    My humble opinion:

    (1) As far as I know, there has never been a precedent for the successful development of a coronavirus vaccine.

    (2) I don't think China could achieve a leading position in vaccine research and development
    But sometimes China may create miracles. For example, 40 years ago, the Chinese government developed anti-malarial medicines at the request of the Vietnamese government. China concentrated all the medical resources of the whole country to develop this medicine, and finally developed the magic medicine "artemisinin". This is one of the few Chinese contributions to world medicine. Another contribution seems to be insulin.

    (3) The only way to end the virus is through group immunization.

    (4) The number of infected people has been greatly concealed, which has led to the exaggeration of the lethality of the virus.
    Note: The number of infections was not intentionally concealed, but because there was no detection. In fact, there is no need to detect.
    The actual number of infections should be more than 100-300 times the number of people tested, but most people had no symptoms and healed themselves.
    Last edited by dreammanor; May 5th, 2020 at 07:08 AM.

  26. #746
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    As far as I know, there has never been a precedent for the successful development of a coronavirus vaccine.
    Well that not exactly true as anyone who had had a yearly Flu jab can tell you. The Flu jab is a vaccine for Flu, the biggest problem we have is Flu rapidly mutates and so we constantly have to adapt the vaccine year to year.

    Sars-Cov-2 appear to mutate much more slowly to the point where Scientist believe that a single vaccine may be all that is needed.

    Judging from what the leading scientist are saying i am feeling cautiously optimistic that an effective vaccine will be developed

    Many Scientists point of a lack of funding and political will as to the main reasons more development hasn't been carried out on Chronovirus's in the past, and well they sure have both of them in spades now!
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  27. #747
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by NeedSomeAnswers View Post
    Well that not exactly true as anyone who had had a yearly Flu jab can tell you. The Flu jab is a vaccine for Flu, the biggest problem we have is Flu rapidly mutates and so we constantly have to adapt the vaccine year to year.
    The flu is not a coronavirus; the common cold is. However, I remain optimistic like you and hope that this pandemic will help make large jumps in the world's ability to make effective vaccienes.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The flu is not a coronavirus; the common cold is. However, I remain optimistic like you and hope that this pandemic will help make large jumps in the world's ability to make effective vaccienes.
    Ahem i stand corrected your right, as soon as i read your post i knew you were right so i have obviously somehow managed to mix up Flu with the common cold.

    Ok so we dont yet have a vaccine for any of the existing coronavirus's but i am still optimistic. I would bet never has more money and resource been thrown at trying to develop a single vaccine before.
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  29. #749
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I'm basing the start of the quarantine off of when I went into forced work from home status... because of a co-worker's comment this morning, I looked it up. That was Mar 16... Today is Day 51... or Covid the 51st.
    And for just a little more fun:
    Alternative time units
    50 days can be converted to one of these units:

    4,320,000 seconds
    72,000 minutes
    1200 hours
    50 days
    7 weeks and 1 day
    13.66% of 2020


    There's some depressing numbers for you.

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  30. #750
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    There may be a precedent for a corona virus vaccine. A few groups felt they were ready to go with a SARS vaccine, but didn't get to roll it out because SARS simply vanished. That's one of the reason people are optimistic about a vaccine for COVID. It's considered to be a relatively low bar, when it comes to vaccines.

    Of course, we don't always manage to get over low bars.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    i have obviously somehow managed to mix up Flu with the common cold.
    We all do that. It leads to a particularly virulent strain called Man-Flu.

    Covid the 51st
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Of course, we don't always manage to get over low bars.
    Since a use a wheelchair, Low bars are my favorite kind of bars. Right now now I'll take any height bar so I can have a frosty mug of beer and a sandwich without having to fix it myself.

    Covid the 51st
    Wasn't he in Vikings?
    No I believe he was the Pope.

  33. #753
    PowerPoster techgnome's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Wasn't he in Vikings?
    Covid the 51st - Son of Utrid...

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    No I believe he was the Pope.
    Pope John Covid XXXXXI


    -tg
    * I don't respond to private (PM) requests for help. It's not conducive to the general learning of others.*
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    * How to Use Parameters * Create Disconnected ADO Recordset Clones * Set your VB6 ActiveX Compatibility * Get rid of those pesky VB Line Numbers * I swear I saved my data, where'd it run off to??? *

  34. #754
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post

    Wasn't he in Vikings?
    No, not the Vikings. I think he played for the Bears.
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

  35. #755
    PowerPoster techgnome's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    No, not the Vikings. I think he played for the Bears.
    Fullback... for the '9ers...


    -tg
    * I don't respond to private (PM) requests for help. It's not conducive to the general learning of others.*
    * I also don't respond to friend requests. Save a few bits and don't bother. I'll just end up rejecting anyways.*
    * How to get EFFECTIVE help: The Hitchhiker's Guide to Getting Help at VBF - Removing eels from your hovercraft *
    * How to Use Parameters * Create Disconnected ADO Recordset Clones * Set your VB6 ActiveX Compatibility * Get rid of those pesky VB Line Numbers * I swear I saved my data, where'd it run off to??? *

  36. #756
    Superbly Moderated NeedSomeAnswers's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    100% Juice !!!!!
    Please Mark your Thread "Resolved", if the query is solved & Rate those who have helped you



  37. #757
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by NeedSomeAnswers View Post
    100% Juice !!!!!
    Free Range and Organic.

  38. #758
    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Trump administration shelves CDC guide to reopening the country

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...pening-country

    Based on Trump's latest graph on the projection of the virus spreading it just isn't necessary:
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

  39. #759
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    To get a meaningful picture you need to scale by population:



    Graphics can be remarkably useful but they can also be remarkably misleading if you don't read them properly.

  40. #760
    Wall Poster TysonLPrice's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Graphics can be remarkably useful but they can also be remarkably misleading if you don't read them properly.
    Not if you are Trump and you have your trusty Sharpie in your pocket...
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

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