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Thread: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

  1. #1481
    Super Moderator si_the_geek's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    There are new tests becoming available which can apparently give results in under an hour, and are based on a simple saliva swab.

    I don't know how many will be available, or whether they'll make it across the pond to you guys.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    I was listening to an interesting interview yesterday where a virologist was pointing out that test and trace was largely pointless without mass randomised testing to start finding carriers before they're symptomatic, if they become symptomatic at all.
    One of the universities has been doing a fairly large randomised test for months (about 100 thousand people I think), but it is tiny in comparison to what we need. It has been great at finding out how many people get the virus without symptoms tho - apparently 80% of the people who get the virus have no symptoms.

    Hopefully the new quick tests will help with testing and tracking (as it sounds like they will be cheaper, and less work for the staff), and so will better uptake of the app (as it apparently does automatic contact tracing and alerting people that they need to isolate due to a contact).

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by si_the_geek View Post

    I don't know how many will be available, or whether they'll make it across the pond to you guys.
    THAT is what I'm more worried about. We haven't had effective use of the tests we already have. It does seem to be getting better out here in the hinterlands, but it doesn't seem consistent.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Yeah, it seems to be based on where you live.

    Right now anyone in Detroit can get a free test on demand. Everyone else has free State-funded testing available, but only on proof of need (health or elder care worker, doctor's prescription). Things are getting more open but they don't take just anyone. If you are retired or got laid off and stay home you are on your own.

    https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus...0157--,00.html

    There are also options like Rite Aid testing, but only in a handful of locations mainly in big cities so far. It appears to be tied to Google for some odd reason and requires installing a phone app and allowing monitoring and taking regular surveys. It is probably too invasive of private information for a lot of people.

  4. #1484
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The delay isn't the time it takes for the test itself, it's the logistics. The test itself takes less than 24 hours and in the UK we typically turn them around within 48 hours. We may not have the logistics in place to achieve a 24 hour turn around but if we're talking about an ideal world it's what we should be aiming for.

    But it's not really about the time it takes to turn the test around because that time will be lost whether we're doing mass randomised testing or testing in response to symptoms. What we're doing at the moment is waiting for people to become symptomatic, which means they can have been spreading for a week before we even start to recognise that tracing is something we might need to do. Randomised testing removes that week.


    Edit> Accidentally missed a page of posts I didn't know that the test time was an hour as Si says but I think that does back up what I was saying about it being a problem of logistics. Availability of tests will be an issue if we want move to mass testing but, again, that's really an issue of production/logistics and therefore addressable with enough effort.

    It is probably too invasive of private information for a lot of people.
    I think that's a really important consideration. The uptake of our test and trace app has been low because of this and they've just announced that the data from the test and trace system as a whole is going to be shared with the police which is likely to drive the engagement down further.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Oct 18th, 2020 at 05:04 AM.
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    Hyperactive Member Delaney's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by si_the_geek View Post
    There are new tests becoming available which can apparently give results in under an hour, and are based on a simple saliva swab.
    Yep, a sister company of the group of which I belong developed such a test. The result are pretty impressive, result in 45 minutes, 87% to be detected, 99% the result is correct.

    https://www.cnrs.fr/en/covid-19-launch-production-phase-easycov-saliva-based-screening-test-market-entry-france-and-europe

    https://www.cnrs.fr/en/covid-19-easy...eal-situations
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by FunkyDexter View Post
    Availability of tests will be an issue if we want move to mass testing but, again, that's really an issue of production/logistics and therefore addressable with enough effort.
    Oh. Effort. THAT's what we've been missing. We don't DO effort, especially these days.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    What good is a test today tomorrow? Retesting needs to be done at least weekly. Daily testing is probably impractical until they open those drive-up Instant Testing booths. Breath on a strip, if it turns yellow you're infected. Sort of like soil testing.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    What good is a test today tomorrow?
    A lot of good if your goal is Test and Trace. If you're carrying infectious, the risk of you passing it on increases exponentially over time. You meet 5 people today and put them at risk. Each of them puts 5 people at risk tomorrow and each of them put 5 people at risk the day after.

    It's the difference between having to trace and contact 5 people if the turn around is a day and 78,125 people if the turn around is a week. (Assuming an average daily contact rate of 5 people which I'll freely admit I've pulled out of thin air)
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Breath on a strip, if it turns yellow you're infected.
    Either that or you have REALLY bad breath.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    "Test and Trace" seems like a placebo, where the tests don't have to be effective or accurate and the actual goal is harvesting information on personal movement. No care at all about spreading the infection.

    "Test and Quarantine" might do some good with effective testing and a secure leper colony to whisk positives off to for 14 to 21 days.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The quarantine part is clearly implied, though, you're right that it would be pointless without it.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.


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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    WOW, France 40,000, Spain 20,000 and the UK 20,000. For some reason Germany has been doing much better than the other European countries. The US is up to 60,000 a day again. I wonder sometimes if other countries are not testing much and under counting the COVID deaths. If not, then the US and Europe must have an above average amount of self entitled idiots. We have the money and health care systems that should make us have the lowest deaths per capita. Instead we are near the highest rates. South America is right up their with us but at least they have the excuse of high poverty and poor health care systems.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Yes we reached a rate of 16% of case (number of detected/ number tested), people in hospital, under breathing system and dying are also rising fast again...

    If not, then the US and Europe must have an above average amount of self entitled idiots
    Yes, France has a good reputation for that and it is well deserved. More and more people are not wearing the mask correctly (keep it under the nose) and the young one just remove it as soon as nobody is watching.

    we have also a government that think that you can catch covid in a restaurant or in a theater but not in a overcrowded train or subway, a classroom or in an university amphitheater...
    Last edited by Delaney; Oct 22nd, 2020 at 03:55 PM. Reason: typo
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  15. #1495
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by wes4dbt View Post
    For some reason Germany has been doing much better than the other European countries.
    They have the best health care (in Europe at least), and were properly prepared for a pandemic - the UK prepared poorly for a different kind of pandemic (Flu based, and the stock was out of date).

    It also helps that their leader is female, as apparently countries with a female leader have performed much better than others - because they focus more on the health rather than the economy (which will automatically be better if the infection is under control).

    I wonder sometimes if other countries are not testing much and under counting the COVID deaths.
    There are lots of countries like that, either they aren't capable for financial/infrastructure reasons (I think India is one of those), and some for political reasons (at least one middle-east country).

    If not, then the US and Europe must have an above average amount of self entitled idiots.
    We certainly do

    Thankfully one of my neighbours who was very self-entitled has begun changing her ways, but I still see far too many people not taking account of the circumstances - as if masks and distance aren't worth bothering with. We are in a relatively safe region (low infection rates etc), but that doesn't mean people should be acting like everything is normal.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Masks? Masks? Pfft, how privileged. Hold my beer. Real men gargle Iodine.




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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    That would be NASTY!!
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Almost makes Listerine sound pleasant.

  19. #1499
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    I should know better than to enter this thread with a hot open mic conference call ... I almost did a spittake when I saw the iodine comment/.

    -tg
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Dr. Atlas is a White House adviser on the coronavirus. On Sunday, Twitter removed a tweet by Atlas, who posted: “Masks work? NO.” The social media platform stated the tweet violated the policy on coronavirus misinformation. Atlas followed his tweet with a series of misrepresentations about the science behind the effectiveness of masks in combating the pandemic.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/polit...rus/index.html

    He is the top advisor to Trump on the nation's virus response and he is also pushing the "herd immunity" approach which some liken to murder. The US is breaking infection records on a daily basis and winter is closing in. Trump wants to pretend it is almost over and his top advisor says masks don't work. Forty percent of Americans support Trump and his policies. I think this will indeed be a dark winter for the US.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Oct 25th, 2020 at 04:20 PM.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Biden's warning about a "dark winter" was clearly talking about the scenario where he wins the election.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    He's bland but still a lot better than the alternative.

    In other news, the evidence that you can be re-infected with Covid is growing. This feels like it's got to the point where it's really beyond doubt to me. The good news is that our ability to treat it is much better now (meaning it's lethality has dropped) and this does not necessarily preclude an effective vaccine (while most vaccines rely on anti body response there are other approaches which may prove to be more effective). It does men that anyone still arguing that we should just let it run until we naturally acquire herd immunity is condemning hundreds of thousands to death for no benefit though.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Biden's warning about a "dark winter" was clearly talking about the scenario where he wins the election.
    No that is absolutely NOT what he is talking about. He is talking about 80,000 people a day getting sick and that number projected to be 100,000 by March. He is referring to the people that support Trump scoffing at wearing masks affecting the responsible people around them. He is speaking to a president that is willing to turn his back on the health of Americans to get reelected. He means that while American health turns darker and darker Trump is standing on his balcony, after pulling off his mask, and playing the fiddle.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Oct 27th, 2020 at 06:37 AM.
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Technically, herd immunity in the US would result in millions of deaths. We're already at hundreds of thousands.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Technically, herd immunity in the US would result in millions of deaths. We're already at hundreds of thousands.
    The bobbleheading can lead you astray. Stop watching corporate media uncritically.


    Herd immunity does not cause deaths but exactly the opposite, it saves lives.

    Vaccination is all about achieving herd immunity, albeit artificially.

    It probably is true is that achieving herd immunity naturally any time soon probably would lead to deaths. How many nobody can really say. Most if not more deaths occur by dragging our feet, delaying infection until more people have comorbidities.

    Foot-dragging only accomplishes a few positive things. One is to avoid overtaxing health care resources by spreading the burden over time. Another is the hope that one or more effective vaccines may become cheaply available and widely distributed before infection rates ramp out of control. We have no idea who will die even with vaccination and therapies, it's not a perfect solution and many don't respond to treatment.

    But herd immunity is not the bogeyman here, Rachel Maddow notwithstanding.


    We have no way to know what path would be worse for a given nation or the world. Predicting for ourselves as individuals is even hairier. But there are only two possible endgames: herd immunity or extinction.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    But there are only two possible endgames: herd immunity or extinction.
    What about Trump's plan that it will just "go away". That's a third possibility...
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    herd immunity in the US would result in millions of deaths
    Yeah, I figured it probably was but didn't have time to look up the numbers so underplayed my point to avoid accidental hyperbole.

    achieving herd immunity naturally
    You're correct but I feel the "naturally" part has become implicit at this point. I did explicitly include it in my post 1502 but I feel that "achieving herd immunity" has become accepted shorthand for "allowing uncontrolled infection until we achieve herd immunity". That said, if you ever get the feeling that someone is using it as double speak then, yeah, shoot that straight down.

    the hope that one or more effective vaccines may become cheaply available and widely distributed before infection rates ramp out of control
    That's the primary argument as far as I'm concerned. We honestly don't know that our ability to manage this in a controlled fashion will be any better in 6 months time than it is now but it's extremely likely that it will be. There are some very promising vaccines going into the human testing phase now and our ability to treat Covid has improved massively in the last 6 month. I think putting some aspects of our lives for a year is a worthwhile sacrifice to avoid the massive number of additional deaths we would otherwise incur.

    It's not often that I find myself agreeing with Piers Morgan but I do think he was right when he tweeted this to his son: "Your great-grandmother spent five years of her 20s enduring World War 2 & then enjoyed another 70 more years of fun-packed life afterwards. You’ve done five months of mild inconvenience by comparison."

    I'm not convinced we're doing enough to support those whose livelihoods are affected by preventative measures though. I don't feel we are in the UK and I get the impression that you're doing less in the US. If ever there was a cause worth building up national debt for, this is it. To put it in perspective, it's estimated that the Iraq War added 2 Trillion to the US National Debt. In 2020 the National debt has risen by roughly 1 Trillion, which you can probably mostly ascribe to Covid. I know which I think was more worthy of spending.
    Last edited by FunkyDexter; Oct 27th, 2020 at 01:00 PM.
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    Super Moderator Shaggy Hiker's Avatar
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The thing about large numbers is that they are large. The US has a population of somewhat less than 400 million, which means that herd immunity through natural spread would have to have a mortality rate of a fraction of a percent to NOT kill at least a million. The seasonal flu has a mortality rate THAT high.

    We WERE doing quite a bit for those impacted, at least financially. For a lot of laid off workers, the unemployment benefits were higher than what they had been making, plus there was a one time stimulus of about $1,200 (decreasing the more you made, but even I got the full amount, so the threshold was fairly high). This had the effect that would be predicted by infusing a large amount of cash into the lower rungs of the economy (I can't decide how many metaphors I just mixed in that sentence). This resulted in a jolt to some parts of the economy at the same time that other parts slowed, and another group froze up altogether. This has created a pretty weird situation. Some parts are rocketing forwards, other parts are falling off a cliff.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Dr. John Campbell posted a video today that went over some studies related to one vaccine under testing and refinement.

    While there is some doubt (and there always is) he holds some hope. While antibodies may taper off quickly memory T-cells may be retained a lot longer (SARS-1 T-cells have lingered for 17 years and still going).

    It is far from a sure thing that infection recovery or vaccines can confer lasting immunity, but at least evidence hasn't ruled it out. There are several isolated reports of re-infection but each one examined closely has fallen apart.

  30. #1510
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Technically, it doesn't have to confer lasting immunity, it just has to drop spread to the point where it can snuff out. The virus needs to keep replicating for it to stick around. If you get even temporary immunity, it may be sufficient to make susceptible people far enough apart to stop the virus.

    Probably not, though.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Oh well, until something happens I suppose we'll all be stuck home watching Uncle Roger weejios.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Well according to Trump we can finally end this thread:

    The White House science office listed "ending the COVID-19 pandemic" as the top accomplishment of President Trump's first term.
    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...mic-as-us-hits

    I'm really glad I made it through the pandemic without getting it. I may go out to the bar tonight and celebrate.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
    Oh well, until something happens I suppose we'll all be stuck home watching Uncle Roger weejios.
    Bob Ross videos on YouTube.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Bob Ross videos on YouTube.
    Bob Ross used to be a Marine Corp Drill Sargent... he hated all the yelling... it's why he was so soft spoken...

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Actually, he was an Air Force master sergeant, not Marine Corps.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaggy Hiker View Post
    Actually, he was an Air Force master sergeant, not Marine Corps.
    Still did a lot of yelling...

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  37. #1517
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Despite the best efforts of neoliberals to set your hair afire again of late, there is some hopeful news:



    Great news for herd immunity, whether acquired naturally or through vaccination. Pretty much as Trump has been saying for months now. Whether it pans out or not only time will tell, but the science is looking very favorable.

    Not that the corrupt and complicit press wants you to know the facts, of course.

  38. #1518
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Technically, you have a larger burden of proof. If you post various web sites, you are talking to a group that is fairly well informed. At least enough to realize that the press has higher standards than the general internet. You can't make the case all that well that people should accept some random site than something that is held to some standard...ANY standard. You might as well start posting flat earth stuff. Perhaps we're all being duped into believing the world is round.
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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    The other thing we don't get is perspective, as in:

    Name:  sshot.png
Views: 39
Size:  14.7 KB

    But of course that's garbage too, since it wasn't delivered by a corporate news actor reading prepared lines off a monitor.

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    Re: Corona virus, China major city lockdowns, etc.

    Deleted...a little too personal.
    Last edited by TysonLPrice; Oct 29th, 2020 at 05:29 AM.
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