But of course that's garbage too, since it wasn't delivered by a corporate news actor reading prepared lines off a monitor.
Not sure what you're trying to show there. I watched John's video as well.. his point was that the second wave is hitting, and you seem to have politicalized it to be like "See, the media is lying to you!"... What exactly is your point?
I also note in that graph that the US has done much worse than everywhere on it up until around mid-august it seems. Fingers crossed their slope stays at the relatively low point it is as now, but the angle does seem to be trending up at almost the same angle as the UK.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
My point was that the media is currently selling the line that "There is no hope, no immunity" when that is very unlikely to be true.
They easily dupe the uninformed public by pointing at things like antibody levels tapering off over time, ignoring the long-term mechanisms that begin producing more antibodies on demand in the future.
I'm de-politicizing the topic if anything.
You are of course correct that the chart shows how the U.S. hit its second wave earlier than those other countries. But it also shows that things are going bad there far faster than in the U.S. right now, and that runs counter to the media narrative.
The situation isn't great for any of us but there are hopeful signs. Evidence does not support a theory that there is no immunity to be had and the U.S. doesn't have as far to come for things to improve as many other places. Not that we're doing great, just better right now than we might be.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker
You might as well start posting flat earth stuff.
WHAT!! the earth is not flat? I would have been lied to!!
(sorry cannot help to...)
Last edited by Delaney; Oct 29th, 2020 at 12:21 PM.
Reason: very big typo
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
I think you're following the wrong media. I haven't heard any suggestion that there is no hope and no immunity. As far as I can tell, the general consensus is that a vaccine will be out sometime in the first or second quarter of next year, with the first quarter being most likely, but widespread coverage not showing up until the second quarter.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by dilettante
My point was that the media is currently selling the line that "There is no hope, no immunity" when that is very unlikely to be true.
They easily dupe the uninformed public by pointing at things like antibody levels tapering off over time, ignoring the long-term mechanisms that begin producing more antibodies on demand in the future.
Maybe it is because I've cord-cut and I don't just get the nightly news or whatever, but I'm not sure I've seen anything that says there is no hope. However, I know my wife is much more fearful of this than I am, so maybe it is the stuff she reads?
However, her fear keeps coming from "we don't know enough and I'm not willing to risk our kids" regardless of the chances of being infected. My city has very low rates.. we only have 6 cases and, for example, my martial arts gym is fully open without masks and they do BJJ and submission wrestling, so there is obviously no social distancing.
China does not include asymptomatic infections in its final tally.
Late on Monday night, Wuhan’s health commission published a Q&A explaining how asymptomatic cases are dealt with. On why such cases are not included as confirmed cases, the commission said that patients were quarantined for 14 days and if they began to show symptoms they would be designated as confirmed and that data would be published.
“A small number of asymptomatic infections may progress to becoming confirmed cases, but the vast majority [of patients] will heal by themselves,” it said.
Critics also question why recovered patients who retest as positive are not counted. Data from quarantine centres in Wuhan showed that the possibility of recovered patients testing positive again was between 5% and 10%, according to the state-run Global Times. Officials in Hubei have said those patients would not be recorded as new confirmed cases because they had been counted previously.
So as we've known for over 7 months, China fudges its figures. It is basically relying on masks to moderate its run toward natural herd immunity. Has it worked? We can't tell, their figures are pure BS.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by TysonLPrice
I think you are behind on current events...
The #'s dil posted are cases per million per country on 7 day average. It appears yours is just overall cases period, so that would be where the difference lies.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by kfcSmitty
However, her fear keeps coming from "we don't know enough and I'm not willing to risk our kids" regardless of the chances of being infected.
There is nothing to be lost by being cautious as long as you don't let it drive you into poverty.
Some people can move to work-from-home. Others have to rely on cutting back on spending and dipping into savings. And this is the sort of long-term event we're supposed to be maintaining savings for in the first place.
I worry about people who bought into slacking, conspicuous consumption, and credit as a lifestyle. They are pretty screwed, just like those who made an effort but found the odds against them through no fault of their own. We've all made our share of bad choices and had misfortune, they just gang up on some people much harder than others.
So as we've known for over 7 months, China fudges its figures. It is basically relying on masks to moderate its run toward natural herd immunity. Has it worked? We can't tell, their figures are pure BS.
If you want to know where we are at turn on a TV and go to any channel but Faux news. The virus is exploding on a daily basis. We are shattering records.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by dilettante
There is nothing to be lost by being cautious as long as you don't let it drive you into poverty.
Some people can move to work-from-home. Others have to rely on cutting back on spending and dipping into savings. And this is the sort of long-term event we're supposed to be maintaining savings for in the first place.
I worry about people who bought into slacking, conspicuous consumption, and credit as a lifestyle. They are pretty screwed, just like those who made an effort but found the odds against them through no fault of their own. We've all made our share of bad choices and had misfortune, they just gang up on some people much harder than others.
Yeah I don't really feel the effects of covid, other than not being able to see my family, and my kids not going to school. I work from home, am able to get out and get all the supplies I need for any home-projects I want, and wasn't extremely social (other than work) anyway.
However, I have friends who were laid off for 6 months and were just getting a tax-free supplement.. They also didn't bother keeping any aside for taxes, so there is going to be another hit for them. They, obviously, are more angry about the whole situation than I am and are fed up with what little limitations we currently have in my city and they're pretty anti-mask.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Yeah, I'm pretty lucky as well. The company saw where things might be going, and had us do a "trial" wfh one day... that was Friday Mar 13 ... fortunately it was a success, as everything went to pot over the weekend, and we've been under a wfh mandate ever since. I worry it may become permanent... it has it's advantages (no commute)... but I do miss getting out of the house and seeing other people. As it is, the mandate is still in effect until Jan 4 '21. On a related note, overall they have noticed no discernible decline in productivity, that it has in fact gone up. We are achieving goals and levels of service ahead of what we had pre-covid. *shrug*
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
We aren't at a mandatory WFH, but most appear to be doing it anyways. For me, it saves a minimum of 70 minutes of driving, and two gallons of gas. That's fairly significant.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by dilettante
Makes you wonder what they're doing with all of that vacant office and supporting space. Filled with servers? Or warehousing all of the toilet paper?
That's an issue of concern for landlords. The Economist, and others, are reporting that several companies are likely never to go back to full occupancy...because if this works, they don't have to rent office space.
Ultimately, I think it works somewhat better for established employees rather than new employees. It gets pretty impersonal when you are always remote, so if relationships haven't formed, they likely won't, or at least not to the same extent.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Why didn't you qualify?
He doesn't mention naturally acquired herd immunity (in fact, he doesn't mention herd immunity at all) he says that the memory T cells produced as a side effect of a vaccine is likely to be effective.
Edit> missed a whole page of posts again. I really need to stop doing that.
Last edited by FunkyDexter; Oct 30th, 2020 at 05:38 AM.
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Maybe part of the reason I take this seriously when you don't seem to is I have felt the loss from people close to me. A co-worker's mother in law got it and died. He sister in law got it taking her to the hospital and later died. A good friend of mine's daughter caught it and died leaving behind two kids. People, mostly Trump supporters in my opinion, that down play what is going on stings to me. All three of them died in very unpleasant circumstances, that is, suffered until the end. Every single time you make light of that with your inane posts it just depresses me.
Last edited by TysonLPrice; Oct 30th, 2020 at 04:11 AM.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
You are of course correct that the chart shows how the U.S. hit its second wave earlier than those other countries
Look again. It's not a second wave, it's a third. You had one in March, one in June and now another in October. Worse, they're not really "waves" in the US, they're "step ups" because you've failed to get the infection rate back down again each time. This is important because, if you want to measure the damage that the virus has done, it's not the height of the curve, it's the area under it. That's where Trump's failure can be seen.
The current wave does appear, so far, to have hit Europe harder than the US but look back at March and you will see the same pattern. European surges preceded the US ones. If there was a line for Italy in that graph you'd see that effect really starkly. So you're take away from that graph should not be that the US's infection rate is somehow better than Europe's, the take away should be that it's probably simply lagging it. This is not to say that the US specifically lags Europe, rather that these waves hit different places at different times but, once one starts, it's going to go pretty much everywhere before long and there's nothing that's going to make the US exceptional in that.
Last edited by FunkyDexter; Oct 30th, 2020 at 09:51 AM.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter - Winston Churchill
Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
A friend of mine made an "interesting" suggestion (note the quotation-marks):
"Actually, we could defeat that blasted virus quite easily: The whole world just has to stop for 4 weeks, all at the same time.
And the impossibility of it is just a sad reflection of todays society"
An interesting idea.......
Just recently having watched a documentation about the Black Death in Europe some centuries ago, it kind of reminded me in a scary way of todays situation......
Last edited by Zvoni; Tomorrow at 31:69 PM.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
The U.S. as a whole hasn't done particularly well, it just isn't the extreme outlier failure the media here make it out to be for electioneering reasons.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Waves come in threes.
(I don't really believe that, it's just a common cliché)
@Dil: I disagree with the electioneering reasons. I'm a bit surprised that you do, because it seemed like you were taking the virus more seriously than I was, so to hear you suggesting that you no longer believe it is a bit disconcerting.
Idaho is gaining cases rapidly, but as in every other wave, we're kind of bush league. If we had a million cases...well, that would be pretty much all of us, so even with a surge, our actual number of cases isn't getting all that much attention anywhere else. We're having our own, private, pandemic. Out of sight, out of mind from the rest of the country, and handling it in that fashion, as well. We seem to be doing things differently from everyone else. We had a lockdown, a responsible plan for recovery, then ignored our plan. That's pretty consistent with other parts of the country, but what's really odd is that we're running a massive budget surplus at the state level.
Now we're doing a weak, wishy-washy, partial re-semi-lockdown. The governor laid out four stages of reopening, initially, with different types of businesses included in each of the different stages. Now we've stepped back from stage four to stage three, but not really stage three, because the set of businesses has changed in a fairly arbitrary fashion.
Overall, I'm still fine with this approach, as I benefit from it. However, it has hit somewhat close to home. I don't know anybody who has died, but a few people who got pretty sick. If that's as much impact as I feel, I'll be pretty happy with that.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
I think you are reading things into what I've said.
I take it quite seriously. I just don't buy the argument that we've made worse decisions than the rest of the planet and we're far worse off. We're bad off, but not in the worst shape.
I don't really see what else we could have done. If we wanted outcomes like NZ we'd have had to isolate a very large geographic area with tons of people (unlike tiny empty NZ or relatively empty Australia). Not only that, we'd really have to go ahead and interdict the breeding grounds, the big cities. That just wasn't going to happen for both social and economic reasons.
So it gets old watching the Biden Campaign fueling the insane hair on fire mentality, arguing both that "there is nothing to be done, the end is near" and "Trump didn't do enough, it's all his fault."
Frankly it was already clear enough by mid-January where things might go and what would stop them. We should have slammed the borders shut and blockaded every road leading in or out of our big cities. Our politicians all knew this. Instead the only viable thing to do was impose a lot of half-hearted measures at both the federal and state level and accept long term pain.
It still goes on today. Cities go through massive outbreaks, then you see the infection spikes ripple out across the countryside, bounce back from natural borders back into the cities. Rinse, repeat.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
I don't really see what else we could have done.
Then you haven't been paying attention to what places like South Korea have done. Testing and tracing, from the start, not after there are already 40,000 new cases a day.
Go to that link and sort the grid by deaths/million. Is the richest country with the most resources available suppose to have one of the highest death rates. Why aren't we leading the way and setting an example. The US has less than 5% of the worlds population but has 20% of the world deaths.
But we have a president that has down played (lied) about the problem, has never developed a meaningful national strategy and is going around the country holding mass rallies with no mask required. Trumps has been killing people for months. He might not pull the trigger but he leads them in front of the bullets.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Yeah, we couldn't match New Zealand. There are economies of scale...but not when it comes to quarantines.
Still, we could have done something more effective than what we did. We were destined to have 50 different responses, some of them good, some of them bad, and some of them both (Idaho). The initial lockdown should have given us time to do something, such as test and trace, but we couldn't do the first part, so the second part was kind of pointless. However, we recognized that we needed better testing, and it looks like we have that now. We could have foreseen that we would get to the point of better testing, at which point test and trace would have been viable in large parts of the country. To do so, we would have needed some effort put into the trace part, just as effort was put into the test part. That didn't happen, and that one IS on Trump. He's the only person who could have made it happen, and he explicitly did not.
So, how could he have made it happen? He could have made a deal with Nancy Pelosi, which McConnel would have gone along with. The deal would have included this or that, it barely matters, because the key point would have been the key sticking point that kept a second relief from getting accomplished: Aid for the states. Most states can't afford to do an effective test and trace. A patchwork effort would have been totally ineffective due to the issues of scale. Aid to the states with a stipulation of test and trace, with the backing of the president, would have made it happen. Poorly in some places, pretty well in others. I think this state would have done quite well, but ONLY if the president backed it. He wasn't willing to, though. He repeatedly said that he wouldn't accept any responsibility and that it was up to the states. That's not leadership. This state would have followed his lead had he led, but he refused, and here we are.
Trump had the ability, but he refused it, and in doing so, he has pretty much doomed any subsequent attempt. If he wins, he won't change anything for the better. If Biden wins, Trump will undermine any attempt to fix things. He'll still have the power to do so, because this state will still follow whatever petulant nonsense he comes up with.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Don't try to pretend there is some magic in "testing and tracing" because there is not. What South Korea did was test, trace, isolate, and when necessary incarcerate.
Being a relative monoculture with high levels of education, social cohesion, and personal responsibility the "isolate" step was very successful on a voluntary basis. Very few people had to be forcibly quarantined, but where necessary there was no hesitation and high public approval.
In the U.S. we have idiots of all stripes running around loose caring only about approval within their own cults. Cults believing in all sorts of craziness from normalization of narcotics consumption and burning down private property to worship of firearms or fanciful invisible entities living in other dimensions, trees, crystals, and/or manufactured idols. All of them suspicious of their government, their neighbors, and not even too sure about their own family members.
South Korea's model might have worked in the 1950s, early '60s U.S. but there is no way it could fly in the dystopia we have today. A dystopia wrought in large part by two political parties bent on dividing people into warring camps so they can be more easily controlled and milked of resources.
But there are a lot of simple minded people here who want to invoke the "test and trace" incantation. Well the Brits and French are doing that. How's that worked out for them, eh? Not well.
Last edited by dilettante; Oct 30th, 2020 at 06:55 PM.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by dilettante
Don't try to pretend there is some magic in "testing and tracing" because there is not. What South Korea did was test, trace, isolate, and when necessary incarcerate.
Being a relative monoculture with high levels of education, social cohesion, and personal responsibility the "isolate" step was very successful on a voluntary basis. Very few people had to be forcibly quarantined, but where necessary there was no hesitation and high public approval.
In the U.S. we have idiots of all stripes running around loose caring only about approval within their own cults. Cults believing in all sorts of craziness from normalization of narcotics consumption and burning down private property to worship of firearms or fanciful invisible entities living in other dimensions, trees, crystals, and/or manufactured idols. All of them suspicious of their government, their neighbors, and not even too sure about their own family members.
South Korea's model might have worked in the 1950s, early '60s U.S. but there is no way it could fly in the dystopia we have today. A dystopia wrought in large part by two political parties bent on dividing people into warring camps so they can be more easily controlled and milked of resources.
But there are a lot of simple minded people here who want to invoke the "test and trace" incantation. Well the Brits and French are doing that. How's that worked out for them, eh? Not well.
Typical Trump answer. Criticize everyone else and take no responsibility.
In the U.S. we have idiots of all stripes running around loose caring only about approval within their own cults
Do you think the US is the only country with idiots? Nothing you said answers why the US has 20% of the worlds deaths from the virus. I can't speak to why other counties are failing but why did you avoid talking about our national leadership.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Face it, you won't accept any input that doesn't feed your political narrative. For example you missed my entire point about the case of South Korea that was raised. South Korea is not like you, and if "Trump" had tried the same thing you'd be even more up in arms about infringement on your self-entitlement.
"Leadership" at all levels was perfectly aware of all of this and did the best it could under these conditions. Did poorly, but what are you going to do with a nation of spoiled children to deal with?
Or prove me wrong and tell us what could have been done. In detail, without childish wishful incantations like "test and trace" placebos please.
I don't see anything we could have done better without martial law and FEMA camps to warehouse the infected for 2 or 3 weeks of quarantine, only after clamping borders shut and blockading internal transportation routes. We have too many spoiled knotheads for anything else to have made a dent.
The problem isn't Trump, the problem is us.
Me? I stay to hell home as much as possible. If I have to go out I wear a mask and grit my teeth knowing it doesn't protect me and that you don't wear masks or limit your exposure. I try to stick to early or late hours hoping the crowds will be thinner, and I get through it as quickly as I can. If I'm lucky you won't hijack or firebomb my car as you are out for a Stridin' for Biden tantrum in a mob of fellow travellers.
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Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Well the Brits and French are doing that.
We're not. We say we are... but we're not.
In the U.S. we have idiots of all stripes running around loose caring only about approval within their own cults. Cults believing in all sorts of craziness from normalization of narcotics consumption and burning down private property to worship of firearms or fanciful invisible entities living in other dimensions, trees, crystals, and/or manufactured idols. All of them suspicious of their government, their neighbors, and not even too sure about their own family members.
Trump has actively been fostering those cults... so there's that.
Had Trump lent his voice to the measures we know to be effective - which essentially equate to minimising viral contact, whether that's by isolation, regular handwashing, mask wearing or social distancing - that would have had some impact. I agree with you that that the US has more than its fair share of crazies but a whole, heapin' helping of them would have followed his lead. Sure, a whole bunch of them would have just gone ahead and indulged their crazy but he had a choice to move the needle in one of two directions and he chose which way he was going to move it.
He denied the virus was even a thing; he held unmasked, non socially distanced rallies where his followers, including Whitehouse officials, were hugging each other; he mocked mask wearing; he undermined medical scientists when they called for effective measures; when some states attempted to lock down he actively stoked his followers to break those lockdowns; he declared that the virus would be over by April (remember that?) and continues to declare that there will be a vaccine in general distribution by the end of the year...
The choices that he made and continues to make are a large part of the reason that, unlike the other countries from your graph, the US has yet to bring it's infection rate down since the first wave, let alone the second or third (I appreciate expecting the third to have been brought down would be a bit much at this stage). Trump is not responsible for the virus, nor is he responsible for every American death from it, but his choices, his rhetoric and his stance have meant that tens of thousands of Americans are dead now who didn't need to be.
The US has not fared the worst in the world, that's true. You're currently 9th from bottom. I don't feel that citing that is a good way to make your argument.
Last edited by FunkyDexter; Oct 31st, 2020 at 02:28 PM.
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Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Me? I stay to hell home as much as possible. If I have to go out I wear a mask and grit my teeth knowing it doesn't protect me and that you don't wear masks or limit your exposure. I try to stick to early or late hours hoping the crowds will be thinner, and I get through it as quickly as I can. If I'm lucky you won't hijack or firebomb my car as you are out for a Stridin' for Biden tantrum in a mob of fellow travellers.
You are funny, WRONG but funny. I always wear a mask, don't do any Striden and the main people throwing tantrums are the anti-maskers.
The problem isn't Trump, the problem is us.
The people of this country are certainly part of the problem, that is why leadership is so important.
So if Trump couldn't have done anything better then you must think these things were the best actions:
1. Constantly lying about the severity of the problem. Provided no leadership by developing a meaningful national strategy, put the burden on the states to come up with 50 different plans.
2. Constantly fighting against the need for Testing and tracing. Fought against nationalizing the production of tests, PPE and medicines.
3. Ridicule people who wear masks. Fought against mask mandates.
4. Wanted to reopen the country on April 1st. Pressured governors for early reopening which lead to huge spikes in many states like Tx, Fl., Az. Overwhelming the hospital systems.
5. Violates his own CDC guidelines and holds mass rallies, not requiring masks. Why should anyone follow the CDC guidelines, the president doesn't think it's necessary, nothing wrong with maskless mass gathering.
I'll stop there. If you really can't see anything we could have done better that would be amazing. Then maybe the people are the problem.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
On a lighter note.
Talked to my sister in La. a couple of days ago, mentioned that is was a shame that the virus cases were at record highs, there had been over 80,000 new cases and over 1,000 deaths that day. She was surprised to hear that, said she hadn't hear anything about it and said she listens to the news every day for 2 or 3 hours. When I asked which station she said FOX, I suggested that's the reason she hadn't head about the sharp rise in cases. But she firmly told me that all the other stations were too hateful, that's why she watches FOX. I found that amusing. I guess if they tell ya what you want to hear, it's always good news. lol
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
It is probably more productive to focus on things we can do something about.
Wash hands, wear masks, etc. to avoid spreading to others since we might be asymptomatic and not realize it yet. Stay away from others to limit spread even more, including spreading to ourselves from others.
If sick isolate yourself even more. If sick with COVID-19 symptoms, get tested. Self-quarantine until you receive negative results or 14 to 21 days have passed.
Take your Vitamin D and Zinc supplements to help your body respond the best it can in the event of infection. Doesn't hurt to keep Vitamin C levels up either though direct evidence seems a little slimmer. Good nutrition comes first, of course. If you have other risk factors you can do something about, do it.
Beyond that it is a waiting game. Hope for effective vaccines before your number comes up.
Don't rail against imagined enemies pretending they are denying you access to a magical phone-based video game. if superstition comforts you, such video game apps are already available to you.
If you question the immoral selfishness of people around you find a nice stretch of highway with some traffic and try driving the speed limit. Everyone who passes you is a COVID vector ready to pounce on you. That's why we don't have nice things like they do in South Korea.
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by TysonLPrice
Deleted ...once again let personal loss taint my reasoning..sorry..dil
I had no problem with your reasoning. But your delivery was a little harsh. lol
I find it encouraging that the people on this forum have been able to have an exchange of opinions on such an explosive subject without a barrage of insults. Sure doesn't happen this way with my family and friends. lol
Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.
Originally Posted by wes4dbt
I had no problem with your reasoning. But your delivery was a little harsh. lol
I find it encouraging that the people on this forum have been able to have an exchange of opinions on such an explosive subject without a barrage of insults. Sure doesn't happen this way with my family and friends. lol
Guilty as charged...I'll try and make a point of friendly exchange going forward.