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Thread: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

  1. #2121
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    CDC: Interim Public Health Recommendations for Fully Vaccinated People

    Things are beginning to open up for most of the US.

  2. #2122

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Been a while since I've poked my head back in to this thread.

    Parents got their vaccine today. Process was smooth.

    When I heard that younger people are getting much worse cases of Covid now than last year, the first thing that pops into my head is that these are probably people that got it last year and were asymptomatic and probably didn't know they had it. And for whatever reason, getting it a second time is worse. If there is any pattern to that (second infection is "worse" than the first), then society as we know it is essentially changed for at least the rest of all of our lives. Vaccinating everyone on earth every 6 months is logistically impossible.

    That's all from me for a while again for this thread.

    Good luck and stay well everyone.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    They don't take any other defensive measures, they just want to wait for the medicine, and the oxygen tank, and the new crown vaccine.

    A more terrible virus occurred, and eventually Ren'ai Reef was greatly destroyed.

    Because quarantine hand washing is the most cost-effective way.

  4. #2124
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    We Chinese can build a makeshift hospital of tens of thousands of wards in ten days.
    China has a lot of experience in new crown epidemic prevention, but there are so many countries around the world. Just learn from five% to ten methods, if you can learn half, new crown viruses may disappear long before half a year.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The high-speed rail subway is very developed in China. India is still using the railway 60 or 70 years ago. And the train is very old, the railway is also a lot of problems.

    So they want to build a makeshift hospital first, first of all, they won't do it, they don't value them at all, and they don't have the ability and the money.

    Electricity is cheaper in China than in Japan, which is four times as expensive.

    There are many super hydropower stations in China. In India, it took them 30 to 50 years to build a new dam and once it started to release water, it all collapsed.

    Electricity is in short supply in India. How can a country do without electricity and roads?

    New crematoriums are springing up all over India.Crematoria are being built all over India. I saw on WeChat that the temperature was very high and the machine was very polluted.

    Their water is full of virus.Their Ganges water is full of viruses,Their Ganges water is full of viruses, no electricity, and the water is very poor.
    https://kandianshare.html5.qq.com/v3...=0&from_app=qb
    Last edited by xiaoyao; Apr 30th, 2021 at 12:50 AM.

  6. #2126
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    That's pretty misleading. China has slow speed railways, as well. There's a reason for that: Speed isn't free, or particularly cheap. Some places benefit from high speed, others benefit from low cost. Sure, India has only one of those, but I'm not sure it isn't the right one for them.

    Electricity is cheaper in China because the cost isn't priced into it in quite the way it is elsewhere.

    Water is full of viruses. There are enough in the ocean to kill everybody on earth. We aren't all dead because our bodies can deal with most of them. We can deal with a certain amount of pollution of other sorts, too, and I wouldn't say that China can say that it is doing better than anyone else on that front. There's a lot of work left to be done.
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  7. #2127
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I hope no pharmaceutical boot is copying this because next year we will forced to vaccinate for water viruses or die!
    .

  8. #2128
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I knew a pharmacist who was so well aware of the viruses in the ocean that she wouldn't go into the water with any open cut. There are viruses in the ocean, that if they get past your defenses, you will die. Frankly, sailors would have died out a LONG time back if our bodies didn't USUALLY handle those viruses.

    I wouldn't go getting too much after the pharmaceutical industry on this (a boot??? you have some strange words, but that one I don't know in this context. Would that be a dirty heel?). Up until COVID, there were people lamenting the way the pharmaceutical industry was paying so little attention to vaccines because they were low profit margin solutions. That's still the case, with COVID being an exception because a few countries paid large sums up front for them. Without that, we'd...probably be India, at least here in the US.

    Consider rabies (I spelled that with two b's at first, and autocorrect wanted to make it rabbis...HA!): It's almost invariably fatal (there have been a few survivors in the last few years, but only a few), and horrible (it's the closest we come to a true zombie virus), and there is a vaccine that works, but you don't see many people getting it.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I wrote bot, it came out boot.
    Meh.

    Well as for sea viruses, Greece has many of the best and cleanest seas with lot of Blue flags awards. So I wouldn't worry so much.
    An idea that Government may have would be is a Covid seas virus (slogan been "You swim, you dive, you die!"), that will prevent us from going on summer vacations this year and spread the virus...Not.
    .

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    In any case, if the situation can not be dealt with under control, the hospital will not be able to live in the end, even breathing is difficult.No oxygen, no business, no orders. The funds accumulated in the past have been spent.It's like a person at the beginning of what disease did not go to check, and finally developed into heart disease and cancer, really incurable.

    If you can do it again, maybe the Americans and Indians still like to choose quarantine for one month like the Chinese.Then the world will be completely free of the new crown virus in two or three months. 。I have a few pimples on my face now, and I can squeeze out pus.Sometimes such a small problem can make you very painful.

    Last year and the beginning of this year, there was a long period of time, often coughing very badly.Even if this is not threatening, but. Sneezing is very serious like a cold, and the runny nose is painful. I am very strange, I forgot to buy medicine, just a few days, I thought it was just a simple cold.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    It wouldn't have worked in the US, and especially not with the current climate. A third of the country wouldn't quarantine, and another third would say they did and not do it.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I'm not sure those are as close to 1/3 and 1/3 but more like 1/5 and 1/5, but why split hairs? That's still a lot of diseased bees scurrying back to the hives.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    2020-9-28,Indian Ministry of Railways minister, infected with the new crown virus died. Moody's to fly flags at half-mast as a matter of National Ritual.

    In fact, Andadi publicly disclosed our own things about neozel pneumonia, as well as many key people infected, Moti should realize the seriousness of the problem. The current epidemic crisis in India has developed to a very serious situation. If it is no longer working, the consequences are even more imagined. However, the outside world is obvious than India, and the Indian government has more attaches great importance to the various conflicts and contradictions of the border than the domestic epidemic.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    We found that the general incubation period of this virus is three weeks. so we chose to quarantine one or two months. The sick people either went to the hospital for treatment or died at home.Very few people, they might.
    Some people are infected with the virus, but his body is strong and has little effect, but he can pass it on to others, ah, and cause many deaths.


    If more than half of the population is infected, as in India, the result is almost 100% infection.
    Basically, this is one infection, a thousand.In theory. For every one in a thousand infections in a country, it could be 100%.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    What is probably holding China's attention is the fact that India thought they had the virus beaten, too, and were bragging about beating it as China has done. China will respond better than India did, we have already seen that, but it's not over until it's truly over.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    We aren't all dead because our bodies can deal with most of them
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0713100911.htm

    There is strong scientific consensus that viruses were/are critical to human evolution. A large part of out body mass is bacteria and viruses.

    Biologists estimate that 380 trillion viruses are living on and inside your body right nowó10 times the number of bacteria. Some can cause illness, but many simply coexist with you.
    Please remember next time...elections matter!

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by TysonLPrice View Post
    A large part of out body mass is bacteria and viruses.
    So that's "the science" talking there, is it?

    Sorry, I have to go find my eyeballs. They seem to have rolled right out of my head.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Not too sure what that comment is about. It has been generally stated for a long time that there are more bacteria cells inside the average human than human cells. Technically, this may not be true, though, as it depends to some extent on your definition of "inside". For those numbers to add up, I believe that you must include the gut, and the skin surface. Technically, the gut is inside you and not inside you. Since the gut in a continuous tube that runs through the body, we could be seen as doughnuts of a VERY peculiar shape (though we are headed towards the typical doughnut shape, over time), and the gut is the hole in the doughnut. As for the skin, that's more complicated.

    So, what are you rolling your eyes about?
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    What would you consider "a large part?"

    I guess 1 to 3% (which is probably high by a factor of 10) must be "a large part" if one doesn't know the meaning of "large."

  20. #2140

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    What is probably holding China's attention is the fact that India thought they had the virus beaten, too, and were bragging about beating it as China has done. China will respond better than India did, we have already seen that, but it's not over until it's truly over.
    The unfortunate thing is we'll likely never know the actual number of infected people worldwide for a variety of reasons (lack of early testing, high number of asymptomatic people, politics, etc.). Amazing that North Korea still hasn't had a single case, right?

    The official number of infections and deaths in China haven't really changed much in almost a year. But if you just look at the availability of products made in China over that same time across many industries, its pretty clear that things aren't back to normal there. Not by a long shot.

    I don't think the virus is as deterred simply by national pride as the Chinese would want the rest of the world to believe.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Biologists estimate that 380 trillion viruses are living on and inside your body right now
    That's an interesting number. I hope its 380 trillion cells, not 380 trillion different virus types. That would be surprising.

  22. #2142

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Some time in the next day or days I'm going to calculate the Covid deaths as a percentage of population for advanced countries. I'm saying advanced countries since some 3rd world countries still lack proper testing/resources/etc and are very unlikely to "waste" a test on a dead person when they have limited tests to begin with, so their numbers are likely to be undercounted.

    Any bets on how many standard deviations off the mean China's "official" numbers will end up being? Fairly sure it will be so statistically improbable that the chances of the numbers being real are much less than 1 in Earth's total human population.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    What would you consider "a large part?"

    I guess 1 to 3% (which is probably high by a factor of 10) must be "a large part" if one doesn't know the meaning of "large."
    Well, excrement is probably made up as a proportionately large number of bacteria. What percentage by weight or volume, I couldn't say. However, if we were to assume that excrement is 50% bacteria by volume, then I think there are people walking around who have a bacteria component of about 40%, or more, by volume.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by OptionBase1 View Post
    Some time in the next day or days I'm going to calculate the Covid deaths as a percentage of population for advanced countries. I'm saying advanced countries since some 3rd world countries still lack proper testing/resources/etc and are very unlikely to "waste" a test on a dead person when they have limited tests to begin with, so their numbers are likely to be undercounted.

    Any bets on how many standard deviations off the mean China's "official" numbers will end up being? Fairly sure it will be so statistically improbable that the chances of the numbers being real are much less than 1 in Earth's total human population.
    I think the numbers are significantly off for a lot of countries.

    But this site might help you.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    It's sortable

  25. #2145
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Just looked at the Idaho vaccination numbers. Vaccine supply is increasing steadily, and pulling further and further away from demand. Meanwhile the number of people with one dose is starting to level off. We're flattening the curve. Unfortunately, we're flattening the wrong curve, if those numbers are correct. By extrapolation, it looks like Idaho may never top 40% vaccinated. The number with two doses is catching up to the level with one dose, which makes sense. Eventually, those two numbers should very nearly meet (some portion will get the first and never get the second). I was kind of hoping they'd meet up around 70%, but it's looking like they'll meet around 40% by early June.

    It may turn out that the red/blue coloration of the states will represent COVID infections.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Perhaps it makes more sense to switch to "allocation to the willing" than as until now, where Feds have demanded "allocation by population density."

    Current policy starves one fringe of the spectrum that doesn't want vaccination while dumping excess supply into the other fringe of refuseniks. At least putting supply where demand exists would make good use of the overall supply rather than risk so much waste due to spoilage.


    https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations has coarse maps by State but not finer (e.g. by county) which are more indicative of the allocation and waste going on.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Process:

    Calculated the Population/Reported Covid Deaths for most of the world.
    Excluded China from the statistical calculation due to massive outlier status.

    Results:

    N = 104 countries
    Mean = 6488 (that is 1 death for each 6488 people)
    Standard Deviation: 13342

    China's value: 1 death for each 303663 people. Or over 22 standard deviations above the mean.

    I guess the rest of the world isn't patriotic enough or something. Damn.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Not sure patriotism had anything to do with it. In China, you do what your told or there will be significant negative consequences. Though, that's just a guess. I have no first hand knowledge.

    people in the US, UK, EU talk about being in lockdown. Not even close. But people were whining and complaining like they were being held in POW camp. So, we're paying for our freedom with our lives. I'll still take democracy.

    Also, tracking software was a requirement.

  29. #2149
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    China doesn't have SkyNet level Hunter-Killers (yet) but they do have big drones they use to circle above people and emit audio admonitions about wearing a mask and not loitering in close groups. Such public shaming probably goes a long way with people who care what neighbors think. No so much elsewhere though where a lot of people know no shame.


  30. #2150

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    Not sure patriotism had anything to do with it. In China, you do what your told or there will be significant negative consequences. Though, that's just a guess. I have no first hand knowledge.

    people in the US, UK, EU talk about being in lockdown. Not even close. But people were whining and complaining like they were being held in POW camp. So, we're paying for our freedom with our lives. I'll still take democracy.

    Also, tracking software was a requirement.
    You seem to have missed my point. My patriotism comment was said tongue in cheek, and China's numbers are complete hogwash IMO. China almost certainly has had close to or exceeding a million deaths by now.

    It started there. Its existence was denied, then obscured (remember when there was no human to human transmissions? If you were paying attention in very early 2020 that was the official Chinese story). China has many ultra-high density population centers (Covid wet-dream territory), and I doubt many people had the resources (food, water, medicine, etc.) to literally barricade themselves behind their doors and stay inside for months.

    So, yeah. When people say we should have been like China, I guess they mean we should have just stopped reporting any new infections about a year ago. Hell, Trump might still be in office if that was done. Good heavens.

  31. #2151
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Don't know what your all worked up about. I never even said I disagree with you. lol

    But if your must know, I don't agree with you. I'm sure there numbers are off but not that off. Even China can't hide a million bodies. That's my opinion, take it or leave it.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I agree. I'd guess that their numbers are higher than official reports, but not a whole lot higher. They have been slamming closed towns and cities if there is even a hint of an outbreak. I'd say they had a lot of deaths in Wuhan, but isolated areas so effectively that it just couldn't spread far and wide.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    Don't know what your all worked up about. I never even said I disagree with you. lol

    But if your must know, I don't agree with you. I'm sure there numbers are off but not that off. Even China can't hide a million bodies. That's my opinion, take it or leave it.
    The bulk of my post wasn't a direct reply to you or your post, sorry.

    As for your second point: see uighurs. Also, I don't get that argument to begin with. Hiding bodies? What are you even talking about? People die all the time, so it happening a little more isn't something that needs to be hidden. They probably have 10+ million people that die each year, so an additional 10% on top of that is easily "accommodated" without needing to hide anything other than cause of death. And if there aren't any Covid cases in circulation, then clearly no one is dying of Covid wink wink wink.

  34. #2154
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I think the annual death rate in the US is roughly 0.1%, so I would guess that China has roughly 1 million deaths/year under normal circumstances.

    Still, they haven't managed to hide much of anything. When they've tried to hide things, they've generally failed. See Uighurs, COVID, Wuhan, Tiananmen Square, Hong Kong, etc. They air their dirty laundry in public almost as effectively as we do.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    I think the annual death rate in the US is roughly 0.1%, so I would guess that China has roughly 1 million deaths/year under normal circumstances.
    You think or you know... #Dwight
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    It's more like 0.85%. 1.4 billion x 0.85% = 11.9 million

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    And it should be obvious via one of those "how many ping pong balls can fit in the cabin of a commercial airliner" type "think through it" logic question that it should be around 1%, based simply on average lifespan, and then some mild accounting for the fact that the population is growing, so there will generally be larger numbers of people in certain age brackets as time progresses, meaning the size of the 70-79 crowd and the 80-89 crowd will generally be smaller than the size of the 0-10 crowd, etc.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    My last point on the topic for a good while. I should have phrased my earlier comment about a million deaths differently. It wouldn't surprise me if it is that many. It may or may not be. It certainly isn't infeasible though.

    And think about it this way for a second. Imagine you are in charge of a country of 1.4 billion people with a pandemic on your hands. You have literally done everything within your power to try to control it, as I truly believe China has done, and has likely done it better than any other country. But what if it still isn't enough? What if it isn't enough because it is logistically impossible to meet everyone's needs but without people coming in contact with each other in groups of significant size? If you are honest, that the pandemic continued to get worse, morale in your country is terrible AND you have a pandemic on your hands. If you declare victory over the virus (but keep the lockdowns in place "just to be safe"), morale in your country is boosted big time (look at how bad the rest of the world is doing! but not us!) BUT you have a pandemic on your hands. Logic alone dictates the latter is the correct decision. High population morale + pandemic > Low population morale + pandemic. I'm not saying its the morally right thing to do, but hell, that might just be a Western concept of morality talking to begin with.

    Have fun everyone. Stay safe.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I lied. One more post to demonstrate my point.

    Deep Impact (giggity) scenario. A gigantic asteroid is found and is potentially going to hit the earth in the nearish future. The chances of a humanity destroying impact are 80%. Should the public know?

    Absolutely not. Here's why.

    We don't care about the 80%, because that die has been cast. We only care about the 20%. If disclosure is made, there will be a B% chance that there will be complete societal breakdown. Based on recent events, I'm fairly sure this would be a very high percentage. People will stop going to work, money will lose value, looting, burning, complete chaos, etc.

    Results for telling the public:
    80% - (Impact) Everything dies
    20% * B% - (Miss but society crumbles beforehand) Yay! We survive...but at what cost?
    20% - (20% * B%) - (Miss but somehow society isn't negatively affected by foreknowledge) Yay! See, we knew we could handle the truth!

    Even if B% is 50%, that still means that half the time we "win" we still lose.

    Results for not telling the public:
    80% - (Impact) Everything dies
    20% - (No impact) Blurb on the news about Nasa spotting a previously unknown asteroid as it skirted past the earth. Some people's interest is mildly piqued before returning to their Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok feeds.

    Back to China. The problem is that China isn't a country in a vacuum. So if they are lying about Covid numbers because the truth is domestically worse societally than a lie, it then can lead to a false "good example" to point to and say "we're clearly not taking the virus seriously here in (other country that is releasing honest numbers), because look at how good the numbers are in China!"

    Ok. Now I'm done in this thread for at least tonight, but hopefully for much longer than that.

  39. #2159
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by OptionBase1 View Post
    You think or you know... #Dwight
    I THINK... #Ryan

    It's more like 0.85%. 1.4 billion x 0.85% = 11.9 million
    I was misremembering, and off by a factor of 10. Oops.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by OptionBase1 View Post
    Process:

    Calculated the Population/Reported Covid Deaths for most of the world.
    Excluded China from the statistical calculation due to massive outlier status.

    Results:

    N = 104 countries
    Mean = 6488 (that is 1 death for each 6488 people)
    Standard Deviation: 13342

    China's value: 1 death for each 303663 people. Or over 22 standard deviations above the mean.

    I guess the rest of the world isn't patriotic enough or something. Damn.
    Did your count include Australia or New Zealand? How did either of those countries fare in your analysis?
    My usual boring signature: Nothing

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