Thread: [RESOLVED] Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

1. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
The problem is that your calculation is based on a percentage of the total population, that's not how the projections are calculated. They're calculated by multiplying the death rate by the projected infection rate. If the death rate is being overestimated as you posit (and I suspect you're right) it means the infection rate is being underestimated by the same amount the death rate is being overestimated.
Sure, but consider this. Let K = known infected cases, U = unknown infected cases (asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic but never tested, etc.), and D = Dead. Let K/(K+U) remain consistent throughout.

So, let's use some round numbers. 100,000 infected in the USA, ~1450 dead. Extrapolated out, once 100,000,000 are infected, that would mean 1,450,000 dead (not considering potential increased death due to lack of health care issues from so many infected simultaneously). But hang on. What if when there were 100,000 infected there were 400,000 asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic that go undiagnosed. That puts K/(K+U) at 0.2.

Ok, what does that mean. That means that K can never reach 100,000,000 in the USA. Why? Because if K = 100,000,000, then K+U = 500,000,000. The upper limit on what K+U can be is the total population of the USA, and the population of the USA is nowhere near 500,000,000. Also, for K+U to equal the total population, that would mean 100% of the USA were infected knowingly or unknowingly, and no projection that I've seen assumes a total infection rate.

So, having a sense for what K/(U+K) is has a huge impact on final projections.

2. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Actually, we are somewhat near 500,000,000, though not there. We're about 80% of that.

Still, this is both optimistic and pessimistic. It's optimistic in assuming there's a large percentage that are asymptomatic. That does seem likely to be true with our level of testing, but it's still coming from an optimistic perspective. It's also pessimistic in assuming that the disease runs its full course. Ideally, the total number of infections and the total number of deaths will be FAR less, regardless of asymptomatic or not. That only happens if we taken action, though, and the worst case is useful as a spur to action, if nothing else.

3. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Last point of clarification from me. When I say that projections are likely overstating things due to the unknown factor of how many infected but undiagnosed people there are, I'm not talking about any near term projections. I'm specifically referring to these:

-Projected peaks
-Total numbers when all is said and done

So, when Governor Cuomo comes out and says "17% of infected are hospitalized, 3% are in ICU (most on ventilator), so we project that we'll need 35,000 ventilators at our peak", I'm saying that I'd be surprised if their peak ventilator usage is ever over 20,000. Because 17% of infected aren't hospitalized, 17% of known infected are. 3% of infected aren't in ICU, 3% of known infected are. And so the expected peak of simultaneous infected and peak of ventilator usage is taking from a pool of people that can't and won't ever even be in the hospital - those that have already unknowingly had it and recovered or currently unknowingly have it and don't know it and don't need to be hospitalized.

Again, it all depends on how frequently people get it and don't know it. And right now no one knows what that number is. But it is a number greater than 0, and the bigger the better.

4. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

OK, I see your argument. But it relies on the official estimates being under by a factor of five, which seems extremely optimistic to me. Particularly given that Italy is currently experiencing almost a thousand deaths a day out of a population of just over 60 million, just over a tenth the size of the US. Their total death toll is almost at 10, 000 already and is still increasing exponentially.

Indeed, their death rate is also sky rocketing because they've passed the point where their health service has the capacity to cope. This gets really catastrophic because 1. People no longer get the treatment they need, even those with a serious infection and 2. the medical infrastructure breaks down because the people who support are dying (46 doctors in Italy so far).

So, while I hope your analysis is correct, I fear it's not. I suspect you've grossly over-estimated the inaccuracies of the official predictions and failed to account for the increase in death rate experienced when the infected surpass the ability of the infrastructure to cope.

5. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

The numbers I provided were ONLY for illustrative purposes. What if K/(K+U) is 0.2 - or put another way, what if for every known infected person, there are 4 people who won't be diagnosed because they either have no symptoms or mild enough symptoms that they either don't seek medical treatment, or do seek medical treatment and aren't tested.

I don't have any idea what the ratio of K/(K+U) is, and right now neither does anyone else. The only thing that is certain is that K/(K+U) is < 1, since U is clearly > 0.

And Dr. Fauci is on the record in the last day or so that in the end, the true fatality rate in the USA will likely be less than 1%, or even as low as 0.5%. For the exact reasons that I'm stating - people have it that aren't being accounted for in the current "running total" numbers.

"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2.4% In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

Edit: And with that, I'm officially done with this thread. Stay safe and healthy everyone.

6. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

population of just over 60 million, just over a tenth the size of the US.
I'd say @ 330,000,000 so it's a little less than a fifth. Still the number of deaths could be alarming.

7. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Sorry, I was taking the 500,000 figure quoted earlier. It doesn't change my position though.

8. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Maybe we could think of it in another way: COVID-19 has been popular all over the world earlier. More than 20 million people have been infected in the US in 2019, but most have recovered on their own. Maybe when calculating the severity and mortality of COVID-19, the population base should be set to 30-50 million. In this way, the severity and mortality of COVID-19 is close to severe influenza. But COVID-19, as a newly born virus, is more contagious than influenza.

Edit:
IMO, the situation in China, Italy, and Spain are particularly serious is because that panic has caused a large number of people to flock to the hospital, which not only caused the run-up of medical resources, but also caused a large number of doctors and nurses to be infected. As a result, these doctors and nurses began to infect a large number of people who came to the hospital for testing.

When the rumors began to spread, hundreds of thousands of people in Wuhan flocked to the hospital at the same time, causing more than 3,000 doctors and nurses to be infected, as a result, they may have infected 30,000 to 60,000 people. In Italy, more than 6,000 doctors and nurses were infected, as a result, they may have infected 60,000 to 120,000 people.

9. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Coronavirus Origin Theories

Source:https://creazilla.com/nodes/19974-co...-poster-vector

10. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Originally Posted by dreammanor
Maybe we could think of it in another way: COVID-19 has been popular all over the world earlier. More than 20 million people have been infected in the US in 2019, but most have recovered on their own.
Ehh looks to me like you're trying to say this did not originate from China, but instead from the US. Is that correct?

11. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Originally Posted by Yikio99
I don't know whether scientists have accurately known the origin theory of the following viruses:
Flu in 1918
SARS in 2003
H1N1 in 2009
Ebola in 2014
MERS in 2015

If scientists already know the truth, why haven't any vaccines developed against these viruses to date?

12. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Originally Posted by kfcSmitty
Ehh looks to me like you're trying to say this did not originate from China, but instead from the US. Is that correct?
No, even if the massive influenza outbreak in the United States in 2019 is really COVID-19, we cannot say that it originated in the United States, just like the Spanish-flu-1918 did not originate in Spain. Birds and bats can bring the virus from thousands of kilometers away. Beijing's Swifts fly to South Africa every year for winter, with a one-way distance of 16,000 kilometers (a total of 38,000 kilometers per year). The fire in Australia also caused many birds to fly thousands of kilometers to avoid disasters elsewhere.

There are 3 meanings I want to express in post#368:
(1) The spreading of COVID-19 may be earlier than originally estimated
(2) Viruses are the common enemy of mankind. It is extremely stupid to laugh at and discriminate against other countries.
(3) Understanding the true time of the outbreak and the true source of the virus can be more helpful in solving the problem. If some people or governments always want to cover up the facts with illusions/falsehoods and rumors, it can only make the problem worse.

13. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

I totally agree with #2 and mostly with #3, but I suspect that #1 isn't quite right. There are LOADS of viruses out there. We likely encounter thousands, or millions, each day, and our bodies shrug them off. The COVID-19 virus has probably been around for a very long time. At some point, one variety of it acquired some little mutation that allowed it to get into humans, and here we are. However, it is likely that it happened not all that long before it was first noted in Wuhan. The reason I say this is that it is particularly contagious. Thus, it may have been around, and even in humans, for a long time, but whatever changed to make it so virulent probably isn't all that far back.

My understanding is that there are plenty of corona-family viruses in bat populations, and perhaps more contact with bats in China than in the US (we used to have a fair amount, through spelunking, but with white nose syndrome wiping out bats across the US, contact is probably in decline).

14. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
but I suspect that #1 isn't quite right. There are LOADS of viruses out there.
(1) 2019 World Military Games held in Wuhan
(2) Wuhan is a city with a population of more than 15 million
(3) Wuhan is the most important and busiest transportation hub in China. It is the central transportation hub connecting 9 provinces.
(4) Peak of returning home during Chinese New Year

15. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Originally Posted by dreammanor
I don't know whether scientists have accurately known the origin theory of the following viruses:
Flu in 1918
SARS in 2003
H1N1 in 2009
Ebola in 2014
MERS in 2015

If scientists already know the truth, why haven't any vaccines developed against these viruses to date?
Have you even tried knowing if there are already vaccines for the said viruses you mentioned?

16. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Originally Posted by dee-u
Have you even tried knowing if there are already vaccines for the said viruses you mentioned?
SARS vaccine: None
H1N1 vaccine: Based on influenza vaccine.
MERS vaccine: Clinical trials have begun in September 2019. Developing a vaccine is not difficult, but very few vaccines are truly effective and approved by the FDA.
Ebola vaccine: It was only approved by the FDA on December 21, 2019, and the effect remains to be seen.

Edit:
Most of the vaccines claiming to be effective against the above viruses are ineffective. (The virus is constantly mutating)

17. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

If scientists already know the truth, why haven't any vaccines developed against these viruses to date?
Vaccine development is generally very expensive, especially if you have to make several attempts which can happen. Its also a lengthy undertaking, in normal circumstances vaccine development takes years, and if a virus has been contained and found not be particularly virulent then there are other more cost effective ways of dealing with them.

There has to be political will to develop a vaccine as there is not much money in them so big Pharma companies wont develop them on there own they need government funding.

18. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

(2) Viruses are the common enemy of mankind. It is extremely stupid to laugh at and discriminate against other countries.
I endorse this message.

19. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Vaccine development is generally very expensive, especially if you have to make several attempts which can happen. Its also a lengthy undertaking, in normal circumstances vaccine development takes years, and if a virus has been contained and found not be particularly virulent then there are other more cost effective ways of dealing with them.

There has to be political will to develop a vaccine as there is not much money in them so big Pharma companies wont develop them on there own they need government funding.
Along with that creating vaccines can be a moving target as viruses tend to mutate. One years flu vaccines may be ineffective the next year.

20. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Vaccine development is generally very expensive, especially if you have to make several attempts which can happen. Its also a lengthy undertaking, in normal circumstances vaccine development takes years, and if a virus has been contained and found not be particularly virulent then there are other more cost effective ways of dealing with them.

There has to be political will to develop a vaccine as there is not much money in them so big Pharma companies wont develop them on there own they need government funding.
In fact, what I want to express is that scientists have not been able to accurately judge the origin of SARS, H1N1, MERS, and Ebola, so they cannot formulate targeted epidemic prevention measures.

In addition, Robert Garry, a professor at the Tulane University School of Medicine in the United States, said that through genetic analysis, the virus did not originate in Wuhan. The virus may have been circulating in humans for many years. The virus may originate from bats, but another part of the virus seems to come from another animal, so this may be a recombinant virus.

https://weibo.com/tv/v/IARdKgJGP?fid...87842831990794
English interviews are available in the second half of the video.

21. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Sure, it's likely to have circulated in some fashion for some time. To some extent, you have to ask when it really formed. A virus isn't a living thing, it's just DNA or RNA in a shell. It requires some cell to replicate. So, when did it form? Perhaps in Wuhan, perhaps millions of years ago, perhaps longer. It all depends on how you define it. Parts of the DNA/RNA come and go, mutate, and so forth. At some point, something happened and it changed from "no big deal to humans" into "a big deal to humans" (only changed two letters, which may be no more than the changes in the DNA/RNA of the virus). Is that a new virus? Well, no, it's the same old virus with a small, but significant, twist. We could say it is new, or we could say it is not. That's mostly just perspective. That twist probably happened just before the virus exploded onto the scene, but whether or not you could say that was a new virus or an old virus with a new twist...that's probably pretty hard to say.

22. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

I'm no biologist, but I thought that when a person had anti-bodies in their blood for a particular virus then making a cure/vaccination from that blood was fairly easy? Obviously I've been mistaken as many people now have the anti-bodies but no cure/vaccination.

24. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Yeah, that pretty well covers it.

25. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Vaccines now being used to harvest biometric identities of everyone; Big Brother merges with Big Pharma
https://www.naturalnews.com/2019-10-...veillance.html

Sweden sees microchip implant revolution
ID, Wallet, Keys All In Your Hand: Sweden Moves Into The Future With Microchipping

As the rest of Europe lives under lockdown, Sweden keeps calm and carries on
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...and-carries-on

(Coronavirus (Covid-19) No lock down here (Sweden) - BBC News - 30th March 2020)

26. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

What if the cure for the coronavirus were as simple as taking zinc?

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-03-...king-zinc.html

27. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

What if the cure for the coronavirus were as simple as taking zinc?
What if the cure for people believing everything they read was to simply to throw there eyeballs into a black hole?

28. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Before anyone starts looking to Sweden as an example of how to deal with the Virus, they are doing exactly what a number of other EU countries did before them and before the virus really got a hold and started killing lots of people.

They have no silver bullet, they for some unknown reason think that they will avoid what is happening all around them just by being Swedish.

There daily case are significantly increasing and there total cases have nearly trebled in the last 12 days from around 1300 to over 4000.

29. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

I'd give Natural News even less credence than I'd give Barry. Barry's a guy who goes to my local Wetherspoons pub. He generally arrives at about 10AM and stays all day. He wears sovereign rings, drinks Stella and believes that 9/11 was a red flag conspiracy. I don't give Barry much credence. I give Natural News even less.

It's worth understanding why Sweden hasn't had to have a mass lock down. It's because they took testing seriously right up front. They've been mass testing anyone who comes into the country and randomly testing the population at scale. They know where their cases are and are able to isolate them. As a result they're still in the containment phase while the US and UK have moved into the delay phase.

I have to say, that having previously we in the UK were getting our response roughly right, I'm starting to shift. I feel we called the lockdown about right but the fact that our levels of testing are still woefully low (we're still not testing people returning from abroad or NHS staff who are off with "symptoms") and NHS staff are still reporting that they haven't got the personal protection equipment they need. That's ridiculous.

30. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

I'm no biologist, but I thought that when a person had anti-bodies in their blood for a particular virus then making a cure/vaccination from that blood was fairly easy? Obviously I've been mistaken as many people now have the anti-bodies but no cure/vaccination.
Ah so firstly Vaccines are not created from anti-bodies at all but from the virus itself. generally in some weakened form although there new techniques which dont use the virus at all.

What your talking about is convalescent plasma and has been used with some success over many years. I am obviously far from an expert but i would guess that its very difficult to mass produce this type of cure.

31. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

It's worth understanding why Sweden hasn't had to have a mass lock down. It's because they took testing seriously right up front. They've been mass testing anyone who comes into the country and randomly testing the population at scale. They know where their cases are and are able to isolate them. As a result they're still in the containment phase while the US and UK have moved into the delay phase.
While that is true Sweden's cases are massively increasing and there is a lot of worry over there that they are not reacting to it.

32. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

While that is true Sweden's cases are massively increasing and there is a lot of worry over there that they are not reacting to it.
Yeah, they're behind us on the curve. I didn't mean to imply that they weren't on it at all.

The country I'm feeling really sorry for is Russia. They've buried their heads firmly in the sand.

33. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
I have to say, that having previously we in the UK were getting our response roughly right, I'm starting to shift. I feel we called the lockdown about right but the fact that our levels of testing are still woefully low (we're still not testing people returning from abroad or NHS staff who are off with "symptoms") and NHS staff are still reporting that they haven't got the personal protection equipment they need. That's ridiculous.
Our testing is rather limited (especially compared to Germany etc), but apparently we are being limited by global supply of the necessary ingredients... which is amplified by our limited funding of the NHS in recent years, which meant we didn't have as much existing stock as we ideally would at this time.

My gut reaction was to be concerned about the level of testing (especially of health staff), but as we haven't reached the peak of cases yet and staff levels are apparently OK at the moment, it might not be a bad idea to "let" the health staff be ill at this time, so that they have some degree of immunity when we get the peak.

Now testing of health staff is starting to ramp up, which should give more protection and available staff when it matters most.

34. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

it might not be a bad idea to "let" the health staff be ill at this time, so that they have some degree of immunity when we get the peak.
Oof, that's a risky strategy. I've heard some experts say that we actually want some healthy people to get it and survive to start building up herd immunity but I think I'd rather go with just keeping our NHS staff as well as possible throughout. To me the testing (so we can get them back at work ASAP) and protective equipment are the keys to keeping the NHS ahead of the curve. The PPE, in particular, it really feels like should be on hand by now.

35. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

What your talking about is convalescent plasma and has been used with some success over many years. I am obviously far from an expert but i would guess that its very difficult to mass produce this type of cure.
Some of that is done using pigs, but the pig has to be sufficiently susceptible that it will build up antibodies. I haven't heard that typical pigs are susceptible to this one, so sneezing on them doesn't help and it just annoys the pig.

36. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

No one mentioned the US is on lock down til May 1?

I knew they were gonna extend it as to spoon feed the population and not create more panic that we will be shutdown for months still to come. Its always easier to look at a quarantine for a short period with possible extensions vs right off the bat long period.

8 strains of the virus now supposedly being reported.

37. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Originally Posted by RobDog888

8 strains of the virus now supposedly being reported.
AHA!! We are barely a month into it, and already the strain is starting to show. Eight of them, no less.

38. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

I think your right, small period are easier to digest. I have room reservations for Santa Cruz for May 31 - Jun 3. I haven't canceled them, still hoping things will be opened back up in two months.

Testing, Testing, Testing. Almost everyone agrees on the importance of it. Why did the UK and US (and others) drag their feet so much? Was it just economics, hoping not to have to spend the money? Was it ignorance, thinking what happened in Wuhan couldn't happen in our country? Or was it political, putting our lives at risk for possible political gain. It seems like everyone knew but the government was in denial. Just doesn't really make sense to me.

39. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

In terms of testing in the UK/US/etc, from what I've heard it certainly sounds like our long-term strategy (as in last year and earlier) means that we don't have enough of the relevant ingredients to make as many tests as we'd like... and of course now the global demand is too high to get what we want.

We're in a dubious position that we can't change quickly, but according to experts we seem to be dealing with it reasonably well.

Originally Posted by FunkyDexter
I think I'd rather go with just keeping our NHS staff as well as possible throughout.
Given unlimited resources I would definitely agree, but the limits we find ourselves with means that the current approach is probably the best we can do this time (next year onwards will probably be better, as we build up NHS funding).

The PPE, in particular, it really feels like should be on hand by now.
Apparently the quantity of stock is no longer an issue - it is just not reaching the right places yet, but the top medical people say it is being rapidly sorted out.

On top of that, apparently new suppliers of ventilators etc (including the Formula 1 teams) will be delivering them starting next week, and the quantities sound impressive.

40. Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

Originally Posted by TysonLPrice
Trump is going to open everything back up in just over two weeks...we are all going to church Easter morning to celebrate. No worries..
That has changed now. Just when I was planning an Easter egg hunt for all the kids to assemble behind the church to celebrate the rise of our lord!

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