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Thread: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

  1. #1481
    Super Moderator si_the_geek's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    There are new tests becoming available which can apparently give results in under an hour, and are based on a simple saliva swab.

    I don't know how many will be available, or whether they'll make it across the pond to you guys.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I was listening to an interesting interview yesterday where a virologist was pointing out that test and trace was largely pointless without mass randomised testing to start finding carriers before they're symptomatic, if they become symptomatic at all.
    One of the universities has been doing a fairly large randomised test for months (about 100 thousand people I think), but it is tiny in comparison to what we need. It has been great at finding out how many people get the virus without symptoms tho - apparently 80% of the people who get the virus have no symptoms.

    Hopefully the new quick tests will help with testing and tracking (as it sounds like they will be cheaper, and less work for the staff), and so will better uptake of the app (as it apparently does automatic contact tracing and alerting people that they need to isolate due to a contact).

  2. #1482
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by si_the_geek View Post

    I don't know how many will be available, or whether they'll make it across the pond to you guys.
    THAT is what I'm more worried about. We haven't had effective use of the tests we already have. It does seem to be getting better out here in the hinterlands, but it doesn't seem consistent.
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  3. #1483
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Yeah, it seems to be based on where you live.

    Right now anyone in Detroit can get a free test on demand. Everyone else has free State-funded testing available, but only on proof of need (health or elder care worker, doctor's prescription). Things are getting more open but they don't take just anyone. If you are retired or got laid off and stay home you are on your own.

    https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus...0157--,00.html

    There are also options like Rite Aid testing, but only in a handful of locations mainly in big cities so far. It appears to be tied to Google for some odd reason and requires installing a phone app and allowing monitoring and taking regular surveys. It is probably too invasive of private information for a lot of people.

  4. #1484
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The delay isn't the time it takes for the test itself, it's the logistics. The test itself takes less than 24 hours and in the UK we typically turn them around within 48 hours. We may not have the logistics in place to achieve a 24 hour turn around but if we're talking about an ideal world it's what we should be aiming for.

    But it's not really about the time it takes to turn the test around because that time will be lost whether we're doing mass randomised testing or testing in response to symptoms. What we're doing at the moment is waiting for people to become symptomatic, which means they can have been spreading for a week before we even start to recognise that tracing is something we might need to do. Randomised testing removes that week.


    Edit> Accidentally missed a page of posts I didn't know that the test time was an hour as Si says but I think that does back up what I was saying about it being a problem of logistics. Availability of tests will be an issue if we want move to mass testing but, again, that's really an issue of production/logistics and therefore addressable with enough effort.

    It is probably too invasive of private information for a lot of people.
    I think that's a really important consideration. The uptake of our test and trace app has been low because of this and they've just announced that the data from the test and trace system as a whole is going to be shared with the police which is likely to drive the engagement down further.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Oct 18th, 2020 at 05:04 AM.
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  5. #1485
    Hyperactive Member Delaney's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by si_the_geek View Post
    There are new tests becoming available which can apparently give results in under an hour, and are based on a simple saliva swab.
    Yep, a sister company of the group of which I belong developed such a test. The result are pretty impressive, result in 45 minutes, 87% to be detected, 99% the result is correct.

    https://www.cnrs.fr/en/covid-19-launch-production-phase-easycov-saliva-based-screening-test-market-entry-france-and-europe

    https://www.cnrs.fr/en/covid-19-easy...eal-situations
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  6. #1486
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Availability of tests will be an issue if we want move to mass testing but, again, that's really an issue of production/logistics and therefore addressable with enough effort.
    Oh. Effort. THAT's what we've been missing. We don't DO effort, especially these days.
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  7. #1487
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    What good is a test today tomorrow? Retesting needs to be done at least weekly. Daily testing is probably impractical until they open those drive-up Instant Testing booths. Breath on a strip, if it turns yellow you're infected. Sort of like soil testing.

  8. #1488
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    What good is a test today tomorrow?
    A lot of good if your goal is Test and Trace. If you're carrying infectious, the risk of you passing it on increases exponentially over time. You meet 5 people today and put them at risk. Each of them puts 5 people at risk tomorrow and each of them put 5 people at risk the day after.

    It's the difference between having to trace and contact 5 people if the turn around is a day and 78,125 people if the turn around is a week. (Assuming an average daily contact rate of 5 people which I'll freely admit I've pulled out of thin air)
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  9. #1489
    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Breath on a strip, if it turns yellow you're infected.
    Either that or you have REALLY bad breath.
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  10. #1490
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    "Test and Trace" seems like a placebo, where the tests don't have to be effective or accurate and the actual goal is harvesting information on personal movement. No care at all about spreading the infection.

    "Test and Quarantine" might do some good with effective testing and a secure leper colony to whisk positives off to for 14 to 21 days.

  11. #1491
    Super Moderator FunkyDexter's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The quarantine part is clearly implied, though, you're right that it would be pointless without it.
    You can depend upon the Americans to do the right thing. But only after they have exhausted every other possibility - Winston Churchill

    Hadoop actually sounds more like the way they greet each other in Yorkshire - Inferrd

  12. #1492
    Frenzied Member jdc2000's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.


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