Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

[Shaggy Hiker]

The math is deaths / cases, so I would kindly ask you to point out what the mathematical flaw is in my post.

Actually, I changed my post around a bit to include logical, because whether the flaw is mathematical is debatable. There isn't a flaw in the math that is shown, to be sure, but there are some underlying assumptions which are faulty. For that math to say what you think it is saying, you have to assume that the chance of catching the delta variant if already vaccinated is essentially random. If that isn't true, then the results shown are meaningless. That has been true all along with this virus. If you were to say that the death rate was 1%, that clearly wouldn't be true for a layer cake of reasons.

1) It wasn't 1% of the population, because not all of the population ever caught COVID.
2) It wasn't 1% of those who caught COVID, because a portion of those who caught it never knew they caught it.
3) It wasn't 1% of those diagnosed with COVID, because there were other factors involved.

It was always skewed based on other factors such that the 1% would have meant "an average of 1% of people in a sample of those people who were diagnosed with COVID and which otherwise were drawn from a pool with known dimensions that weren't well described."

Yet, despite all the problems with that 1% figure, which you likely don't agree with anyways, you made the same mistakes when trying to prove a point about...well, something.

And with that, I'm going to disappear into the woods for a few days, as is my wont.

[dilettante]

Dr. Brannon Traxler, Interim Public Health Director with South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control, confirms there is no difference between the two doses.

"They are exactly the same, in terms of the chemical makeup, but what they do and their function is a little bit different," Traxler said.

The difference is in the response your body has to each one.

Third dose:

The administration is calling it a booster, but right now it will be a third dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. It is the same formula. Pfizer is investigating a potential booster, which would be a different formula that might address expected variants, but for now that is not what people will receive beginning Sept. 20 once the FDA and CDC approve it.

[wes4dbt]

The math is deaths / cases, so I would kindly ask you to point out what the mathematical flaw is in my post.

Can't speak for SH but my guess is the age and health demographic of the unvaccinated and vaccinated is different. Old/unhealthy get vaccinated, young/healthy are less likely.

If you look at the study you posted, on page 17 is shows the vast majority of deaths from Delta are mainly from people 50 or older.

I didn't study the whole report but that caught my eye.

What's my point? What's my point...
My point has been reached actually, I'm going for souvlakia!

It was serious question but if you don't want to explain, Ok.

EDIT:

I see SH spoke for himself while I was writing this post.

[sapator]

The difference is in the response your body has to each one.

Third dose:

So not yet tested..... Vaaaaaaaaxxxxxxxxxxxbbbieeeeeeeesssssssssss!!!

I'm curious what vax wes did. What did you do man?.. Edit... No sorry stop, I meant Tyson.

P.S. Happy trails to Shaggy.

[sapator]

It was serious question

Let's agree to disagree.

[wes4dbt]

I'm curious what vax wes did. What did you do man?

Why do you want to know, give me a relevant reason and I'll gladly to you. My guess is your just being a wise arse.

[sapator]

Yes I corrected that I did not meant you. Apologies .

[wes4dbt]

Yes I corrected that I did not meant you. Apologies .

No problem

[OptionBase1]

Actually, I changed my post around a bit to include logical, because whether the flaw is mathematical is debatable. There isn't a flaw in the math that is shown, to be sure, but there are some underlying assumptions which are faulty. For that math to say what you think it is saying, you have to assume that the chance of catching the delta variant if already vaccinated is essentially random. If that isn't true, then the results shown are meaningless. That has been true all along with this virus. If you were to say that the death rate was 1%, that clearly wouldn't be true for a layer cake of reasons.

1) It wasn't 1% of the population, because not all of the population ever caught COVID.
2) It wasn't 1% of those who caught COVID, because a portion of those who caught it never knew they caught it.
3) It wasn't 1% of those diagnosed with COVID, because there were other factors involved.

It was always skewed based on other factors such that the 1% would have meant "an average of 1% of people in a sample of those people who were diagnosed with COVID and which otherwise were drawn from a pool with known dimensions that weren't well described."

Yet, despite all the problems with that 1% figure, which you likely don't agree with anyways, you made the same mistakes when trying to prove a point about...well, something.

And with that, I'm going to disappear into the woods for a few days, as is my wont.

From now on I'm calling you out if you reply to any programming threads asking for clarity or more information from the OP, because you can clearly discern things not written.

[wes4dbt]

Let's agree to disagree.

Disagree on what. That's why I asked what were you trying to say. I got no problem disagreeing with you but I'd it enjoy it more if I knew what the disagreement was about. lol

[OptionBase1]

This may have been linked to earlier in this thread, I don't feel like trudging through the slog to check.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/w...s-booster.html

Sometimes reality sucks, and hopes don't pan out. This thing won't be over for a long time, I'm afraid.

[wes4dbt]

This may have been linked to earlier in this thread, I don't feel like trudging through the slog to check.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/w...s-booster.html

Sometimes reality sucks, and hopes don't pan out. This thing won't be over for a long time, I'm afraid.

The link require a Login/subscription. But if the headline is what the article is about, I read something similar a few days ago. I agree this COVID 19 thing wont be over for a long time. Maybe never, hopefully we can get it to a point that it's no long overloads our health care system. I think we'll achieve that within a year. But you never know what variant is waiting around the corner.

[sapator]

Israel stopped mandatory vax on students and health care personnel!

Now the "I told you so, show" with your host Sapator.

Another "crazy" top professor, they are hunting him down as we speak. Ex vice president of EU consulting group of WHO. President in France of CMIT founder of FFI, CSHP and president of the national organization of drugs security ANSM, member of Louis Pasteur institute.
Wrote the vaccination policy for France for many years as well as presiding over the National Consultation Group on Vaccination, also known as the Technical Committee on Vaccination (CTV).

Among others, Delta is of low mortality
We don't want to end up like modified tomatoes due to the vaccines
Many side effects never reported
Covid vaccine policy is stupid and unethical
Vaccinated persons are dangerous for the non vaccinated.
All these products, so-called “vaccines”, are useless, because we can perfectly well control an epidemic.

There is a transcript so you can just read the article but there is a video also if you like.

https://www.ukcolumn.org/video/franc...-and-unethical

[wes4dbt]

Here,

https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...-delta-variant

https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories...vid-19-vaccine

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2021...shot-concerns/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...about-enough1/

https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/v...ar-mask-anyway

So now should I go "I told you so"? Is that how it works? All I got to do is find someone on the internet who shares a similar view and that obviously proves I'm right. Damn that was easy. Drop the mic. lol

[dilettante]

There might even turn out to be more than one true story.

For example there might be regional genetic, health, and dietary differences in different parts of the world that make severe infection or death more or less likely.

Right now there appears to be some controversy over the "additional dose booster" thing. Some studies suggest that getting vaccinated then getting a case of the fungalitis on top of that would be better. Also that getting sick fist and then getting vaccinated after recovery might be as good or even better, though the risk of getting really sick or dying is greater that way.

All we know for sure is that results are not all in and those that are must still be examined and vetted before a conclusion can be drawn and a direction chosen.

Right now "3rd doses" are supposed to start September 20th in the U.S. by politician decree. Hopefully before then we get more conclusive answers.

Who knows? In the end we may see officials recommending vaccination, wait 3 to 6 weeks, 2nd vaccination, wait 5 weeks or more, then strip off the mask and mingle with the unwashed so you can catch a mild case.

Covered in the 1st 2/3 of this:

[xiaoyao]

Because the plague is not taken seriously, more than half of the world’s people are infected. This time the global loss exceeded one trillion U.S. dollars.
If you take the initiative to take precautions, it is equivalent to an extra $5,000 in bonuses per person.

[sapator]

So now should I go "I told you so"?

Yep. Most specific, I told you so that Pfizeris anywhere from 42 to 96 percent effective against the Delta variant with two doses and mortality to be determined per your articles.

"find someone on the internet who shares a similar view" , lol that was funny.
Anywho the article was not meant for you, even if I quoted God himself you wouldn't have changed your mind, that is obvious and I don't want you to change your mind, Bourla would be very sad.

I got a little jealous of Shaggy and with the upcoming lockdown and just to be on the safe side, I will be of for a few days for vacation over vacation but I'm not sure there would be internet there so I'll see you when I see you.

[Shaggy Hiker]

From now on I'm calling you out if you reply to any programming threads asking for clarity or more information from the OP, because you can clearly discern things not written.

I don't see how that's relevant. For one thing, to answer questions on here you often have to discern things not written. We seldom get enough information. However, In this case, I don't see how that's a point. Key pieces of information were left out of the math shown such that the results don't mean much of anything. Presumably, you are saying that the math you posted suggests that the vaccinations aren't effective, but the data presented doesn't show that. You don't need more data to show that. You need more data to show that vaccines aren't effective, because the data shown doesn't show that.

[Shaggy Hiker]

I got a little jealous of Shaggy and with the upcoming lockdown and just to be on the safe side, I will be of for a few days for vacation over vacation but I'm not sure there would be internet there so I'll see you when I see you.

And well you should be, though I was not actually hiking anywhere this time. I was just sitting by a lake with a bunch of friends. Not only was it cool and comfortable, but it even rained the first night (I love rain on the tent, but rain in the summer is often a surprise). I have no idea WHY it was cool and comfortable. I wasn't all that high up, and it would have been almost as cool and comfortable in the valley. In fact, there is evidence that it even rained in the valley.

Fires haven't ended, but it felt like they should have after this last weekend.

[TysonLPrice]

If I'm not mistaken, the first dose gives you the virus, the second one build the immune and the third one, not tested yet but probably kick start the vaxbie transformation. Braaaiiiinnnnsssss! But who knows, it's not tested, our test subjects here will let us know. Braaaiiiinnnssssss!!!!!!

I think the J&J vaccine uses the traditional "weakened" virus approach. Moderna and Pfizer use mRNA that directs cells to produce copies of a protein on the outside of the coronavirus known as the “spike protein”

[Shaggy Hiker]

If I'm not mistaken, the first dose gives you the virus, the second one build the immune and the third one, not tested yet but probably kick start the vaxbie transformation. Braaaiiiinnnnsssss! But who knows, it's not tested, our test subjects here will let us know. Braaaiiiinnnssssss!!!!!!

Ah, didn't see that one. Yes, you are VERY mistaken. If you really think that, you should probably go look into the science of how the mRNA vaccines works, because that is so very wrong that it will lead you to all kinds of interesting misunderstandings.

[xiaoyao]

The coronavirus outbreak has promoted the development of global medicine, like it! @

[Shaggy Hiker]

That's true. We have made a series of significant advances as a result of this. More are to come, too.

[xiaoyao]

In World War II, missiles, atomic bombs, many fighter jets were invented, not to mention a large number of easy-to-use and easy-to-repair guns. Now these guns continue to kill people in Afu after 80 years.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Don't worry. If they break, we'll make more.

[dilettante]

And apparently as we "lose" them into the criminal community we'll run right out and buy another one. Scary.

[TysonLPrice]

In World War II, missiles, atomic bombs, many fighter jets were invented, not to mention a large number of easy-to-use and easy-to-repair guns. Now these guns continue to kill people in Afu after 80 years.

Around 11 centuries ago China invented gunpowder. That also continues to kill people.

[techgnome]

Around 11 centuries ago China invented gunpowder. That also continues to kill people.

On that note... why aren't there bans on gun powder? I mean, guns themselves are useless with out the ammunition... so guns don't kill people... ammunition does... but what makes the ammunition deadly? The explosive gun powder found inside of them... so let's just cut out all the middle man crap, and ban gun powder... problem solved. World Peas...

-tg

[jdc2000]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxQqJbW-ohw

[FunkyDexter]

A concern I have is that I'm not sure vaccination can provide us with a path out of this virus. I've no data or proof so please don't take this as an assertion but it is a concern.

My thought process is that, although we have used vaccines to overcome diseases in the past, I don't think we've ever used vaccines to overcome anything as readily transmissible as Covid. Certainly the likes of small pox, polio etc don't meet that bar. Overcome a disease through vaccination basically involves vaccinating the world (to a level of effective herd immunity) before it can mutate into an escape variant. We're in a straight up race and the guy in the other lane is Ussain Bolt. We've done pretty well in the West (disregarding a few pockets in the US) but the rest of the world isn't even close to being on course.

[dilettante]

I've been hearing a lot of people say the goal has been moved to merely changing the pandemic nature of the disease to endemic. As in "with us for a long time, but with enough resistance in the general population to render it less deadly" like colds and such.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Sounds about right, to me. We'll never have so many vaccines, and so much acceptance, that the entire population can be meaningfully vaccinated in a sufficiently short amount of time.

On the other hand, I read an article about a solution that might work better. It's not to market, yet, and you'd have to go find a back issue of Scientific American to see it....and I don't remember enough buzzwords to search for it, but perhaps an off switch might be possible.

[sapator]

Back in black.

Yes that's what I was saying , maybe a little harsh, all the time.
You will not escape the mutation and this will turn to endemic.

The vaccine may block with it's one puny spike out of four, something, but what it actually does is blocking some mutations but what mutation is not block and the strongest one against the vaccine will emerge and that is what is going on with Delta and that's why it probably cannot be blocked at all by the vaccine, rendering it almost useless.On the other side the mutations tend to be more contagious and less lethal in order to "survive" so the more the better.

Note that is my understanding on what I've read so far so , yes I might be wrong here but Israel tends to prove me right.

[Shaggy Hiker]

Couple flaws with that argument, but first, while you were away I nominated that your name be added to the list of hurricanes. You deserve it. My name came up a couple years back (no, not hurricane Shaggy, which would be awesome, my real name), but the storm wandered off into the North Atlantic and didn't do anything harmful.

Anyways, the data is showing that the vaccines do something against Delta, if not all that we could ask for. However, while it would be a positive mutation for the virus to be more contagious, it doesn't much care whether it is less lethal. There should be no selective pressure on that at all, currently. There are two reasons for that.

After all, evolution doesn't care about any outcome aside from: Do your reproduce.

Since COVID becomes wildly contagious before any symptoms show up, it doesn't make any difference at all whether it is deadly or not. It could be 100% fatal and would STILL spread quite well, simply because it has plenty of time to spread before it kills. Take rabies, for example. It's 100% fatal, and always has been. It has plenty of time to spread before it kills, so there is no evolutionary pressure for it to become less fatal. Now, that one IS somewhat different because humans don't pass it on, we just die from it, so what matters is how fast it kills the hosts, but the answer is still: Not fast enough to matter, so it's still 100% fatal. SARS couldn't spread until symptoms showed up, so it could be readily snuffed out, and Ebola is in between, so it can be managed...but is terribly fatal. COVID can spread wonderfully before mortality even comes into play, so there is no evolutionary pressure for it to become less deadly.

The other reason is that it isn't all THAT deadly. If 20% of people who caught it fell down dead, everybody would be freaking out, but it's an uneven 1%, or so, heavily weighted towards the elderly. That also means that there is no evolutionary pressure for it to become less deadly.

The argument that it will become less deadly has to do with two things: The first is that the common cold looks like an attenuated version of a deadly virus that swept Russia. Unfortunately, that happened a long time back, so it is not certain that it really IS the cause of that pandemic. Furthermore, the more close relative is SARS, and that one didn't attenuate, it just died out. The second is that we might become resistant to it such that the bulk of the population has antibodies to the virus. That may well happen. Of course, that's all the vaccines are doing, so if our only escape is to give every survivor antibodies, the vaccines are speeding up that time.

[sapator]

First, thanks for the recommendation. Sapator took my house, sapator broke my roof etc

OK Fair enough but we shouldn't compare different diseases to flu diseases.
I included a video a while back explaining (not me, a highly acclaimed epidemiologist) how covid behaved and why experience with those kind of viruses since 1800s are a reduced mortality.
I also included a video of a German Doctor - Academic explaining that the immune system is identifying covid BEFORE the vaccine on research thus it's a part of a virus that already "attacked" us before.
Also as I've said the strong mutation can escape the vaccine, so we practically can't control the spread with a vaccine. If the vaccine immuned covid so it could not spread then OK but that is not the case, Israel, the most vaccinated country has a mid of 8000 cases per day this week. Without knowing anything about covid, what does this show? It shows that you CANNOT control the spread with vaccines. That is a logical assumption with no medical knowledge included, isn't it? If not, why Delta is spreading?
But this has been said on global rate by both vax and non vax media so that has been resolved. The things that haven't been resolved is if the vaccine is helpful or useless if it does kill many or few people how many serious side effects it has and what Tyson did as a third dose.

[Shaggy Hiker]

There's a chance that there's a better vaccine possible. Right now, they are targeting the spike protein, cause it's there. The spike protein is kind of a sheath around a protein that is the one that does the actual attachment. Going after that may produce a better result. There has been some interesting work along those lines.

Still, predicting the future is difficult. In general, most infectious diseases do tend to become less significant over time, and COVID may do so as well. There's just reason to believe that it also may not. What would be really bad would be if it obtained a mutation that left the infectiousness at the same level as Delta, but greatly increased the lethality. After all, getting past defenses are not the only possible mutation.

[sapator]

I agree but there hasn't been a report of a flu - flu genesis that works the opposite way around and covid isn't something that will break the rules.
If that should happen, why it shouldn't be also happening on flu 's that are decades around? I'm just saying.
I also agree that there will be better vaccines in time, right now we are using that thrombosis pericarditis piece of crap and medical companies are laughing in bathtubs full of dollars.
Here is a research on sciencemag showing that natural immunity is eons better than vaccinating. Now, I don't say get the flue but what I could say is that people that do not have medical issues and of lower age should definitely NOT vaccinate.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...ection-parties

[FunkyDexter]

the storm wandered off... and didn't do anything harmful

So definitely appropriately named then

[PlausiblyDamp]

I agree but there hasn't been a report of a flu - flu genesis that works the opposite way around and covid isn't something that will break the rules.
If that should happen, why it shouldn't be also happening on flu 's that are decades around? I'm just saying.
I also agree that there will be better vaccines in time, right now we are using that thrombosis pericarditis piece of crap and medical companies are laughing in bathtubs full of dollars.
Here is a research on sciencemag showing that natural immunity is eons better than vaccinating. Now, I don't say get the flue but what I could say is that people that do not have medical issues and of lower age should definitely NOT vaccinate.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...ection-parties

Perhaps we shouldn't take covid advice from someone who refuses to even call it by the correct name...

[sapator]

Perhaps.
Flue flue floubiti flue flue